宏观层面，今年票委、克利夫兰联储主席哈马克称，当前货币政策处于良好区间，美联储或长期维持利 率不变。目前美国通胀仍偏高，今年通胀率或接近3%，需有力证据证明价格持续回落。CME观察工具 显示，美联储3月维持利率不变的概率达80.4%。美国商务部季节性调整数据显示，12月整体零售销售 额环比零增长，远低于市场预期的0.4%，同比仅增2.4%。疲弱的零售销售数据与不及预期的就业成本 指数叠加，进一步强化了市场对美国经济动能放缓的预期。 基本面，供应上，近期电解铝运行产能变化不大，产量小幅增长；需求上，当前处于季节性消费淡季， 且春节临近，铝价波动不定，部分企业提前放假，铝加工企业开工率持续下滑，下游接货意愿低迷，需 求疲软。铝锭社库持续累积，当前库存高于近两年同期，对铝价上行形成压制。不过长期来看，铝供应 增量有限，需求长期向好，供需缺口预期强化，沪铝长期驱动未变。 总体来看，宏观情绪不定，基本面驱动力弱，国内春节休假氛围浓，下游消费意愿偏差、备库近完成， 且库存累积，今现铝或下跌。 长江铝价alu.ccmn.cn短评：美指续跌支撑金属估值但油股表现低迷施压，隔夜伦铝收平；国内春节休假 氛围浓，下游消费意愿偏差、 ...

Market Overview - On December 1, the cryptocurrency market experienced a significant drop, with Bitcoin falling below $86,000 and Ethereum dropping below $2,900. As of the report, Bitcoin was down 4.99% at $85,800, and Ethereum was down 5.41% at $2,829, while XRP and Dogecoin fell over 7% [1][4]. Liquidation Data - According to Coinglass, the number of liquidations in the last 24 hours reached 218,800 [3]. - The total liquidation amount over 24 hours was approximately $640.28 million, with $577.51 million liquidated in the last 12 hours [4]. Market Capitalization and Trading Volume - The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market was around $3.1 trillion, with an average weekly trading volume of $127 billion. Bitcoin's trading volume for the week was $59.9 billion, which is 31% lower than the average [4]. Institutional Participation and Market Sentiment - Hotcoin Research suggests that the market participant structure will change significantly by 2024-2025, with an increase in institutional funding, leading to price fluctuations being more driven by fundamentals and data rather than short-term sentiment [5]. - Bloomberg noted that the cryptocurrency market remains unstable, with a prolonged sell-off beginning in early October, when leveraged positions worth approximately $19 billion were liquidated. Despite a recovery to above $90,000, the latest sell-off has traders bracing for further declines [5]. Key Support Levels and Economic Indicators - FalconX's Sean McNulty indicated that the market is currently characterized by heightened risk aversion, with concerns about low inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and a lack of buyers at lower prices. The $80,000 level is identified as a critical support point [5]. - The upcoming week is expected to provide key insights into U.S. economic momentum, as policymakers consider interest rate trajectories through 2026. The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index report, which is a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve [6].