Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - Overall, the prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as trade situations, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic policies. Different metals have different price trends and investment strategies [3][6][9][11][14][17][20][23][26][29] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Overnight, copper prices showed a trend of rising first and then falling. LME copper 3M contract closed down 0.21% to $10,576/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 85,160 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 450 to 138,350 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants declined. In the domestic market, SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased slightly, and spot premiums and trading volumes varied by region [2] - **Strategy View**: Trump's threat to significantly increase tariffs on China is uncertain. Fundamentally, overseas copper mine production cuts are expected to tighten copper supply in the next two years, and combined with a decrease in domestic refined copper production, the supply - demand relationship strongly supports prices. Short - term copper price decline may be limited. The reference operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 84,400 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $10,450 - $10,750/ton [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices oscillated and rebounded. LME aluminum 3M contract rose slightly by 0.18% to $2,744/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,885 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions decreased slightly, and warehouse receipts increased. Domestic and overseas aluminum inventories changed, and market sentiment was still cautious [5] - **Strategy View**: The Sino - US trade situation is still uncertain. From an industrial perspective, with the increase in the domestic aluminum - water ratio, seasonal recovery of consumption, and strong exports, the pressure on aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is not large, and the downside space for aluminum prices is expected to be limited. The reference operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,740 - 21,050 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,720 - $2,770/ton [6] Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE lead index closed up 0.41% to 17,124 yuan/ton. There were changes in LME and SHFE lead inventories, and various price spreads and basis values were reported [8] - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased slightly, and the smelting start - up of primary lead has remained at a high level. The inventory of scrap lead has declined, and although the smelting start - up of recycled lead has increased, it remains at a low level, and lead ingot factory inventory has accumulated. Downstream battery enterprises' holiday time is less than in previous years, and industry data has improved marginally. On October 10, a large number of LME lead inventories were cancelled, increasing the structural risk of LME lead. It is expected that SHFE lead will run strongly in the short term [9] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE zinc index closed down 0.94% to 22,035 yuan/ton. There were changes in LME and SHFE zinc inventories, and various price spreads and basis values were reported. Domestic social inventory increased slightly [10] - **Strategy View**: During the holiday, domestic zinc smelting enterprises continued normal production, and most downstream zinc enterprises maintained normal production. LME zinc registered warrants are still at an absolute low level, and there is still a structural risk. After the zinc ingot export window opened, short - positions on the domestic market were closed, providing short - term support for SHFE zinc. It is expected that SHFE zinc will oscillate at a low level with increased risk fluctuations [11] Tin - **Market Information**: On October 15, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 281,710 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous day. The supply of tin ore is tight due to slow resumption of production in Myanmar and crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia. The smelting start - up rate of refined tin has decreased. Downstream demand is mixed, with some sectors booming and others dragging down demand. Although the traditional peak season has led to marginal improvement in consumption, high tin prices still restrain downstream consumption [13] - **Strategy View**: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may drive down market risk appetite, but the short - term tin supply - demand is in a tight balance state, and combined with the recovery of peak - season demand, tin prices may remain oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $34,000 - $36,000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, nickel prices oscillated. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 121,180 yuan/ton, up 0.29% from the previous day. Spot market transactions were average, and the prices of nickel ore, nickel iron, and intermediate products were stable or slightly changed [15] - **Strategy View**: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may drive down market risk appetite, but since the previous increase in nickel prices was limited, the impact is relatively small. Recently, nickel iron prices have weakened, and refined nickel inventory pressure is still significant, which may drag down nickel prices. In the long term, US easing expectations, domestic anti - involution policies, and RKAB approval are expected to support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider buying on dips if the price drops enough. The reference operating range for SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The Five - Mineral Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed down 0.12% to 72,927 yuan. The LC2601 contract closed at 72,940 yuan, up 0.25% from the previous day [19] - **Strategy View**: On Wednesday, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased again, and inventory has been continuously reduced. If consumption remains strong and resonates with the macro - environment, it is expected to open up upward space for lithium prices. The short - term probability of strong oscillation is high. The reference operating range for the LC2601 contract is 71,880 - 75,280 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 15, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.25% to 2,805 yuan/ton. There were changes in positions, basis, overseas prices, and inventory [22] - **Strategy View**: Ore prices are supported in the short term but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The opening of the import window may exacerbate the over - supply situation. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may drive the non - ferrous metal sector to run strongly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for the resonance of macro - sentiment. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [23] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,560 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. Spot prices of different products changed slightly, and raw material prices were stable. Futures inventory decreased, and social inventory increased [25] - **Strategy View**: After the holiday, social inventory has significantly accumulated, but terminal consumption is flat, and the market does not show the characteristics of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, which may be related to the pre - consumption caused by the concentrated delivery of previous orders. In the spot market, Qingshan - series products led the decline, driving other varieties to follow suit. Affected by pessimistic expectations, downstream risk - aversion sentiment is strong, and market trading is light. It is expected that the market trend will be weak [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the AD2511 contract rose 0.2% to 20,365 yuan/ton. There were changes in positions, trading volume, and warehouse receipts. The price of domestic mainstream ADC12 was stable, and the market trading atmosphere was average [28] - **Strategy View**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the delivery pressure on the near - month contract of cast aluminum alloy is still large, putting pressure on the price upside [29]