Group 1: International Gold Market - The current trading price of international gold is around 4419.54 CNY per gram, with a latest report of 4402.91 CNY per gram, reflecting a 1.69% increase, and a trading range between 4331.59 CNY and 4419.54 CNY [1] - The short-term outlook for international gold appears bullish, indicating potential upward movement in prices [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Outlook - David Rosenberg warns of significant challenges for the U.S. economy by 2026, predicting a substantial contraction in the job market that could weaken overall economic vitality [2] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. has risen from 4% in early 2025 to 4.6% by November of the same year, with expectations that it may exceed 5% and potentially reach 6% by year-end [2] - The Federal Reserve acknowledges the risks in the labor market and the potential for economic slowdown, which may lead to a more aggressive monetary policy response [2] Group 3: Inflation Expectations - Rosenberg expresses optimism regarding inflation, suggesting that the impact of tariffs from the Trump administration and declining housing prices may alleviate price pressures [3] - He anticipates that both overall inflation and core price increases will fall to or below the Federal Reserve's 2% target within the next year [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Gold prices are currently in a consolidation phase after a previous decline, trading within a range of 4350 to 4400 CNY per gram [4] - The support level is identified around 4350/4365 CNY, while resistance is noted at 4400-4402 CNY, indicating potential selling pressure in the short term [4] - The MACD indicator shows limited momentum recovery, while the RSI has risen above 50, suggesting a slight improvement in bullish sentiment, though strength remains insufficient [4]

目前，美国联邦基金利率水平仍然处于较高的水平，这对于缓解美国企业融资负担和美国债务利息负担 极其不利，甚至会将美国经济拖入衰退的泥潭。 美国经济在第一季度已经出现了0.2%的负增长，第二季度的经济情况似乎也并不乐观。特朗普总统的 一系列经济政策，特别是关税政策给美国经济蒙上了巨大的不确定性的阴影，使得美国经济的前景更加 扑朔迷离。 巴菲特先生说过："只有在潮水退去之后，我们才能够知道谁在裸泳"。 6月4日公布的数据显示，美国5月ADP就业人数从前值6万人大幅下降至3.7万人。作为美国非农就业数 据的先导数据的ADP就业人数的再次大幅恶化反映出美国就业市场已经出现了萎缩迹象。 笔者认为，如果不久后公布的美国最新非农就业数据也与ADP就业数据一样不景气，那么美联储在即将 召开的6月议息会议上重新开启降息进程的概率就会大大提升。 前期美联储对于货币政策一直保持观望态度的主要依据之一是美国就业市场仍然保持强劲。如果美国就 业市场的强劲状态出现松动，那么美联储对于货币政策的观望态度也会出现松动。 如果美联储在就业市场出现恶化迹象的情况下仍然维持美国联邦基金利率水平不变，那么未来美联储注 定要为其错失及时放松货币政策的时 ...