Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price and cumulative percentage change of various commodities, stock market indices, and other important indicators during the Spring Festival holiday in the overseas market [2] Summaries by Related Catalogs Commodities - NYMEX crude oil closed at $66.31 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 5.57% during the holiday [2] - NYMEX natural gas closed at $2.99 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 6.41% during the holiday [2] - COMEX gold closed at $5130.00 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.31% during the holiday [2] - COMEX silver closed at $84.57 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 9.45% during the holiday [2] - LME copper closed at $12964.00 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.25% during the holiday [2] - LME zinc closed at $3382.50 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.20% during the holiday [2] - LME nickel closed at $17435.00 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.59% during the holiday [2] - LME aluminum closed at $3102.50 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.39% during the holiday [2] - LME tin closed at $46559.00 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.62% during the holiday [2] - LME lead closed at $1965.00 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.35% during the holiday [2] - TSI iron ore CFR China (62% iron powder) closed at $95.30 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 1.60% during the holiday [2] - CBOT soybeans closed at $1153.75 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.67% during the holiday [2] - CBOT corn closed at $428.00 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.87% during the holiday [2] - CBOT soybean oil closed at $59.34 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 3.80% during the holiday [2] - CBOT soybean meal closed at $314.20 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.58% during the holiday [2] - CBOT wheat closed at $581.75 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 5.97% during the holiday [2] - CBOT rice closed at $10.52 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 4.54% during the holiday [2] - ICE 11 - sugar closed at $13.86 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.29% during the holiday [2] - ICE 2 - cotton closed at $65.55 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.13% during the holiday [2] Stock Market - The S&P 500 closed at 6909.51 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.07% during the holiday [2] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 22886.07 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.51% during the holiday [2] - The UK FTSE 100 closed at 10686.89 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.30% during the holiday [2] - The French CAC40 closed at 8515.49 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.45% during the holiday [2] - The German DAX closed at 25260.69 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.39% during the holiday [2] - The Nikkei 225 closed at 56825.70 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.20% during the holiday [2] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26413.35 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.58% during the holiday [2] Other Important Indicators - The US dollar index closed at 97.74 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.91% during the holiday [2]

Group 1: Gold Market - The non-farm payroll report released on February 11 indicates strong resilience in the U.S. job market, leading to a decrease in expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in March is 92.2%, with a 7.8% chance of a 25 basis point cut; by April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 25.3% [2] - Technical analysis shows that gold has been in a wide range of fluctuations after a significant drop at the end of last month, with a bearish outlook if it breaks below the support level of $4,980 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's meeting with Trump aims to reach a nuclear agreement with Iran, warning of potential military action if negotiations fail, which poses risks to global oil supply [4] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that global oil demand growth will be lower than previously expected, with a surplus projected to exceed 3.7 million barrels per day [4] - Technical analysis indicates that oil prices fell significantly on February 12, breaking the important support level of $63.70, with a high likelihood of testing the $61.50 level [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have maintained a range of $5.55 to $6.05 after a significant drop at the end of last month, with attention on the potential breakout direction [7] - The immediate resistance level to watch is $5.83 [7] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index shows a bullish trend, accelerating upward on February 6, and is currently maintaining high-level fluctuations [8] - There is a significant possibility of testing the support level at 56,100, and if it breaks, the next target would be 55,300 [8]

Group 1: Employment and Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for January showed an increase of 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding market expectations of 70,000 and the previous value of 50,000, marking the largest increase since April of the previous year [3] - The unemployment rate in January dropped to 4.3%, the lowest since August of the previous year, indicating a strong labor market [3] - Following the employment data release, U.S. President Trump praised the non-farm data, and the Secretary of Labor stated that the report reflects a very strong U.S. economy [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - The robust labor market is expected to reduce market bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with officials expressing caution regarding further rate reductions [3] - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by March is 5.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 94.1% [6] - By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 20.5%, with a 78.5% chance of no change [6] Group 3: Commodity Markets - Gold and Oil - Analysts suggest that the strength of the U.S. employment market may suppress gold prices, with short-term investors advised to be cautious of potential price corrections [4] - The EIA reported an increase of 8.53 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories, surpassing market expectations of a 793,000 barrel increase, which is bearish for oil prices [5] - Despite the oversupply in the oil market, geopolitical tensions are expected to ease, potentially leading to a stronger short-term performance in oil prices [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis - In the gold market, the recent price action shows a slight increase, with the market operating above the 20-day moving average, indicating a slight bullish trend [4] - The oil market is also showing a strong short-term trend, with prices above the 20-day moving average, suggesting bullish momentum [5] - The Nikkei 225 index has broken out of its previous consolidation range, indicating a likely continuation of a strong performance [8]

Gold - The gold market is currently showing strong performance, with a potential mid-term target of $5000, indicating positive future expectations [2] - Recent comments from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggest that one or two rate cuts may be necessary to address a weakening labor market, which could further support gold prices [2] - The market's confidence in gold has been restored, and there is a possibility of a return to a bull market [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend for gold, with a significant support level at $4943 [2] Oil - Oil prices are showing signs of weakness, particularly due to a decrease in geopolitical risks, which may lead to increased short-selling [3] - Indirect negotiations between the US and Iran have created conditions for potential diplomatic progress, reducing previous upward pressures on oil prices [3] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for oil, with a significant resistance level at $63.60 [3] US Dollar Index - The recent rebound in the US dollar index appears to be interrupted, with expectations of continued rate cuts by the Fed leading to a long-term downtrend [4] - Market concerns focus on potential liquidity tightening and the independence of the Fed, with new Fed Chair Kevin Walsh indicating no immediate plans to reduce the balance sheet [4] - Technical analysis shows a bearish trend for the dollar index, with a resistance level at 97.60 [5] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index is showing signs of a completed upward structure, with a high likelihood of continued declines [6] - A significant resistance level is identified at 57220 [6] Copper - The copper market is facing heavy upward pressure, with signs that the upward structure may have completed [7] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook, with a resistance level at $6.03 [7] Market Overview - The Japanese House of Representatives election results indicate that the ruling coalition has secured a majority [8] - The EU has proposed a 20th round of sanctions against Russia, targeting the energy, financial services, and trade sectors [9] - Upcoming economic data includes the Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index, scheduled for release at 17:30 [10]

Group 1: Gold Market - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Daly, suggests that the Federal Reserve may need to cut interest rates one to two times to address the slowing labor market, despite balanced risks of price stability and full employment [2] - According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, there is an 80.1% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in March, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 19.9%. By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 31.1%, with a 65.2% chance of maintaining rates. By June, the probability of a cumulative cut reaches 51.1% [2] - Analyst Owen from Zhisheng Research indicates that the slowing labor market increases the likelihood of a Fed rate cut, providing some support for gold prices [2] - Technically, gold has maintained a wide range of fluctuations after a significant drop last week, with an increased probability of further upward movement. The price is expected to test resistance at $5,080 and potentially rise above $5,100 this week [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations has alleviated investor concerns regarding geopolitical risks, which may weaken the support for oil prices [4] - Recent U.S. economic data, including lower-than-expected ADP figures and an increase in initial jobless claims, indicates a continuing slowdown in the labor market, raising concerns about global oil demand growth [4] - Technically, oil prices have been in a wide range of fluctuations since reaching $66.45 at the end of last month, currently entering the latter half of an adjustment phase. Key support is noted at $61.50 [5] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have maintained a fluctuating trend after a significant drop at the end of last month, with strong support observed around the $5.55 level despite multiple breaches of the $5.64 support [7] - The upper resistance level for copper is noted at $6.05 [7] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index is in a bullish trend, accelerating upward and reaching a high of 58,569, indicating strong bullish momentum [8] - Key support for the index is observed at the 56,000 level [8]

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold and silver prices experienced a rapid decline, with gold dropping over 4% and silver falling by more than 15%, resulting in a market value loss of $1.4 trillion for gold and $888.9 billion for silver during this period [2] - The immediate cause of the market reaction was the easing of geopolitical risks, as the U.S. and Iran reached an agreement to hold nuclear talks, increasing the likelihood of progress in negotiations [2] - Market sentiment among gold bulls has been negatively impacted by the recent price declines, and further downward movement is anticipated as confidence needs time to rebuild [2] Group 2: Oil Market - International oil prices showed a slight decline due to easing geopolitical risks, with potential for significant drops if U.S.-Iran negotiations progress [3] - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.5 million barrels to 420.3 million barrels, attributed to a decline in production to the lowest level since November 2024, primarily due to production interruptions caused by a winter storm [3] - Distillate inventories fell by 5.6 million barrels to 127.4 million barrels, driven by seasonal heating demand, although this does not indicate a sustained improvement in demand [3] Group 3: U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. dollar index has strengthened over 2.4% from last month's low, driven by expectations that the new Federal Reserve Chairman will adopt a hawkish stance, potentially slowing the pace of interest rate cuts [4] - There is uncertainty regarding the Fed's future stance, with internal divisions suggesting that the path to further rate cuts may be complicated [4] - Current U.S. unemployment rate stands at approximately 4.4%, significantly lower than the 50-year average of 6.2%, indicating potential overinterpretation of the labor market's strength [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The dollar index is showing a bullish candlestick pattern but is close to upper resistance levels, with a potential support level at 97.37 [5] - The Nikkei 225 index has formed a potential upward breakout, with the upward structure possibly completed, indicating a potential for downward volatility [6] - Copper prices are facing heavy resistance, with a potential downward ABC pattern forming, and a key resistance level at $5.89 [7] Group 5: Market Overview - The U.S. and Iran have confirmed an agreement to hold nuclear negotiations in Oman this week, which could impact market dynamics [8] - The U.S. ADP employment figure for January was reported at 22,000, falling short of the market expectation of 48,000 [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [1] 2. Data Source and Selection - The closing price data are from the previous Friday, and the weekly changes are the changes in the closing prices of the previous Friday compared with those of the Friday before last. Data sources include wind and Guotou Futures [1][2] 3. Market Data 3.1 Commodities - **Positive Growth**: Silver closed at 27941.00 with a weekly increase of 11.92%; crude oil at 470.80 with a 6.54% increase; gold at 1161.42 with a 4.10% increase; palm oil at 9240.00 with a 3.70% increase; PVC at 5063.00 with a 2.89% increase; copper at 103680.00 with a 2.31% increase; aluminum at 24560.00 with a 1.11% increase; methanol at 2320.00 with a 0.96% increase; and soybean meal at 2767.00 with a 0.58% increase [2] - **Negative Growth**: Coking coal at 1155.50 with a - 0.13% change; iron ore at 791.50 with a - 0.44% change; rebar at 3128.00 with a - 0.45% change; glass at 1056.00 with a - 0.75% change; corn at 2271.00 with a - 1.26% change; ethylene glycol at 3913.00 with a - 2.10% change; live pigs at 11220.00 with a - 2.98% change; PTA at 5270.00 with a - 3.27% change; and polysilicon at 47140.00 with a - 7.06% change [2] 3.2 A - shares - **Positive Growth**: The SSE 50 closed at 3066.50 with a 1.13% increase; the CSI 300 at 4706.34 with a 0.08% increase; and the Hang Seng Index at 27387.11 with a 2.38% increase [2] - **Negative Growth**: The CSI 500 closed at 8370.52 with a - 2.56% change [2] 3.3 Overseas Stocks - **Positive Growth**: The FTSE 100 closed at 10223.54 with a 0.79% increase; the S&P 500 at 6939.03 with a 0.34% increase [2] - **Negative Growth**: The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 23461.82 with a - 0.17% change; the French CAC40 at 8126.53 with a - 0.20% change; and the Nikkei 225 at 53322.85 with a - 0.97% change [2] 3.4 Bonds - Chinese 2 - year treasury bonds had a yield of 1.39 with a - 0.86bp change; 10 - year treasury bonds had a yield of 1.82 with a - 1.81bp change; and 5 - year treasury bonds had a yield of 1.58 with a - 2.7bp change [2] 3.5 Foreign Exchange - The euro - US dollar exchange rate closed at 1.19 with a 0.19% increase; the US dollar central parity rate was 6.97 with a - 0.36% change; and the US dollar index was 97.12 with a - 0.40% change [2] 4. Commodity Views 4.1 Macro - financial Sector 4.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [3] - **Bullish Logics**: Abundant liquidity in Q1, central bank's structural interest - rate cuts, upward - revised corporate profit expectations, improving fundamentals, ongoing core drivers of the spring market, and capital flowing into low - valuation sectors [3] - **Bearish Logics**: Sharp decline in precious metals, nomination of Waller for Fed Chair increasing hawkish expectations, decline in January's manufacturing PMI, insufficient economic demand, and profit - taking in the capital market [3] 4.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [3] - **Bullish Logics**: Central bank's large - scale reverse repurchase operations, increased capital flowing back to the bond market due to stock market uncertainties, good primary - market demand for bonds, and geopolitical risks increasing risk - aversion sentiment [3] - **Bearish Logics**: Uncertainties around the Spring Festival, supply pressure of government bonds in 2026, and the need to observe the impact of allocation forces on market demand and pricing [3] 4.2 Energy Sector 4.2.1 Crude Oil - **Strategy Views**: Among 8 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [4] - **Bullish Logics**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East, impact of the US cold wave on production, OPEC+ suspending production increases until the end of Q1, and a weak US dollar trend [4] - **Bearish Logics**: Forecast of oversupply in 2026 by IEA and EIA, non - OPEC countries' continuous production expansion, potential over - production in Venezuela, high geopolitical premium in current prices, and weak terminal demand [4] 4.3 Agricultural Products Sector 4.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend [4] - **Bullish Logics**: Concerns about drought in Argentina, strong short - term Brazilian basis, inventory reduction before the festival, and relatively strong spot prices [4] - **Bearish Logics**: Expected high soybean production in Brazil, high future arrivals, decline in US soybean prices, weak demand from the breeding industry, and a 70% year - on - year increase in domestic commercial inventory [4] 4.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector 4.4.1 Copper - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [5] - **Bullish Logics**: Potential US interest - rate cuts, supply disruptions in global copper mines, weakening copper concentrate processing fees, and long - term growth in copper consumption [5] - **Bearish Logics**: Concerns about Fed's tightening policies after Waller's nomination, weakening sentiment due to precious - metal decline, increasing global visible inventory, and profit - taking before the Spring Festival [5] 4.5 Chemical Sector 4.5.1 Soda Ash - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [5] - **Bullish Logics**: Macro - policies to counter deflation and involution, industry's willingness to stabilize prices, and pre - festival downstream procurement before the cancellation of export tax rebates on photovoltaic glass [5] - **Bearish Logics**: New production capacity increasing supply pressure, low - price and rigid - demand procurement by downstream, high enterprise inventory, and oversupply in the photovoltaic glass industry [5] 4.6 Precious Metals Sector 4.6.1 Gold - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend [6] - **Bullish Logics**: Long - term trend of de - dollarization, repeated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and central banks' long - term gold - buying behavior [6] - **Bearish Logics**: Nomination of hawkish Waller for Fed Chair, increased margin requirements by exchanges, and profit - taking from previous speculative trading [6] 4.7 Black Sector 4.7.1 Coking Coal - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [6] - **Bullish Logics**: Geopolitical tensions increasing energy commodity premiums, downstream winter - storage replenishment, and expected supply contraction due to pre - festival mine closures [6] - **Bearish Logics**: Lack of fundamental support for price increases, low auction transaction rates, high Mongolian coal imports, and low steel - mill iron - water production [6]

Gold Market - Recent sharp decline in gold prices triggered by Trump's appointment of Walsh as the next Fed Chair, but this is only a superficial reason. The main cause of the price drop is the previous irrational surge and profit-taking demands leading to significant correction pressure [1] - The fundamental drivers of the gold bull market remain unchanged. Regardless of who leads the Fed, the necessity for monetary easing persists due to the massive U.S. government debt, indicating that easing will continue to dominate market transactions [1] - The independence of the Fed will face serious challenges from Trump, which could significantly undermine the credibility of the dollar, making further dollar depreciation likely [1] - Analyst Chen Yu from Bailihau believes that the factors driving the gold bull market have not changed, and the bull market remains promising, although short-term bearish influences have not been completely eliminated, indicating potential short-term price correction risks [1] Oil Market - U.S. manufacturing has returned to expansion territory for the first time in a year, with the ISM manufacturing index rising to 52.6, the highest level since August 2022, which is expected to improve oil demand [4] - Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran are easing, with Iran's president initiating nuclear negotiations and both sides potentially holding high-level meetings soon, reducing market expectations for military conflict [4] - The consensus is that there is an oversupply in the oil market, which will limit the potential for price increases. However, recent improvements on both supply and demand sides suggest a greater chance for oil prices to fluctuate upwards [4] - Technically, the oil market shows a short-term weakness with recent price declines, but it remains above the 20-day moving average, indicating that excessive bearish sentiment may not be warranted until a significant drop below this average occurs [4] Dollar Index - After a period of decline, the dollar index has rebounded recently, primarily due to the new Fed Chair exceeding market expectations [5] - The dollar index is expected to continue its rebound, supported by improved U.S. manufacturing data, which suggests resilience in the economy, and the lack of increased expectations for Fed rate cuts following Walsh's appointment [5] - According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by March is 8.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 91.1% [5] Technical Analysis - For gold, the daily chart indicates a downward movement with a bearish candle, signaling potential risks for further price declines [2] - The 4-hour chart shows some stabilization in the current correction, with a short-term risk of further rebounds, focusing on the resistance level around $4992 [3] - In the oil market, the daily chart reflects a recent decline and bearish candle, suggesting short-term weakness, while the price remains above the 20-day moving average, indicating caution against excessive bearish outlooks [4] - The dollar index's daily chart shows a rebound after a doji candlestick, with potential for continued upward movement, while attention should be paid to the resistance level around $98 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions of the Federal Reserve, highlighting a pause in interest rate cuts while indicating a slightly hawkish stance, which has led to adjustments in asset prices. The appointment of Kevin Walsh as the new Fed Chair is seen as a catalyst for market adjustments, particularly in precious metals, but the article suggests this is a short-term reaction rather than a fundamental shift in market dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to pause interest rate cuts during its meeting on January 28, 2026, reflecting a more optimistic outlook on the economy, employment, and inflation, which increases uncertainty regarding future rate cuts [2][3]. - The dollar index began to rise, while U.S. stock markets experienced fluctuations, with precious metals initially rising but later facing corrections due to the Fed's hawkish signals [2][3]. Group 2: Kevin Walsh's Appointment - Kevin Walsh's nomination as the next Fed Chair was unexpected in terms of timing and his policy stance, which emphasizes Fed independence and a pragmatic approach to monetary policy, advocating for both rate cuts and balance sheet reduction [2][3]. - The market does not expect Walsh's policy proposals to be implemented in the short term, as there are constraints related to dollar liquidity and employment pressures, despite the Fed's potential for technical balance sheet expansion starting December 2025 [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Walsh's appointment, there was significant volatility in commodity markets, particularly in precious metals, which the article attributes to a rapid prior increase in prices rather than a fundamental change in market conditions [3]. - The article notes that while Walsh's appointment has some catalytic effects on market dynamics, it does not signify a fundamental shift in Fed policy direction, suggesting that precious metal prices may find support after short-term technical adjustments [3]. Group 4: Global Asset Performance - During the week of January 26 to February 1, 2026, global asset prices showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.38% and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.34%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44% [4]. - Commodity prices were also mixed, with Brent crude oil futures rising by 6.65% and the London gold price declining by 2.03% [4].

Gold Market - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% during the January meeting, with Chairman Powell emphasizing that the monetary policy does not have a predetermined path and will rely on data moving forward [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, are expected to support gold prices as President Trump warned of severe consequences for Iran's actions, while Iran's foreign minister stated that their armed forces are on high alert [2] - Analyst Chen Yu from Baillieau believes the current gold market sentiment is bullish, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and discussions about the next Federal Reserve chair [2] - Technically, the gold market shows strong upward momentum, with the 20-day and 62-day moving averages indicating a clear bullish trend, and a short-term focus on the support level around $5,500 [2] Oil Market - Geopolitical factors are critical in influencing oil prices, with Secretary of State Rubio indicating that the Trump administration is prepared to use military force to ensure cooperation from Venezuela's interim president [3] - Following unsuccessful discussions with Iran regarding its nuclear program, President Trump is considering significant military action against Iran, which could lead to volatility in oil prices [3] - Despite long-term oversupply pressures in the oil market, recent cold weather in North America has caused a sharp decline in U.S. production, while demand growth remains weak [3] - Technically, the oil market is currently in a strong upward trend, with the 20-day and 62-day moving averages forming a golden cross, suggesting potential for further price increases, with a focus on the support level around $63.73 [3] Dollar Index - The dollar index has shown weakness recently, influenced by President Trump's actions regarding Greenland and ongoing sales of U.S. debt by Europe, leading to a significant depreciation of the dollar [4] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain current interest rates and lack of a clear policy path has contributed to the dollar's decline, although Powell's comments on the next Fed chair's independence may help limit further depreciation [4] - Technically, the dollar index is currently under pressure, with recent trading showing a potential for a rebound, while short-term bearish sentiment remains dominant [4] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index is currently experiencing a period of high-level consolidation, with previous corrections finding support at the 62-day moving average [5] - The index remains above the 62-day moving average, indicating potential for further upward movement, with a short-term focus on the support level around 53,104 [5] Copper Market - The copper market is showing strong performance, with prices expected to break out of recent consolidation patterns [6] - The market is currently above the 62-day moving average, indicating a bullish overall trend, with a short-term focus on the support level around $6.10 [6] Market Overview - Reports indicate that President Trump and Senate Minority Leader Schumer are moving towards a potential agreement to avoid a government shutdown [7] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that the independence of the Federal Reserve does not imply a lack of accountability, with a new Fed chair candidate expected to be announced soon [7] - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand is expected to reach a new high by 2025, with central banks purchasing a net 230 tons of gold in Q4 [7] Upcoming Data/Events - Initial jobless claims for the week ending January 24 will be released at 21:30 [8] - U.S. factory orders for November will be reported at 23:00 [8]