（原标题：巴西央行下调通胀指标至3.97%） 2月9日，巴西央行发布《焦点公告》，对全国广义消费者价格指数（IPCA），即巴西官方通胀指 标在2026年年底的预测值从3.99%下调至3.97%。对于2027年，通胀预测维持在3.8%不变；2028年和 2029年的预期均为3.5%。这是连续第五周下调2026年的通胀预期，目前该预测处于央行通胀目标区间 之内。 ...

黄金闪跌跳水后，又是大力回升，5200附近接连遇阻，又是深跌调整，迎来V型反弹70美金，整体横盘 震荡整理，多空角力，或再战5200的关口。 昨天5195附近，再空获利。 又是V型反弹，今天重回5200遇阻。 今天的走势 接连遇阻调整，横盘整理。 随着震荡持续，多空不断来回争夺。 上方先看5210的区间阻力，再次上破，那么继续看向5250的阻力。 当然了，下方再次回落。 下方可再探区间支撑，关注到5145的位置，看两个区域范围内的调整。 下方若跌破了5145，继续看向5093的支撑。 昨晚又是探底，触及5130后。 今天消息面 关注本周的美PPI月率，本月的重大的通胀指标。CPI爆冷之后，PPI或迎来很大的悬念，也再次影响美 联储的政策预期。 以及重点，今天又是周五，或谨防黑色星期五突然杀到，特别是美股市场不断出现意外的奇怪现象，或 再影响黄金大幅动荡。 对于现货黄金的投资，方向和趋势的判断尤其重要。更重要的是入场点和出场点的把握能力，说白了就 是准确率，这个是能够实现稳健获利的必要的前提条件。这个不是一两本书，或者一两年功夫实操就可 以锻炼出来的。而是需要长时间实操和结果和经验。 同时对于仓位风险的把控能力 ...

今天的走势 黄金上周二度下探，连续直线跳水，重挫200美金后。上演V型逆袭，疯狂拉升，修复跌幅后，今天又 是高开急涨70美金，再战5200的关口。 上周碰到4840，再度弹起。 一路狂奔，修复了5100的位置。 今天继续涨，而且急冲到了5170上方。 急速上扬，短期内存在调整的过程。 此位置支撑反弹，上方继续看挑战5200的关口。 再次突破，继续看向5300的位置。 同时，下方再次回调，跌破了5120，继续看向5060的支撑。 黄金本月第三次深度调整，再破高。连续三次的深V逆袭，底部不断抬升。多头力量非常的猛，整体依 然比较强势，再续涨上方可看向5400的区域。同时，下方再次调整，可看向5000的区域。 操作方面，黄金三度逆袭，多头卷土重来，继续看涨，关注5060和5120做多的机会。此外，黄金上方临 近关键阻力，关注5200和5300做空的机会。 上周主要因素： 一方面，美伊和谈，双方谈谈紧紧，又给全球紧张情绪放缓。以及重点，美股遭遇重挫，科技股放血， 引发连锁反应，进而波及到贵金属集体跳水，黄金接连直线大跌。 另外一方面，美伊反复无常，特朗普再释放紧张24小时，地缘风险骤升。以及重点，美最高法院判定关 税 ...

来源：宏观对冲陈凯丰Kevin - 核心个人消费支出（PCE）为何居高不下：美联储首选的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出（PCE）价 格指数在12月依然高企。该指数环比上涨2.9%（剔除食品和能源成本），高于11月的2.8%。这一涨幅 明显高于近期公布的CPI数据（1月份整体CPI环比上涨2.4%，核心CPI环比上涨2.5%）。两者之间的差 异主要反映了PCE数据中商品价格的贡献较高，而"住房"价格的贡献则低得多。 ——亚太地区：亚洲股市涨跌互现，结束了因假期而交易量较少的一周，各区域表现迥异。韩国股市继 续领涨，而日本和香港股市则表现落后。尽管PMI数据改善且通胀有所缓和，日经指数仍下跌略超过 1%。恒生指数在假期后开盘大幅下跌，主要受大型互联网平台疲软以及资金转向小型人工智能概念股 的影响。宏观方面，日本核心CPI维持在2.0%不变，整体通胀有所回落。日本、印度和澳大利亚的采购 经理人指数（PMI）更新数据普遍显示经济持续扩张，东南亚的贸易数据也凸显了强劲的电子产品需 求。 等等…… 特别声明：以上内容仅代表作者本人的观点或立场，不代表新浪财经头条的观点或立场。如因作品内 容、版权或其他问题需要与新浪财经头条 ...

US equities posted modest gains on Thursday as investors digested a strong January jobs report, fresh corporate earnings, and new labour market data, while keeping a close watch on inflation indicators that could shape the path of interest rates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 295 points, or about 0.6%. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, analyzing their market trends, supply - demand situations, and suggesting corresponding investment strategies based on these analyses [2] 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market Trend**: Last week, copper prices oscillated at a relatively high level, similar to gold. Before the Spring Festival, the overall open interest may shrink to 550,000 lots. In the long - term, the US $12 billion commercial stockpiling plan and the call from the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association to increase commercial reserves may encourage long - term funds to go long on copper at low prices. The price is expected to be lower before the Spring Festival and higher after it [2] - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: Copper concentrate supply is tight. Domestic smelter output is expected to be stable around the Spring Festival. The Shanghai copper premium is 35 yuan, and the Guangdong discount is 105 yuan. The social inventory is 331,300 tons [2] - **Overseas Situation**: There are many news of production cuts from traditional mainstream mining companies. The market is concerned about the US government's control over long - term copper resources. The LME copper inventory has increased to 184,300 tons, and the LME spot discount is $77 [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Hold a light position or conduct inter - period reverse arbitrage during the Spring Festival [2] Aluminum and Alumina - **Market Trend**: The market continues to oscillate. The domestic operating capacity of alumina is 95.05 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.5 million tons. The alumina balance remains in surplus, and the weekly inventory has increased by 55,000 tons to 5.114 million tons [2] - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic downstream leading aluminum enterprises decreased by 1.5% to 59.4% last week. High aluminum prices have continuously suppressed downstream demand, and some processing enterprises have entered the holiday in advance [2] - **Inventory and Spot**: The overall demand is weak. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 33,000 tons to 829,000 tons, and the social inventory of aluminum rods increased by 26,000 tons to 267,000 tons. The spot premium and discount have declined [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to the support effectiveness of the recent low point of 23,800 yuan. If it breaks, it will seek support at 23,000 yuan. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options [2] Zinc - **Market Trend**: The "Wash Panic" accelerated the release of bearish sentiment. The Shanghai zinc price fell 5.36% last week, and the decline slowed down at the 24,500 yuan/ton level. The LME zinc price oscillated at a high level and remained in the rebound channel [2] - **Spot and Supply**: The LME zinc inventory decreased slightly to 107,600 tons, and the 0 - 3 month spot discount narrowed to $21.56/ton. The SMM zinc social inventory increased to 148,500 tons, and the fundamental strength of the domestic and foreign markets showed differentiation again. The loss of zinc spot imports expanded to over 3,000 yuan/ton [2] - **Consumption**: As the Spring Festival approaches, most terminals are on holiday, and the operating rate of downstream zinc enterprises has dropped significantly. Only a small number of enterprises make rigid purchases at low prices. High prices suppress demand, and the downstream operating rate is expected to continue to decline in the next two weeks [2] - **Investment Strategy**: The Shanghai zinc market starts to reduce volatility for adjustment. The option double - selling strategy has good returns, and the profit space for single - side futures trading is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Lead - **Market Trend**: Last week, the lead prices of both domestic and foreign markets accelerated to test the lower support of the consolidation range. The Shanghai lead price fell 2.1%, and the LME lead price fell 1.48%. The import window remained open [2] - **Spot and Supply**: The LME lead inventory increased to 233,000 tons. The overseas surplus pressure was transmitted to the domestic market. The operating rates of SMM primary lead smelters and secondary lead smelters decreased. Some primary lead smelters in Hunan and Yunnan carried out maintenance or production cuts, and smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices [2] - **Consumption**: As the Spring Festival approaches, only a small number of downstream enterprises make rigid purchases at low prices. The spot trading volume has declined. The holiday time of battery enterprises has increased compared with previous years. Pay attention to the lead ingot inventory accumulation after the festival [2] - **Investment Strategy**: The lead price is at a low level, and the capital divergence has increased. The overall surplus situation remains unchanged. In the short term, both supply and demand are weak. The Shanghai lead price is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,500 - 17,800 yuan/ton [2] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Trend**: The Shanghai nickel price fell from a high level last week, and the market trading volume decreased while the open interest slowly increased. The Shanghai stainless steel price showed a similar trend [2] - **Macro and Demand**: The social inventory of stainless steel has continued to increase. Market confidence has declined, and trading is light. Only a small amount of rigid replenishment is made. Terminal downstream procurement has basically ended [2] - **Spot and Supply**: The Jinchuan nickel premium is 9,500 yuan, the imported nickel discount is 50 yuan, and the electrowon nickel is at par. The pure nickel inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 73,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory increased by 15,000 tons to 869,000 tons [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Market fear of high prices has emerged. It is recommended to be cautious [2] Tin - **Market Trend**: The Shanghai tin price is prone to follow the silver price. It shows a unilateral downward trend with relatively limited rebound. It is a small - volume variety, and the trading volume and open interest have a great impact around the Spring Festival [2] - **Supply**: The Indonesian exchange traded 2,720 tons of tin ingots in late January. There was a landslide in an Indonesian tin mine, but there is no news of impact on production. The earthquake in Myanmar is far from the Wa State production area. The market is concerned about the resumption of supply in the Wa State [2] - **Consumption**: The sharp decline in tin prices gives downstream enterprises an opportunity to stock up before the festival. The Steel Union tin inventory decreased by 1,658 tons to 9,898 tons last week. The global semiconductor sales in December 2025 continued to increase month - on - month [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to the high volatility of the overseas market with light trading. Also, pay attention to the inventory changes during and after the Spring Festival. The out - of - the - money call option selling strategy for the 2603 contract has realized profits. It was recommended to wait and see or go short with a light position against the MA20 moving average last week [2] Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Market**: The lithium carbonate futures oscillated downward last week, and the market trading was active. The exchange policy affected market participation. A large number of hedging positions have been closed during the rapid price increase [2] - **Spot Performance**: The spot price of Shanghai battery - grade lithium carbonate has dropped sharply. Mines are not willing to sell due to the price decline, and downstream enterprises have sufficient previous inventory and have lowered their acceptance prices for new orders [2] - **Macro and Demand**: The external strength has weakened significantly. The rebound of precious metals and non - ferrous metals is not enough to support market confidence. The power battery orders may decline, and the production schedule in February is expected to be greatly affected [2] - **Supply Factors**: The total market inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 105,000 tons. The smelter inventory decreased by 1,300 tons to 18,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 43,700 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 3,400 tons to 43,000 tons. The de - stocking speed has slowed down [2] - **Investment Strategy**: The lithium carbonate futures price has crashed, and the short - term uncertainty is extremely high. Pay attention to risk prevention and control [2] Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The industrial silicon futures oscillated downward, dragged down by the general decline of the non - ferrous metal sector and the expected implementation of organic silicon emission reduction. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market stocking is coming to an end, and the trading activity has decreased [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has shrunk significantly. The production cuts of large Xinjiang factories have led to a significant decline in the number of open furnaces. Downstream polysilicon is expected to cut production by more than 20,000 tons month - on - month. If the organic silicon industry achieves its emission reduction target in the first quarter, the industrial silicon demand will be dragged down by about 90,000 tons [2] - **Inventory**: The Xinjiang factory inventory has decreased slightly, and the social inventory has climbed to 562,000 tons, with a weekly inventory increase of 8,000 tons [2] - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, the price is affected by the volatility transmission of the metal sector and the negative news of the organic silicon industry. Pay attention to the support at 8,400 yuan/ton [2] Polysilicon - **Price**: The spot price of polysilicon has increased. The N - type re - feed material is 53,600 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,300 yuan/ton. Affected by the industry meeting last week, enterprises are holding up prices, but there is no spot transaction. The futures price briefly soared due to news, but the capacity expectation has not been realized, and the price has returned to oscillate around the 50,000 yuan/ton mark [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The production of leading enterprises decreased in January, and the monthly output dropped to around 100,000 tons. The output in February is expected to further drop below 80,000 tons. The production schedule of the silicon wafer sector in February is generally stable, and there may be a small supply - demand gap in polysilicon in February [2] - **Inventory**: The latest inventory of silicon material manufacturers is 341,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons [2] - **Investment Strategy**: The industry association announced the domestic photovoltaic new installation target of 180 - 240 GW in 2026, which meets market expectations. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reiterated the anti - involution orientation of the industry. After the emotional correction of the market, it is expected to oscillate around the 50,000 yuan/ton mark [2]

Group 1 - The UK business confidence index has risen to its highest level in eight months, indicating a potential recovery in economic growth following the budget announcement [1] - The Institute of Directors (IoD) reported that the business confidence index increased from -66% in December 2025 to -48% in January 2026, showing a rebound trend from near historical lows [1] - CEOs' confidence in their own companies rose to +14% in January from -4% in December, reflecting improved expectations for investment, hiring, and sales [1] Group 2 - Despite plans to increase taxes by £26 billion ($36 billion), businesses are largely exempt from these measures, while households are feeling the impact of increased taxation [2] - The hospitality sector, including pubs and live music venues, is receiving support from the Chancellor, which is crucial given the previous backlash against rising business tax rates [2] - The IoD noted that revenue expectations reached their highest point since September 2024, with key indicators tracking employee numbers and investment intentions also showing significant increases [2] Group 3 - The rise in business confidence and PMI is seen as a strong signal of economic recovery, while rising inflation indicators set a higher threshold for interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [3] - Economists expect the Bank of England to maintain interest rates at 3.75% in the upcoming meeting, with only one more rate cut anticipated this year [3] - The Monetary Policy Committee has been cautious since August 2024, having previously lowered rates from 5.25%, and there is a consensus to slow down the pace of rate cuts unless unexpected circumstances arise [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance levels, and support levels of various futures contracts on January 23, 2026, and the trend of futures main (continuous) contracts in January 2026 [2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro News and Trading Tips - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. It will also maintain the stability of the financial market and support the capital market [5]. - The first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal funds has been allocated, which will drive total investment of over 460 billion yuan [5]. - The central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations on January 23, with a net injection of 700 billion yuan [5]. - Six major state - owned banks will implement the fiscal discount policy for personal consumer loans, and the actual interest rate for some high - quality customers can enter the "2%" range [6]. - China will conduct a pilot program to extend the second - round land contracts by 30 years on a provincial - wide basis this year [6]. - From January 1, 2026, a project to provide pension service consumption subsidies to moderately and severely disabled elderly people will be implemented nationwide [6]. - The 2026 national college entrance examination will be held on June 7 and 8, and efforts will be made to optimize the discipline and major settings [6]. - In December 2025, the unemployment rates of the urban labor force aged 16 - 24, 25 - 29, and 30 - 59 were 16.5%, 6.9%, and 3.9% respectively [7]. - The US 2025 Q3 GDP final annualized quarterly growth was 4.4%, and the core PCE price index in November met expectations. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 200,000, lower than expected [7]. - Goldman Sachs significantly raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 from $4,900/oz to $5,400/oz [7]. - International precious metal futures generally rose, while US crude oil futures fell. London base metals generally rose [7][8]. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On January 22, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures had different performances. The short - term downward pressure of IF2603 and IH2603 increased slightly, while IC2603 and IM2603 showed a slight upward trend [9][10][11]. - It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contracts of stock index futures will be mostly in a strong or moderately strong oscillation. On January 23, the stock index futures will be in a strong oscillation [13]. Gold Futures - On January 22, the main contract AU2604 of gold futures had a slight downward oscillation. The short - term upward momentum weakened, and the downward pressure increased slightly [29]. - It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract of gold futures will be in a moderately strong oscillation and will reach a record high. On January 23, AU2604 will be in a strong oscillation and may reach a new high [29][30]. Silver Futures - On January 22, the main contract AG2604 of silver futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will be in a moderately strong oscillation and reach a new high. On January 23, AG2604 will be in a moderately strong oscillation and may reach a new high [33][34]. Copper Futures - On January 21, the main contract CU2603 of copper futures had a slight downward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will be in a moderately strong oscillation and reach a new high. On January 22, CU2603 will be in a weak oscillation [39]. Tin Futures - On January 22, the main contract SN2603 of tin futures had a downward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will be in a moderately strong oscillation and reach a new high. On January 23, SN2603 will be in a strong oscillation [42]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - On January 22, the main contract LC2605 of lithium carbonate futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, its main continuous contract will be in a moderately strong oscillation. On January 23, LC2605 will be in a wide - range strong oscillation [48][49]. Coking Coal Futures - On January 22, the main contract JM2605 of coking coal futures had a slight upward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, it will be in a wide - range oscillation. On January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [51]. Glass Futures - On January 22, the main contract FG605 of glass futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, it will be in a wide - range weak oscillation. On January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [57][58]. Soda Ash Futures - On January 22, the main contract SA605 of soda ash futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, it will be in a wide - range weak oscillation. On January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [62]. PTA Futures - On January 22, the main contract TA605 of PTA futures showed a strong upward oscillation. It is expected that on January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [68]. PVC Futures - On January 22, the main contract V2605 of PVC futures showed a strong upward oscillation. It is expected that on January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [70]. Methanol Futures - On January 22, the main contract MA605 of methanol futures showed a strong upward oscillation. It is expected that on January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [71]. Soybean Meal Futures - On January 22, the main contract M2605 of soybean meal futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that on January 23, it will be in a weak oscillation [73]. Natural Rubber Futures - On January 22, the main contract RU2605 of natural rubber futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that on January 23, it will be in a moderately strong oscillation [76].

当地时间1月22日，美国商务部和劳工统计局发布多个宏观经济数据。当天，美股三大股指集体高开。 多个宏观数据发布 物价方面，数据显示，美国2025年第三季度核心PCE指数年化终值环比升2.9%，预期升2.9%，初值升2.9%；PCE物价指数年化终值环比升2.8%，预期升 3.5%，初值升2.8%。而2025年11月份的PCE将在周四稍晚公布。 从2025年整体数据看，PCE数据已经不再充满"意外"，而是平稳运行。2024年5月，核心PCE跌破3%，宣告"2"时代的来临。一年多时间，数据一直围绕 3%上下波动。2025年11月份预期值为2.8%，依旧处于3%附近，即便稍微偏离预期，市场人士也不会感到意外。 而美联储关注的另外一个通胀指标，2025年11月份美国核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，低于同年9月份的3%。CPI和PCE虽然样本数据不完全相同，但都是描述消 费者的支出情况，共振性强。2025年11月份核心CPI数据下降，意味着该月PCE数据也有可能同步下降。基于此，PCE最终公布值低于机构预期（2.8%） 的可能性仍存。 就业方面，美国上周初请失业金人数为20万人，预期21万人，前值自19.8万人修正至19.9 ...

Economic Data Release - On January 22, the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Bureau of Labor Statistics released multiple macroeconomic data, leading to a collective high opening of the U.S. stock market [1][5]. Price Indicators - The core PCE index for Q3 2025 showed an annualized final value increase of 2.9%, matching expectations, while the PCE price index increased by 2.8%, below the expected 3.5% [3]. - The core CPI for November 2025 rose by 2.6%, down from 3% in September, indicating a potential decrease in PCE data for the same month [3]. Employment Data - Initial jobless claims for the previous week were reported at 200,000, below the expected 210,000, with the four-week average revised to 201,500 [4]. - Continuing claims were at 1.849 million, also below expectations of 1.9 million [4]. GDP Growth - The annualized real GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 was reported at 4.4%, slightly above the expected 4.3% [4]. - The total annualized real GDP for Q3 2025 was finalized at $240.268 billion, slightly revised from the initial estimate [4]. Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market saw a rebound, with major indices rising over 1% on January 21 due to easing geopolitical tensions following President Trump's decision to abandon tariff increases on eight European countries [6][7]. - As of January 22, the Dow Jones increased by 0.93%, the S&P 500 by 0.75%, and the Nasdaq by 0.96% [7][8]. Sector Performance - Major technology stocks experienced gains, with Meta rising over 3% and other tech giants like Google and Nvidia increasing by over 1% [8][9]. - Bank stocks also saw significant increases, with Deutsche Bank rising nearly 3% and other major banks gaining over 1% [9]. Market Sentiment - The easing of geopolitical concerns has led to a reversal of recent sell-offs, particularly benefiting traditional value sectors such as financials and energy [9].