然而，鲍威尔对后续降息路径仍保持谨慎，强调"没有必要快速调整利率"。这一表态打破了市场对持续 性降息周期的预期，导致纳斯达克综合指数盘中一度下跌逾1%。 本次会议还凸显了政治因素对货币政策的影响。美国总统特朗普近期持续在社交媒体上施压美联储，要 求"大幅快速降息"，其新任命的美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰更是在首次会议上就投下反对票，主张更大幅 度降息50个基点。面对这些压力，鲍威尔重申将坚定维护美联储的独立性，强调除了抗通胀和稳就业 的"双重使命"外，不会考虑纳入其他政策目标。 选择25个基点而非50个基点的降息幅度，反映了美联储的审慎态度。鲍威尔解释说，更大幅度的降息未 能获得广泛支持，当前政策仍具"限制性"，此次调整是为了向更中性的利率水平过渡，以支持就业而不 加剧通胀。分析认为，25个基点的降息既能释放宽松信号，又为后续政策预留调整空间，避免被市场误 读为对经济衰退的恐慌反应。 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）成员对未来利率路径预测的可视化工具（点阵图）显 示，美联储官员的中位预期是年底前再降息0.5个百分点。这意味着决策层倾向于在年内剩余两次会议 上各降息25个基点，使年底利率区间降到3.5%至 ...

美联储卡什卡利：美国就业市场正在放缓，这不足为奇。 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index showed a slight recovery, closing at 98.05 with a 0.20% increase after a decline of 0.78% the previous day, marking a three-year low [1] - Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending June 7 recorded 248,000, exceeding market expectations of 240,000, indicating potential slowing in the labor market [1][2] - The May PPI year-on-year rate was reported at 2.6%, aligning with market expectations, while the month-on-month rate was 0.1%, below the expected 0.2% [1][2] Group 2 - The US core PPI data for May fell short of expectations, with economists warning of potential price pressures in the second half of the year due to trade policies and profit margin concerns [2] - The average number of initial jobless claims over four weeks has increased, reinforcing the view that the US job market may be slowing down [2] - Goldman Sachs revised the probability of a US economic recession in the next 12 months down from 35% to 30%, citing easing financial conditions and trade policy uncertainties [3]