Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market was initially pressured by the spill - over risk of steel and aluminum tariffs, but silver prices recovered since Thursday. Trump's pressure on the Fed and potential impacts on the dollar's credit support gold prices. The Fed has differences in views on interest rate cuts, and the US macro - data shows economic resilience, keeping gold in a range - bound pattern and silver showing relative resilience [7]. - Future market trading may focus on the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire expectation and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The risk of stagflation remains a market concern, and the Fed's officials being intervened by the government may support gold's safe - haven demand [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, paying attention to the unexpected results of Russia - Ukraine negotiations and the Fed's hawkish stance. Specific price ranges are given for gold and silver contracts [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The precious metals market was pressured by steel and aluminum tariffs, but silver recovered. Trump's actions and Fed's internal differences affected the market. US macro - data showed economic resilience, with the manufacturing PMI rising and employment data showing some weakness [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The US economic data fluctuates due to tariff expectations, and the employment market shows signs of cooling. The Fed's officials being intervened may support gold's safe - haven demand. Market trading will focus on the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire and Powell's speech [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term investors are advised to wait and see, paying attention to negotiation results and Fed's stance. Specific price ranges are provided for gold and silver contracts [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of August 22, 2025, COMEX silver rose 1.05% to $38.42 per ounce, while the Shanghai silver futures contract fell 0.13%. COMEX gold fell 0.35% to $3370 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold futures contract fell 0.41% [10]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 21, 2025, the SLV silver ETF's holdings increased 1.40% to 15278 tons, and the SPDR gold ETF's holdings decreased 0.50% to 956.77 tons [15]. - **Speculative Net Positions**: As of August 12, 2025, both COMEX gold and silver speculative net positions decreased, with gold's total and net positions falling 0.78% and 3.19% respectively, and silver's total and net positions falling 3.00% and 12.61% respectively [20]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of August 12, 2025, COMEX gold's non - commercial long positions decreased 1.40%, and short positions increased 6.30% [25]. - **Basis Changes**: As of August 21, 2025, the gold basis fell 27.68% to - $3.46 per gram, and the silver basis fell 12.50% to - $18 per kilogram [27]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of August 21, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased 0.18%, while Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory increased 0.83%. COMEX silver inventory increased 0.20%, and SHFE silver inventory decreased 1.50% [35] 3. Industrial Supply and Demand Silver - **Import Data**: As of July 2025, China's silver imports decreased 7.46% month - on - month, while silver ore imports increased 22.32% [39]. - **Down - stream Demand**: As of July 2025, semiconductor silver demand drove up the growth rate of integrated circuit production, with a 15% year - on - year increase [45]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, silver's industrial demand increased 4%, coin and net bar demand decreased 22%, and ETF net investment demand turned positive. The supply - demand gap has been narrowing, with a 26% decrease in 2024 [51][55] Gold - **Price Changes**: As of August 21, 2025, the Chinese gold recycling price rose 0.25% week - on - week, and gold jewelry prices showed mixed trends [59]. - **Demand Changes**: In Q2 2025, the World Gold Council reported a slight decline in gold ETF investment demand. Central bank gold purchases slowed, and high gold prices led to a marginal decline in gold jewelry manufacturing demand [61] 4. Macroeconomic and Options - **Dollar and Interest Rates**: The expectation of interest rate cuts decreased slightly, and the dollar strengthened this week. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility increased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio decreased. The 10 - year US break - even inflation rate remained basically flat [65][70][74] - **Central Bank Actions**: In August 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 2.18 tons [78]

新华社纽约8月18日电综合新华社驻外记者报道：美国总统特朗普18日在白宫与到访的乌克兰总统泽连 斯基以及多名欧洲领导人举行系列会晤后表示，将开始筹备俄乌领导人双边会晤并随后举行美俄乌三方 领导人会晤。他坚称俄乌双方可以在不停火的情况下进行和平谈判。同一天，俄乌双方继续交火。 美乌双边会晤开始前不久，乌克兰首都基辅再次响起防空警报。乌克兰空军在社交媒体上说，乌方探测 到俄军一架能够携带"匕首"高超音速导弹的米格-31型战斗机起飞，触发乌克兰全境防空警报。 据俄罗斯塔斯社18日报道，俄军正包围哈尔科夫州库皮扬斯克市，试图重新夺取这处交通要地。由于乌 军防御工事坚固，俄军无法正面强攻。另据俄罗斯国防部通报，俄军无人机操作员在哈尔科夫州击毁乌 军两辆德国制"豹"式坦克。当天，俄罗斯军队使用航空炸弹摧毁乌军在顿涅茨克地区的两处临时部署 点。 乌克兰武装部队总参谋部18日在社交媒体发文称，乌无人系统部队当天凌晨在乌军其他部队配合下袭击 了俄罗斯的尼科利斯科耶输油泵站，导致该泵站向"友谊"输油管道泵油工作彻底停止。"友谊"输油管道 是俄罗斯向中东欧输送原油的大型管网系统。 当天，塔斯社援引俄方军事专家说法报道，乌军试图在苏 ...

据央视新闻，当地时间8月17日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"上发文称， "在俄罗斯问题上取得重大进展"，并呼吁外界"拭目以待"。 当地时间15日，美国总统特朗普和俄罗斯总统普京在阿拉斯加州安克雷奇市埃尔门多夫-理查森联合军事基地举行会晤。双方对会晤评价积极，但未 就俄乌停火等问题达成协议。 乌克兰总统泽连斯基16日确认，他将于18日与特朗普会晤。特朗普16日曾说，如果他与泽连斯基的会晤顺利，将着手安排美俄乌三方会议。德国总 理弗里德里希·默茨希望三方会议在欧洲举行。 ...

按消息人士说法，欧洲多国认为威特科夫本月早些时候与俄总统普京会晤时，可能误解了俄方在俄乌实 现停火方面的立场，他随后向欧洲盟友和乌克兰传递了不准确的信息。威特科夫认为俄方提议俄军从赫 尔松和扎波罗热地区"和平撤离"，而普京是要求乌军从这两个地区撤离。 新华财经北京8月17日电美国和俄罗斯领导人15日在美国阿拉斯加州举行会晤但没有达成协议，美国媒 体认为"仓促安排"两国领导人见面或与美国中东问题特使史蒂文·威特科夫误读俄方立场有关。 美国全国广播公司16日以一位欧洲官员和两位美国前政府官员为消息源报道，威特科夫误读了俄方有关 俄乌停火的表态，导致"匆忙"安排了美俄领导人会晤。 然而，美国白宫否认相关报道。白宫发言人安娜·凯利在电子邮件中告诉美国全国广播公司记者，"这是 假新闻"，强调威特科夫没有误读俄方立场，他正同美国总统特朗普一道致力于寻求和平。 普京6日在克里姆林宫会见威特科夫，俄美双方均证实两人的会晤富有成果。特朗普8日在社交媒体发 文，宣布他将于15日在阿拉斯加州与普京举行会晤。（包雪琳） （文章来源：新华社） 德国媒体《图片报》上周报道，威特科夫传递了"可能引发混乱的信息"。 ...

德国《图片报》报道，德国、英国和法国17日将决定是否以及派何种级别的代表前往美国参加18日 的会晤。 新华社华盛顿8月16日电（记者颜亮）美国总统特朗普16日在社交媒体发文说，他18日与乌克兰总 统泽连斯基在白宫会晤后，"如果一切顺利"，将安排同俄罗斯总统普京举行美俄乌三方会议。 据美国时政新闻网站阿克西奥斯报道，特朗普与普京会晤后同欧洲领导人通话，说希望最快于22日 举行美俄乌三方会议。特朗普邀请欧洲领导人18日到白宫商讨乌克兰问题。泽连斯基确认，他将应邀于 18日到白宫会晤特朗普。 特朗普与普京15日在美国阿拉斯加州安克雷奇市举行会晤。双方表示，会晤"具有建设性""富有成 果"，但未就俄乌停火等议题达成任何协议。在美国媒体看来，特朗普宣称会晤取得成功并表示他与普 京就多数议题达成共识，但普京仍坚持其最强硬立场，因此实现重大突破的可能性不大。 德国总理默茨16日接受德国媒体采访时说，特朗普、泽连斯基和普京将举行三方会议，具体时间地 点尚未确定。他说，尽管欧洲方面希望俄乌实现立即停火，但特朗普认为更应达成一项全面的和平协 议，"如果谈判成功，其价值将超过停火"。 默茨认为，"普特会"双方没有越过乌克兰和欧盟的 ...

Core Points - The meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin on August 15 marked a significant moment in US-Russia relations, which have been described as at their lowest point since the Cold War [2][12] - Both leaders expressed a desire for improved relations and discussed the potential for future cooperation, particularly regarding the Ukraine conflict [2][3] Group 1: Meeting Details - The meeting lasted over two and a half hours and was initially planned as a one-on-one discussion but changed to a three-on-three format [9][10][11] - Trump and Putin both emphasized the importance of direct communication and expressed optimism about future meetings, with Trump suggesting a follow-up meeting could take place in Moscow [3][17] Group 2: Key Issues Discussed - The two main topics of discussion were the ceasefire in Ukraine and the normalization of US-Russia relations [12][14] - Trump stated that Ukraine would decide on any territorial exchanges with Russia, emphasizing that he was there to facilitate dialogue rather than negotiate on behalf of Ukraine [13][16] Group 3: Reactions and Future Implications - Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed the necessity for Ukraine to be involved in any decisions affecting its sovereignty and territorial integrity [16] - There is a possibility of Zelensky participating in future discussions if progress is made, indicating a potential shift in the dynamics of the negotiations [17]

Group 1 - The meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin in Anchorage marks the first face-to-face encounter in four years and the first since 2019, highlighting a significant diplomatic moment for both nations [1][6][17] - The meeting was initially planned as a one-on-one discussion but was changed to a three-on-three format, indicating a more collaborative approach to the dialogue [6][10] - Key topics of discussion included the Ukraine ceasefire and the normalization of US-Russia relations, with a focus on territorial exchanges related to Ukraine [7][9][10] Group 2 - The meeting lasted over two and a half hours, with both sides expressing that negotiations were progressing smoothly [5][7] - Ukraine's involvement in the discussions was emphasized, with President Zelensky stating that any decisions regarding Ukraine must include Ukrainian participation [11][16] - The meeting is seen as a critical opportunity for both nations to break a diplomatic stalemate, with potential implications for future negotiations and regional security dynamics [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of an immediate ceasefire consensus between Russia and the U.S. is low due to significant differences in their core positions, although conditions for serious peace negotiations have become more favorable compared to 6-12 months ago [1][5][7]. Group 1: Meeting Context - The upcoming one-on-one meeting between Presidents Putin and Trump in Anchorage, Alaska, is the first face-to-face encounter since June 2021, with expectations of discussing the Ukraine crisis and potential long-term solutions [3]. - Trump has expressed a belief that an agreement could be reached, estimating a 25% chance of failure in the meeting [3][4]. - The U.S. has lowered expectations ahead of the meeting, indicating a more cautious approach [4]. Group 2: Negotiation Dynamics - There is a fundamental divide in core positions between the two sides, making breakthroughs unlikely [7]. - The U.S. has not yet exerted sufficient pressure to change the situation significantly, despite a recent shift in its stance towards Russia [10]. - Russia's official comments remain limited and vague, with Putin viewing the meeting as an opportunity to achieve multiple objectives, including economic ties [11]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Negotiations - Three key factors have shifted to create a more favorable environment for negotiations: enhanced European defense capabilities and U.S. support, changing public opinion in both Ukraine and Russia favoring negotiations, and challenges facing the Russian economy [15][16][17]. - Despite these favorable conditions, the ongoing battlefield situation remains a critical constraint, with Russia maintaining military initiative [18][19]. Group 4: Possible Outcomes - The report outlines four potential scenarios for the meeting, with the most likely being limited outcomes that pave the way for future discussions, such as a ceasefire on long-range strikes [21]. - Other scenarios include failure leading to increased U.S. sanctions or a negative outcome where agreements bypass Kyiv, though the latter is deemed unlikely [22]. - The nature of any agreement will be more impactful than whether an agreement is reached, with unfavorable terms for Ukraine potentially leading to long-term negative effects on Ukrainian assets [22].

Group 1 - The core agenda of the upcoming meeting between Presidents Putin and Trump includes discussions on the Ukraine crisis, aiming for a ceasefire and long-term solutions [4][5][6] - The meeting will also address the normalization of US-Russia relations, focusing on economic cooperation and global security issues [6][7] - Cooperation in Arctic development is expected to be a topic, with potential projects aimed at enhancing economic development in Russia's Arctic and Far East regions [8] Group 2 - The meeting is scheduled for August 15 in Anchorage, Alaska, with a one-on-one format followed by a delegation-level discussion [2][3] - Key representatives from the Russian side include Finance Minister Siluanov, Foreign Minister Lavrov, and Defense Minister Shoigu [2] - Analysts predict that the meeting may lead to new dynamics in US-Russia relations, particularly regarding the New START treaty [7]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump on March 15 in Anchorage, Alaska, is expected to address the Ukraine ceasefire and long-term solutions to the Ukraine crisis, as well as the potential for improving US-Russia relations [1] Group 1: Meeting Expectations - The meeting is the first face-to-face encounter between the two leaders since June 2021, with expectations being lowered by the US side prior to the meeting [1][3] - Trump estimates a 25% risk of failure in reaching an agreement during the meeting, indicating a cautious approach [1] Group 2: Divergent Positions - There is a significant gap in core positions between the US and Russia, making breakthrough progress unlikely [2] - Trump has assured European allies that he will not negotiate territorial issues with Putin alone, despite previously suggesting "land swaps," indicating potential shifts in his stance [3] Group 3: Current Environment for Negotiations - Although immediate breakthroughs seem unlikely, conditions for serious negotiations have improved compared to 6-12 months ago [6] - Key factors contributing to this improved environment include enhanced European defense capabilities and increased US support, as well as changing public opinion in both Ukraine and Russia favoring negotiations [7][8] Group 4: Economic Challenges for Russia - Russia's economic situation is deteriorating, with a projected sharp slowdown in 2025 and a rising fiscal deficit, which may hinder its ability to sustain military spending [9] - Despite these challenges, the battlefield situation remains critical, with Russia maintaining an advantage in military operations [9][10] Group 5: Possible Outcomes of the Meeting - Four potential scenarios for the meeting are outlined, with the most likely being limited outcomes that pave the way for future talks, such as a ceasefire on long-range strikes [11] - The nature of any agreement reached will be more significant than whether an agreement is reached at all, as a perceived unfavorable deal for Ukraine could have long-term negative impacts on Ukrainian assets [11]