从技术面来看，美元指数近期在接近100关口后承压回落，日线图呈现高位震荡下行趋势。短期均线排 列偏弱，MACD动能柱在零轴附近持续走弱，RSI指标从中性区逐步回落至约48，均表明上行动能不 足。技术阻力集中在100关口附近，下方支撑位则位于98.80和98.50区域，若指数无法站稳100上方，短 线仍可能回测支撑区间，整体技术面偏向弱势整理格局。 若后续美国ADP就业数据、ISM服务业指数等关键指标确认经济动能减弱，将进一步强化市场对12月降 息的押注，使美元面临持续承压风险。当前多重宏观因素交织，政策不确定性叠加经济基本面的隐忧， 已明显限制了美元指数的反弹空间，需警惕各类因素共振引发的短线波动。 美元指数在最新交易日下滑至99.20附近，亚洲盘初延续承压态势，交投于该水平附近，单日跌幅约 0.1%，凸显市场对美国货币政策前景重新定价的紧迫情绪。此次走弱的核心动因，是市场对美联储主 席继任问题的高度聚焦，叠加潜在经济数据疲软的预期，共同压制了美元的上行空间。 随着现任美联储主席鲍威尔任期将于明年5月届满，白宫对下一任主席的提名进程引发广泛关注。美国 财政部长贝森特已明确表示，特朗普"很有可能"在12月25日 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the succession of the Federal Reserve Chair, with former St. Louis Fed President Bullard indicating his willingness to advance the process in discussions with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [1] - President Trump is critical of current Fed Chair Powell and seeks a successor who aligns with his policy views, particularly in favor of interest rate cuts to stimulate economic growth [3] - A candidate list is being compiled by Mnuchin, featuring financial elites including Bullard, NEC Director Hassett, former Fed Governor Warsh, current Fed Governor Waller, and former Bush economic advisor Summers, each with unique policy perspectives [3] Group 2 - Bullard supports lowering interest rates, arguing that tariffs do not directly cause inflation but may slow economic growth, suggesting that the Fed may adjust its monetary policy accordingly [4] - He emphasizes flexibility in monetary policy, advocating for different approaches based on economic conditions, such as raising rates during inflationary periods and potentially lowering them in times of economic downturn [5] - The future direction of the Fed's monetary policy and the selection of the new chair will remain a focal point for global financial markets [5]