美国大豆出口
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国投期货农产品日报-20251127
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-11-27 12:02
Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The domestic soybean market features high - quality products commanding high prices, with the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans fluctuating. Attention should be paid to the US soybean export situation in the short - term and the South American soybean产区 weather in the medium - term [2]. - The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the crush volume has increased, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level. Wait for the signing of the new China - US economic and trade agreement and track its implementation, and pay attention to South American weather changes [3]. - The overseas supply - demand situation of palm oil is still weak, but the marginal negative factors have eased. The soybean oil market shows a trend of reducing positions and rebounding. Pay attention to the US soybean price, export situation in the short - term and South American weather in the medium - term [4]. - The rapeseed futures show a pattern of meal rising and oil falling. The focus is on the clearance and crushing of Australian rapeseeds. It is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards the rapeseed sector [6]. - The corn futures are oscillating strongly. Pay attention to the signing of the China - US trade agreement, the selling progress of new corn in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat [7]. - The pig industry's capacity reduction continues. The pig price is weakly adjusted. The pig price may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. - The egg market trades on the expectation of a decline in future inventory. The medium - term supply pressure of the egg industry is expected to ease [9]. Summary by Category Douyi - The domestic soybean futures contract is actively reducing positions, with price oscillations and stable spot market quotations. The new - crop domestic soybean market adheres to the principle of high - quality products commanding high prices. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans fluctuates. Monitor the domestic soybean spot market and policy guidance [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The US soybean market is closed for Thanksgiving. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the crush volume has increased, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level. Wait for the signing of the China - US economic and trade agreement and track its implementation, and pay attention to South American weather changes. Look for opportunities to go long at low prices [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The high - frequency data of the Malaysian palm oil export market is still poor, and the inventory in the Indonesian market increased slightly in September. The marginal negative factors in the palm oil market have eased. The soybean oil market shows a trend of reducing positions and rebounding. Pay attention to the US soybean price, export situation in the short - term and South American weather in the medium - term [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed futures show a pattern of meal rising and oil falling. The focus is on the clearance and crushing of Australian rapeseeds. The buying of ships is expected in the future. It is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards the rapeseed sector [6]. Corn - The corn futures are oscillating strongly. The spot price of corn in the northern ports is firm and rising, and farmers are reluctant to sell. The downstream corn inventory is low, and the willingness to replenish inventory has increased. Wait for the signing of the China - US trade agreement, and pay attention to the selling progress of new corn in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat [7]. Live Pigs - The inventory of breeding sows decreased in October 2025. The pig industry's capacity reduction continues. The pig price is weakly adjusted. The pig price may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - The egg futures have significantly reduced positions, and the prices of the January contract and the distant - month July/August contracts have risen significantly. The medium - term supply pressure of the egg industry is expected to ease [9].
“中国订单量仍为零”,美大豆协会主席喊话特朗普:中国市场至关重要,需立刻行动!
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-20 09:12
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean industry is facing significant challenges due to zero orders from China, which is the largest export market for U.S. soybeans, highlighting the critical need for strong markets and opportunities [1] Industry Summary - The U.S. soybean sector is currently in the harvest season, but the lack of orders from China poses a warning sign for the industry [1] - There are approximately 500,000 soybean farmers in the U.S., and the Chinese market is essential for their livelihoods [1] Call to Action - Immediate action is required to address the situation, as expressed by the president of the American Soybean Association, who emphasized the need for access to the Chinese market rather than mere discussions [1]