（文章来源：央视新闻） 威特科夫还表示，美国和俄罗斯还同意建立由美军欧洲司令部司令亚力克苏斯·格林克维奇牵头的军事 对话机制。 当地时间2月5日，美国总统特使威特科夫表示，在美俄乌三方会谈中，与乌克兰的讨论富有建设性，重 点是如何为持久和平创造条件。双方就剩余的未决问题进行了广泛讨论，包括如何实施俄乌停火和监督 军事行动的停止。 威特科夫表示，各代表团达成协议，俄罗斯和乌克兰将各自释放157名战俘，各代表团同意向各自首都 汇报，并在未来几周继续进行三方会谈。 ...

乌克兰外长瑟比加27日表示，乌克兰总统泽连斯基愿意与俄罗斯总统普京举行会晤，以解决和平计划中 最敏感的两个问题，即领土和扎波罗热核电站问题。 瑟比加指出，乌克兰希望签署一项包含20项内容的和平计划，这是一份双边文件，将由美国和乌克兰签 署，前提是该计划能够获得批准。他表示目前最敏感的问题，即领土和扎波罗热核电站问题仍然没有得 到解决。瑟比加强调，乌总统泽连斯基正是为了解决这些问题才愿意与普京会面并进行讨论。 瑟比加说，在阿布扎比举行谈判期间，除了三方会谈外，乌克兰和俄罗斯代表团还举行了双边会晤，在 会晤中进行了重点突出、实质性的讨论，特别是关于可能的停火，"双方就停火或停火的参数、监测或 核查停火的程序、定义术语进行了实质性讨论"。他同时表示，美方继续参与和平进程至关重要，因为 其中存在各种风险和挑战。 来源：央视新闻客户端 ...

其一：大概率特朗普是真的想动手了。最近，关于格陵兰岛的话题越来越热，欧洲出兵、特朗普反手给 八个欧洲国家加税，自封关税之王，场面看似热闹，但背后有个问题却从未得到足够重视——为什么时 隔一年，特朗普又一次把格陵兰岛炒作起来？实际上，早在特朗普第二任期开始的去年一月，他就提出 过类似的议题。当时也是沸沸扬扬的，但很快被他强推的俄乌停火提案所替代，直到今天，特朗普又重 新将格陵兰岛推上风口浪尖。事情的真相到底是什么？我们不妨推测一下，如果特朗普能够成功搞定俄 乌停火，那他接下来的目标大概率会转向亚太地区。毕竟，在他上任前就曾明确说过，历史书告诉他， 绝不能让中俄联合起来，这一点从后来的关税战中已经清晰可见。因此，我推测特朗普提格陵兰岛和启 动俄乌停火的顺序，实际上是在对欧洲发出警告：你们必须配合我搞停火，否则别怪我不客气，直接抢 了你们的媳妇！然而，特朗普显然低估了欧洲的反抗力量，欧洲各国纷纷高声反对，对他发起了猛烈的 抵制。于是，特朗普不得不启动关税战，逼迫各国站队，并顺带敲打欧洲，结果却让局势陷入了僵局。 这意味着，在俄乌停火和关税战两大策略失败后，特朗普不得不收起战略拳头，转而在美国的《国家安 全战略》中宣 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the news is that Ukraine is seeking a ceasefire during the Christmas period, but its realization depends on whether both Russia and Ukraine can reach a comprehensive and lasting peace agreement [1] - Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed hope for a ceasefire during Christmas, particularly for Russia to stop attacks on energy infrastructure [1] - Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov stated that if Ukraine seeks a "short-term, unfeasible solution" rather than a lasting resolution, Russia is unlikely to participate in such a ceasefire [1] Group 2 - Zelensky and a U.S. delegation held talks in Berlin, with discussions lasting over five hours on December 14 and about two hours on December 15, indicating a complex negotiation process [3] - Reports suggest that Ukraine and the U.S. are nearing a security assurance agreement similar to NATO's Article 5, with 90% of the topics agreed upon [3] - European leaders have committed to providing strong security guarantees and economic recovery support for Ukraine, including maintaining a peacetime military force of 800,000 troops [3] Group 3 - Territorial issues remain a key point of contention in the talks, with Zelensky reaffirming that Ukraine will not recognize the Donbas region as Russian territory [5] - Russian officials have indicated that they will not make concessions regarding territorial claims, particularly concerning Donbas and Crimea [5] - The atmosphere of the Berlin talks was described as positive, but the core objectives between the parties remain significantly divergent [5]

Group 1 - Ukraine is preparing for meetings with the US and European allies to discuss establishing a foundation for peace, with President Zelensky emphasizing the importance of achieving a "decent and fair peace" [1] - Germany announced it will host a meeting on December 14 with US and Ukrainian delegations to discuss ceasefire matters, in preparation for a summit on December 15 with multiple European leaders [1] - US special envoy and former senior advisor have already departed for Germany to meet with Zelensky and European leaders [1] Group 2 - Russia's Foreign Ministry spokesperson criticized the EU's decision to freeze Russian assets as illegal and a violation of international law, warning of severe consequences for the EU's financial reputation [3] - The EU, led by Denmark, has agreed to indefinitely freeze the assets of the Russian central bank in Europe, with some member states supporting the decision to potentially use these assets to aid Ukraine [3] - Hungarian Prime Minister Orban expressed concerns that using frozen Russian assets could undermine trust in European custodianship and lead to significant economic repercussions for Belgium [3] Group 3 - Turkish President Erdogan stated that the Black Sea should not become a confrontation zone between Russia and Ukraine, emphasizing the need for a secure navigation environment [7] - Following a missile attack on a Turkish roll-on/roll-off ship in Ukraine's Odesa port, Turkey's Foreign Ministry highlighted the urgency of a ceasefire and the necessity for an agreement to ensure the safety of Black Sea shipping [7] - A Russian-flagged cargo ship was also attacked near Turkey, with Ukraine denying involvement, while Russia condemned the incident as a "terrorist attack" [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that Russian President Putin has reiterated the stance that a ceasefire with Ukraine is only possible if Ukrainian forces withdraw from territories claimed by Russia [3][4]. Group 1 - Putin stated that unconditional ceasefire with Ukraine is impossible, insisting on the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from occupied territories as a prerequisite for halting hostilities [4]. - He mentioned ongoing calls for cessation of hostilities but maintained that military means would be employed to achieve the withdrawal if necessary [4].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Russia is currently only negotiating with the United States regarding the Ukraine issue, as stated by Kremlin spokesperson Peskov [1][3] - The U.S. and Ukraine held talks in Geneva on November 23, where a new plan to resolve the Ukraine crisis was modified from 28 points to 19 points [3] - Peskov confirmed that the details of the agreement reached in Geneva will be discussed next week, and Russia prefers not to publicly announce discussions on the Ukraine issue [3][4] Group 2 - Ukrainian President Zelensky's office director Yermak stated that as long as Zelensky is president, he will not sign any agreement to relinquish territory [5] - President Putin emphasized that Russia's recognition of sovereignty over Crimea and Donbas is a key point that should be included in negotiations with the U.S. [5] - Putin announced that a ceasefire can only be declared if Ukraine withdraws from territories claimed by Russia, reiterating that unconditional ceasefire is not possible [6][7]

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/28 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | 2025/11/21 | 58.06 | 62.56 | 64.39 | -0.20 | 0.62 | -4.50 | 0.25 | 188.34 | 16.54 | 245.64 | 40.61 | | 2025/11/24 | 58.84 | 62.22 | 64.50 | 0.48 | 0.59 | -3.38 | 0.29 | 189.66 | 17.44 | 240.61 | 38.84 | | 2025/11/25 | 57.95 | 62.48 | 64.3 ...

Group 1 - French President Macron announced the establishment of a working group led by France and the UK to coordinate security guarantees for Ukraine after a potential ceasefire with Russia, with participation from the US and Turkey [1] - The working group will determine how various parties can participate in Ukraine's security guarantees and finalize the form of these guarantees, which Macron emphasized is "crucial" for the Ukrainian people [1] - Macron stated that Russia currently shows "no intention" of ceasing hostilities with Ukraine and called for continued pressure on Russia to facilitate negotiations [1] Group 2 - Macron expressed the need for a "strong" and "unrestricted" Ukrainian military and mentioned that France will work with other EU countries to finalize solutions for providing financial support to Ukraine using frozen Russian assets [1] - Ukrainian President Zelensky participated in the video conference of the "Volunteer Alliance" and indicated Ukraine's readiness to advance the US-supported peace plan, urging European nations to establish a framework for deploying security guarantee forces to Ukraine [2]

Group 1 - The G7 Foreign Ministers' meeting took place in Niagara, Ontario, Canada, on November 11-12, focusing on urgent global economic and security challenges [1] - Key discussion topics included maritime security and prosperity, economic resilience, energy security, and critical minerals [1] - The meeting will also address issues related to ceasefire agreements in Ukraine and Gaza [1] Group 2 - In addition to G7 member countries, invited participants included Ukraine, Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia, Australia, South Africa, South Korea, and Mexico [1]