来源：中信信托 本周摘要 Weekly Summary 上周，A股上周重拾涨势。成交额、换手率、融资余额等反映市场情绪的指标指向当前风险偏好上升并处于较高位置。在此背景下，成长 风格整体跑赢稳定风格。由于归属科技成长范畴的电子行业和房地产、农林牧渔等传统周期行业录得上周涨幅前三，或反映当前市场主 线仍在寻求不同板块间的平衡以及在前期涨幅相对较小的行业中寻求机会。预计A股短期波动提升的同时上涨空间将打开。美国方面仍是 交易美联储降息节奏的加快。美元持续下行、美国国债收益率回落，以及美股和黄金的上涨，或反映市场对于美联储将实施货币宽松行 为的定价。报告维持前期观点，关注美国经济"类滞胀"风险及后续降息空间或仍将受限。 MACROECONOMICS 国内外宏观经济 国内方面 国内风险偏好升温，A股重拾涨势，但短期波动料将加大。我国上周先后发布8月贸易、通胀、社融信贷等重要月度经济数据。3季度以 来，我国经济数据表现冷热不均，除了出口项连续数月超预期，生产、需求以及通胀数据难言强劲。本次贸易、通胀和社融信贷数据的 主要特征是出口增速回落，CPI通胀同比增速重回负增；另一方面，PPI通胀降幅收窄，主要源于前期"反内卷" ...

Market Performance - The US stock indices collectively rose over 3% last week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 3.82% to 43819.27 points, the Nasdaq Composite rising by 4.25% to 20273.46 points, and the S&P 500 gaining 3.44% to 6173.07 points [1] - The rise in the stock market is attributed to improved risk appetite following the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement and a decline in commodity prices, which stabilized US inflation expectations [1] Future Market Outlook - Despite the recent gains, the US stock market may face pressure due to policy uncertainties from the US government and concerns over stagflation in the US economy [2] - The S&P 500 index has seen a year-to-date increase of approximately 5% as of 2025, with July historically being a strong month for the stock market, averaging a 2.9% increase [1][2] Earnings Season - The upcoming earnings season is expected to reveal how tariffs may impact corporate profits and consumer spending, with S&P 500 companies projected to see a 5.9% year-over-year increase in earnings for Q2 [2] - Analysts suggest that the focus will shift back to fundamentals as the earnings season approaches [2] Employment Data - The US non-farm payroll report, set to be released soon, is anticipated to provide critical insights into the US economy, influencing investor sentiment regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Recent unemployment claims data indicates a rise to the highest level in three and a half years, reflecting a potential softening in the labor market [3] Economic Indicators - A series of economic indicators are scheduled for release, including the Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed Business Activity Index, and various manufacturing PMIs from the US and China [4]