Core Viewpoint - The synthetic rubber market is experiencing downward pressure due to weak demand from the tire sector and declining crude oil prices, leading to a forecast of weak oscillation for synthetic rubber futures contracts [1][5]. Group 1: Cost Support Weakening - The main raw materials for synthetic rubber, butadiene and styrene, are derived from the oil refining process, with butadiene accounting for 95% of the cost in polybutadiene rubber and approximately 70% in styrene-butadiene rubber [2]. - Recent positive signals from the US-Russia meeting have led to a decrease in geopolitical risk premium in the oil market, contributing to a continuous decline in crude oil prices and weakening cost support for synthetic rubber [2]. Group 2: Production Recovery - Domestic production of polybutadiene rubber saw a slight increase in July, with a total output of 129,200 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.7% and a year-on-year increase of 27.0% [3]. - Despite some facilities undergoing maintenance, the resumption of operations at several plants is expected to sustain production growth into August [3]. Group 3: Demand Decline - The inventory levels of semi-steel tire manufacturers have remained high, with an average turnover period of 46.73 days as of August 14, reflecting a month-on-month increase [4]. - Tire exports have shown a decline, with June exports of passenger car tires at 279,100 tons, down 3.5% month-on-month and 11.8% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in demand from key markets like the EU [4]. Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - The combination of reduced geopolitical risk, increased production capacity, and declining demand pressures suggests that synthetic rubber futures are likely to maintain a weak oscillation trend in the short term [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bearish outlook on the fuel oil industry [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the expected oversupply in the oil market, the international and domestic crude oil futures prices have been declining, dragging down the high - sulfur fuel oil futures 2510 contract. With the cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the poor supply - demand structure of fuel oil, the contract is expected to remain weak [2][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Impact of Geopolitical Events on Oil Prices - After the US - Russia summit, although no agreement was reached on issues such as a cease - fire in Ukraine, both sides considered the meeting constructive. With more leaders planning to meet, the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to cool down, leading to a shrinkage of the international crude oil futures premium. As fuel oil prices are 91.5% correlated with crude oil prices, the cost support for high - sulfur fuel oil futures has weakened [3] Asian Fuel Oil Supply Situation - Since late July, the Asian fuel oil market has been in a state of continuous oversupply. More fuel oil, including that from the Middle East and Russia, is flowing into Asia. The spot spread of Asian high - sulfur fuel oil has fallen to a three - year low, with ample supply and weak downstream demand. The fuel oil arbitrage cargo has been steadily flowing into the Asian market, and the seasonal power generation demand in South Asian countries has not improved the market fundamentals [4] Domestic Fuel Oil Demand Situation - Since mid - August, the weekly wholesale and ex - warehouse volume of domestic marine heavy - fuel oil has decreased by 2.09% (0.15 tons) to 7.04 tons. The overall market demand is weak, with cautious procurement and sales by downstream enterprises, sparse orders, and insufficient market buying sentiment. Only in Shandong, due to the small - scale rigid - demand purchases by some ship suppliers, the ex - warehouse volume has increased [5]

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration have lowered their forecasts for international oil prices for the next two years due to expectations of oversupply in the oil market, leading to a decline in both domestic and international crude oil futures prices [1][2] Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - The recent meeting between U.S. and Russian leaders in Alaska did not yield any agreements but was deemed constructive, indicating a potential de-escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has contributed to a reduction in international crude oil price premiums [2] - Despite significant differences remaining between the U.S. and Russia regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation, there is a growing optimism that the conflict may cool down, impacting oil market dynamics [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is a notable oversupply in the Asian low-sulfur fuel oil market since late July, while high-sulfur fuel oil prices have dropped to a near three-year low due to ample supply and weak downstream demand [3] - The influx of fuel oil arbitrage cargoes into the Asian market has contributed to a stable spot price differential for fuel oil, although trading activity remains weak with significant discrepancies in pricing between buyers and sellers [3] Group 3: Downstream Market Behavior - The shipping, power generation, and refining sectors are the primary consumers of fuel oil, with shipping fuel consumption being the largest segment. Recent data shows a decrease in wholesale outflow of marine heavy oil, attributed to weak domestic market demand and cautious procurement by downstream enterprises [4] - Overall, the expectation of a cooling Russia-Ukraine conflict, combined with a shrinking premium in the international crude oil market and rising oversupply expectations, suggests that the price focus for crude oil may shift downward, further weakening the cost support for fuel oil [4]

Group 1: Gold - President Trump indicated plans to announce a short-term replacement for the Federal Reserve's recent resignation, suggesting a likely inclination towards interest rate cuts, which may boost gold prices [1] - The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for July fell to 50.1, below the expected 51.5, while the final S&P Global Services PMI was slightly above expectations at 55.7, indicating overall weak economic data [1] - Analyst Chen Yu from Bailihau believes that the weakening economic data in the U.S. may pave the way for potential interest rate cuts, increasing the likelihood of rising gold prices [1] - Technically, the gold market has shown a strong upward trend, with multiple days of small gains and the price above the 20-day moving average, indicating further upward potential [1] Group 2: Oil - President Trump will decide on potential sanctions against countries purchasing Russian energy after meetings with Middle Eastern and Russian representatives, which could significantly impact oil prices [2] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict may see a potential air ceasefire, but a full ceasefire is not agreed upon, which could exert downward pressure on oil prices [2] - OPEC's production in June increased to 27.237 million barrels per day, up by 219,000 barrels from May, indicating a rise in output [2] - The U.S. remains in a demand peak season, providing short-term support for oil prices, but long-term economic growth concerns may lead to a decline in oil demand [2] - Technically, the oil market has shown weakness with multiple days of declines, and if it breaks below previous lows, it may open up further downside potential [2] Group 3: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has recently tested and found support at the 62-day moving average, indicating a potential for further upward movement [3] Group 4: Copper - The copper market experienced a significant decline last week, closing with a large bearish candle, indicating short-term weakness [4] - The price has broken below the moving average system, suggesting a likely continuation of weak adjustments in the near term [4]