霸权黄昏的启示：特朗普的关税政策与美国的衰落 挥舞大棒换不来真心臣服，算计盟友终将众叛亲离。世界早不是谁家独大的牌桌，真正的赢家从不在废墟上称王，而在共生的土壤里扎根生长。别把伙伴逼 成对手，别把信任当作筹码，别让短视的狂欢，埋葬一个时代的荣光。 这句结语，是对本文核心论点的精辟总结。 特朗普的关税政策，如同阿根廷庇隆时代"特立独行"的经济政策翻版，看似短期内取得些许利益，实则埋下了美国霸权衰落的种子。其高筑贸易壁垒的行 为，最终导致盟友离心离德，对手强势抱团，美国自身则陷入前所未有的贸易困境。 第四章：短视的胜利，长远的溃败——霸权根基的崩塌 特朗普政府看似在关税政策上获得了短期收益，夕阳产业也获得了一丝喘息的机会，但付出的代价却是巨大的。盟友的信任彻底崩盘：欧盟和日本等国对其 离心离德，北约内部也暗流涌动。 曾经坚定的盟友们，纷纷感受到来自美国反复无常的算计，他们的信任与忠诚度也随之瓦解。 这种背信弃义的行为，最 终将美国推向孤立无援的境地。 欧盟与美国的关系迅速恶化，双方"握手言和"的承诺很快被打破，欧盟高官公开表达不满。 日本则谴责美国背信弃义，并对美国朝令夕改的政策感到寒 心。 盟友们对美国政府的反 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent imposition of a 50% tariff by the U.S. on Brazil is seen as politically motivated and contrary to the current global order, prompting Brazil to focus on diplomatic negotiations and potential reciprocal measures rather than outright retaliation [1][29][30]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Impact on Brazil - The U.S. tariff is partly motivated by the prosecution of former President Bolsonaro, which Brazil views as an interference in its domestic affairs [1][30]. - Brazil is preparing to implement equivalent tariffs on U.S. products as a form of reciprocal measure [4][31]. - The Brazilian government emphasizes the importance of maintaining a rational approach to foreign policy while expressing dissatisfaction with U.S. actions [6][34]. Group 2: Brazil's Diplomatic Strategy - Brazil aims to diversify its partnerships, with China playing a significant role in this strategy [4][31]. - The country plans to take the tariff issue to multilateral institutions like the WTO to seek a resolution [4][31]. - Brazil's leadership under President Lula is characterized by a commitment to dialogue and peaceful conflict resolution, positioning the country as a mediator in international disputes [16][47]. Group 3: BRICS and Global Influence - The U.S. tariffs are perceived as a sign of the growing influence of BRICS nations, which Brazil views positively as a validation of their efforts to create an alternative global order [36][37]. - Brazil believes that the tariffs will not undermine BRICS solidarity but rather strengthen political and commercial ties among member countries [36][37]. - The recent BRICS summit resulted in several declarations on key global issues, reflecting the group's commitment to addressing contemporary challenges [40][41]. Group 4: China-Brazil Relations - The potential construction of a railway linking Peru's Chancay port to Brazil's east coast is seen as a significant opportunity to enhance bilateral relations, although it is still in the feasibility study phase [43][44]. - Brazil's trade with China is substantial, but there is a need to improve the quality of trade, particularly in high-tech products [43][44]. - The Brazilian government supports closer cooperation with China, especially in infrastructure projects that could benefit both economies [45][46]. Group 5: Brazil's Role in Global Peace Efforts - Brazil is positioning itself as a mediator in global conflicts, leveraging its tradition of peaceful conflict resolution and diplomatic engagement [16][47]. - The country is actively working with China on peace initiatives related to the Ukraine conflict, although significant progress has yet to be made [50]. - Brazil condemns the violence in Palestine and seeks to address the humanitarian crisis, emphasizing its role as a responsible global actor [51][52].

编 辑丨和佳 当地时间4月2 9日，美国总统特朗普第二任期迎来了"百日执政"纪念日。从内政到外交，从经 济到民生，特朗普政府上任以来出台的多项政策遭到广泛批评。有分析认为，特朗普政府的政 策不仅未能带来预期中的稳定增长或国际声誉提升，反而为共和党中期选举前景蒙上阴影，也 使美国在全球治理中的领导地位面临更大不确定性。 据新华社报道，美国媒体4月2 7日发布的一项联合民调结果显示， 仅有3 9%的受访者认可特 朗普的执政表现，其执政支持率创下过去8 0年来美国历任总统同期最低纪录。 复旦大学国际问题研究院院长、复旦大学美国研究中心主任吴心伯4月3 0日在接受2 1世纪经济 报道记者专访时表示，不及格的百日支持率反映了公众对特朗普执政表现的普遍不认可，也预 示着其第二任期开局不利。他认为，虽然民调本身并非政策成败的直接因素，但将在政治层面 产生连锁反应，鼓舞反对派——尤其是民主党加大对其的狙击，从而阻碍其后续政治议程的推 进。 在国内经济层面，吴心伯指出，特朗普政府"破多立少"的改革虽力度空前，却难见成效，反而 引发了一系列经济与社会问题。其中，所谓的"对等关税"对美国经济的冲击成为民众和企业最 直接的不满来源， ...

Group 1 - Mahathir criticizes the high tariff policy of the Trump administration, predicting it will not last more than three months due to rising living costs leading to widespread protests among the American populace [1][4] - The U.S. economy's deep reliance on global supply chains is highlighted, with Mahathir noting that the country has "almost no domestic products," leading to a hollowing out of local manufacturing [3][4] - The imposition of high tariffs could result in significant price increases for American consumers, particularly for products like the iPhone, which relies heavily on overseas production [3][4] Group 2 - The anticipated nationwide protests in the U.S. in April 2025 are linked to rising prices, stock market declines, and shrinking retirement funds, reflecting the real impact of the trade war on American citizens [4][6] - Mahathir argues that the Trump administration's tariffs may backfire, creating three major challenges: overcoming cost disadvantages, increasing inflation, and the risk of global supply chain disruptions [4][6] - The U.S. stock market has already seen a significant decline, with a loss of $6.6 trillion in market value due to the tariff policies, indicating the immediate economic repercussions [4][6] Group 3 - Despite widespread protests, Trump maintains a high approval rating among Republican voters, and there is no unified opposition within the party against the tariff policies [6][7] - The slow response of the government to the negative economic impacts of tariffs is noted, with decision-making processes being influenced by public opinion and lobbying from interest groups [6][7] - Mahathir's critique reflects a broader concern about the decline of American hegemony and the potential ineffectiveness of unilateral pressure on China in trade negotiations [6][7] Group 4 - The conflict between globalization and protectionism is underscored, with Mahathir's predictions highlighting the structural contradictions within the U.S. economy [9] - The Trump administration faces a "triple paradox" involving insufficient domestic production, rising inflation pressures, and the political divide between populist movements and elite consensus [9] - The challenge for the Trump administration lies not only in the potential repeal of tariffs but in finding a way to exit the economic conflict without triggering a systemic crisis [9]