Group 1 - The G7 Foreign Ministers' meeting took place in Niagara, Ontario, Canada, on November 11-12, focusing on urgent global economic and security challenges [1] - Key discussion topics included maritime security and prosperity, economic resilience, energy security, and critical minerals [1] - The meeting will also address issues related to ceasefire agreements in Ukraine and Gaza [1] Group 2 - In addition to G7 member countries, invited participants included Ukraine, Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia, Australia, South Africa, South Korea, and Mexico [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant downturn in the gold market, predicting that the recent price drop is a result of overextended bullish sentiment and the emergence of bearish factors, suggesting a temporary adjustment rather than a long-term decline [1][5][8]. Market Analysis - A major drop in gold prices occurred, with February futures closing at $4109.10 per ounce, marking a 5.7% decline, the largest since June 2013 [1]. - Spot gold fell from a high of $4381 to a low of $4004, a drop of $377 per ounce, representing a 6.3% decrease, the largest single-day drop since April 2013 [1]. Reasons for Price Drop - The bullish factors for gold, such as anticipated interest rate cuts, U.S. government shutdown, and the Fed's announcement to halt balance sheet reduction, have already been priced in [3][4]. - The market is now facing more bearish factors, including potential positive outcomes from U.S.-China tariff negotiations and the likelihood of the U.S. government reopening, which could negate recent gains [5][6]. Silver's Impact - The recent rise in gold prices was partly driven by silver's performance, which experienced a supply squeeze. However, as silver's supply issues were resolved, its price began to decline, contributing to gold's price adjustment [6]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the current downturn in gold prices is a temporary adjustment, with a bullish outlook for the coming years as the underlying issues with fiat currencies persist [7][8]. - It is anticipated that gold prices may stabilize and potentially rise again towards the end of the year, particularly after the expiration of futures and options contracts [9]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to consider entering the gold market during price corrections, as these represent opportunities for long-term gains [10].

Core Viewpoint - China maintains a consistent and clear stance on the Ukraine crisis, advocating for dialogue and negotiation to achieve a fair, lasting, and binding peace agreement accepted by all parties involved [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **China's Position on Ukraine Crisis** - China emphasizes the importance of dialogue and negotiation in resolving the Ukraine crisis [1] - The goal is to reach a peace agreement that is fair, lasting, and accepted by all parties [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents the market conditions of various commodities including chemical, agricultural products, and industrial metals, along with macro - economic news and investment suggestions for different futures and financial products. It also analyzes the influencing factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and market sentiment [3][5][10]. - In the stock market, A - shares showed a collective upward trend on October 21, but the rebound needs new catalysts. The market is waiting for policy guidance from important meetings, the results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, and changes in monetary and fiscal policies. It is recommended to adopt a rolling operation strategy [17][20][21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Commodities - On October 22, 2025, among chemical commodities, the prices of some commodities like coking coal, coke, (PTA), etc. rose, while others such as natural rubber, 20 - numbered rubber, and plastic declined. For example, coking coal rose by 1.062% to 1,189.50 yuan, and natural rubber fell by 0.264% to 15,110.00 yuan [3]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - Trump plans to visit China early next year, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry has no specific information to provide. The Chinese Commerce Minister had talks on trade issues with EU and Dutch officials, emphasizing China's stance on export control and the importance of global supply - chain stability [5]. - The precious metal market suffered a significant setback, with spot gold dropping by up to 6.3% to about $4080 per ounce and spot silver falling by 8.7% to $47.89 per ounce, mainly due to reduced risk - aversion, a stronger dollar, and profit - taking [6]. - The Ministry of Commerce held a policy - interpretation round - table meeting for foreign - funded enterprises, highlighting China's responsible attitude towards export control. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism reported that the number of domestic tourist trips in the first three quarters reached 4.998 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.61 billion (18%), and tourist spending reached 4.85 trillion yuan, a 11.5% year - on - year increase [6]. 3.3 Morning Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut futures on October 21 closed at 7880 yuan/ton, down 0.91%, with a short - term range of 7700 - 7900 yuan/ton. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak [10]. - Sugar futures on October 21 closed at 5438 yuan/ton, up 0.06%. The price is near the cost - support area, and it is recommended to operate with a shock - thinking approach, focusing on the 5420 - 5450 yuan/ton range [10]. - Corn futures on October 21 closed at 2144 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. The price has broken through the previous shock range, and it is advisable to pay attention to the performance at the 2150 - yuan pressure level [10]. - The national average price of live pigs was 11.25 yuan/kg, with increased supply - side reluctance to sell and improved demand. The futures market is expected to maintain a weak shock [10]. - The national egg spot price was stable, with a "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern. The futures market is expected to remain weak, and a month - spread reverse - arbitrage strategy is recommended [10][12]. - Cotton futures on October 21 closed at 13540 yuan/ton, up 0.78%. The price has broken through the upper limit of the previous shock range, and it is recommended to try long positions at low prices [12]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - The domestic urea market price is weak, with a daily output of 18.35 tons. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The futures price will continue to trade at a low level [12]. - The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The supply is gradually recovering, and demand is weak. The futures contract is under pressure [12]. - Coking coal and coke are in a short - term shock, with coking coal in the range of 1050 - 1300 yuan and coke in the range of 1550 - 1800 yuan [14]. - Log futures on October 21 closed at 838 yuan/m³, up 0.42%. It is recommended to pay attention to the 835 - 845 yuan/m³ range [14]. - Pulp futures on October 21 closed at 5170 yuan/ton, up 0.23%. It is advisable to go long at the 5150 - yuan support level [14]. - Double - offset paper futures on October 21 closed at 4170 yuan/ton, down 0.10%. It is recommended to try long positions near the 4150 - yuan support level [14]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum prices are at high levels, supported by macro and supply - demand factors. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, and the 2601 contract is weak [14][15]. - The night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose slightly. The steel price is expected to have limited downward space and will trade in a low - level shock [15]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures first rose and then fell. They are expected to continue to trade in a wide - range shock [15]. - Lithium carbonate futures on October 21 closed at 75980 yuan/ton, down 0.26%. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance at the 78000 - yuan pressure level [15]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - On October 21, A - shares rose collectively, and the trading volume slightly increased. The stock index futures showed different trends in basis changes, and option trading volume and implied volatility also changed. It is recommended that trend investors focus on arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors consider buying straddles or wide - straddles [17]. - European and American stock markets showed mixed trends. The A - share market rebound needs new catalysts, and it is recommended to adopt a rolling operation strategy [17][18][20].

Group 1 - The joint statement from European leaders strongly supports US President Trump's position on Ukraine, advocating for an immediate ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, using the current front lines as a starting point for negotiations [1][2] - The statement emphasizes the principle that international borders should not be changed by force, and European leaders plan to increase pressure on Russia while continuing to support Ukraine [2] - The leaders are developing a plan to utilize frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine, with a related meeting scheduled for later in the week [2] Group 2 - Ukrainian President Zelensky is one of the signatories of the joint statement, alongside leaders from the European Commission, European Council, France, the UK, Germany, Italy, Poland, Norway, Finland, and Denmark [2] - Trump's social media post suggested that Russia and Ukraine should reach an agreement, cease hostilities, and declare victory, proposing a division of the Donbas region along current front lines, which would result in significant territory being controlled by Russia [2]

Core Points - The peace process between Russia and Ukraine has seen a dramatic turn, with European leaders issuing a joint statement supporting an immediate ceasefire based on current front lines, despite stalled preparations for a US-Russia meeting [1][6][7] - The territorial dispute remains the biggest obstacle to negotiations, with differing positions on the status of the Donbas region [1][8][9] Group 1: US-Russia Relations - Preparations for a meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rubio have stalled, with no agreement on time or place reached [4][5] - The US believes that Russia has not sufficiently shifted from its maximalist demands, leading to a lack of progress in discussions [5] Group 2: European Response - European leaders, including those from Germany, France, Italy, and the UK, have signed a joint statement supporting Trump's proposal for an immediate halt to military actions and negotiations based on current front lines [6][7] - The statement emphasizes the commitment to uphold the principle that international borders cannot be changed by force and to increase economic pressure on Russia [7] Group 3: Territorial Disputes - Trump proposed that Russia and Ukraine should "cut" the Donbas region along current front lines, which would result in significant territory remaining under Russian control [8] - Ukrainian President Zelensky has firmly rejected the Russian demand for a complete withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donetsk and Luhansk regions [8][9]

Core Points - President Trump called for an immediate ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine after a meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky, emphasizing the need for both sides to declare victory [1] - Zelensky reiterated Ukraine's need for strong security guarantees and expressed a realistic outlook on the potential acquisition of long-range weapons from the U.S. [1] - Trump and Zelensky discussed the provision of U.S. weapons, with Zelensky acknowledging the challenges of territorial concessions [1] - Trump had a lengthy conversation with President Putin, focusing on ending the conflict and future U.S.-Russia trade, with plans for a face-to-face meeting in Budapest [1][2] Summary by Sections U.S.-Ukraine Relations - Trump urged for an immediate ceasefire and suggested both Russia and Ukraine should declare victory [1] - Zelensky emphasized the necessity for strong security guarantees from the U.S. [1] Military Support and Weapons - Discussion on the provision of U.S. long-range weapons, with Zelensky indicating that Ukraine needs to make more efforts for this support [1] - Zelensky's response to the potential acquisition of "Tomahawk" missiles was cautious, reflecting the sensitivity of territorial concessions [1] Russia Relations - Trump had a two-hour conversation with Putin regarding the end of the conflict and future trade relations [1] - Plans for a future meeting between Trump and Putin in Budapest were announced, although the date is yet to be determined [1][2]

Group 1 - The meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico focused on deepening mutual understanding and cooperation, particularly regarding Ukraine's EU accession process and economic collaboration [3][4][9] - Zelensky emphasized Slovakia's strategic value in supporting Ukraine's EU membership and highlighted the importance of close coordination between Ukraine and Moldova in achieving this goal [3][4] - Both leaders reached significant agreements on enhancing economic cooperation, particularly in cross-border infrastructure, energy interconnectivity, and regional economic integration, which are expected to create more job opportunities and improve living standards [3][4] Group 2 - Zelensky declared the end of Russia's use of energy as a political tool and outlined Ukraine's energy advantages, including completed reforms and renewable energy potential, while offering stable energy supply guarantees to Slovakia [4][10] - Fico acknowledged Slovakia's limited influence as a small European country but expressed support for peace initiatives that could lead to a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, sharing Slovakia's experience from its EU accession in 2004 [6][9] - Zelensky invited Slovakia to join Ukraine's international security assurance system, aiming to expand Ukraine's international support network [8] Group 3 - Fico responded to recent criticisms from U.S. President Trump regarding European countries purchasing Russian energy, asserting that each country has the right to determine its energy policy based on its circumstances [10] - Slovakia is gradually diversifying its energy sources while still importing Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline, a situation complicated by recent military actions affecting energy supply security [10]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump on August 15 in Alaska discussed four conditions proposed by Russia for ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict, including opposition to the deployment of Western ground peacekeeping forces in Ukraine [1] Group 1 - Russia's conditions for ending the conflict include rejecting the presence of Western ground troops in Ukraine [1] - Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed willingness to meet with Putin, contingent upon Western allies finalizing a security guarantee plan for Ukraine [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market was initially pressured by the spill - over risk of steel and aluminum tariffs, but silver prices recovered since Thursday. Trump's pressure on the Fed and potential impacts on the dollar's credit support gold prices. The Fed has differences in views on interest rate cuts, and the US macro - data shows economic resilience, keeping gold in a range - bound pattern and silver showing relative resilience [7]. - Future market trading may focus on the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire expectation and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The risk of stagflation remains a market concern, and the Fed's officials being intervened by the government may support gold's safe - haven demand [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, paying attention to the unexpected results of Russia - Ukraine negotiations and the Fed's hawkish stance. Specific price ranges are given for gold and silver contracts [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The precious metals market was pressured by steel and aluminum tariffs, but silver recovered. Trump's actions and Fed's internal differences affected the market. US macro - data showed economic resilience, with the manufacturing PMI rising and employment data showing some weakness [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The US economic data fluctuates due to tariff expectations, and the employment market shows signs of cooling. The Fed's officials being intervened may support gold's safe - haven demand. Market trading will focus on the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire and Powell's speech [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term investors are advised to wait and see, paying attention to negotiation results and Fed's stance. Specific price ranges are provided for gold and silver contracts [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of August 22, 2025, COMEX silver rose 1.05% to $38.42 per ounce, while the Shanghai silver futures contract fell 0.13%. COMEX gold fell 0.35% to $3370 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold futures contract fell 0.41% [10]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 21, 2025, the SLV silver ETF's holdings increased 1.40% to 15278 tons, and the SPDR gold ETF's holdings decreased 0.50% to 956.77 tons [15]. - **Speculative Net Positions**: As of August 12, 2025, both COMEX gold and silver speculative net positions decreased, with gold's total and net positions falling 0.78% and 3.19% respectively, and silver's total and net positions falling 3.00% and 12.61% respectively [20]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of August 12, 2025, COMEX gold's non - commercial long positions decreased 1.40%, and short positions increased 6.30% [25]. - **Basis Changes**: As of August 21, 2025, the gold basis fell 27.68% to - $3.46 per gram, and the silver basis fell 12.50% to - $18 per kilogram [27]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of August 21, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased 0.18%, while Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory increased 0.83%. COMEX silver inventory increased 0.20%, and SHFE silver inventory decreased 1.50% [35] 3. Industrial Supply and Demand Silver - **Import Data**: As of July 2025, China's silver imports decreased 7.46% month - on - month, while silver ore imports increased 22.32% [39]. - **Down - stream Demand**: As of July 2025, semiconductor silver demand drove up the growth rate of integrated circuit production, with a 15% year - on - year increase [45]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, silver's industrial demand increased 4%, coin and net bar demand decreased 22%, and ETF net investment demand turned positive. The supply - demand gap has been narrowing, with a 26% decrease in 2024 [51][55] Gold - **Price Changes**: As of August 21, 2025, the Chinese gold recycling price rose 0.25% week - on - week, and gold jewelry prices showed mixed trends [59]. - **Demand Changes**: In Q2 2025, the World Gold Council reported a slight decline in gold ETF investment demand. Central bank gold purchases slowed, and high gold prices led to a marginal decline in gold jewelry manufacturing demand [61] 4. Macroeconomic and Options - **Dollar and Interest Rates**: The expectation of interest rate cuts decreased slightly, and the dollar strengthened this week. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility increased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio decreased. The 10 - year US break - even inflation rate remained basically flat [65][70][74] - **Central Bank Actions**: In August 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 2.18 tons [78]