| | 操作评级 | 2025年08月12日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | ななな | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 氧化铝 | なな女 | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 锌 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 错 | ななな | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 镇及不锈钢 立☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | ☆☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | ☆☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 工业硅 | ☆☆☆ | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 多晶硅 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周二沪铜震荡收阳,中美延长前期关税政策。现铜报79150元,上海平水铜升水扩至170元。市场等待美国通胀 指标。前期高位空单持有。 (铝&氧化铝&铝合金) 今日沪铝窄幅波动,华东现货贴水收窄20元至30元。 ...

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the US has increased, causing the US dollar to weaken in the short term. The probability of a rate cut in September has risen to about 80% [3]. - The US second - quarter economic growth rate was higher than expected, but business investment growth slowed. The inflation indicator PCE showed a slight rebound [1]. - The US Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time due to high economic uncertainty, a stable labor market, and high inflation [2]. - The US non - farm payrolls data was far lower than expected, and the previous two months' data were significantly revised down, leading to Trump's decision to replace the BLS局长 [2]. Key Data - The US second - quarter GDP grew 3% quarter - on - quarter, better than the expected 2.4% [1]. - In June, the US PCE annual increase rose from 2.3% to 2.6%, and the core PCE index rose 2.8% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.7% [1]. - In July, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000. The June figure was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, and the May figure was revised down by 125,000 [2]. - After the data release, the Dow Jones Industrial Average once fell more than 400 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell more than 2% [3]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has risen to about 80% [3]. Policy and Events - Trump signed an executive order to keep the minimum reciprocal tariff rate at 10% and increased the tariff on Canadian goods from 25% to 35%, while extending the current tariff rate on Mexican goods for 90 days [1]. - The Fed kept the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.5% unchanged [2]. - Trump ordered the replacement of the BLS局长 due to poor non - farm payrolls data [2]. US Dollar Index - The US dollar index rebounded in July and reached a two - month high of 100.257 last Friday but weakened short - term after the non - farm data, falling to 99 for consolidation. The resistance level is at 101 [3].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP grew by 3% in Q2, surpassing the market expectation of 2.4%[1] - The PCE price index rose from 2.3% to 2.6% year-on-year in June, with core PCE increasing to 2.8%[1] - Non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 110,000[2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive hold[2] - Following the employment report, the probability of a rate cut in September surged to approximately 80%[3] - The Fed's hawkish stance previously led to a six-day rise in the U.S. dollar index, which reached a high of 100.257[3] Group 3: Market Reactions - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 400 points after the employment data release, while the Nasdaq dropped over 2%[3] - The U.S. dollar index experienced short-term weakness, retreating to around 99 after the non-farm payroll data[3]

Zaner Metals副总裁兼高级金属策略师Peter Grant表示："随着8月1日关税最后期限的临近，我们看到贸 易不确定性有所上升，今日只是重新出现少量避险买盘。" 世界黄金协会将需求增长归因于市场对包括黄金ETF和金币及金条在内的投资需求强劲。 另外，市场分析人士将金价走弱、白银期价遭受强劲抛售压力部分归因于过去两天美铜期价暴跌带来的 溢出性影响。因美国总统特朗普宣布的美国进口铜关税政策将精炼铜排除在50%进口关税之外， COMEX市场铜期价前一交易日暴跌超18%，31日继续惯性下跌超4%。月线图上，COMEX基准铜期货 下跌14.38%，创下2011年9月以来的最大月度跌幅，也结束了此前连续两个月上涨的走势。 消息面上，美国商务部31日发布的数据显示，美联储最青睐的通胀指标美国个人消费支出（PCE）价格 指数6月同比上涨2.6%，高于预期的2.5%；环比上涨0.3%，符合预期。不过，黄金市场对最新的通胀数 据反应平平。 另外，在经济不确定性加剧和金价创纪录的背景下，散户投资者大举重返市场，重新点燃了全球黄金需 求。世界黄金协会在其新发布的第二季度黄金需求趋势报告中强调，尽管金价创下历史新高，但今年 ...

Group 1: Market Adjustments - The bond market experienced significant adjustments from July 21 to 25, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.73% (+6.9bp) and the 30-year yield reaching 1.95% (+7.5bp) due to concentrated negative factors[11] - The average duration of interest rate bond funds, credit bond funds, and financial bond funds has decreased to 3.47 years, 1.24 years, and 1.49 years respectively, indicating a return to relatively safe positions after previously high durations[22] - The net outflow of funds from the banking system dropped significantly from over 4 trillion yuan in early July to less than 3 trillion yuan by July 25, raising concerns in the bond market[24] Group 2: Redemption Pressures - From July 21 to 25, the net subscription index for pure bond funds showed negative values, with significant redemption pressures peaking at -29.2 on July 24[27] - The total scale of wealth management products decreased by 125.2 billion yuan to 30.95 trillion yuan, reflecting redemption pressures amid a strong performance in equity and commodity markets[43] - Despite the redemption pressures, wealth management products continued to show net buying behavior, with a total net purchase of 107.6 billion yuan during the same period, indicating that liquidity management pressures remain manageable[51] Group 3: Risk Preferences and Market Outlook - The recent surge in commodity prices, with increases of 73.4% for coking coal and 43.3% for polysilicon, has raised concerns about inflation and its potential impact on the bond market[33] - The bond market may have already passed its most challenging period, with expectations of a stable funding environment supported by the central bank's actions[41] - The upcoming clarity from U.S.-China negotiations and the July Politburo meeting may influence risk preferences, with potential short-term cooling in the stock market expected[41]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report analyzes various commodities and financial markets, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It provides insights into price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and potential investment opportunities and risks for each sector [1][2][3] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Brent 09 contract fell 2.11%. The upside potential of oil prices above $70/barrel is limited, but the bottom is expected to rise in Q3 [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil demand is weak, and its cracking spread is declining. Low - sulfur fuel oil has no obvious demand driver, and its cracking spread is also decreasing [21] - **Asphalt**: Supply increase flexibility is to be observed. Demand is weak but has repair expectations. Prices follow crude oil, with limited upside before demand improvement [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Middle - East production pressure persists. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation in summer, with prices oscillating weakly [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are volatile due to high uncertainties in US tariff policies and EU counter - measures. Tonight's US CPI data is to be watched [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Prices are likely to fall in the short - term. Short positions can be held or option strategies can be used [3] - **Aluminum**: There is short - term callback pressure as the price breaks the upward trend line and inventories increase [4] - **Zinc**: Short - term price decline is difficult, but mid - term short - selling is still recommended due to increasing supply [7] - **Lead**: Prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Long positions can be held with support at 17,000 [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel has room for rebound, but short - selling opportunities should be awaited [9] - **Tin**: Short - selling is recommended as the price shows weakening resilience [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Short - selling positions can be gradually established as the price has limited upside due to sufficient supply [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices are expected to be strong, driven by improving fundamentals and polysilicon sentiment [12] - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [13] - **Ferrous Metals** - **Iron Ore**: Prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, following the trend of finished steel products [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Prices are likely to rise in the short - term, following the steel market [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon & Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Prices are expected to oscillate, with limited ability to follow the rise of steel prices [18][19] Chemicals - **Benzene & Its Derivatives**: Pure benzene has cost drag from falling oil prices. Seasonal supply - demand improvement is expected in Q3, but it will face pressure in Q4. Styrene is in a range - bound pattern, with cost support [26][27] - **Polyolefins**: Polyethylene and polypropylene prices are in a range - bound pattern. Supply is expected to increase, while demand is weak [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices may follow market sentiment. Caustic soda prices are expected to be strong [29] - **PX & PTA**: They are in a narrow - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the repair of PTA processing margins [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply - demand contradiction is not obvious. There are both positive and negative factors in the market [31] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber can be considered long. Bottle - chip's processing margin repair is limited [32] Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oilseeds** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean report is neutral - bearish. Domestic soybean meal is expected to oscillate [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Long - term, vegetable oils can be considered long at low prices. Short - term, policy and weather should be monitored [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The short - term trend is not obvious. It is recommended to wait and see [38][39] - **Corn**: Domestic corn futures are expected to oscillate at the bottom [41] - **Livestock & Poultry** - **Hogs**: The price has downward pressure in the medium - term. Hedging can be considered [42] - **Eggs**: The short - term downside is limited. The long - term cycle has not bottomed out [43] - **Cotton & Sugar** - **Cotton**: US cotton is rising, but the USDA report is bearish. Domestic cotton long positions can be closed temporarily [44] - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure. Domestic sugar is expected to oscillate [45] - **Fruits** - **Apples**: The new - season production estimate is bearish. A short - selling strategy can be maintained [46] Others - **Shipping**: The SCFIS European route index rose 7.3%. Short - selling of off - season contracts can be considered at high prices [20] - **Glass**: The short - term price may follow market sentiment. Long - term, supply contraction is needed for a significant rise [33] - **Rubber**: The natural rubber supply is increasing, while the synthetic rubber supply is decreasing. RU&NR can be observed, and BR can be considered for a rebound [34] - **Paper Pulp**: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [48] - **Stock Index**: The short - term market risk preference is slightly strong. Technology growth stocks can be increased in the portfolio [49] - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - term long - position strategy should be cautious. A curve - steepening strategy can be considered [50]

降；但海外库存持稳。技术面，持仓减量空头减弱，突破MA10压力，预计宽幅震荡。操作上，建议暂时观 望。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-06-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 120830 | 350 08-09月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -80 | -10 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15190 | 40 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 76791 | -1947 | | ...

| | | 延续去库，LME注销仓单增加，升贴水上升，LME锡强势带动国内价格。技术面，持仓减量多头减弱，站上 免责声明 MA60关口。操作上，建议暂时观望，参考26.5-27.2。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 沪锡产业日报 2025-06-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 268110 | -760 LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 33565 | -245 | | | 8月-9月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -20 | -110 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 31484 | -1518 | | | 期货前 ...

当地时间6月27日，欧美股市全线上涨。法国CAC40指数、德国DAX指数均涨逾1%；纳斯达克指数、 标普500指数均创历史新高。 美股大型科技股涨跌不一。英伟达股价再创历史新高， 总市值超3.8万亿美元，继续为位居全球市值第 一的公司。热门中概股尾盘直线拉升，纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨0.22%。现货黄金价格跌逾1%，国际 原油价格小幅下跌。 纳斯达克指数、标普500指数均创历史新高 当地时间6月27日， 美股三大指数高开高走。截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数上涨1%，纳斯达克指数上涨 0.52%，标普500指数上涨0.52%，纳斯达克指数、标普500指数均创历史新高。 欧洲主要股指全线上涨。截至收盘，英国富时100指数上涨0.72%，法国CAC40指数上涨1.78%，德国 DAX指数上涨1.62%，意大利MIB指数上涨0.99%，欧洲STOXX50指数上涨1.56%。 | 美洲市场 広 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | 43819.27 | 20273.46 +432.43 +1.00% +105.55 +0.52% +32.05 +0.52% | ...

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market indices opened higher, with the Nasdaq Composite Index reaching a new historical high, surpassing the previous peak from December 2024 [1] - The S&P 500 Index also set a new historical high, breaking through the February 2025 high [1] - Chinese concept stocks continued to adjust, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index declining, and specific stocks like Zai Ding Pharmaceutical and Li Auto experiencing drops of nearly 4% and over 3%, respectively [1] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, with spot gold falling over 2% at one point, primarily due to a decrease in geopolitical risks following Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's acceptance of a ceasefire with Iran [2][3] - The current high prices of gold are facing downward pressure, and investors are advised to be cautious, while silver is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern, potentially outperforming gold in the context of high gold-silver ratios and the release of overseas risks [3] Group 3: Inflation Indicators - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key inflation measure in the U.S., showed a month-over-month increase of 0.1% in May, with the core PCE price index rising by 0.2% when excluding food and energy prices [4] - The PCE price index is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve for monetary policy decisions, making it a significant data point for market participants [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Expectations - Following the release of inflation data, traders are anticipating that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates starting in September, with increased bets on three rate cuts in 2025 [5]