【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 格隆汇11月21日｜MarketPulse分析师Christian Norman表示，美国九月非农就业数据超预期，强化美联 储推迟降息倾向。但市场现在存在一个核心疑问：在缺乏数据的情况下，美联储如何能保证做出正确决 策？因此，尽管高利率环境本应利空黄金，有迹象表明，市场正开始将黄金视为对冲"政策失误"的工 具。万一美联储12月决定按兵不动，但后续数据公布后，却被证明不降息是一个错误决定，就很可能动 摇市场对美元的信心。相比之下，黄金反而成了更可靠的"避风港"。这目前虽然只是一个次要逻辑，但 确实可能为金价提供一些支撑，因为这反映了市场对美联储（在信息不全的情况下）能否精准把控经济 的信心正在下降。 ...

Core Viewpoint - As of the end of July, China's foreign exchange reserves decreased to $32,922 billion, a decline of $2.52 billion or 0.76% from the end of June, primarily due to the appreciation of the US dollar and fluctuations in asset prices [1][2] Foreign Exchange Reserves - The decline in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the rise in the US dollar index, which reached 100 points in July, influenced by expectations of high inflation and strong economic data, leading to a depreciation of non-USD currencies such as the Japanese yen, euro, and British pound by 4.5%, 3.2%, and 3.8% respectively [1][2] - The valuation of foreign exchange reserves in USD means that the depreciation of non-USD assets contributed significantly to the decrease in reserves [1] Asset Price Changes - The postponement of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve led to a slight decline of 0.1% in the USD-hedged global bond index, negatively impacting foreign exchange reserves, while US stock indices reached new highs, providing some support [2] Future Outlook - The National Foreign Exchange Administration expects that China's foreign exchange reserves will remain stable due to the strong economic fundamentals and resilience of the Chinese economy [3] - The current level of foreign exchange reserves is considered adequate, providing support for maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium and acting as a buffer against potential external shocks [3] Gold Reserves - China continues to increase its gold reserves, which reached 73.96 million ounces by the end of July, marking a month-on-month increase of 6,000 ounces, representing the ninth consecutive month of gold accumulation [1][4] - The value of China's gold reserves is approximately $244 billion, accounting for 7.41% of the total foreign exchange reserves, which is the highest proportion in three months [4] - The People's Bank of China is maintaining a steady pace of gold accumulation to optimize reserve structure and manage liquidity while mitigating geopolitical risks and market volatility [4][5]