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【黄金期货收评】美国通胀正在降温 沪金日内上涨1.72%
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-13 08:06
Group 1 - The latest Shanghai gold futures closing price is 794.36 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 1.72% and a trading volume of 294,538 contracts [1] - The Shanghai gold spot price on June 13 is quoted at 794 yuan per gram, showing a discount of 0.36 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for May increased by only 0.1% month-on-month, below the economist forecast of 0.2%, indicating moderate wholesale inflation pressure [1] Group 2 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. remained at 248,000, the highest level in eight months, while continuing claims rose by 54,000 to 1.956 million, the highest since November 2021 [2] - The employment growth rate from April to December 2024 is expected to be significantly lower than indicated by non-farm payroll reports, partly due to reduced labor supply from increased deportation efforts [2] Group 3 - According to Guotou Futures, the PPI annual rate of 2.6% for May meets expectations, while the weekly initial jobless claims at 248,000 are the highest since October 2024, suggesting a favorable outlook for interest rate cuts [3] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are escalating, with reports of Israel taking military action against Iran, which may influence gold market dynamics [3]
就业和通胀双双降温 美元创逾三年新低
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-13 02:22
Group 1 - The US dollar index showed a slight recovery, closing at 98.05 with a 0.20% increase after a decline of 0.78% the previous day, marking a three-year low [1] - Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending June 7 recorded 248,000, exceeding market expectations of 240,000, indicating potential slowing in the labor market [1][2] - The May PPI year-on-year rate was reported at 2.6%, aligning with market expectations, while the month-on-month rate was 0.1%, below the expected 0.2% [1][2] Group 2 - The US core PPI data for May fell short of expectations, with economists warning of potential price pressures in the second half of the year due to trade policies and profit margin concerns [2] - The average number of initial jobless claims over four weeks has increased, reinforcing the view that the US job market may be slowing down [2] - Goldman Sachs revised the probability of a US economic recession in the next 12 months down from 35% to 30%, citing easing financial conditions and trade policy uncertainties [3]
有色金属日报-20250523
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 02:21
有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜: 截至 5 月 22 日收盘,沪铜主力 06 合约下跌 0.22%至 77920 元/吨。中 美关税冲突缓和,叠加国内密集出台"稳增长"政策组合拳,同时美国 通胀降温,美联储降息概率加大,整个宏观面上交易情绪回暖,对铜价 有所提振。基本面,铜精矿现货 TC 继续回落,创历史新低,但下跌速 度放缓,短期对炼厂产量影响不大。随着铜价上行,持货商挺价出货与 下游畏高保守采购形成博弈,下游订单新增相对有限,消费提升空间不 大,5 月部分铜材加工率环比有所下滑,虽好于去年同期,但需求已有 走弱迹象。旺季转淡,库存低位累库,对铜价的支撑作用减弱,现货升 水或将承压。整体来看,宏观偏好,而基本面有所转弱,沪铜近期或仍 维持震荡格局。 ◆ 铝: 截至 5 月 22 日收盘,沪铝主力 07 合约上涨 0.20%至 20210 元/吨。近 日几内亚政府撤销部分矿山采矿许可证问题有进一步升级,AXIS 矿区被 划入战略储备区域,禁止开采,推动氧化铝大涨,后续关注是否有复产 回旋余地。氧化铝运行产能周度环比增加 10 万吨至 8685 万吨,全国氧 化铝库存 324.6 万吨,周度环比减少 4.2 万 ...
有色金属日报-20250522
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 02:56
有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜: 截至 5 月 21 日收盘,沪铜主力 06 合约上涨 0.31%至 78100 元/吨。中 美关税冲突缓和,叠加国内密集出台"稳增长"政策组合拳,同时美国 通胀降温,美联储降息概率加大,整个宏观面上交易情绪回暖,对铜价 有所提振。基本面,铜精矿现货 TC 继续回落,创历史新低,但下跌速 度放缓,短期对炼厂产量影响不大。随着铜价上行,持货商挺价出货与 下游畏高保守采购形成博弈,下游订单新增相对有限,消费提升空间不 大,5 月部分铜材加工率环比有所下滑,虽好于去年同期,但需求已有 走弱迹象。旺季转淡,库存低位累库,对铜价的支撑作用减弱,现货升 水或将承压。整体来看,宏观偏好,而基本面有所转弱,沪铜近期或仍 维持震荡格局。 ◆ 铝: 截至 5 月 21 日收盘,沪铝主力 07 合约上涨 0.65%至 20190 元/吨。近 日几内亚政府撤销部分矿山采矿许可证问题有进一步升级,AXIS 矿区被 划入战略储备区域,禁止开采,推动氧化铝大涨,后续关注是否有复产 回旋余地。氧化铝运行产能周度环比增加 10 万吨至 8685 万吨,全国氧 化铝库存 324.6 万吨,周度环比减少 4.2 万 ...
有色金属日报-20250521
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 01:59
有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜: 截至 5 月 20 日收盘,沪铜主力 06 合约下跌 0.26%至 77540 元/吨。中 美关税冲突缓和,叠加国内密集出台"稳增长"政策组合拳,同时美国 通胀降温,美联储降息概率加大,整个宏观面上交易情绪回暖,对铜价 有所提振。基本面,铜精矿现货 TC 继续回落,创历史新低,但下跌速 度放缓,短期对炼厂产量影响不大。随着铜价上行,持货商挺价出货与 下游畏高保守采购形成博弈,下游订单新增相对有限,消费提升空间不 大,5 月部分铜材加工率环比有所下滑,虽好于去年同期,但需求已有 走弱迹象。旺季转淡,库存低位累库,对铜价的支撑作用减弱,现货升 水或将承压。整体来看,宏观偏好,而基本面有所转弱,沪铜近期或仍 维持震荡格局。 ◆ 铝: 截至 5 月 20 日收盘,沪铝主力 07 合约下跌 0.45%至 20075 元/吨。近 日几内亚政府撤销部分矿山采矿许可证问题有进一步升级,推动氧化铝 价格大涨,但具体影响有待评估。氧化铝运行产能周度环比增加 10 万吨 至 8685 万吨,全国氧化铝库存 324.6 万吨,周度环比减少 4.2 万吨。氧 化铝企业检修减产和主动压产仍在继续,市场处 ...
秦氏金升:5.14黄金破位确认跌势,伦敦金行情走势分析及操作建议
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-14 15:00
Group 1 - Gold prices fell sharply due to easing global trade tensions, which reduced concerns about a potential economic recession and diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][3] - The recent drop in gold prices saw a significant decline of $50 within three hours, breaking below the $3200 mark [1][3] - The U.S. April CPI annual rate decreased to 2.3%, weaker than market expectations, leading to market speculation of two interest rate cuts by 2025 totaling 56 basis points [3] Group 2 - The gold market is currently under a bearish correction, with the price failing to break the key resistance level of $3260 [5] - Technical indicators show negative pressure on gold prices, with the current price below the 50-day moving average and a negative signal from the relative strength index (RSI) [5] - The analysis suggests a continued downtrend, with a potential target of $2909 if the price breaks below the previous low of $3200 [3][5] Group 3 - The recommended trading strategy is to focus on short positions below $3200, with specific targets set at $3175 and $3150 [7] - The analysis emphasizes a cautious approach, combining technical and fundamental analysis while maintaining strict risk management practices [7]
日度策略参考-20250514
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 12:06
Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]