1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For bean meal M2605, it is expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960. The US soybeans are oscillating downward due to increased planting area and technical adjustment. The domestic bean meal is affected by the US soybeans and sufficient supply expectations. Although China's continuous procurement of US soybeans supports the short - term US soybean market, the completion of procurement volume and good weather in South America limit its upside. The domestic bean meal will enter an oscillating and slightly stronger pattern in the short term [9]. - For soybeans A2605, it is predicted to oscillate between 4560 and 4660. The US soybeans are in an oscillating state, waiting for the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the weather in South American harvesting areas. The domestic soybeans are affected by the US soybeans, the Middle - East conflict, and short - term demand, and will maintain a high - level oscillation. The purchase volume of US soybeans by China is uncertain, and the good weather in South America restricts the upside of the US soybean market. Domestic soybean storage and cost - performance advantages support the bottom, but the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production and spot prices limit the upside [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Bean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate between 2900 - 2960, and soybeans A2605 between 4560 - 4660. The market is influenced by factors such as US soybean planting area, China - US trade, South American weather, and domestic supply and demand [9] [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the purchase volume and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly in the short term, waiting for further information on South American soybean harvesting, import arrivals, and China - US trade negotiations. - The domestic import of soybeans in the first quarter continues to decline, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remains high in March. With normal weather in South American soybean planting, the bean meal has returned to an oscillating range. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to low expectations of pig replenishment, suppressing the price of bean meal in March. The impact of US soybeans and weak demand for bean meal coexist. - The high inventory of domestic oil - mill bean meal, potential weather speculation in South American soybean areas, and the preliminary China - US trade agreement make the bean meal oscillate slightly stronger in the short term. It awaits further clarity on the Middle - East situation, South American soybean production, and China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bean meal bullish factors: preliminary China - US trade agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; no pressure on the inventory of domestic oil - mill bean meal; uncertain weather in South American soybean areas. - Bean meal bearish factors: high volume of imported soybeans in March; expected high yield of South American soybeans with normal weather. - Soybean bullish factors: cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations. - Soybean bearish factors: high yield of Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese procurement; expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppresses prices [14] [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Transaction data**: From March 20 to March 30, the average transaction price of bean meal decreased from 3396 to 3276, and the trading volume fluctuated. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal decreased from 2440 to 2330, and the trading volume was relatively low. The price difference between bean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [16]. - **Price data**: From March 23 to March 30, the prices of soybean futures and bean meal futures generally showed a downward trend, while the spot prices of soybeans and bean meal also decreased [18]. - **Warehouse receipt data**: From March 19 to March 30, the number of bean - one, bean - two, and bean - meal warehouse receipts decreased [20]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory over the years. For example, the global soybean output has generally increased from 2016 - 2025, and the domestic soybean import volume has also been at a relatively high level [32] [33]. 3.5 Position Data - No information provided in the content. 3.6 Other Market Conditions - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans has increased from a low level, also both month - on - month and year - on - year. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased, and the bean - meal inventory has returned to a normal level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains at a relatively high level, but the bean - meal output in February has slightly decreased year - on - year. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have slightly decreased, and the short - term stocking demand is good. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has decreased following the oscillation of US soybeans, and the on - paper profit has fluctuated slightly. - The pig inventory has slightly increased year - on - year, while the sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and slightly month - on - month. The pig price has continued to decline recently, and the average slaughter weight has slightly decreased. The proportion of large pigs in the country has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has fluctuated slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit loss has expanded, and the pig - grain ratio and feed - meat ratio have dropped to a low level [45] [47] [50] [52] [54] [56] [58] [60] [62] [64] [66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors such as the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, South American soybean harvest weather, and the situation in the Middle East. The market is in a state of shock and waiting for further guidance [10][11][13]. - In the short term, the domestic soybean and soybean meal futures markets are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern, and the specific trading strategies are provided [16][17]. - The pig farming industry is currently facing a situation of increasing losses, and the demand for soybean meal is relatively weak in the short term [54][58]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Tips No relevant content provided. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is in a short - term strong shock [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in the first quarter, and the soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a relatively high level in March. The soybean meal market has returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment, and the demand for soybean meal in March has remained low, suppressing the price expectations of soybean meal [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Due to the possibility of weather speculation in South American soybean producing areas and the impact of the preliminary China - US trade agreement, the soybean meal market is short - term shock - strong, waiting for the further clarification of the Middle East situation, the determination of South American soybean production, and the further guidance of the follow - up China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal** - **Bullish factors**: The preliminary China - US trade agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still variables in the weather of South American soybean producing areas [14]. - **Bearish factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in March; the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is advancing, and South American soybeans are expected to be in a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [14]. - **Soybeans** - **Bullish factors**: The increase in the cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in the demand for domestic soybeans supports the price expectations of domestic soybeans [15]. - **Bearish factors**: The preliminary China - US trade agreement leads to an increase in China's purchases of US soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectations of soybeans [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2016 to 2025, the harvest area, production, and total supply of global soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [19]. - **USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months**: The planting area, yield, production, and other indicators of US soybeans have changed slightly in different months, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans is also provided [20]. - **US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in 2024**: The sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, and other progress of US soybeans in 2024 are compared with those of the same period last year and the five - year average [21][22][23]. - **Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The planting and harvest progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in different years are presented, showing the comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [24][25][26][27][28]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided. 3.6 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand Inventory Structure) - **US Soybean Market Situation**: The US soybean market is short - term strong - shock, affected by China's purchases and bio - fuel policies, but the good harvest expectations of South American soybeans suppress the upside of the market. The short - and medium - term trends are mainly driven by the harvest weather and listing situation of South American soybeans and the implementation of the China - US trade agreement [32]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain**: - **Imported Soybean Arrival**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans has rebounded from a low level and increased year - on - year [35]. - **Oil Mill Pressing and Inventory**: The soybean inventory of oil mills has decreased slightly, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a normal level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains at a relatively high level, and the soybean meal production in February decreased slightly year - on - year [38][40]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction**: The downstream procurement has become lighter, and the提货 volume is at a high level in the same period of history [46]. - **Pig Farming Inventory**: The pig inventory has increased slightly year - on - year, the sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price has continued to fall recently, and the average slaughter weight has decreased slightly. The proportion of large pigs has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has fluctuated slightly. The pig farming profit has expanded losses, and the pig - grain ratio and feed - to - meat ratio have fallen to a low level [48][50][52][54][56]. 3.7粕类市场结构 - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Basis Analysis**: The soybean meal futures have fallen in shock, the spot is relatively weak, and the premium of the spot at a high level has narrowed [61]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Price Difference**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference between the 2605 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is at a relatively high level [63]. 3.8 Technical Analysis - **Soybean Technical Analysis**: The soybean futures have fallen in shock, affected by the interaction between the US soybean trend and the relatively strong domestic soybean spot. The KDJ and MACD indicators are in a technical adjustment stage, and the soybean futures are expected to return to a range - bound pattern and wait for new guidance [68]. - **Soybean Meal Technical Analysis**: The soybean meal futures have fallen in shock, affected by the US soybean trend and the short - term weakening of domestic demand. The KDJ and MACD indicators are in a technical adjustment stage, and the soybean meal futures are expected to return to a range - bound pattern and wait for new guidance [71]. 3.9 Next Week's Concerns - **Most Important**: The harvest weather and export situation of South American soybean producing areas, the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, the arrival of imported soybeans in China and the operation of oil mills [73]. - **Second - Important**: The domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills and the downstream procurement situation [73]. - **Third - Important**: Macroeconomic factors and the conflicts between the US and Iran, Russia and Ukraine [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **For Bean Meal (M2605)**: It will oscillate between 2920 and 2980. The U.S. soybeans are narrowly fluctuating, and the domestic bean meal has bottomed out and rebounded. In the short - term, it has entered a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, affected by the U.S. soybean trend and the short - term easing of the Middle East conflict [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2605)**: It will fluctuate between 4540 and 4640. The domestic soybeans are oscillating and falling back, but the short - term good demand supports the market, and it will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Not provided in the content 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - U.S. tariff negotiations is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans. The U.S. soybean market is in a short - term strong oscillation, waiting for further guidance on South American soybean harvesting and Sino - U.S. trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China continues to decline in the first quarter, and the soybean inventory in oil mills remains at a relatively high level in March. The bean meal has returned to range oscillation [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - raising profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for bean meal in March remains low, suppressing the price expectation of bean meal [13]. - The bean meal inventory in domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Affected by the possible weather speculation in South American soybean producing areas and the preliminary agreement on Sino - U.S. trade negotiations, the bean meal is short - term oscillating and slightly stronger, waiting for further clarification on the Middle East situation, the determination of South American soybean production, and the follow - up of Sino - U.S. trade negotiations [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Bean Meal - **Likely to Rise**: The preliminary Sino - U.S. trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans; the bean meal inventory in domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still variables in the weather of South American soybean producing areas [14]. - **Likely to Fall**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains at a relatively high level in March; with the progress of Brazilian soybean harvesting, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [14]. Soybeans - **Likely to Rise**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price expectation [15]. - **Likely to Fall**: Brazil's soybean harvest is good, and China increases the purchase of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 3180, with a basis of 228, showing a premium over the futures. The oil mill's bean meal inventory is 67.05 tons, a 6.89% increase compared to last week and a 10.5% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4740, with a basis of 113, showing a premium over the futures. The oil mill's soybean inventory is 511.57 tons, a 6.75% decrease compared to last week and a 103.17% increase year - on - year [11]. - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2016 - 2025, the harvest area, output, and total supply generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated between 17.97% - 23.05% [32]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2016 - 2025, the harvest area, output, and total supply also showed an upward trend, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated between 18.41% - 33.01% [33]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2940 - 3000. The market is influenced by factors such as the rise of US soybeans, the short - term easing of the Middle - East conflict, and the situation of China's soybean procurement. It is currently in a short - term shock - strengthening pattern [9]. - **Soybeans (A2605)**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4560 - 4660. The market is affected by US soybean trends, the cooling of the Middle - East conflict, and the situation of China's soybean procurement. It will maintain a high - level shock in the short term [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal**: Fluctuates in the 2940 - 3000 range. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory is bearish, the disk is neutral, the main position is bearish, and the short - term is in a shock - strengthening pattern [9]. - **Soybeans**: Fluctuates in the 4560 - 4660 range. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory is bearish, the disk is neutral, the main position is bearish, and it maintains a high - level shock in the short term [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term bullish for US soybeans, but there are still variables in China's procurement volume and US soybean weather. The US market is in a short - term strong shock [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China continues to decline in the first quarter, the soybean inventory of oil mills remains high in March, and soybean meal returns to range shock in the short term [13]. - The decline in domestic pig - raising profits leads to low expectations for pig restocking, and the demand for soybean meal remains low in March, suppressing the price expectations of soybean meal [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains high. Due to the possible weather speculation in South American soybean - producing areas and the impact of the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, soybean meal is in a short - term shock - strengthening pattern [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal** - **Bullish factors**: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term bullish for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still variables in the weather of South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bearish factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains high in March; the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is advancing, and South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [14]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of the harvest weather of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [14]. - **Soybeans** - **Bullish factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean disk; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price expectations of domestic soybeans [15]. - **Bearish factors**: Brazilian soybeans have a bumper harvest, and China increases the procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectations of beans [15]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Transaction Data** - From March 17th to 25th, the trading volume of soybean meal gradually decreased, and the trading volume of rapeseed meal was relatively low. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [16]. - **Price Data** - From March 18th to 25th, the prices of soybean futures, soybean meal futures, and soybean meal spot all showed a downward trend to some extent [18]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data** - From March 16th to 25th, the warehouse receipts of soybean No.1, soybean No.2, and soybean meal all decreased to varying degrees [20]. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheet** - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2016 to 2025, the harvest area, output, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [32]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2016 to 2025, the harvest area, output, and import volume of domestic soybeans showed an overall upward trend, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [33]. - **Sowing, Growth, and Harvest Progress** - **2023/24 Argentina**: The sowing and harvest progress of soybeans is compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, showing that the progress in 2023/24 is generally in line with or slightly better than the previous levels [34]. - **2024 US**: The sowing, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, and the progress in 2024 is affected by various factors and shows different trends [35][36][37][38]. - **2024/25 Brazil**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, and the progress in 2024/25 is relatively stable [39][40]. - **2024/25 Argentina**: The planting progress of soybeans is compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, and the progress in 2024/25 is in line with the previous levels [41]. - **2025/26 Brazil**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, and the progress in 2025/26 shows certain differences [42]. - **2025/26 Argentina**: The planting progress of soybeans is compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, and the progress in 2025/26 is relatively close to the previous levels [43]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report**: From July 2025 to February 2026, the planting area, yield, output, and other data of US soybeans, as well as the output data of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, are reported, showing certain fluctuations [44]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions of soybean meal and soybeans decreased, and the funds flowed out, showing a bearish trend [9][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Bean Meal**: The M2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 2920 and 2980. The market is currently neutral, with the price influenced by the movement of US soybeans and the short - term easing of the Middle East conflict. The basis is positive, but the increase in inventory and the reduction of long - positions by the main players bring some bearish factors. In the short - term, it is in a moderately strong oscillating pattern [9]. - **Soybeans**: The A2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 4560 and 4660. The market is neutral, affected by US soybeans and the short - term cooling of the Middle East conflict. Although demand provides some support, factors such as the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production and spot prices limit the upside potential [11]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Tips - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases of US soybeans and US soybean weather remain uncertain. The US market is short - term bullish and oscillating, awaiting further guidance on South American soybean harvest, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China continues to decline in the first quarter, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remains at a relatively high level in March. The planting and growth weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and bean meal has returned to range - bound oscillations [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, and the demand for bean meal remains low in March, suppressing the price expectations of bean meal. The influence of US soybeans and the weak demand for bean meal have cross - effects [13]. - The bean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Due to the possibility of weather speculation in South American soybean production areas and the impact of the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, bean meal is short - term oscillating and moderately strong, awaiting further clarification of the Middle East situation, confirmation of South American soybean production, and further guidance on the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Bean Meal** - **Bullish factors**: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the bean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean production areas [14]. - **Bearish factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains at a relatively high level in March; the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is advancing, and South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [14]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of South American soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [14]. - **Soybeans** - **Bullish factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports price expectations [15]. - **Bearish factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppresses soybean price expectations [15]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Price and Transaction Data** - The trading volume and average price of bean meal and rapeseed meal from March 16th to 24th are provided, as well as the price differences between bean meal and rapeseed meal [16]. - The prices of soybean and bean meal futures and spot from March 17th to 24th are presented, including the prices of different contracts and spot prices in different regions [18]. - **Inventory Data** - The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2016 to 2025 are provided, including data on harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [32][33]. - The sowing, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the United States, and Brazil from 2023 to 2026 are presented, including sowing rate, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, leaf - falling rate, and harvest rate [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the arrival volume of imported soybeans has rebounded from a low level and also increased year - on - year [45][47]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has decreased slightly, and the bean meal inventory has returned to a normal level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains at a relatively high level, and the bean meal production in February decreased slightly year - on - year. The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills have decreased slightly, and the short - term stocking demand is good [50][52][54]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has declined following the oscillation of US soybeans, and the on - paper profit has fluctuated slightly [56]. - **Livestock Data** - The year - on - year increase in pig inventory is slight, the sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and slightly month - on - month. The pig price has continued to decline recently, and the average slaughter weight has decreased slightly. The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has fluctuated slightly. The loss of domestic pig - farming profits has expanded, and the pig - to - grain ratio and feed - to - meat ratio have fallen to a low level [58][60][62][64][66]. 5. Position Data - Not mentioned in the provided content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is affected by multiple factors, including the Middle - East situation, Sino - US trade negotiations, and South American soybean harvest weather. In the short term, soybean meal is in a volatile and relatively strong pattern, while soybeans are in a high - level volatile pattern [10][11]. - The supply and demand of soybeans and soybean meal are complex. The supply is influenced by factors such as import volume, oil - mill inventory, and production, while the demand is affected by the situation of the pig - breeding industry [59]. - The future trends of soybean and soybean meal prices depend on factors such as South American soybean harvest weather, Sino - US trade agreement implementation, and Chinese soybean imports [73]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Tips - No relevant information provided 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations reached a preliminary agreement, which is short - term positive for US soybeans. However, the quantity of Chinese soybean purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is short - term bullish and volatile, waiting for further guidance on South American soybean harvest, Chinese soybean imports, and Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in the first quarter. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a relatively high level in March. The weather for soybean planting and growth in South America was relatively normal, and soybean meal returned to range - bound trading [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits led to low expectations for pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal remained low in March, suppressing the price of soybean meal. The market was affected by both the trend of US soybeans and weak demand for soybean meal [13]. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills remained at a relatively high level. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in South American soybean - producing areas and the impact of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement. Soybean meal is short - term bullish and volatile, waiting for further clarity on the Middle - East situation, the output of South American soybeans, and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal** - **Bullish factors**: The preliminary Sino - US trade agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bearish factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in March; the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is progressing, and South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest under normal weather conditions [14]. - **Soybeans** - **Bullish factors**: The increase in the cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic demand for soybeans supports the domestic soybean price [15]. - **Bearish factors**: The preliminary Sino - US trade agreement leads to an increase in Chinese purchases of US soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price of soybeans [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2016 to 2025 [19]. - **USDA's Recent Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: It includes information on planting area, yield, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from July 2025 to February 2026 [20]. - **US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in 2024**: It details the sowing progress, emergence rate, and excellent - good rate from April 28 to June 30, 2024 [21]. - **US Soybean Growth Progress in 2024**: It shows the flowering rate, pod - setting rate, and excellent - good rate from June 30 to August 25, 2024 [22]. - **US Soybean Growth and Harvest Progress in 2024**: It includes the defoliation rate, harvest rate, and excellent - good rate from September 8 to November 10, 2024 [23]. - **Brazilian Soybean Planting Progress in 2024/25**: It shows the planting rate from November 3, 2024, to January 5, 2025 [24]. - **Brazilian Soybean Harvest Progress in 2024/25**: It details the harvest rate from February 23, 2025, to May 4, 2025 [25]. - **Argentine Soybean Planting Progress in 2024/25**: It shows the planting rate from November 13, 2024, to January 15, 2025 [26]. - **Brazilian Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in 2025/26**: It includes the planting rate from November 8, 2025, to January 3, 2026, and the harvest rate from January 10 to February 21, 2026 [27]. - **Argentine Soybean Planting Progress in 2025/26**: It shows the planting rate from November 26, 2025, to January 21, 2026 [28]. 3.5 Position Data - No relevant information provided 3.6 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand and Inventory Structure) - **US Soybean Market Analysis**: The February USDA report has a relatively neutral impact. US soybeans are short - term bullish and volatile due to Chinese purchases and bio - fuel policies, but the good harvest expectation of South American soybeans suppresses the price. The short - term and medium - term trends are mainly affected by the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the implementation of the Sino - US trade agreement [32]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain** - **Imported Soybean Arrival**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans has rebounded from a low level and increased year - on - year [35]. - **Oil - Mill Pressing and Inventory**: The soybean inventory of oil mills has decreased slightly, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a normal level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains at a relatively high level, and the soybean meal output in February decreased slightly year - on - year. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have decreased slightly, and the short - term stocking demand is good [38][40][42]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction**: The purchase of domestic downstream enterprises remains good, and the提货 volume is at a high level in the same period of history [46]. - **Pig - Breeding Inventory**: The pig inventory has increased slightly year - on - year, the sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and slightly month - on - month. The pig price has continued to decline recently, and the average slaughter weight has decreased slightly. The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has fluctuated slightly. The domestic pig - breeding profit loss has expanded, and the pig - grain ratio and feed - to - meat ratio have fallen to a low level [48][50][52][54][56]. 3.7 Meal Market Structure - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Basis Analysis**: The soybean meal futures have fallen after rising, the spot price is relatively strong, and the spot premium remains at a relatively high level [61]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Price Difference**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract is at a relatively high level [63]. 3.8 Technical Analysis - **Soybean Technical Analysis**: The soybean futures have fallen after rising, affected by the trend of US soybeans and the relatively strong domestic soybean spot price. The KDJ and MACD indicators have crossed and fallen at high levels, and the soybean futures are in a high - level volatile pattern, waiting for new guidance [68]. - **Soybean Meal Technical Analysis**: The soybean meal futures have fallen after rising, affected by the trend of US soybeans and the short - term increase in domestic demand. The KDJ and MACD indicators have crossed and fallen at high levels, and the soybean meal futures are in a relatively strong volatile pattern, waiting for new guidance [71]. 3.9 Next Week's Concerns - **Most Important**: The harvest weather and export situation of South American soybean - producing areas, the implementation of the Sino - US trade agreement, and the arrival and operation of Chinese imported soybeans [73]. - **Second - Important**: The domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and the downstream procurement situation [73]. - **Less Important**: Macroeconomic factors and conflicts between the US and Iran, and between Russia and Ukraine [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - **For Bean Meal (M2605)**: It is expected to oscillate between 2980 and 3040. The market is currently in a slightly bullish oscillating pattern, influenced by factors such as the movement of US soybeans, the potential of the Sino - US trade agreement, and the situation in the Middle East. The decrease in oil - mill bean meal inventory and the price above the 20 - day moving average are positive factors, while the reduction of long - position by the main players and capital outflow are negative factors [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2605)**: It is expected to oscillate between 4740 and 4840. The market is in a high - level oscillating state, affected by US soybean trends, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the situation in the Middle East. The positive factors include the spot price premium over futures and the price above the 20 - day moving average, while the increase in main short - positions, capital outflow, and potential new - season domestic soybean production increase are negative factors [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in China's purchase volume and US soybean weather. The US market is in a slightly bullish oscillating state, waiting for further guidance on South American soybean harvest, import soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China continues to decline in the first quarter, and the soybean inventory of oil mills remains relatively high in March. The planting and growth weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and bean meal has returned to range - bound oscillation [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profit leads to a low expectation of pig restocking, and the demand for bean meal remains low in March, suppressing the price expectation. The influence of US soybeans and weak demand for bean meal interact [13]. - The bean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains relatively high. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in South American soybean - producing areas, and the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement has an impact. Bean meal is in a slightly bullish oscillating state in the short term, waiting for further clarity on the Middle East situation, the determination of South American soybean production, and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Bean Meal** - **Bullish Factors**: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; there is no pressure on the bean meal inventory of domestic oil mills; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains relatively high in March; the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is advancing, and South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [14]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of South American soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [14]. - **Soybeans** - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation [15]. - **Bearish Factors**: Brazil has a bumper soybean harvest, and China has increased its purchase of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppresses the price expectation of beans [15]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From March 12 to March 20, the transaction average price of bean meal fluctuated between 3368 and 3420, and the transaction volume ranged from 9.75 to 29.04 million tons. The transaction average price of rapeseed meal was between 2440 and 2620, and the transaction volume was mostly 0, with only a small amount on a few days. The average price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal ranged from 800 to 956 [16]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data**: From March 13 to March 20, the futures prices of soybeans (both bean one and bean two) and bean meal fluctuated. The spot price of bean one remained at 4840, and the spot price of bean meal was mostly 3300 [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From March 11 to March 20, the bean one warehouse receipts decreased from 24618 to 22047, the bean two warehouse receipts were mostly 200 - 300, and the bean meal warehouse receipts decreased from 36982 to 36685 [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in harvest area, production, consumption, inventory, etc. over the years. For example, in the global balance sheet, the production has been increasing in recent years, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated between 17.97% and 23.05%. In the domestic balance sheet, the import volume has been relatively large, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also fluctuated [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the United States, and Brazil in different years are provided. For example, in the 2024/25 season, the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans reached 98.5% on January 5, and the harvest progress reached 76.4% on March 23 [34][35][39][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports in the past six months show the changes in planting area, yield, production, and other indicators of US soybeans. For example, the production in January 2026 was 42.62 billion bushels [44]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 3030 - 3090. It is currently in a short - term, slightly bullish oscillating pattern, influenced by the rise of US soybeans and short - term restrictions on imported soybeans due to the intensification of the Middle East conflict. However, factors such as the completion of China's soybean purchases from the US and good weather in South American soybean - producing areas may limit its upward space [9]. - The soybean A2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4740 - 4840. It will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. Although the support from China's continuous purchase of US soybeans and the reduction in expected imports of soybeans due to the escalation of the Middle East conflict support the price, factors like the uncertainty of China's purchase volume and the good weather in South American soybean - producing areas may suppress the upward movement [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Tips No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the amount of China's soybean purchases from the US and the weather of US soybeans are still uncertain. The US soybean market will be in a short - term, slightly bullish oscillation, waiting for further guidance on South American soybean harvest, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in the first quarter. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a relatively high level in March. With normal weather for soybean planting and growth in South America, soybean meal will return to range - bound oscillation in the short term [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal will remain low in March, suppressing the price expectation of soybean meal. The influence of US soybeans and the weak demand for soybean meal will have a cross - impact [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Due to the possible speculation on the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the impact of the preliminary agreement on Sino - US trade negotiations, soybean meal will be in a short - term, slightly bullish oscillation, waiting for further clarity on the Middle East situation, confirmation of South American soybean production, and further guidance on the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Bullish factors**: The preliminary agreement on Sino - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bearish factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will remain at a relatively high level in March; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest as the Brazilian soybean harvest progresses [14]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of South American soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [14]. Soybeans - **Bullish factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation of domestic soybeans [15]. - **Bearish factors**: Brazil's soybean harvest is bumper, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [15]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From March 11th to March 19th, the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also showed certain fluctuations [16]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From March 12th to March 19th, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal fluctuated. The spot price of soybean meal was relatively strong, and the spot premium remained at a relatively high level [18][23]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From March 10th to March 19th, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed. The warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1 and soybean No. 2 decreased to varying degrees, and the warehouse receipts of soybean meal also decreased [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2016 to 2025 show the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory of soybeans in different periods [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: The report provides the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 to 2026, including data on planting rate, harvest rate, emergence rate, and excellent - good rate [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - **USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from July 2025 to February 2026 show the changes in US soybean planting area, yield, output, ending inventory, exports, and crushing volume, as well as the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [44]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. 6. Soybean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies Soybean Meal - **Range**: 3030 - 3090 [9]. - **Analysis of influencing factors**: The US soybeans are oscillating and rising. The situation in the Middle East continues to cause inflation expectations and technical oscillating consolidation. The short - term trend is slightly bullish, waiting for further guidance on the implementation of the Sino - US trade agreement and the harvest weather in South American soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal first rose and then fell. Influenced by the trend of US soybeans and the short - term restriction of imported soybeans due to the intensification of the Middle East conflict, it has entered a short - term, slightly bullish oscillating pattern. The basis is positive, the inventory has decreased, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, but the main short positions have increased and the funds have flowed out [9]. Soybeans - **Range**: 4740 - 4840 [11]. - **Analysis of influencing factors**: The US soybeans are oscillating and rising. The situation in the Middle East continues to cause inflation expectations and technical oscillating consolidation. The short - term trend is slightly bullish, waiting for further guidance on the implementation of the Sino - US trade agreement and the harvest weather in South American soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybeans are oscillating and falling. The expected decrease in the arrival of imported soybeans due to the escalation of the Middle East conflict and the short - term good demand support the market. However, there is still uncertainty in the follow - up Sino - US trade negotiations, and it will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. The basis is positive, the inventory has decreased, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, but the main short positions have decreased and the funds have flowed out [11]. Other Market Conditions - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [45]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans increased from a low level and increased year - on - year [47]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills increased, and the soybean meal inventory increased slightly at a high level [50]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills increased from a low level, and the soybean meal output in February decreased slightly year - on - year [52]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills increased from a low level, and the short - term stocking demand increased [54]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans oscillated and fell following the US soybeans, and the margin on the futures market fluctuated slightly [56]. - The pig inventory increased slightly year - on - year, the sow inventory decreased year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month [58]. - The pig price continued to fall recently, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly [60]. - The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly [62]. - The loss of domestic pig - farming profits expanded [64]. - The pig - grain ratio and feed - meat ratio fell to a low level [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Expected to oscillate between 3040 and 3100. Influenced by the upward trend of US soybeans, short - term shock is on the strong side. The basis is at a premium, inventory has decreased, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main short positions have decreased with capital inflow [9]. - **Soybeans (A2605)**: Expected to fluctuate between 4880 and 4980. US soybeans are in a short - term strong shock, and domestic soybeans maintain a high - level shock. The basis is at a discount, inventory is relatively high, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main short positions have decreased with capital inflow [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean Meal (M2605) is in the range of 3040 - 3100, and Soybeans (A2605) is in the range of 4880 - 4980. The market is affected by factors such as US - China trade agreements, South American weather, and Middle - East conflicts [9][11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on US - China tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still variables in the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in the first quarter, and the soybean inventory of oil mills remained high in March. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits led to low expectations for pig restocking, suppressing the price of soybean meal. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remained high, and it was in a short - term strong shock, waiting for further clarity on the Middle - East situation, South American soybean production, and the follow - up of US - China trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal** - **Positive factors**: Preliminary agreement on US - China trade negotiations, no pressure on soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills, and variable weather in South American soybean - producing areas. - **Negative factors**: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in March, and expected high yield of South American soybeans under normal weather conditions. - **Soybeans** - **Positive factors**: Cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price. - **Negative factors**: High yield of Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese purchases of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppresses the price [14][15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The average transaction price and volume from March 9th to 17th are presented, and the price of soybean meal futures rebounded, with the spot price relatively strong and the premium at a relatively high level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills increased from a low level, and the soybean meal production in February decreased slightly year - on - year. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills increased from a low level, and short - term stocking demand increased [16][23][25]. - **Soybeans**: The futures and spot prices from March 10th to 17th are presented, and the soybean inventory of oil mills increased, while the soybean meal inventory increased slightly at a high level. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased with the shock of US soybeans, and the on - disk profit fluctuated slightly [18][50][56]. 3.5 Position Data - For both soybean meal and soybeans, the main short positions decreased, and capital flowed in [9][11]. 3.6 Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Global**: From 2016 to 2025, data on harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are provided [32]. - **Domestic**: From 2016 to 2025, data on harvest area, initial inventory, output, import volume, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are provided [33]. 3.7 Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress - **2023/24 Argentina**: Data on the sowing and harvesting progress are provided, including comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [34]. - **2024 US**: Data on the sowing, growth, and harvesting progress are provided, including comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [35][36][37][38]. - **2024/25 Brazil**: Data on the planting and harvesting progress are provided, including comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [39][40]. - **2024/25 Argentina**: Data on the planting progress are provided, including comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [41]. - **2025/26 Brazil**: Data on the planting and harvesting progress are provided, including comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [42]. - **2025/26 Argentina**: Data on the planting progress are provided, including comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [43]. 3.8 USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports - From July 2025 to February 2026, data on planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing, Brazilian soybean output, and Argentine soybean output are provided [44]. 3.9 Other Market Data - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year, and the arrival volume of imported soybeans increased from a low level and increased year - on - year. The pig inventory increased slightly year - on - year, the sow inventory decreased year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price continued to decline recently, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly. The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit deficit expanded, and the pig - grain ratio and feed - to - meat ratio dropped to a low level [45][47][58][60][62][64][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Soybean Meal (M2605)**: It is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060. Influenced by factors such as the decline of US soybeans, uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, and short - term restrictions on imported soybeans due to the intensification of Middle East conflicts, it has entered a short - term oscillatory and slightly stronger pattern. The current situation is neutral, with a positive basis, a decrease in inventory, a price above the 20 - day moving average, an increase in short positions of the main force, and inflow of funds [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2605)**: It is expected to oscillate between 4860 and 4960. Affected by the decline of US soybeans and the increase in the expected reduction of imported soybeans due to the escalation of the Middle East conflict, it maintains a high - level oscillation in the short term. The current situation is neutral, with a negative basis, a decrease in inventory on a week - on - week basis but an increase on a year - on - year basis, a price above the 20 - day moving average, an increase in short positions of the main force, and outflow of funds [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - No information provided in the content. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations have reached a preliminary agreement, which is short - term positive for US soybeans. However, the quantity of China's soybean purchases from the US and the weather of US soybeans are still uncertain. The US soybean market is in a short - term strong oscillation, awaiting further guidance on the South American soybean harvest, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China continues to decline in the first quarter. The soybean inventory of oil mills remains at a relatively high level in March. The planting and growth weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and soybean meal has returned to range oscillation in the short term [13]. - The reduction of domestic pig - raising profits leads to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal remains low in March, suppressing the price expectation of soybean meal. The influence of US soybeans and the weak demand for soybean meal have a cross - impact [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in the South American soybean producing areas and the influence of the preliminary agreement on Sino - US trade negotiations. Soybean meal is in a short - term oscillatory and slightly stronger pattern, awaiting further clarification of the Middle East situation, the determination of South American soybean yields, and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal** - **Positive Factors**: The preliminary agreement on Sino - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean producing areas [14]. - **Negative Factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains at a relatively high level in March; the harvesting of Brazilian soybeans is advancing, and South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest under normal weather conditions [14]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of the South American soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [14]. - **Soybeans** - **Positive Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation of domestic soybeans [15]. - **Negative Factors**: Brazilian soybeans have a good harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [15]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From March 6th to March 16th, the transaction average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3161 and 3420, and the trading volume fluctuated between 0 and 39.9 million tons. The transaction average price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2400 and 2620, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only a small amount of trading on March 9th and March 16th. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 761 and 900 [16]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data**: From March 9th to March 16th, the prices of soybean futures (including bean 1 and bean 2), soybean meal futures (including the main contract and the far - month contract), and soybean and soybean meal spot prices all fluctuated [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From March 5th to March 16th, the number of bean 1, bean 2, and soybean meal warehouse receipts changed to varying degrees, with some increasing, some decreasing, and some remaining unchanged [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides the global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2016 to 2025, including data on harvested area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress in Different Regions**: It includes the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24), the United States (2024), Brazil (2024/25, 2025/26), and Argentina (2024/25, 2025/26) at different times [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months**: It shows the planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing volume, and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in the USDA monthly supply - demand reports from July 2025 to February 2026 [44]. 3.5 Position Data - No information provided in the content.