1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is influenced by the stalemate in Sino - US trade negotiations, and the soybean meal is expected to maintain a volatile pattern. The US soybean market is also waiting for further guidance on Sino - US tariff negotiations and the harvest weather in US soybean - producing areas. [10][13] - The domestic soybean meal market may return to a volatile pattern in the short term, affected by factors such as the arrival of imported soybeans, downstream demand, and Sino - US trade relations. [10] - The price of soybeans is affected by factors such as the weather in US soybean - producing areas, Sino - US trade tariffs, and the supply and demand situation at home and abroad. [11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Prompt The report focuses on the soybean meal market from September 15 - 19, highlighting the impact of Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions on the market. [1] 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations remain deadlocked, and the US soybean market is waiting for further guidance. The domestic soybean meal market may return to a volatile pattern in the short term. [13] - The arrival of imported soybeans in September remains at a relatively high level, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has increased. [10][13] 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertainty in the weather in US soybean - producing areas. [14] - Bearish factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in September, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans. [14] Soybeans - Bullish factors: Support from the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans. [15] - Bearish factors: High yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic production of new - season soybeans. [15] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Weather**: The weather in some US soybean - producing areas is currently normal, but there are still short - term uncertainties, with a neutral or bullish outlook. [9] - **Import Cost**: The price of US soybeans is volatile, and the import cost is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with a neutral or bullish outlook. [9] - **Oil Mill Pressing**: The demand for soybean meal is expected to be good in the short term, and the oil mill's pressing volume remains high, with a bearish outlook. [9] - **Transaction**: The enthusiasm for downstream forward stocking has increased, and the market transaction is expected to increase, with a neutral or bullish outlook. [9] - **Oil Mill Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has returned to a medium - high level, and it is expected to remain high, with a bearish outlook. [9] 3.5 Position Data The long positions of the main contract in the soybean meal market have increased, but the funds have flowed out, showing a bullish signal. [10] 3.6 Soybean & Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand Inventory Structure) US Soybean Market The US soybean market is affected by Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions. The expected high yield of US soybeans suppresses the upward space of the market, but the uncertainty of weather and trade relations still affects the market. [33] Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - **Arrival of Imported Soybeans**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in September has decreased from the high level, but it is still relatively high year - on - year. [36] - **Oil Mill Pressing and Inventory**: The soybean inventory in oil mills is at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory has increased slightly. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have decreased from the high level. [37][39] - **Soybean Meal Transaction**: The procurement of the domestic downstream has decreased slightly, but the提货 volume remains high. [45] - **Pig Farming Inventory**: The pig inventory is on the rise, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and has decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price has recently declined again, and the profit of pig farming has deteriorated. [47][49][53] Downstream Demand The demand for soybean meal in September is a key factor to watch, but the price is mainly determined by the supply side. [55] 3.7 Trading Strategies Soybean Meal - **Futures**: The US soybeans are expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and the soybean meal is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2900 - 3100, and short - term range trading is recommended. [17] - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money put options. [19] Soybean - **Futures**: The A2511 contract of soybean is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3800 - 4000, and short - term range trading is recommended. [20] - **Options**: Wait and see. [20] 3.8 Meal Market Structure - The basis of soybean meal has narrowed slightly, and the spot price is relatively stable while the futures price has declined. [58] - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has oscillated at a low level. [60] 3.9 Technical Analysis Soybean - The soybean futures are weakly volatile, affected by the US soybean trend and the relatively stable domestic soybean spot price. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in a volatile adjustment stage. [65] Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures have rebounded after reaching the bottom and are in a volatile range, affected by the US soybean and rapeseed meal trends and domestic demand expectations. Technical indicators are also in a volatile adjustment stage. [67] 3.10 Next Week's Concerns - The most important factors are the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas, Sino - US trade relations and the follow - up of the tariff war, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China. [70] - The secondary important factors are the domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of oil mills, and downstream procurement. [71] - Other important factors include macro - economic factors and international conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts. [71]