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百利好晚盘分析:宽松预期明显 金价偏强运行
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-06 09:17
Group 1: Gold - President Trump indicated plans to announce a short-term replacement for the Federal Reserve's recent resignation, suggesting a likely inclination towards interest rate cuts, which may boost gold prices [1] - The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for July fell to 50.1, below the expected 51.5, while the final S&P Global Services PMI was slightly above expectations at 55.7, indicating overall weak economic data [1] - Analyst Chen Yu from Bailihau believes that the weakening economic data in the U.S. may pave the way for potential interest rate cuts, increasing the likelihood of rising gold prices [1] - Technically, the gold market has shown a strong upward trend, with multiple days of small gains and the price above the 20-day moving average, indicating further upward potential [1] Group 2: Oil - President Trump will decide on potential sanctions against countries purchasing Russian energy after meetings with Middle Eastern and Russian representatives, which could significantly impact oil prices [2] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict may see a potential air ceasefire, but a full ceasefire is not agreed upon, which could exert downward pressure on oil prices [2] - OPEC's production in June increased to 27.237 million barrels per day, up by 219,000 barrels from May, indicating a rise in output [2] - The U.S. remains in a demand peak season, providing short-term support for oil prices, but long-term economic growth concerns may lead to a decline in oil demand [2] - Technically, the oil market has shown weakness with multiple days of declines, and if it breaks below previous lows, it may open up further downside potential [2] Group 3: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has recently tested and found support at the 62-day moving average, indicating a potential for further upward movement [3] Group 4: Copper - The copper market experienced a significant decline last week, closing with a large bearish candle, indicating short-term weakness [4] - The price has broken below the moving average system, suggesting a likely continuation of weak adjustments in the near term [4]