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太平洋证券投资策略:长风破浪会有时
Tai Ping Yang Zheng Quan· 2025-09-22 07:41
Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is currently facing short-term fluctuations due to trading structure and risk appetite, but the long-term bull market logic relies on a trend of sustained capital inflow, suggesting that adding positions during pullbacks is a better strategy [1][12] - The A-share market is entering a period of consolidation, with two main factors influencing this judgment: the technology sector, a key driver of the bull market, is experiencing a relatively crowded chip structure, and the marginal weakening of the economic fundamentals makes it difficult for the market style to shift to low-position consumer and cyclical sectors [1][12] Group 2 - The report highlights a decline in market profitability, with the technology sector's chip structure becoming relatively crowded, necessitating a time-for-space approach. Since the market's rise starting June 23, the index has increased by 18.18%, with the TMT sector contributing 42% [2][13] - Current unfavorable factors for the technology sector include: 1) a decrease in market profitability and overall risk appetite, with only 32% of stocks rising this week, marking a low point in this rally; 2) the TMT sector's trading volume has reached 37%, and historically, when this figure exceeds 40%, a pullback typically follows; 3) the ChiNext and STAR 50 indices are showing signs of divergence in volume and price; 4) the "calendar effect" before the National Day indicates a lower probability of index gains, with a 60% chance of decline in the five trading days leading up to the holiday [2][13] Group 3 - Economic data has shown marginal weakening, making it difficult to shift styles to consumer and cyclical sectors. In August, production, investment, consumption, and exports all weakened compared to July. The September LPR remains unchanged, with no intention to cut rates. CPI in August was -0.4% year-on-year, and PPI was -2.9%, indicating a narrowing decline [3][14] - The report suggests that the long-term bull market is not yet over, with indicators such as equity risk premium (ERP), the rate of economic securitization, and the ongoing increase in deposits at non-bank financial institutions indicating significant upside potential for A-shares [3][14] Group 4 - The report anticipates that the narrative of a soft landing and re-inflation in the U.S. economy will return in the fourth quarter. Despite recent trade tensions and disappointing non-farm payroll reports, employment data is expected to be revised upward, and the economy is showing signs of steady growth, with the second quarter GDP growth revised to 3.3% [4][27] - The report notes that core inflation remains sticky, with indicators showing a potential for re-inflation in the fourth quarter. The housing market is expected to contribute to inflationary pressures as mortgage rates decline and loan application activity rises [4][27] Group 5 - Compared to the U.S., the Eurozone faces greater fiscal challenges, which may lead to a rebound in the dollar index and make U.S. stocks the best choice among major asset classes. The Eurozone's economic data has been weaker than that of the U.S., and the euro's significant appreciation has reduced export competitiveness [6][44] - The report indicates that speculative long positions in the euro have reached historically high levels, while short positions remain low, suggesting that there is still considerable room for adjustment in the trading structure [6][44]