这是12月15日在德国首都柏林拍摄的国会大厦。新华社记者张豪夫摄 会谈"复杂不易" 俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫16日说，乌克兰希望在圣诞节期间停火，这一想法能否实现，取决于俄乌双方能否达成全面持久的和平协议。 乌克兰总统泽连斯基14日至15日在德国柏林与美国代表团举行会谈。泽连斯基15日表示，希望在圣诞节期间停火，特别是希望俄方在圣诞节期间 停止袭击能源基础设施。 佩斯科夫16日回答媒体提问时说，如果乌克兰想要"短期、不可行的方案"，而不是持久的解决方案，俄罗斯不太可能参与这样的停火。 佩斯科夫说，俄方不希望休战给乌克兰"喘息空间，从而为继续战争做准备"，俄方希望停止这场战争，实现自身目标，确保自身利益和欧洲未来 的和平。 关键分歧：领土 泽连斯基与美国总统特使威特科夫、美国总统特朗普的女婿库什纳14日抵达柏林，双方当天会谈超过5个小时，15日继续会谈约2个小时。美国媒 体15日援引美国官员的话报道，美乌正接近达成一项安全保障协议，类似于《北大西洋公约》第五条集体防御条款，双方已就"90%的议题"达成 共识。 泽连斯基在会谈后表示，此次会谈"复杂不易"，但"富有成效"。他同时强调，对乌克兰而言加入北约才是真正 ...

据央视新闻12月14日消息，当地时间12月13日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，乌克兰正在筹备未来几天与 美国及欧洲盟友的会面，他将赴柏林会晤美国及欧洲代表，商谈"构建和平的根基"。泽连斯基称，这一 系列磋商对乌克兰"具有决定性意义"，乌方的核心目标是"争取体面且公正的和平"。 德国方面于当天早些时候宣布，将于14日接待美国与乌克兰代表团，就俄乌停火等事宜举行会谈，并为 即将于15日在柏林召开的欧洲多国领导人及泽连斯基出席的峰会做准备。据此前报道，美国总统特使威 特科夫、白宫前高级顾问库什纳已启程前往德国，届时将与泽连斯基以及欧洲多国领导人会晤。 土耳其总统：黑海不应成为俄乌之间的"对抗区域" 图片来源：央视新闻 图片来源：央视新闻扎哈罗娃：欧盟冻结俄罗斯资产的行为完全非法 据央视新闻，当地时间12月13日，俄罗斯外交部发言人扎哈罗娃针对欧盟继续冻结俄罗斯资产一事发表 评论称，在未经俄罗斯联邦同意的情况下，处置其主权资产是完全非法的行为，严重违反了国际法准 则。扎哈罗娃强调，欧盟的行为给其金融体系以及贸易、投资声誉所带来的损害将是无法弥补的，必将 产生严重后果。 欧盟轮值主席国丹麦12日宣布，欧盟同意无限期冻结俄罗 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that Russian President Putin has reiterated the stance that a ceasefire with Ukraine is only possible if Ukrainian forces withdraw from territories claimed by Russia [3][4]. Group 1 - Putin stated that unconditional ceasefire with Ukraine is impossible, insisting on the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from occupied territories as a prerequisite for halting hostilities [4]. - He mentioned ongoing calls for cessation of hostilities but maintained that military means would be employed to achieve the withdrawal if necessary [4].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Russia is currently only negotiating with the United States regarding the Ukraine issue, as stated by Kremlin spokesperson Peskov [1][3] - The U.S. and Ukraine held talks in Geneva on November 23, where a new plan to resolve the Ukraine crisis was modified from 28 points to 19 points [3] - Peskov confirmed that the details of the agreement reached in Geneva will be discussed next week, and Russia prefers not to publicly announce discussions on the Ukraine issue [3][4] Group 2 - Ukrainian President Zelensky's office director Yermak stated that as long as Zelensky is president, he will not sign any agreement to relinquish territory [5] - President Putin emphasized that Russia's recognition of sovereignty over Crimea and Donbas is a key point that should be included in negotiations with the U.S. [5] - Putin announced that a ceasefire can only be declared if Ukraine withdraws from territories claimed by Russia, reiterating that unconditional ceasefire is not possible [6][7]

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/28 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | 2025/11/21 | 58.06 | 62.56 | 64.39 | -0.20 | 0.62 | -4.50 | 0.25 | 188.34 | 16.54 | 245.64 | 40.61 | | 2025/11/24 | 58.84 | 62.22 | 64.50 | 0.48 | 0.59 | -3.38 | 0.29 | 189.66 | 17.44 | 240.61 | 38.84 | | 2025/11/25 | 57.95 | 62.48 | 64.3 ...

Group 1 - French President Macron announced the establishment of a working group led by France and the UK to coordinate security guarantees for Ukraine after a potential ceasefire with Russia, with participation from the US and Turkey [1] - The working group will determine how various parties can participate in Ukraine's security guarantees and finalize the form of these guarantees, which Macron emphasized is "crucial" for the Ukrainian people [1] - Macron stated that Russia currently shows "no intention" of ceasing hostilities with Ukraine and called for continued pressure on Russia to facilitate negotiations [1] Group 2 - Macron expressed the need for a "strong" and "unrestricted" Ukrainian military and mentioned that France will work with other EU countries to finalize solutions for providing financial support to Ukraine using frozen Russian assets [1] - Ukrainian President Zelensky participated in the video conference of the "Volunteer Alliance" and indicated Ukraine's readiness to advance the US-supported peace plan, urging European nations to establish a framework for deploying security guarantee forces to Ukraine [2]

Group 1 - The G7 Foreign Ministers' meeting took place in Niagara, Ontario, Canada, on November 11-12, focusing on urgent global economic and security challenges [1] - Key discussion topics included maritime security and prosperity, economic resilience, energy security, and critical minerals [1] - The meeting will also address issues related to ceasefire agreements in Ukraine and Gaza [1] Group 2 - In addition to G7 member countries, invited participants included Ukraine, Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia, Australia, South Africa, South Korea, and Mexico [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant downturn in the gold market, predicting that the recent price drop is a result of overextended bullish sentiment and the emergence of bearish factors, suggesting a temporary adjustment rather than a long-term decline [1][5][8]. Market Analysis - A major drop in gold prices occurred, with February futures closing at $4109.10 per ounce, marking a 5.7% decline, the largest since June 2013 [1]. - Spot gold fell from a high of $4381 to a low of $4004, a drop of $377 per ounce, representing a 6.3% decrease, the largest single-day drop since April 2013 [1]. Reasons for Price Drop - The bullish factors for gold, such as anticipated interest rate cuts, U.S. government shutdown, and the Fed's announcement to halt balance sheet reduction, have already been priced in [3][4]. - The market is now facing more bearish factors, including potential positive outcomes from U.S.-China tariff negotiations and the likelihood of the U.S. government reopening, which could negate recent gains [5][6]. Silver's Impact - The recent rise in gold prices was partly driven by silver's performance, which experienced a supply squeeze. However, as silver's supply issues were resolved, its price began to decline, contributing to gold's price adjustment [6]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the current downturn in gold prices is a temporary adjustment, with a bullish outlook for the coming years as the underlying issues with fiat currencies persist [7][8]. - It is anticipated that gold prices may stabilize and potentially rise again towards the end of the year, particularly after the expiration of futures and options contracts [9]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to consider entering the gold market during price corrections, as these represent opportunities for long-term gains [10].

Core Viewpoint - China maintains a consistent and clear stance on the Ukraine crisis, advocating for dialogue and negotiation to achieve a fair, lasting, and binding peace agreement accepted by all parties involved [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **China's Position on Ukraine Crisis** - China emphasizes the importance of dialogue and negotiation in resolving the Ukraine crisis [1] - The goal is to reach a peace agreement that is fair, lasting, and accepted by all parties [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents the market conditions of various commodities including chemical, agricultural products, and industrial metals, along with macro - economic news and investment suggestions for different futures and financial products. It also analyzes the influencing factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and market sentiment [3][5][10]. - In the stock market, A - shares showed a collective upward trend on October 21, but the rebound needs new catalysts. The market is waiting for policy guidance from important meetings, the results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, and changes in monetary and fiscal policies. It is recommended to adopt a rolling operation strategy [17][20][21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Commodities - On October 22, 2025, among chemical commodities, the prices of some commodities like coking coal, coke, (PTA), etc. rose, while others such as natural rubber, 20 - numbered rubber, and plastic declined. For example, coking coal rose by 1.062% to 1,189.50 yuan, and natural rubber fell by 0.264% to 15,110.00 yuan [3]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - Trump plans to visit China early next year, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry has no specific information to provide. The Chinese Commerce Minister had talks on trade issues with EU and Dutch officials, emphasizing China's stance on export control and the importance of global supply - chain stability [5]. - The precious metal market suffered a significant setback, with spot gold dropping by up to 6.3% to about $4080 per ounce and spot silver falling by 8.7% to $47.89 per ounce, mainly due to reduced risk - aversion, a stronger dollar, and profit - taking [6]. - The Ministry of Commerce held a policy - interpretation round - table meeting for foreign - funded enterprises, highlighting China's responsible attitude towards export control. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism reported that the number of domestic tourist trips in the first three quarters reached 4.998 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.61 billion (18%), and tourist spending reached 4.85 trillion yuan, a 11.5% year - on - year increase [6]. 3.3 Morning Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut futures on October 21 closed at 7880 yuan/ton, down 0.91%, with a short - term range of 7700 - 7900 yuan/ton. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak [10]. - Sugar futures on October 21 closed at 5438 yuan/ton, up 0.06%. The price is near the cost - support area, and it is recommended to operate with a shock - thinking approach, focusing on the 5420 - 5450 yuan/ton range [10]. - Corn futures on October 21 closed at 2144 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. The price has broken through the previous shock range, and it is advisable to pay attention to the performance at the 2150 - yuan pressure level [10]. - The national average price of live pigs was 11.25 yuan/kg, with increased supply - side reluctance to sell and improved demand. The futures market is expected to maintain a weak shock [10]. - The national egg spot price was stable, with a "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern. The futures market is expected to remain weak, and a month - spread reverse - arbitrage strategy is recommended [10][12]. - Cotton futures on October 21 closed at 13540 yuan/ton, up 0.78%. The price has broken through the upper limit of the previous shock range, and it is recommended to try long positions at low prices [12]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - The domestic urea market price is weak, with a daily output of 18.35 tons. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The futures price will continue to trade at a low level [12]. - The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The supply is gradually recovering, and demand is weak. The futures contract is under pressure [12]. - Coking coal and coke are in a short - term shock, with coking coal in the range of 1050 - 1300 yuan and coke in the range of 1550 - 1800 yuan [14]. - Log futures on October 21 closed at 838 yuan/m³, up 0.42%. It is recommended to pay attention to the 835 - 845 yuan/m³ range [14]. - Pulp futures on October 21 closed at 5170 yuan/ton, up 0.23%. It is advisable to go long at the 5150 - yuan support level [14]. - Double - offset paper futures on October 21 closed at 4170 yuan/ton, down 0.10%. It is recommended to try long positions near the 4150 - yuan support level [14]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum prices are at high levels, supported by macro and supply - demand factors. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, and the 2601 contract is weak [14][15]. - The night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose slightly. The steel price is expected to have limited downward space and will trade in a low - level shock [15]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures first rose and then fell. They are expected to continue to trade in a wide - range shock [15]. - Lithium carbonate futures on October 21 closed at 75980 yuan/ton, down 0.26%. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance at the 78000 - yuan pressure level [15]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - On October 21, A - shares rose collectively, and the trading volume slightly increased. The stock index futures showed different trends in basis changes, and option trading volume and implied volatility also changed. It is recommended that trend investors focus on arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors consider buying straddles or wide - straddles [17]. - European and American stock markets showed mixed trends. The A - share market rebound needs new catalysts, and it is recommended to adopt a rolling operation strategy [17][18][20].