（来源：泽平宏观展望） 文 任泽平 最近A股创十年新高，验证了我2024年牛市的预测，大家都摩拳擦掌、热情高涨。 但是，今天我要给你七条建议，有的你可能没听说过，有的你可能会觉得老生常谈，但你仔细听，听一个20年经验、大满贯冠军分析师的真心实话，或许 能够在关键时候帮到你。 市场有涨有落，有其规律性，有其魅力，但也有其残酷性，对此要有充分了解，保持良好的心态，不要影响正常的生活和工作。修炼心性，提高认知，尊 重市场，才能享受过程。 1、理性看待市场波动，尊重市场规律，切忌被情绪左右 市场总是充满不确定性，不要被涨跌带着情绪走，在市场中人性的贪婪、恐慌等情绪都会被无限放大，由此极易做出错误的决策，一震荡就出局，一涨就 加仓回来，反复折腾，常见但结果往往不好。 要潜心做好宏观、行业、公司的基本面分析。 20年的经验告诉我：行情总是在绝望中重生，争议中上涨，狂欢中崩盘。我们要在炮火中挺进，在烟花中撤退。 2、闲钱做配置，忌赌徒心态，不盲目加杠杆 确保不会影响短期生活质量，保持从容、体面和耐心。 3、牛市不意味能赚钱，忌追涨杀跌、频繁操作、反复折腾 格雷厄姆有句名言："牛市是普通投资者亏损的主要原因"。牛市会让人产生 ...

截至收盘，中证A500指数上涨1.0%，中证A50指数上涨0.9%，中证A100指数上涨0.8%。 开源证券认为，A股当下处在牛市逻辑当中，不要因为短期的波动和调整就动摇对积极行情的信心，本轮牛市的核心驱动力没有显著收紧和转向前维持看 多。 【 ///// // // // // l女恒到 证券组成,覆盖46个中证三级 行业,反映大盘核心龙头上市 公司证券的整体表现 OL 8 中证A50ETF易方达 低费率 跟踪中证A50指数 该指数由各行业龙头上市公司 中市值最大的50只股票组成, 覆盖50个中证三级行业,行业 分布均衡,超大盘风格突出 ▽┣ 该指数 注3: 低费率产品,其管理费率0.15%/年,托管费率0.05%/年。 注4:基金有风险,投资须谨慎,详阅基金法律文件及交易所、结算公司等相关业务规则。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 0 1 注1:"该指数"指各上述基金产品具体跟踪的指数。数据来自Wind，指数涨跌幅截至2026年2月25日 润,该估值指标和企业盈利紧密相关,适用于盈利相对稳定且受周期影响较小的行业。估值分位指该ł 日/可查询估值记 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing interest in cash flow assets amid market fluctuations, with nearly 1 billion yuan net inflow into cash flow ETF (159399) over the past 10 days [1] - Huachuang Securities points out that the current A-share bull market exhibits high Sharpe characteristics, attributed to continuous shareholder returns exceeding financing scale for four consecutive years, and a reversal in the investment and financing landscape leading to high Sharpe ratios for stocks [1] - The stable free cash flow generation capability of A-shares, with the proportion of non-financial free cash flow remaining stable at 20-25%, is expected to reduce reliance on financing environments and short-term economic cycles, thereby lowering price volatility [1] Group 2 - The FTSE cash flow index, which the cash flow ETF (159399) tracks, has outperformed the CSI Dividend Index and the CSI 300 Index for nine consecutive years from 2016 to 2024 [1] - The cash flow ETF (159399) focuses on large and mid-cap stocks, with a higher proportion of central state-owned enterprises compared to similar cash flow indices, allowing for monthly dividend assessments [1] - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to the cash flow ETF (159399) as corporate profitability is expected to improve with the completion of the transition from old to new growth drivers, and the drag from real estate nearing its end [1]

2月10日，和讯投顾王海洋表示，近期我们一直着重强调虚拟经济的机会，反复提醒年前要关注并潜伏 虚拟经济板块。这不，今天虚拟经济大幅上涨，涨幅榜几乎被虚拟经济相关个股占据。 可以明确的是，2026年将是A股牛市最肥美的一年。今日涨幅榜的情况也印证了我们此前判断，年后大 概率启动的虚拟经济板块，在年前就已提前启动。所以，我们一直坚定看多，大家切勿因一根阴线或小 调整就过度恐慌。目前A股处于牛市阶段，趋势向上，且已度过发育阶段，大盘随时可能掀起一波强势 行情，冲击4500点上方。当下我们该做的，就是保持耐心，选好投资配置，静静等待指数大级别行情的 到来。 再看大盘，今日呈现缩量震荡态势，最终收星。成交额与成交量大幅萎缩，成交量达5500.2亿，几乎可 视为地量，地量信号已然显现。当前大盘处于压力位，若想继续上涨，要么进行小级别回踩，要么低开 直接化解调整风险。 今年年初大盘有效突破4000点后，在4141 - 4190区间调整，是为最后一次整固。近期量能明显萎缩，地 量信号很快会出现，如今地量已然到来。后续走势方面，鉴于今日大盘未涨未跌，且昨晚美股表现一 般，指数基本维持震荡。若大盘低开，大概率会继续反弹；若高开， ...

行业研究丨深度报告丨投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Title] 轮动对比视角复盘，当前非银子行业如何择时选 股？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 历史上 A 股牛市中保险及券商表现如何？不同类型牛市下表现何异？节奏及持续性如何？站 在当前如何展望？我们梳理了 2012 年以来几次 A 股上涨周期中保险及券商指数涨跌及行业相 对表现，并进一步梳理一级行业月度涨跌轮动以探究行情节奏，最后结合当前时点进行分析展 望。我们认为当前估值上非银进入配置性价比区间，择时应合理配合政策及监管节奏增配，配 置上推荐高弹性保险与金融 IT。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490519080007 SFC：BUV596 吴一凡 盛晓双 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 投资银行业与经纪业 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 轮动对比视角复盘，当前非银子行业如何择时 2] 选股？ [Table_Summary2] 历史 ...

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic review indicates that Shenzhen's GDP is expected to grow by 5.5% in 2025, achieving the anticipated growth target, with foreign trade increasing by 1.4% despite a decline in exports due to a high base in 2024 [7] - The strategy report highlights that A-share earnings are stabilizing, driven by cost reductions and the new economy outpacing the old economy, with a projected 10% growth in A-share earnings for 2026 under neutral assumptions [8][10] Industry and Company - The North Exchange's January 2026 report shows a significant increase in market activity, with a total of 292 listed companies and a total market value of 936.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.7% increase in total market value [11] - In the electric power equipment sector, domestic demand is expected to remain strong, with a focus on high-voltage direct current (HVDC) and smart meters, as the State Grid's fixed asset investment is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the previous five-year plan [14][15][17] - Yum China reported a 22% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q4 2025, with total revenue reaching $2.823 billion, driven by a 34% increase in delivery sales [18][19][21]

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic review indicates that Shenzhen's GDP is expected to grow by 5.5% in 2025, with foreign trade increasing by 1.4% despite a decline in exports due to a high base in 2024 [7] - The A-share market is projected to see a 10% profit growth in 2026, driven by cost reductions and the rise of new economy sectors outpacing traditional sectors [8][10] Industry and Company - The North Exchange saw a significant increase in trading activity in January 2026, with a total of 292 listed companies and a market capitalization of 936.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.7% increase [11] - The electric power equipment industry is expected to benefit from strong domestic demand and overseas expansion opportunities, particularly in high-voltage direct current (HVDC) technology [14][15] - Yum China reported a 22% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q4 2025, with total revenue reaching $2.823 billion, driven by a 34% increase in delivery sales [19][21] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-voltage direct current and smart meter sectors, recommending companies like Pinggao Electric and XJ Electric for their growth potential [17] - Anticipate continued overseas expansion for Chinese companies in the electric power sector, suggesting attention to companies like Sifang Co. and Mingyang Smart Energy [17]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the A-share market is primarily driven by external liquidity shocks and internal capital withdrawal, with a significant impact from the hawkish stance of the new Federal Reserve chairman [2]. Group 1: Market Decline Reasons - The core trigger for the market drop is the hawkish expectation of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction, leading to a global liquidity repricing [2]. - The A-share market, which has been largely liquidity-driven since the bull market began on September 24, 2024, is particularly sensitive to changes in policy expectations [2]. - Domestic factors, including reduced leverage by exchanges and significant ETF redemptions, have further suppressed market sentiment, with a record net redemption of 780 billion yuan in January [2]. Group 2: A-share Market Outlook - The current pricing of the A-share market reflects a certain bias against the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with expectations that the new chairman will balance interest rate cuts with the realities of dollar liquidity [3]. - As the market approaches a reasonable valuation, regulatory goals for cooling the market will likely be achieved, leading to a potential shift towards more positive policy [3]. - Historical patterns suggest a strong likelihood of a spring rally between the Lunar New Year and the Two Sessions, with a historical probability of around 90% for market gains during this period [3]. - Defensive attributes are expected from undervalued domestic assets during periods of external volatility, as evidenced by the resilience of banking and food and beverage sectors [3]. - Following stabilization of market sentiment, there is potential for continued investment in AI technology and overseas manufacturing, alongside increased allocation to high-dividend sectors like banking and consumer goods to enhance portfolio resilience [3].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：明察宏观 文 财信研究院宏观团队 李沫 胡文艳 伍超明 核心观点 一、价比量更重要：经济、政策以及资产配置新瞄点 其一，价格直接牵动企业盈利与居民收入，是激活"价格-盈利-收入-消费"内循环的关键枢纽，比GDP等 总量指标更能反映经济内生活力。其二，当前"量增价缩"格局不可持续，推动价格回升至合理区间已是 宏观政策必然选择，否则将侵蚀供需两端并阻碍新质生产力发展。其三，A股市场未来的走势，核心在 于建立"价格-盈利-信心"正向循环，价格回升既是启动盈利修复的关键，也是稳定市场预期的压舱石。 二、2026年价格走势分析 （一）趋势研判：2026年物价回升趋势明确。从宏观视角看，供需缺口趋于收敛、M1增速触底回升、 居民就业筑底改善以及产能周期有望上行等四大领先指标，共同为物价回升奠定基础。从价格构成看， 2026年CPI与PPI的"翘尾因素"将显著高于上年；同时"十五五"开局之年，扩大内需政策与供给侧"反内 卷"政策有望形成合力，共同支撑"新涨价因素"，推动价格实现温和回升。 （二）核心判断：上游主导PPI回升，预计2026年二季度 ...

Group 1 - The core pattern of A-share bull markets follows an alternating cycle of "upward phases and consolidation phases," with long-term downward phases being very rare [1][5] - Different types of bull markets exhibit variations in their phase combinations, with a comprehensive bull market consisting of "3 consolidation phases and 4 upward phases," while a structural bull market consists of "2 consolidation phases and 3 upward phases" [1][5] - Historical differences in the second consolidation phase between comprehensive and structural bull markets are evident in terms of retracement magnitude, duration, market style, and activity level [6] Group 2 - Confirmation of a bull market transition from the second consolidation phase to the third upward phase requires both technical and policy validation [2][6] - The current bull market aligns more closely with structural bull market characteristics, as the second consolidation phase has shown "small retracement magnitude and long duration," which is distinct from comprehensive bull markets [7] - The current bull market may have already transitioned into the third upward phase, supported by technical signals and positive macro policies [3][7] Group 3 - Based on historical patterns, the initial phase of the third upward segment may reach a temporary high between 4200-4300 points, followed by a potential retracement that stabilizes at the upper boundary of the second consolidation phase [4][8] - The upper boundary of the second consolidation phase serves as a critical support level, indicating strong capital support and psychological backing for the market [8] - Future monitoring should focus on the pressure release and capital support within the 4200-4300 point range, as well as the effectiveness of support at the upper boundary of the second consolidation phase [8]