对很多依赖联邦支持的行业来说，损失同样触目惊心。比如靠交通业吃饭的旅游业，可真是惨了。 始于10月1日的美国联邦政府"停摆"，眼下尚无结束迹象。 民主、共和两党仍然没有妥协的苗头，参议院围绕相关议案的投票陷入僵局，众议院甚至直接"摆烂"，一直处于休会状态。 两党如同斗鸡般的气势之争打得火热，但两百多万联邦政府雇员乃至整个美国经济，可真是要扛不住了。 预测：美国每周或蒸发150亿美元 据美媒《政客》杂志报道，安永一项预测显示，政府"停摆"可能导致每周国内生产总值增长减少70亿美元，相当于第四季度经济增长率下降0.1个百分 点。 但美国政府自己的数据显示，安永的预测还是保守了。 白宫经济顾问委员会一份备忘录显示，经济受到的打击可能远超预期，估计"停摆"每持续一周，就可能导致美国GDP损失150亿美元。 美国旅游协会总裁兼首席执行官杰夫•弗里曼在新闻稿中表示，政府关门"正在造成真正的、不可逆转的损害"，旅客将面临更长的排队和航班延误，机场 将减少航班，一些控制塔也将陷入瘫痪。政府关门的第一周内，美国旅游经济损失了10亿美元。 失业压力加大，美军要"欠饷"了 据《华盛顿邮报》报道，若政府"停摆"持续一个月，将额外导致 ...

Core Points - The U.S. federal government has shut down for the first time in nearly seven years, affecting approximately 750,000 federal employees who may be forced into unpaid leave [2][4] - The shutdown is expected to delay the release of significant economic data, including the September non-farm payroll report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), complicating decision-making for the Federal Reserve [2][16][18] - The economic impact of the shutdown is projected to be severe, with estimates suggesting a loss of $7 billion in GDP for each week the government remains closed [2][21] Economic Impact - Approximately 750,000 federal employees will face unpaid leave, with a daily payroll cost of about $400 million during the shutdown [4][10] - Essential services such as border protection and air traffic control will continue to operate, but non-essential services funded by Congress may face closures [4][10] - The shutdown could lead to a decline in consumer and investor confidence, further exacerbating economic challenges [21] Political Context - The shutdown reflects ongoing political battles between the two major parties, primarily centered around healthcare funding and budget allocations [11][14] - The core disagreement involves the restoration of nearly $1 trillion in Medicaid funding and the extension of tax credits under the Affordable Care Act [14][15] - Historical context shows that government shutdowns have become a recurring political strategy, with the last significant shutdown lasting 35 days due to disputes over immigration and border funding [11][14] Market Reactions - Historical data indicates that U.S. stock markets may experience short-term pressure during shutdowns, but typically recover in the months following the reopening [23][24] - Gold prices tend to rise during prolonged shutdowns, with significant gains observed in past instances [30] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds generally increases during shutdowns due to heightened investor concerns over fiscal stability [28]