上周五，美俄两国元首在美国阿拉斯加州展开会晤，经过两个小时 40 分钟的会谈后，双方并没有达 成任何的协议，但是都表示这次会晤富有建设性，并且约定下一次在莫斯科继续谈。美俄双方对会晤评价 较为积极，但未就俄乌停火等问题达成协议。随后，德国、法国、英国、意大利、芬兰及北约和欧盟领导 人先后确认，他们将于 18 日前往白宫，同特朗普及泽连斯基举行会晤。从市场所释放的信号来看，尽管 美俄和俄乌依然存在较大分歧，但朝着积极偏乐观的方向发展，未来俄乌冲突的烈度存在降温预期。受此 影响，国际原油期货溢价面临缩水，接下来油市关注点将聚焦于供需结构转向过剩预期，并指引油价走向。 燃料油是石油炼制过程中的产物。据统计，自 2020 年以来，燃料油期货价格与原油期货价格相关性高达 91.5%。在短期原油价格持续回落的拖累下，高硫燃料油期货成本支撑弱化。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 燃料油 维持偏弱走势 宝城期货 陈栋 基于未来油市供应过剩的预期考虑，上周国际能源署和美国能源署纷纷看弱今明两年国际油价。受此 影响，近期国内外原油期货价格呈现震荡回落走势，并拖累高硫燃料油期货 2510 合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration have lowered their forecasts for international oil prices for the next two years due to expectations of oversupply in the oil market, leading to a decline in both domestic and international crude oil futures prices [1][2] Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - The recent meeting between U.S. and Russian leaders in Alaska did not yield any agreements but was deemed constructive, indicating a potential de-escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has contributed to a reduction in international crude oil price premiums [2] - Despite significant differences remaining between the U.S. and Russia regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation, there is a growing optimism that the conflict may cool down, impacting oil market dynamics [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is a notable oversupply in the Asian low-sulfur fuel oil market since late July, while high-sulfur fuel oil prices have dropped to a near three-year low due to ample supply and weak downstream demand [3] - The influx of fuel oil arbitrage cargoes into the Asian market has contributed to a stable spot price differential for fuel oil, although trading activity remains weak with significant discrepancies in pricing between buyers and sellers [3] Group 3: Downstream Market Behavior - The shipping, power generation, and refining sectors are the primary consumers of fuel oil, with shipping fuel consumption being the largest segment. Recent data shows a decrease in wholesale outflow of marine heavy oil, attributed to weak domestic market demand and cautious procurement by downstream enterprises [4] - Overall, the expectation of a cooling Russia-Ukraine conflict, combined with a shrinking premium in the international crude oil market and rising oversupply expectations, suggests that the price focus for crude oil may shift downward, further weakening the cost support for fuel oil [4]

数据方面，7月美国ISM非制造业PMI降至50.1，低于市场预期的51.5；标普全球服务业PMI终值55.7，略高于预期的55.2。近期 公布的美国经济数据整体偏弱势。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，当前美国的经济数据开始走软，或在为美联储降息埋下伏笔，黄金价格后续逐步走 高的可能性较大。 技术面：日线上，近期行情震荡上行，连续多个交易日收小阳线，显示行情比较坚挺。指标上看，行情站上20日均线，后续存 在进一步走高的机会。日内关注上方3400美元一线压力，下方关注3360美元一线支撑。 原油方面： 黄金方面： 美国总统特朗普在周二（8月5日）表示，关于美国联邦储备理事库勒近期宣布请辞一事，特朗普将在不久后宣布短期接替人 选，也将在不久后宣布下任美联储主席人选。特朗普想要美联储降息的意图非常明显，其后续将要任命的官员大概率会站队降 息，市场对降息的预期恐将进一步升温。 技术面：日线上，连续多个交易日行情自高位回落且收阴线，显示短期行情偏弱势。形态上看，行情下行测试前低，倘若跌 破，恐将打开下跌空间，否则短期油价存在反弹的机会。日内关注上方67美元一线压力，下方关注64.50美元一线支撑。 日经225方面 ...