【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 格隆汇11月21日｜MarketPulse分析师Christian Norman表示，美国九月非农就业数据超预期，强化美联 储推迟降息倾向。但市场现在存在一个核心疑问：在缺乏数据的情况下，美联储如何能保证做出正确决 策？因此，尽管高利率环境本应利空黄金，有迹象表明，市场正开始将黄金视为对冲"政策失误"的工 具。万一美联储12月决定按兵不动，但后续数据公布后，却被证明不降息是一个错误决定，就很可能动 摇市场对美元的信心。相比之下，黄金反而成了更可靠的"避风港"。这目前虽然只是一个次要逻辑，但 确实可能为金价提供一些支撑，因为这反映了市场对美联储（在信息不全的情况下）能否精准把控经济 的信心正在下降。 ...

Market Volatility and Economic Indicators - Various volatility indicators across stock, bond, and currency markets have dropped to their lowest levels of the year, with the VIX index reaching a new low since December of last year [1] - Despite a macro environment filled with risks such as geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation, the market is betting on limited price fluctuations [1][3] - Jefferies International's chief economist attributes this calm to a significant amount of sidelined capital ready to buy on dips, which suppresses selling behavior [1] Investor Behavior and Market Sentiment - Investors are increasingly participating in the market despite acknowledging existing risks, driven by a fear of missing out on potential gains [3] - The market experienced brief turbulence due to disappointing employment data and tariff policies, but the VIX index quickly rebounded [3] - The S&P 500 index has reached new highs, supported by mild inflation data that reinforces expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Economic Outlook and Risks - There are warnings from institutions regarding blind optimism in the market, with historical precedents indicating that low volatility can precede significant spikes [3][4] - Fidelity International's global head of macro and strategic asset allocation warns of a potential economic downturn, estimating a 20% probability of a cyclical recession due to the impact of tariff escalations [4] - The increasing debt burden and spending levels of the U.S. government may compel the Federal Reserve to adopt unconventional measures, which could distort bond prices and lead to market volatility [4][5]