Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024, in response to lower-than-expected job growth and economic uncertainty [3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates is influenced by rising inflation and a slowdown in job growth, with recent indicators showing a deceleration in economic activity [3]. - The Fed's forecast indicates an additional 50 basis points cut by the end of the year, with further cuts of 25 basis points each year for the next two years [5]. - The Federal Reserve will continue to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities while maintaining the current pace of balance sheet reduction [5]. Group 2: Economic Projections - The Federal Reserve projects a GDP growth rate of 1.6% for 2025, an increase from the previous forecast of 1.4%, with a long-term growth rate expectation of 1.8% [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision, the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.13% to 96.48 [7].

高盛研究部上周末 将2025年美国GDP增速预测从年初的2.4%下调至目前的1.7%（均为四季度同比口径） 。这是高盛两年半以来 首次作出低于市场普遍预 期的美国GDP预测 。下调预测的 主要原因并不是近期的数据表现 ，因为二月份就业报告表现尚可、首次申领失业救济人数仍然较低、二月份ISM指数以及 高盛研究部更广泛的企业调查追踪指标仍接近近期均值，而且一季度GDP追踪指标大幅走弱被市场过度解读。另外， 高盛研究部认为美国经济仍受到多重利 好因素影响 ，比如增长强劲的生产率，以及实际家庭收入的增长稳健。最后，美国总统特朗普议程中的重要内容——减税和放松监管——应对经济增长构成 支撑。 实际上， 下调预测是因为高盛研究部的贸易政策假设已显著趋向于对增长不利，而且美国政府正在引导市场预期转向关税可能引发的短期经济疲软 。高盛目 前预计今年美国平均关税税率将上升10个百分点，这是此前预测的两倍，也是特朗普首届任期时增幅的五倍左右。尽管特朗普对加拿大和墨西哥加征25%关 税的举措在实施后很快减码， 高盛研究部预计未来几个月美国将出台关键商品关税、全球汽车关税和"对等"关税 。其中， 对等关税意义最为重大 ，并不是 因为 ...