Group 1 - The U.S. long-term Treasury market is signaling unease, with the 30-year Treasury yield approaching 5%, the highest level since July, reflecting investor concerns over future inflation risks and potential impacts on the Federal Reserve's independence [1] - The yield curve has steepened, indicating that long-term rates are rising faster than short-term rates, although the 30-year yield closed at 4.913%, nearly unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - Analysts highlight that recent actions by Trump, including the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook and criticism of Fed Chair Powell, are raising fears about the Fed's independence and inflation expectations, drawing parallels to emerging market countries like Turkey [1][2] Group 2 - Political risks in the U.S. are perceived to be accelerating towards a "emerging market" model, characterized by increased political uncertainty and market instability, with the current political risk score for the U.S. at 41.79, nearing the average of 28 emerging market countries [2] - The correlation between U.S. political risk and the 30-year Treasury yield has strengthened since 2018, with the dollar index weakening since Trump's tariff announcements in April [2] - Despite rising political risks, the U.S. stock market remains resilient, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all posting gains, indicating a potential immunity to political uncertainty [3] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market's performance suggests that it may be less affected by political risks, with a phenomenon where higher risks correlate with rising S&P 500 values, attributed to the market's diversity and depth [3] - Market participants believe that Trump's interventions in the Fed and other institutions are narrowing the gap between the U.S. and emerging market risks, although a complete loss of Fed independence is still considered unlikely [3]