有色金属日报 2025-10-16 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 【行情资讯】 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 隔夜鲍威尔提及可能结束缩表，贸易局势仍反复，贵金属价格继续走强，铜价冲高回落，伦铜 3M 合 约收跌 0.21%至 10576 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 85160 元/吨。LME 铜库存减少 450 至 138350 吨， 注销仓单比例下滑，Cash/3M 维持升水。国内上期所铜仓单小幅增加 0 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm employment figures exceeded expectations, leading to a rapid decline in the probability of interest rate cuts in July [1] - Domestic policies such as the trade-in program will continue, and anti-involution policies are emerging [1] - The aluminum industry saw a month-on-month increase of 2.1 million tons in production capacity in May, with a slight rise in operating rates [1] Group 2 - In May, China's net export of alumina was 142,500 tons, a significant decrease, marking 14 consecutive months of net exports, with export profits slightly narrowing [1] - The production cost of alumina was 2,821.9 yuan per ton, with a profit of 300.3 yuan per ton, showing a slight decrease in costs and a minor reduction in profits [1] - The latest price of caustic soda was 3,540 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 10 yuan per ton, providing cost support for alumina [1] Group 3 - The electrolytic aluminum industry maintained stable supply with a slight increase in production capacity [1] - In May, net imports of aluminum were 191,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40,000 tons but a month-on-month decrease of 45,800 tons, with current import losses at 1,310 yuan per ton [1] - The production cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 108 yuan per ton week-on-week, currently around 16,611 yuan, with profits at 4,259 yuan per ton, a week-on-week decrease of 82 yuan [1] Group 4 - Social inventory of aluminum reached 475,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 14,000 tons, while spot prices remained high with rapid declines in premiums [1] - The main contract for August is expected to fluctuate between 19,800 and 20,800 yuan per ton, with attention on high-season hedging opportunities [1]