Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - The lead price is under pressure above due to weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm at high prices, improved refinery profits, and better supply tightness. The previous short positions should be held, and continuous attention should be paid to the impact of raw materials on refinery operations [1] - The zinc market fundamentals remain weak, and the zinc price may be under short - term pressure. In the medium - term, the fourth - quarter ore supply will tighten, providing some support to the zinc price. The trading strategy is to hold previous short positions and conduct range trading, while remaining vigilant about potential risks [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price Movement**: On the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.72% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures also dropped by 0.72% [1] - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, processing fees are likely to rise, but it has no substantial impact on refinery operations. Some refineries have maintenance plans. In the secondary lead sector, operations in Anhui recovered and climbed after resuming production, while those in Henan declined due to environmental protection. The terminal market improved, and the demand for lead batteries increased [1] - **Supply - demand Situation**: Downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened at high lead prices, refinery profits improved, and the supply shortage improved [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold previous short positions [1] Zinc - **Price Movement**: On the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.36% compared to the previous day, and the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures dropped by 0.69%. The zinc ingot premium in Shanghai increased by 30 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton, while that in Tianjin increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, and that in Guangdong decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton [1] - **Fundamentals**: Refineries actively purchased domestic zinc ores, the domestic ore supply was tight, and processing fees were expected to decline. The refinery profit and production enthusiasm improved, and the monthly output was expected to remain around 600,000 tons. The demand was weak, and some downstream operations were affected by cold weather and environmental protection [1] - **Supply - demand Situation**: The zinc market fundamentals were weak in the short - term, and the zinc price may be under pressure. In the medium - term, the tightening of ore supply will support the zinc price [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold previous short positions and conduct range trading [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For lead, due to high lead prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Meanwhile, refinery profits are good, and refinery operations have rebounded, improving the tight supply situation. As a result, lead prices face upward pressure [1]. - For zinc, overseas structural risks have diminished, and there is insufficient upward momentum for zinc prices. Zinc prices are under pressure. In the medium - term, the fourth - quarter zinc ore supply will tighten, and TC is likely to fall, which will support zinc prices to some extent [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,500.00 yuan/ton, up 1.01% [1]. - Shanghai lead futures main contract closing price was 17,650.00 yuan/ton, down 0.06% [1]. - LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,092.00 dollars/ton, unchanged [1]. - The ratio of Shanghai - London lead prices was 8.44 [1]. Fundamental Information - In the central China region, large lead smelters are affected by environmental control, with raw material arrivals slightly affected and the disassembly volume of waste lead - acid batteries declining. If environmental control is lifted on Saturday, the disassembly volume may increase slightly next week [1]. - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some smelters have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead has a small - scale fluctuation [1]. - The operation of secondary lead has recovered to over 50%, with supply increasing, mainly for delivering previous scattered orders, and the inventory accumulation of refineries is not obvious [1]. - Terminal markets have improved, and the operation of lead - battery enterprises is okay, with demand increasing [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold previous short positions [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,560.00 yuan/ton, up 0.09% [1]. - Shanghai zinc futures main contract closing price was 22,740.00 yuan/ton, up 0.26% [1]. - LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 3,072.00 dollars/ton, unchanged [1]. - The ratio of Shanghai - London zinc prices was 7.40, up 0.26% [1]. Fundamental Information - Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. In October, domestic TC may still decline. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and monthly production is expected to be around 600,000 tons [1]. - There is no significant improvement in demand. With the continuous deterioration of the Shanghai - London ratio, the zinc ingot export window is expected to open [1]. Trading Strategy - Lightly short at high levels [1].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Lead prices are likely to fluctuate mainly. The price volatility of lead is narrowing, and arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to wait and see for options contracts [5][40] Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2511 of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated between around 17,035 yuan/ton and 17,200 yuan/ton [9] - Last week, the price of LME lead futures contracts fluctuated between 1,984 - 2,017 US dollars/ton [13] 2. Macroeconomic Aspects - In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year-on-year in real terms and 0.37% month-on-month. From January to August, it increased by 6.2% year-on-year. Among 41 major industries, 31 had year-on-year growth in added value in August [16] 3. Spot Analysis - As of September 26, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 17,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 17,025 yuan/ton, 16,970 yuan/ton, and 17,040 yuan/ton respectively. The premium/discount of 1 lead was around - 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [19] 4. Supply and Demand - In July 2025, global lead mine production was 379.9 thousand tons, a decrease of 12 thousand tons from the previous month, at a relatively low level in the past 5 years. As of September 19, 2025, the average processing fees in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 700 yuan/metal ton, 500 yuan/metal ton, and 500 yuan/metal ton respectively, and the average processing fee in Kunming was 280 yuan/metal ton. As of August 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead production was 66.7 million tons, an increase of 3.8 million tons from the previous month and 3.7% year - on - year, at a relatively high level in the past 5 years [25] 5. Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 124,626 tons, a decrease of 3,108 tons from the previous week. As of September 25, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 219,550 tons, a decrease of 175 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 10.14% [34] 6. Fundamental Analysis - Fed new governor Milan advocates more aggressive interest rate cuts, aiming to lower rates by 150 - 200 basis points. Global lead mine production decreased slightly, lead processing fees continued to decline, lead production in August increased month - on - month and was at a high level in recent years. Shanghai lead inventory continued to decline and was at a moderate level, while LME lead inventory continued to decline but remained at a high level in recent years [39] 7. Future Outlook - Lead prices are likely to fluctuate mainly. The price volatility of lead is narrowing, and arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to wait and see for options contracts [40]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. With Powell's dovish remarks and increased market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, lead prices are expected to remain range - bound [1]. - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season and inventory is accumulating. However, the dovish remarks from Powell and increased expectations of a Fed rate cut in September provide some support, and short - term zinc prices are expected to trade in a range [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Market - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained flat, the closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract fell by 0.15%. The Shanghai lead basis increased by 25 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton. Other spreads also showed certain changes [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active lead futures contract decreased by 9.12% to 39,854 lots, while the open interest increased by 3.73% to 51,017 lots. The trading - to - open - interest ratio decreased by 12.39% to 0.78 [1]. - **Inventory**: LME lead inventory remained unchanged at 259,550 tons, and Shanghai lead warehouse receipts decreased by 0.91% to 56,801 tons [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase as some refineries resume production. In the secondary lead sector, due to high waste lead - acid battery prices and limited supplies, some refineries cut or stopped production. Terminal demand has not improved significantly, and dealers are mainly digesting inventory [1]. - **News**: On September 1, 2025, the new national standard for electric bicycles was officially implemented. On August 29, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 41.07 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 800 lots to 161,075 lots [1]. Zinc Market - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots rose by 0.41%, and the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract rose by 0.16%. The Shanghai zinc basis increased by 55 yuan/ton to - 145 yuan/ton. Zinc ingot premiums in different regions decreased [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract increased by 0.05% to 139,706 lots, and the open interest decreased by 0.35% to 116,185 lots. The trading - to - open - interest ratio increased by 0.40% to 1.20 [1]. - **Inventory**: LME zinc inventory remained unchanged at 55,875 tons, and Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 37,957 tons. As of September 1, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven locations increased to 146,300 tons [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The supply of zinc is increasing, but demand is affected by the off - season and environmental restrictions in the north, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is limited [1]. - **News**: A zinc smelter in Guangxi will stop production for maintenance from September 7 due to a temporary interruption in zinc concentrate supply, with an expected impact of 10,000 tons [1].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The lead price is expected to show a mainly oscillating and moderately upward trend [4][35] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2509 of Shanghai lead futures showed a weak oscillating trend, ranging from around 16,615 yuan/ton to about 17,085 yuan/ton [9] - Last week, the price of LME lead futures contracts was around 1,961 - 2,037 US dollars/ton, showing an oscillating and weakening trend [13] 2. Spot Analysis - As of August 1, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 16,690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,460 yuan/ton, 16,565 yuan/ton, and 16,480 yuan/ton respectively. The premium/discount of 1 lead was maintained at around a discount of - 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [16] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - As of July 25, 2025, the average processing fees (factory - delivered prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 400 yuan/metal ton, 300 yuan/metal ton, and 700 yuan/metal ton respectively. As of June 30, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 660,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [22] 4. Inventory Situation - As of August 1, 2025, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 63,283 tons, an increase of 29 tons from the previous week. As of August 1, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 275,325 tons, a decrease of 1,175 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 26.73% [28] 5. Fundamental Analysis - On July 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged between 4.25% and 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive "standstill" in 2025. Global lead supply and demand are basically balanced, with both lead consumption and lead supply decreasing. Global lead mine production continues to grow. Lead processing fees have changed little and remain at a low level. Lead production has maintained year - on - year growth and ended the month - on - month decline. The Shanghai lead inventory has slightly increased, and the inventory level is at a moderate level in recent years. The LME lead inventory has decreased, and the inventory level is at a high level in recent years [3][34] 6. Future Outlook - The lead price is expected to show a mainly oscillating and moderately upward trend [4][35]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Lead prices are likely to move in a volatile trend [1][4][34] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2508 of Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, ranging from around 17,090 yuan/ton to about 17,315 yuan/ton [7] - Last week, the price of the LME lead futures contract was running around 2,034 - 2,073 US dollars/ton, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend [11] 2. Spot Analysis - As of July 4, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 17,260 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 17,075 yuan/ton, 17,080 yuan/ton, and 17,085 yuan/ton respectively [14] - As of July 4, 2025, the premium/discount of 1 lead remained around a discount of - 195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [14] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - As of June 27, 2025, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 900 yuan/metal ton, 800 yuan/metal ton, and 700 yuan/metal ton respectively [20] - As of May 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 649,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 5.7%. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at an average level compared with the past five years [20] 4. Inventory Situation - As of July 4, 2025, the refined lead inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 53,303 tons, an increase of 1,374 tons from the previous week [26] - As of July 4, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 263,275 tons, a decrease of 2,625 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.34% [26] 5. Fundamental Analysis - The US non - farm payrolls report for June was unexpectedly much stronger than expected. The Fed may adopt a wait - and - see attitude, and the Fed's interest rate cut process may be postponed [3][33] - The lead discount has slightly widened, and the lead processing fee is still in the bottom area [3][33] - Lead production has decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [3][33] - The Shanghai lead inventory has slightly increased, and the inventory level is at a moderate level in recent years. The LME lead inventory has decreased, and the inventory level is at a high level in recent years [3][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price is expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend [4][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情复盘 - **期货价格**: Last week, the price of the main contract PB2507 of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated between around 16,530 yuan/ton and 16,778 yuan/ton. The LME lead futures contract price fluctuated between 1959 - 1994 US dollars/ton [8][12] 3.2现货分析 - As of June 6, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 16,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,525 yuan/ton, 16,585 yuan/ton, and 16,525 yuan/ton respectively. On June 6, the 1 lead premium remained at a discount of about - 190 yuan/ton [15] 3.3供需情况 - As of May 30, 2025, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 500 yuan/metal ton, 500 yuan/metal ton, and 1,100 yuan/metal ton respectively. As of April 30, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 664,000 tons, a decrease of 73,000 tons from the previous month and a 1% year - on - year decrease. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [21] 3.4库存情况 - As of June 6, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange refined lead inventory was 47,936 tons, an increase of 1,436 tons from the previous week. As of June 5, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 282,650 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 16.47% [27] 3.5基本面分析 - Multiple senior Fed officials indicated that inflation pressure is still higher than the risk brought by the weak employment market, suggesting that the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged for a longer time. The US economic and policy uncertainty is high, and tariff hikes bring cost and price increase pressure. The lead discount continues to widen. The lead processing fee is gradually recovering but still at a low level. Lead production has decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, while the import volume of refined lead has increased. The Shanghai lead inventory has slightly recovered and is at a low level in recent years, while the LME lead inventory continues to rise and is at a high level in recent years [3][33] 3.6后市展望 - The lead price is expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend [4][34]