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铅周报:沪铅或延续震荡趋势运行-20250609
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 02:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price is expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend [4][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情复盘 - **期货价格**: Last week, the price of the main contract PB2507 of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated between around 16,530 yuan/ton and 16,778 yuan/ton. The LME lead futures contract price fluctuated between 1959 - 1994 US dollars/ton [8][12] 3.2现货分析 - As of June 6, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 16,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,525 yuan/ton, 16,585 yuan/ton, and 16,525 yuan/ton respectively. On June 6, the 1 lead premium remained at a discount of about - 190 yuan/ton [15] 3.3供需情况 - As of May 30, 2025, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 500 yuan/metal ton, 500 yuan/metal ton, and 1,100 yuan/metal ton respectively. As of April 30, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 664,000 tons, a decrease of 73,000 tons from the previous month and a 1% year - on - year decrease. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [21] 3.4库存情况 - As of June 6, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange refined lead inventory was 47,936 tons, an increase of 1,436 tons from the previous week. As of June 5, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 282,650 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 16.47% [27] 3.5基本面分析 - Multiple senior Fed officials indicated that inflation pressure is still higher than the risk brought by the weak employment market, suggesting that the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged for a longer time. The US economic and policy uncertainty is high, and tariff hikes bring cost and price increase pressure. The lead discount continues to widen. The lead processing fee is gradually recovering but still at a low level. Lead production has decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, while the import volume of refined lead has increased. The Shanghai lead inventory has slightly recovered and is at a low level in recent years, while the LME lead inventory continues to rise and is at a high level in recent years [3][33] 3.6后市展望 - The lead price is expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend [4][34]