Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price and cumulative percentage change of various commodities, stock market indices, and other important indicators during the Spring Festival holiday in the overseas market [2] Summaries by Related Catalogs Commodities - NYMEX crude oil closed at $66.31 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 5.57% during the holiday [2] - NYMEX natural gas closed at $2.99 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 6.41% during the holiday [2] - COMEX gold closed at $5130.00 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.31% during the holiday [2] - COMEX silver closed at $84.57 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 9.45% during the holiday [2] - LME copper closed at $12964.00 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.25% during the holiday [2] - LME zinc closed at $3382.50 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.20% during the holiday [2] - LME nickel closed at $17435.00 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.59% during the holiday [2] - LME aluminum closed at $3102.50 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.39% during the holiday [2] - LME tin closed at $46559.00 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.62% during the holiday [2] - LME lead closed at $1965.00 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.35% during the holiday [2] - TSI iron ore CFR China (62% iron powder) closed at $95.30 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 1.60% during the holiday [2] - CBOT soybeans closed at $1153.75 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.67% during the holiday [2] - CBOT corn closed at $428.00 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.87% during the holiday [2] - CBOT soybean oil closed at $59.34 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 3.80% during the holiday [2] - CBOT soybean meal closed at $314.20 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.58% during the holiday [2] - CBOT wheat closed at $581.75 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 5.97% during the holiday [2] - CBOT rice closed at $10.52 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 4.54% during the holiday [2] - ICE 11 - sugar closed at $13.86 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.29% during the holiday [2] - ICE 2 - cotton closed at $65.55 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.13% during the holiday [2] Stock Market - The S&P 500 closed at 6909.51 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.07% during the holiday [2] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 22886.07 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.51% during the holiday [2] - The UK FTSE 100 closed at 10686.89 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.30% during the holiday [2] - The French CAC40 closed at 8515.49 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.45% during the holiday [2] - The German DAX closed at 25260.69 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.39% during the holiday [2] - The Nikkei 225 closed at 56825.70 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.20% during the holiday [2] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26413.35 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.58% during the holiday [2] Other Important Indicators - The US dollar index closed at 97.74 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.91% during the holiday [2]

Group 1: Gold Market - The non-farm payroll report released on February 11 indicates strong resilience in the U.S. job market, leading to a decrease in expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in March is 92.2%, with a 7.8% chance of a 25 basis point cut; by April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 25.3% [2] - Technical analysis shows that gold has been in a wide range of fluctuations after a significant drop at the end of last month, with a bearish outlook if it breaks below the support level of $4,980 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's meeting with Trump aims to reach a nuclear agreement with Iran, warning of potential military action if negotiations fail, which poses risks to global oil supply [4] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that global oil demand growth will be lower than previously expected, with a surplus projected to exceed 3.7 million barrels per day [4] - Technical analysis indicates that oil prices fell significantly on February 12, breaking the important support level of $63.70, with a high likelihood of testing the $61.50 level [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have maintained a range of $5.55 to $6.05 after a significant drop at the end of last month, with attention on the potential breakout direction [7] - The immediate resistance level to watch is $5.83 [7] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index shows a bullish trend, accelerating upward on February 6, and is currently maintaining high-level fluctuations [8] - There is a significant possibility of testing the support level at 56,100, and if it breaks, the next target would be 55,300 [8]

原油方面： 隔夜公布美国截至2月6日当周EIA原油库存数据录得增加853万桶，超过市场预期的增加79.3万桶以及前值的减少345.5万桶，利 空油价，投资者需要警惕油价回落风险。 地缘方面，近期美国总统特朗普表示愿意和伊朗达成核协议。美俄乌近期有可能在美国进一步就和平协议进行谈判。虽然地缘 局势难以在近期得到改善，但是整体趋向降温将是大概率事件，原油供给中断的风险有所缓解。 综合来看，原油市场虽然处于供给过剩的状态，但是边际有所改善，叠加美国总统特朗普较为明显地争夺原油价格的定价权， 原油价格短期延续偏强运行将是大概率事件。 黄金方面： 受美国政府部分停摆影响，隔夜公布的美国1月非农就业报告录得增加13万人，大幅超过市场预期的增加7万人以及前值的增加5 万人，刷新了去年4月份以来的最大增幅。同时公布的美国1月份失业率降至4.3%，刷新了去年8月份以来的新低。数据公布之后 美国总统特朗普大赞非农数据，美国劳工部长也表示，就业报告显示美国经济非常强劲。 劳动力市场的强劲将令市场减少对美联储降息的押注，美联储的官员们对于进一步降息表示谨慎态度。美联储施密德表示，进 一步降息可能导致通胀持续。 地缘政治方面，特朗普会 ...

百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，黄金上涨的底层逻辑并未发生改变，市场信心也得到修复，不排除黄金重回牛市的 可能。 技术面：黄金日线收带长下影线的中阳线，对前期阴线形成反包，重心持续上移。4小时周期低点上移，形成上升中继形态的概 率很大，日内可关注下方4943美元一线的支撑。 原油方面： 近期油价有重回疲弱走势的迹象，特别是地缘风险的降温，空头随时可能发力，油价前景并不乐观。 2月6日，美国与伊朗在阿曼首都马斯喀特举行间接谈判。此次会谈为美伊恢复外交和技术层面的谈判创造了适宜条件，虽然暂 未达成任何实质性的协议，但双方均释放出继续谈判的信号。 伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐表示，如果谈判继续保持这种状态，就有可能达成一个双方都认可的框架。中东地缘风险已经降温，中 东原油的生产和外运将不会再受到威胁，前期支撑油价上行的逻辑就不存在了。 黄金方面： 亚盘黄金横盘震荡，走势上依旧强势，中期很可能以5000美元为起点，未来依旧值得期待。 美联储可能并没有市场预期的鹰派，近期又开始市场情绪引导，美国旧金山联储主席戴利最新表示，她认为可能还需要进行一 次或两次降息操作，以应对劳动力市场的疲软状况。因为物价的不断上涨，侵蚀了工资 ...

百利好特约智昇研究黄金高级分析师欧文认为，劳动力市场显示放缓，美联储降息的概率略有上升，对金价有一定的支撑。 黄金方面： 旧金山联储主席戴利表示，尽管物价稳定和充分就业的风险相对平衡，但劳动力市场相对更加脆弱，认为美联储需要降息一到两次，来应对 劳动力市场放缓的状况。 据芝商所"美联储观察"工具，美联储3月维持利率不变的概率为80.1%，降息25个基点的概率为19.9%；到4月累计降息25个基点的概率为 31.1%，维持利率不变的概率为65.2%；到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为51.1%。 技术面：黄金上周在大跌后维持宽幅震荡，周线收长上影线的阳线，进一步上涨的概率增大。小时图来看低点上移，本周有望上冲至5100美 元上方，日内上方关注5080美元的阻力。 黄金小时图 原油方面： 当地时间周五（2月6日）伊朗外长结束了与美国的间接核谈判，表示这是一次良好的开端，对话将继续推进，同时还表示应当承认伊朗拥有 进行铀浓缩的权利。美伊谈判取得进展，缓解了投资者对地缘风险的担忧。 上周公布的美国1月ADP数据显示低于预期，同时初请失业金人数上升以及职位空缺的减少，都显示出劳动力市场在继续放缓，这些数据加剧 了投资者对 ...

黄金方面： 亚盘以黄金为代表的贵金属出现快速下跌，黄金短线跌幅超过4%，白银最大跌幅超过15%，现货黄金的市值在此时段蒸发1.4万 亿美元，现货白银的市值在此时段蒸发8889亿美元。 引爆市场的直接原因就是地缘风险缓和，由于美国和伊朗已达成协议，美伊核谈判峰回路转，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在社交媒体上 发文称，与美国的核问题会谈计划于周五上午10点左右在马斯喀特举行，鉴于伊朗在核问题上的让步和美国对卷入战争的谨慎 态度，双方谈判取得进展的概率很大。 百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，前期贵金属价格的下跌挫伤了多头的信心，地缘风险的缓和可能让多头雪上加霜， 市场需要时间来重塑信心，短期可能继续下行。 技术面：黄金日线收高位流星线，且跌破短期均线支撑。1小时周期高点下移，形成大C浪的概率很大，日内可关注上方4925美 元一线的压力。 原油方面： 受地缘风险缓和的影响，国际油价在亚盘小幅下行，小周期形态上有变坏的迹象，若美伊谈判取得进展，油价有大跌的可能。 截至1月30日当周，美国原油库存和馏分油库存下降，而汽油库存上升，原油库存减少350万桶，至4.203亿桶，因原油产量下滑 至2024年11月以来最低水平。原油产量 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [1] 2. Data Source and Selection - The closing price data are from the previous Friday, and the weekly changes are the changes in the closing prices of the previous Friday compared with those of the Friday before last. Data sources include wind and Guotou Futures [1][2] 3. Market Data 3.1 Commodities - **Positive Growth**: Silver closed at 27941.00 with a weekly increase of 11.92%; crude oil at 470.80 with a 6.54% increase; gold at 1161.42 with a 4.10% increase; palm oil at 9240.00 with a 3.70% increase; PVC at 5063.00 with a 2.89% increase; copper at 103680.00 with a 2.31% increase; aluminum at 24560.00 with a 1.11% increase; methanol at 2320.00 with a 0.96% increase; and soybean meal at 2767.00 with a 0.58% increase [2] - **Negative Growth**: Coking coal at 1155.50 with a - 0.13% change; iron ore at 791.50 with a - 0.44% change; rebar at 3128.00 with a - 0.45% change; glass at 1056.00 with a - 0.75% change; corn at 2271.00 with a - 1.26% change; ethylene glycol at 3913.00 with a - 2.10% change; live pigs at 11220.00 with a - 2.98% change; PTA at 5270.00 with a - 3.27% change; and polysilicon at 47140.00 with a - 7.06% change [2] 3.2 A - shares - **Positive Growth**: The SSE 50 closed at 3066.50 with a 1.13% increase; the CSI 300 at 4706.34 with a 0.08% increase; and the Hang Seng Index at 27387.11 with a 2.38% increase [2] - **Negative Growth**: The CSI 500 closed at 8370.52 with a - 2.56% change [2] 3.3 Overseas Stocks - **Positive Growth**: The FTSE 100 closed at 10223.54 with a 0.79% increase; the S&P 500 at 6939.03 with a 0.34% increase [2] - **Negative Growth**: The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 23461.82 with a - 0.17% change; the French CAC40 at 8126.53 with a - 0.20% change; and the Nikkei 225 at 53322.85 with a - 0.97% change [2] 3.4 Bonds - Chinese 2 - year treasury bonds had a yield of 1.39 with a - 0.86bp change; 10 - year treasury bonds had a yield of 1.82 with a - 1.81bp change; and 5 - year treasury bonds had a yield of 1.58 with a - 2.7bp change [2] 3.5 Foreign Exchange - The euro - US dollar exchange rate closed at 1.19 with a 0.19% increase; the US dollar central parity rate was 6.97 with a - 0.36% change; and the US dollar index was 97.12 with a - 0.40% change [2] 4. Commodity Views 4.1 Macro - financial Sector 4.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [3] - **Bullish Logics**: Abundant liquidity in Q1, central bank's structural interest - rate cuts, upward - revised corporate profit expectations, improving fundamentals, ongoing core drivers of the spring market, and capital flowing into low - valuation sectors [3] - **Bearish Logics**: Sharp decline in precious metals, nomination of Waller for Fed Chair increasing hawkish expectations, decline in January's manufacturing PMI, insufficient economic demand, and profit - taking in the capital market [3] 4.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [3] - **Bullish Logics**: Central bank's large - scale reverse repurchase operations, increased capital flowing back to the bond market due to stock market uncertainties, good primary - market demand for bonds, and geopolitical risks increasing risk - aversion sentiment [3] - **Bearish Logics**: Uncertainties around the Spring Festival, supply pressure of government bonds in 2026, and the need to observe the impact of allocation forces on market demand and pricing [3] 4.2 Energy Sector 4.2.1 Crude Oil - **Strategy Views**: Among 8 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [4] - **Bullish Logics**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East, impact of the US cold wave on production, OPEC+ suspending production increases until the end of Q1, and a weak US dollar trend [4] - **Bearish Logics**: Forecast of oversupply in 2026 by IEA and EIA, non - OPEC countries' continuous production expansion, potential over - production in Venezuela, high geopolitical premium in current prices, and weak terminal demand [4] 4.3 Agricultural Products Sector 4.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend [4] - **Bullish Logics**: Concerns about drought in Argentina, strong short - term Brazilian basis, inventory reduction before the festival, and relatively strong spot prices [4] - **Bearish Logics**: Expected high soybean production in Brazil, high future arrivals, decline in US soybean prices, weak demand from the breeding industry, and a 70% year - on - year increase in domestic commercial inventory [4] 4.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector 4.4.1 Copper - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [5] - **Bullish Logics**: Potential US interest - rate cuts, supply disruptions in global copper mines, weakening copper concentrate processing fees, and long - term growth in copper consumption [5] - **Bearish Logics**: Concerns about Fed's tightening policies after Waller's nomination, weakening sentiment due to precious - metal decline, increasing global visible inventory, and profit - taking before the Spring Festival [5] 4.5 Chemical Sector 4.5.1 Soda Ash - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [5] - **Bullish Logics**: Macro - policies to counter deflation and involution, industry's willingness to stabilize prices, and pre - festival downstream procurement before the cancellation of export tax rebates on photovoltaic glass [5] - **Bearish Logics**: New production capacity increasing supply pressure, low - price and rigid - demand procurement by downstream, high enterprise inventory, and oversupply in the photovoltaic glass industry [5] 4.6 Precious Metals Sector 4.6.1 Gold - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend [6] - **Bullish Logics**: Long - term trend of de - dollarization, repeated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and central banks' long - term gold - buying behavior [6] - **Bearish Logics**: Nomination of hawkish Waller for Fed Chair, increased margin requirements by exchanges, and profit - taking from previous speculative trading [6] 4.7 Black Sector 4.7.1 Coking Coal - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [6] - **Bullish Logics**: Geopolitical tensions increasing energy commodity premiums, downstream winter - storage replenishment, and expected supply contraction due to pre - festival mine closures [6] - **Bearish Logics**: Lack of fundamental support for price increases, low auction transaction rates, high Mongolian coal imports, and low steel - mill iron - water production [6]

另外，美联储的独立性将遭遇特朗普的严重挑战，美元的信用将大打折扣，美元后续贬值仍将是大概率事件。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，当前驱动黄金牛市的因素并没有改变，牛市依旧可期。不过短期边际偏空的影响因 素并没有完全消除，金价短期仍存回调风险。 技术面：日线上，隔夜黄金下行且收阴线，警惕金价再度回落风险。 黄金方面： 近期黄金价格暴跌导火索是特朗普任命沃什为下一任美联储主席，不过这只是表面原因。黄金价格大幅走弱的主要原因在于前 期非理性超涨，获利止盈需求的积累导致较小的边际扰动带来剧烈的回调压力。 从基本面来看，驱动黄金牛市的原因并没有发生改变。不管谁任美联储主席，在美国政府巨大债务面前，美联储不撒钱解决问 题就没有存在的必要，所以美联储宽松在后市依旧会是市场交易的主旋律。 4小时线上看，本轮行情回调有所企稳，短期存在进一步反弹的风险。日内关注上方4992美元一线压力情况。 原油方面： 技术面：日线上，此前行情自高位回落且收阴线，显示短期油价偏弱。从指标上看，行情仍然处于20日均线上方运行，在有效 跌破20日均线之前不宜过分看空。日内关注下方61美元一线支撑情况。 美元指数： 此前美元指数连续下跌之后最 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions of the Federal Reserve, highlighting a pause in interest rate cuts while indicating a slightly hawkish stance, which has led to adjustments in asset prices. The appointment of Kevin Walsh as the new Fed Chair is seen as a catalyst for market adjustments, particularly in precious metals, but the article suggests this is a short-term reaction rather than a fundamental shift in market dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to pause interest rate cuts during its meeting on January 28, 2026, reflecting a more optimistic outlook on the economy, employment, and inflation, which increases uncertainty regarding future rate cuts [2][3]. - The dollar index began to rise, while U.S. stock markets experienced fluctuations, with precious metals initially rising but later facing corrections due to the Fed's hawkish signals [2][3]. Group 2: Kevin Walsh's Appointment - Kevin Walsh's nomination as the next Fed Chair was unexpected in terms of timing and his policy stance, which emphasizes Fed independence and a pragmatic approach to monetary policy, advocating for both rate cuts and balance sheet reduction [2][3]. - The market does not expect Walsh's policy proposals to be implemented in the short term, as there are constraints related to dollar liquidity and employment pressures, despite the Fed's potential for technical balance sheet expansion starting December 2025 [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Walsh's appointment, there was significant volatility in commodity markets, particularly in precious metals, which the article attributes to a rapid prior increase in prices rather than a fundamental change in market conditions [3]. - The article notes that while Walsh's appointment has some catalytic effects on market dynamics, it does not signify a fundamental shift in Fed policy direction, suggesting that precious metal prices may find support after short-term technical adjustments [3]. Group 4: Global Asset Performance - During the week of January 26 to February 1, 2026, global asset prices showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.38% and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.34%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44% [4]. - Commodity prices were also mixed, with Brent crude oil futures rising by 6.65% and the London gold price declining by 2.03% [4].

黄金方面： 美联储1月份议息会议暂缓降息，将利率水平维持在3.5%—3.75%区间。美联储主席鲍威尔重申当前利率处于中性区间，美联储 的货币政策没有预定路线，需要后续用数据说话。特别要注意鲍威尔警告，其继任者最好远离政治。鲍威尔和特朗普的较劲仍 在继续，美元短期存在反弹的风险。 地缘政治方面看，美国总统特朗普警告，对伊朗下一次袭击将会更加严重，称留给伊朗的时间不多了，美以仍然可能对伊朗采 取军事行动。伊朗外长表示，伊朗武装力量高度戒备，将对任何侵略作出回应。地缘摩擦的不确定性，仍将在避险方面为金价 提供支撑。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，当前黄金市场处在多头氛围的市场情绪当中，特朗普继续炒作下一任美联储主席人 选，叠加地缘摩擦升温，黄金延续偏强运行将是大概率事件。 技术面：日线上，行情延续上行表现异常强势，短期行情延续上行的概率比较大。指标上看，20日和62日均线延续上行，多头 趋势明显。短期关注行情回调测试5500美元一线支撑情况。 原油方面： 地缘政治是近期影响油价的关键因素。美国国务卿卢比奥表示，特朗普政府准备动用武力，确保委内瑞拉代总统在最大程度上 和美国合作。另外在美国和伊朗就限制伊朗核计 ...