Core Viewpoint - The June retail data in the US shows a rebound in month-on-month growth, but the resilience of the consumer market should not be overestimated due to potential tariff impacts and inflation adjustments [4][5]. Retail Sales Data - In June, US retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.1% and recovering from a previous decline of 0.9% [2]. - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, rose by 0.5%, above the expected 0.3% and revised from a previous decline of 0.3% to a decline of 0.2% [2]. Market Reaction - Following the retail data release, major indices such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq saw gains of 0.52%, 0.54%, and 0.75% respectively [3]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.47%, while the 2-year yield rose by 3 basis points to 3.91% [3]. Economic Outlook - Despite the better-than-expected retail data, doubts remain about the resilience of the US economy, especially in light of poor employment data from June [4]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, with market expectations indicating a likelihood of two rate cuts in 2025, the first potentially in September [5].

Group 1: Retail Data Overview - In June 2025, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.1% and rebounding from a previous decline of 0.9%[2] - Core retail sales (excluding automobiles and gasoline) rose by 0.5%, exceeding the forecast of 0.3% and improving from a revised previous value of -0.2%[2] - Key sectors showing strong performance included grocery stores (+1.8%), automobiles (+1.2%), building materials (+0.9%), and clothing (+0.9%)[11] Group 2: Economic Implications - Despite the positive retail data, the resilience of the U.S. economy is questioned due to potential tariff impacts and inflation adjustments[4] - The actual retail sales growth, adjusted for inflation (CPI increase of 0.3%), was only 0.3% in June, indicating limited consumer strength[4][9] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious approach, with a 97.4% probability of no rate cut in July and a likelihood of two rate cuts in the second half of 2025[5][15]