Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the unexpected strength of the U.S. non-farm payroll data in September reinforces the Federal Reserve's inclination to delay interest rate cuts, raising questions about how the Fed can make accurate decisions in the absence of data [1] - There are indications that the market is beginning to view gold as a hedge against potential "policy mistakes" by the Federal Reserve, despite a high interest rate environment that typically would be bearish for gold [1] - If the Federal Reserve decides to maintain its current stance in December but later data suggests that not cutting rates was a mistake, it could undermine market confidence in the dollar, making gold a more reliable "safe haven" [1]

Core Viewpoint - As of the end of July, China's foreign exchange reserves decreased to $32,922 billion, a decline of $2.52 billion or 0.76% from the end of June, primarily due to the appreciation of the US dollar and fluctuations in asset prices [1][2] Foreign Exchange Reserves - The decline in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the rise in the US dollar index, which reached 100 points in July, influenced by expectations of high inflation and strong economic data, leading to a depreciation of non-USD currencies such as the Japanese yen, euro, and British pound by 4.5%, 3.2%, and 3.8% respectively [1][2] - The valuation of foreign exchange reserves in USD means that the depreciation of non-USD assets contributed significantly to the decrease in reserves [1] Asset Price Changes - The postponement of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve led to a slight decline of 0.1% in the USD-hedged global bond index, negatively impacting foreign exchange reserves, while US stock indices reached new highs, providing some support [2] Future Outlook - The National Foreign Exchange Administration expects that China's foreign exchange reserves will remain stable due to the strong economic fundamentals and resilience of the Chinese economy [3] - The current level of foreign exchange reserves is considered adequate, providing support for maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium and acting as a buffer against potential external shocks [3] Gold Reserves - China continues to increase its gold reserves, which reached 73.96 million ounces by the end of July, marking a month-on-month increase of 6,000 ounces, representing the ninth consecutive month of gold accumulation [1][4] - The value of China's gold reserves is approximately $244 billion, accounting for 7.41% of the total foreign exchange reserves, which is the highest proportion in three months [4] - The People's Bank of China is maintaining a steady pace of gold accumulation to optimize reserve structure and manage liquidity while mitigating geopolitical risks and market volatility [4][5]