Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2740 - 2800. The domestic soybean meal is influenced by multiple factors, with a neutral view in the short - term and a tendency to fluctuate weakly [8][9]. - The soybean A2605 is predicted to fluctuate between 4080 - 4180. Domestic soybeans are affected by various factors such as US - China trade and import volumes, with a neutral view in the short - term [10][11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2605 fluctuates in the 2740 - 2800 range. Influenced by factors like US - China trade and South American weather, it has a neutral outlook. The basis is positive, but inventory, the position of the price relative to the 20 - day moving average, and the main positions are bearish. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [9]. - The soybean A2605 fluctuates between 4080 - 4180. Affected by US - China trade and import volumes, it has a neutral view. The basis is neutral, while inventory, the price position relative to the 20 - day moving average, and the main positions are bearish [11]. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on US - China tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are uncertainties in the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather. The domestic import soybean arrival volume decreased in December, with high soybean inventory in oil mills. The demand for soybean meal rebounded at a low level in December, and soybean meal is expected to return to range - bound fluctuations [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors For Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary agreement on US - China trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; there is no pressure on the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean production areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of domestic imported soybeans remained high in December; South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [15]. For Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [16]. - Bearish factors: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price of soybeans [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - The global soybean supply - demand balance sheet shows the changes in harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. from 2015 - 2024 [32]. - The domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet shows the changes in harvest area, inventory, production, import volume, etc. from 2015 - 2024 [33]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions of soybean meal decreased, and funds flowed out. The main short positions of soybeans increased, and funds flowed in [9][11]. Other Data and Information - The trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from December 17 - 25, 2025 are presented, along with the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [17]. - The futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal from December 18 - 25, 2025 are provided [19]. - The warehouse receipt statistics of soybeans and soybean meal from December 16 - 25, 2025 are given [21]. - The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24), the US (2024), Brazil (2024/25, 2025/26), and Argentina (2024/25, 2025/26) are detailed [34][35][39][41][42][43]. - The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from May - December 2025 are presented, including planting area, yield, production, etc. [44]. - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [45]. - The monthly arrival volume of imported soybeans from 2020 - 2025 is shown, with a slight increase in December 2025 compared to the same period [47]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal inventory decreased from a high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills increased to a high level, and the demand for stockpiling increased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained relatively high, and the soybean meal production in October increased year - on - year [48][50][52]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated downward following US soybeans, and the margin on the futures market fluctuated slightly [53]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly. The domestic pig farming profit fluctuated slightly [55][57][59][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is influenced by the stalemate in Sino - US trade negotiations, and the soybean meal is expected to maintain a volatile pattern. The US soybean market is also waiting for further guidance on Sino - US tariff negotiations and the harvest weather in US soybean - producing areas. [10][13] - The domestic soybean meal market may return to a volatile pattern in the short term, affected by factors such as the arrival of imported soybeans, downstream demand, and Sino - US trade relations. [10] - The price of soybeans is affected by factors such as the weather in US soybean - producing areas, Sino - US trade tariffs, and the supply and demand situation at home and abroad. [11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Prompt The report focuses on the soybean meal market from September 15 - 19, highlighting the impact of Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions on the market. [1] 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations remain deadlocked, and the US soybean market is waiting for further guidance. The domestic soybean meal market may return to a volatile pattern in the short term. [13] - The arrival of imported soybeans in September remains at a relatively high level, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has increased. [10][13] 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertainty in the weather in US soybean - producing areas. [14] - Bearish factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in September, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans. [14] Soybeans - Bullish factors: Support from the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans. [15] - Bearish factors: High yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic production of new - season soybeans. [15] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Weather**: The weather in some US soybean - producing areas is currently normal, but there are still short - term uncertainties, with a neutral or bullish outlook. [9] - **Import Cost**: The price of US soybeans is volatile, and the import cost is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with a neutral or bullish outlook. [9] - **Oil Mill Pressing**: The demand for soybean meal is expected to be good in the short term, and the oil mill's pressing volume remains high, with a bearish outlook. [9] - **Transaction**: The enthusiasm for downstream forward stocking has increased, and the market transaction is expected to increase, with a neutral or bullish outlook. [9] - **Oil Mill Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has returned to a medium - high level, and it is expected to remain high, with a bearish outlook. [9] 3.5 Position Data The long positions of the main contract in the soybean meal market have increased, but the funds have flowed out, showing a bullish signal. [10] 3.6 Soybean & Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand Inventory Structure) US Soybean Market The US soybean market is affected by Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions. The expected high yield of US soybeans suppresses the upward space of the market, but the uncertainty of weather and trade relations still affects the market. [33] Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - **Arrival of Imported Soybeans**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in September has decreased from the high level, but it is still relatively high year - on - year. [36] - **Oil Mill Pressing and Inventory**: The soybean inventory in oil mills is at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory has increased slightly. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have decreased from the high level. [37][39] - **Soybean Meal Transaction**: The procurement of the domestic downstream has decreased slightly, but the提货 volume remains high. [45] - **Pig Farming Inventory**: The pig inventory is on the rise, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and has decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price has recently declined again, and the profit of pig farming has deteriorated. [47][49][53] Downstream Demand The demand for soybean meal in September is a key factor to watch, but the price is mainly determined by the supply side. [55] 3.7 Trading Strategies Soybean Meal - **Futures**: The US soybeans are expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and the soybean meal is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2900 - 3100, and short - term range trading is recommended. [17] - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money put options. [19] Soybean - **Futures**: The A2511 contract of soybean is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3800 - 4000, and short - term range trading is recommended. [20] - **Options**: Wait and see. [20] 3.8 Meal Market Structure - The basis of soybean meal has narrowed slightly, and the spot price is relatively stable while the futures price has declined. [58] - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has oscillated at a low level. [60] 3.9 Technical Analysis Soybean - The soybean futures are weakly volatile, affected by the US soybean trend and the relatively stable domestic soybean spot price. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in a volatile adjustment stage. [65] Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures have rebounded after reaching the bottom and are in a volatile range, affected by the US soybean and rapeseed meal trends and domestic demand expectations. Technical indicators are also in a volatile adjustment stage. [67] 3.10 Next Week's Concerns - The most important factors are the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas, Sino - US trade relations and the follow - up of the tariff war, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China. [70] - The secondary important factors are the domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of oil mills, and downstream procurement. [71] - Other important factors include macro - economic factors and international conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts. [71]