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【黄金期货收评】美国通胀正在降温 沪金日内上涨1.72%
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-13 08:06
Group 1 - The latest Shanghai gold futures closing price is 794.36 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 1.72% and a trading volume of 294,538 contracts [1] - The Shanghai gold spot price on June 13 is quoted at 794 yuan per gram, showing a discount of 0.36 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for May increased by only 0.1% month-on-month, below the economist forecast of 0.2%, indicating moderate wholesale inflation pressure [1] Group 2 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. remained at 248,000, the highest level in eight months, while continuing claims rose by 54,000 to 1.956 million, the highest since November 2021 [2] - The employment growth rate from April to December 2024 is expected to be significantly lower than indicated by non-farm payroll reports, partly due to reduced labor supply from increased deportation efforts [2] Group 3 - According to Guotou Futures, the PPI annual rate of 2.6% for May meets expectations, while the weekly initial jobless claims at 248,000 are the highest since October 2024, suggesting a favorable outlook for interest rate cuts [3] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are escalating, with reports of Israel taking military action against Iran, which may influence gold market dynamics [3]
就业和通胀双双降温 美元创逾三年新低
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-13 02:22
Group 1 - The US dollar index showed a slight recovery, closing at 98.05 with a 0.20% increase after a decline of 0.78% the previous day, marking a three-year low [1] - Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending June 7 recorded 248,000, exceeding market expectations of 240,000, indicating potential slowing in the labor market [1][2] - The May PPI year-on-year rate was reported at 2.6%, aligning with market expectations, while the month-on-month rate was 0.1%, below the expected 0.2% [1][2] Group 2 - The US core PPI data for May fell short of expectations, with economists warning of potential price pressures in the second half of the year due to trade policies and profit margin concerns [2] - The average number of initial jobless claims over four weeks has increased, reinforcing the view that the US job market may be slowing down [2] - Goldman Sachs revised the probability of a US economic recession in the next 12 months down from 35% to 30%, citing easing financial conditions and trade policy uncertainties [3]
有色金属日报-20250523
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 02:21
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The copper market shows a mixed situation with positive macro - factors but weakening fundamentals, and the Shanghai copper may maintain a volatile pattern in the near term [1] - The aluminum price is expected to be weak in the second quarter due to factors such as the potential decline in downstream开工率 and economic data [2] - Nickel is expected to run with a weak and volatile trend in the medium - to - long - term due to the supply surplus, although the cost is firm [3] - The price of tin is expected to have increased volatility, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [5] Summary by Metal Types Copper - As of May 22, the Shanghai copper main 06 contract fell 0.22% to 77,920 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is positive, but the fundamentals are weakening. The spot copper price in the domestic market fell, and the market trading was light [1][6] - The SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 9,464 tons to 31,754 tons, and the LME copper inventory decreased by 2,300 tons to 166,525 tons [15] Aluminum - As of May 22, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract rose 0.20% to 20,210 yuan/ton. The price of alumina increased, and the downstream开工率 may decline. The second - quarter aluminum price is expected to be weak [2] - The spot aluminum market trading was light, with a situation of "having price but no market". The SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,099 tons to 58,422 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 386,900 tons [2][7][15] Nickel - As of May 22, the Shanghai nickel main 06 contract rose 0.03% to 123,400 yuan/ton. The cost is firm, but there is a medium - to - long - term supply surplus, and it is expected to run weakly and volatilely [3] - The spot nickel market saw merchants maintaining a wait - and - see attitude, and the downstream acceptance was low. The SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 452 tons to 22,562 tons, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 876 tons to 200,910 tons [3][12][15] Tin - As of May 22, the Shanghai tin main 06 contract fell 0.87% to 264,780 yuan/ton. The price is expected to have increased volatility, and attention should be paid to supply and demand [5] - The spot tin market had active inquiry intentions, and the downstream made rigid - demand replenishment at low prices. The SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 14 tons to 8,056 tons, and the LME tin inventory decreased by 5 tons to 2,665 tons [5][13][15] Other Metals (Zinc, Lead, Alumina) - Zinc: The domestic spot zinc price fell, and the consumption was poor. The SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1,400 tons, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,650 tons to 156,225 tons [9][15] - Lead: The domestic spot lead price fell, and the downstream consumption was low. The SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,769 tons to 39,327 tons, and the LME lead inventory increased by 13,700 tons to 295,825 tons [10][11][15] - Alumina: The price in different regions increased, and the market trading was warm [8]
有色金属日报-20250522
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 02:56
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The copper market shows a mixed situation with positive macro - factors but weakening fundamentals, and the Shanghai copper may maintain a volatile pattern in the near term [1] - For aluminum, due to the complex situation of production and demand, it is recommended to wait and see [2] - Nickel is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium - to - long term with a cost - supported downside limit and a supply surplus situation [3][5] - The price of tin is expected to have increased volatility, and it is necessary to focus on supply resumption and downstream demand [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals Copper - As of May 21, the Shanghai copper main 06 contract rose 0.31% to 78,100 yuan/ton. Macro factors are positive, but the demand shows weakening signs, and the support of inventory for copper prices is weakening [1] Aluminum - As of May 21, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract rose 0.65% to 20,190 yuan/ton. The alumina price has rebounded, and the electrolytic aluminum production capacity is increasing. The downstream demand may weaken, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Nickel - As of May 21, the Shanghai nickel main 06 contract fell 0.05% to 123,280 yuan/ton. The cost is firm, but there is a long - term supply surplus, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [3][5] Tin - As of May 21, the Shanghai tin main 06 contract rose 1.11% to 267,730 yuan/ton. The tin ore supply is tight, and the production resumption expectation is strong. The price volatility is expected to increase [6] Spot Transaction Summary Copper - The domestic spot copper price rose, but the spot market trading was light, and the spot premium decline suppressed the price [7] Aluminum - The spot aluminum price rose, but the market transaction was mediocre, and the high - price supply demand was weak [8] Alumina - The alumina spot price in different regions rose, and the market trading was active with sufficient trading momentum [9] Zinc - The spot zinc price rose, but the downstream procurement was cautious, and the transaction was light [10] Lead - The spot lead price rose, and the market activity increased slightly with mainly rigid - demand procurement [11][12] Nickel - The spot nickel price rose, but the traders were cautious, and the transaction was light [13] Tin - The spot tin price rose, the traders' rigid - demand restocking willingness increased, and there was a phenomenon of reluctant selling [14] Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - For copper, SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 4,520 tons to 41,218 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 1,925 tons to 168,825 tons [16] - For aluminum, SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,625 tons to 59,521 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,025 tons to 388,900 tons [16] - For zinc, SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts decreased by 126 tons to 1,400 tons, and LME zinc inventory increased by 1,150 tons to 157,875 tons [16] - For lead, SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts decreased by 3,884 tons to 41,096 tons, and LME lead inventory increased by 36,375 tons to 282,125 tons [16] - For nickel, SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 128 tons to 23,014 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 312 tons to 201,786 tons [16] - For tin, SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts increased by 45 tons to 8,070 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 15 tons to 2,670 tons [16]
有色金属日报-20250521
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 01:59
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The copper market shows a mixed situation with positive macro - factors but weakening fundamentals, and the Shanghai copper may maintain a volatile pattern recently [1] - For aluminum, with the uncertain impact of the Guinea issue and the approaching off - season, it is recommended to wait and see [2] - Nickel is expected to have limited downside due to cost support but may show a weakening trend in the medium - to - long - term due to supply surplus [3][5] - Tin prices are expected to have increased volatility, and it is necessary to focus on supply resumption and downstream demand [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals Copper - As of May 20, the Shanghai copper main 06 contract fell 0.26% to 77,540 yuan/ton. Macro factors are positive, but the demand has shown signs of weakening, and the inventory is accumulating at a low level [1] Aluminum - As of May 20, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract fell 0.45% to 20,075 yuan/ton. The Guinea issue affects the alumina price, and the downstream demand may weaken with the approaching off - season [2] Nickel - As of May 20, the Shanghai nickel main 06 contract fell 0.83% to 122,870 yuan/ton. The nickel market has a complex situation with cost support but supply surplus in the medium - to - long - term [3][5] Tin - As of May 20, the Shanghai tin main 06 contract rose 0.29% to 264,760 yuan/ton. The tin market has a tight raw material supply, and the price is affected by supply resumption and downstream demand [6] Spot Transaction Summary Copper - Spot copper prices rose, but the downstream acceptance of high - priced copper was limited, and the actual procurement was mainly based on rigid demand [7] Aluminum - The spot aluminum market showed a weak transaction, with the holder reluctant to sell at a low price and the downstream having a low procurement willingness [8] Alumina - The alumina spot market was active, with the price rising and the trading volume increasing [9] Zinc - The spot zinc market had a weak transaction, and the downstream entered the traditional off - season with low procurement willingness [10] Lead - The lead spot market had a general trading atmosphere, and the downstream replenished inventory according to rigid demand [11][12] Nickel - The nickel spot market had an improved transaction compared with the previous day, with the demand for rigid procurement increasing at low prices [13] Tin - The tin spot market had a slow sales situation, with some merchants having a strong wait - and - see attitude [14] Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 16,175 tons to 45,738 tons; LME copper inventory decreased by 3,575 tons to 170,750 tons [16] - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,351 tons to 61,146 tons; LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,525 tons to 390,925 tons [16] - SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts decreased by 175 tons to 1,526 tons; LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,075 tons to 156,725 tons [16] - SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts decreased by 5,067 tons to 44,980 tons; LME lead inventory decreased by 600 tons to 245,750 tons [16] - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 329 tons to 23,142 tons; LME nickel inventory increased by 90 tons to 202,098 tons [16] - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 94 tons to 8,025 tons; LME tin inventory decreased by 85 tons to 2,655 tons [16]
秦氏金升:5.14黄金破位确认跌势,伦敦金行情走势分析及操作建议
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-14 15:00
Group 1 - Gold prices fell sharply due to easing global trade tensions, which reduced concerns about a potential economic recession and diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][3] - The recent drop in gold prices saw a significant decline of $50 within three hours, breaking below the $3200 mark [1][3] - The U.S. April CPI annual rate decreased to 2.3%, weaker than market expectations, leading to market speculation of two interest rate cuts by 2025 totaling 56 basis points [3] Group 2 - The gold market is currently under a bearish correction, with the price failing to break the key resistance level of $3260 [5] - Technical indicators show negative pressure on gold prices, with the current price below the 50-day moving average and a negative signal from the relative strength index (RSI) [5] - The analysis suggests a continued downtrend, with a potential target of $2909 if the price breaks below the previous low of $3200 [3][5] Group 3 - The recommended trading strategy is to focus on short positions below $3200, with specific targets set at $3175 and $3150 [7] - The analysis emphasizes a cautious approach, combining technical and fundamental analysis while maintaining strict risk management practices [7]
日度策略参考-20250514
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 12:06
Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]
美债收益率、美元因美国通胀降温而下跌
news flash· 2025-05-13 13:06
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar weakened due to a cooling inflation environment, which alleviated bond sell-offs triggered by trade tensions [1] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year for April was reported at 2.3%, slightly down from 2.4% in March, marking the lowest reading since February 2021 [1] - The core CPI year-on-year remained at 2.8%, aligning with expectations [1] Group 2 - Following the inflation data release, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased to 4.442% [1] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield also fell to 3.975% [1] - The U.S. dollar index declined by 0.3% [1]