【#央行连续15个月增持黄金##金价史诗级波动为何央行持续增持#？】2月7日，央行公布数据显示，1 月末黄金储备为7419万盎司，较上月末增加4万盎司。这是自2024年11月重启增持后，央行连续第15个 月增加黄金储备。同日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至1月末，我国外汇储备规模为33991亿美 元，较2025年12月末上升412亿美元，升幅为1.23%。我国外汇储备规模已经连续6个月稳定在3.3万亿美 元以上，并呈现出稳中有升的态势。全文： ...

全球局势越不稳定，黄金就越吃香。投资者宁愿少赚，也要把钱放在最稳的地方。 很多人可能没想到，2026年的第一个"爆点"，竟然是黄金。 1月28日，国际金价一举冲破5200美元/盎司，国内金饰价格也被"顺势抬上神坛"，第一次站上1600元/克的大关。金店里标签一天改三次价、消费者一边喊贵 一边又怕踏空，这种"又想买又不敢买"的矛盾情绪，几乎成了这波行情的真实写照。 如果把近十年的黄金走势图摊开，你会发现这次的上涨完全不是"小打小闹"，而是历史级别的加速冲刺。背后有三股力量在推： 1.央行疯狂增持。 过去几年，各国央行都在悄悄加仓黄金，把它当成"终极底牌"。当官方力量持续买入，金价自然水涨船高。 2.地缘冲突不断。 2.珠宝店长： "金价涨得太快，消费者心态都乱了。有人冲进来就买，怕再涨；也有人站在柜台前看半天，最后摇头走人。我们现在最怕的不是没人来，而是涨价太快导 致滞销。" 一句话总结：金价越涨，消费者越纠结。 3.美元持续走弱。 美元一旦疲软，黄金就像被松开刹车一样往上冲。对全球资金来说，黄金成了更可靠的价值锚。 这三股力量叠加，造就了金价"脱离供需逻辑"的狂飙。 金店现场：火爆与冷清并存 为了更真实，我特 ...

日内可留意美国11月耐用品订单月率及美国1月达拉斯联储商业活动指数等数据，市场预期偏向利空金 价，但预计压力有限，受周末局势风险推动，包括特朗普称美国将取得格陵兰岛美军基地所在区域"主 权"、美航母打击群已抵达印度洋； 伊朗官员称伊武装力量已进入全面戒备状态、美参议院民主党誓言 阻挠国土安全部拨款，政府停摆风险再起等等，将会在短期内持续对金价产生利好，故此，周内金价将 继续保持看涨上行，下方将关注布林带上轨支撑和5日均线支撑位再度的入场点。 基本面上，根据张尧浠言论：就今年1月目前，金价涨超16%以上，先是特朗普批准对委内瑞拉采取军 事行动以推翻马杜罗政权，引发拉美地缘政治危机升级；之后通过司法部对美联储主席鲍威尔展开调 查，以政治压力逼迫美联储加速降息，增强了市场对于美联储政策独立性的担忧；并在此之后又更以购 买格陵兰岛为由，威胁对欧盟加征额外关税，再度点燃跨大西洋贸易摩擦的导火索。助力金价强势攀 升。 展望后市，短期内这些因素都难以逆转，另外，年内仍处于美联储降息周期之中，持续下行的利率水平 将会大幅削弱了政府债券、货币市场基金等低风险资产的吸引力，而间接利好黄金需求。 影响上，周初受美国总统特朗普在格陵 ...

具体走势上，金价自周初高开于4615.41美元/盎司，并先行录得当周低点4615.08美元，之后连续反弹走强拉升，于周二突破趋势线阻力打开进一步上行空 间，中途虽有短暂回落调整，但最终多头仍占据主导，延续至周五时段触及4989.34美元历史高点，并持稳收于4982.08美元，相对于前周收盘价4594.07美 元，周振幅395.27美元，收涨388.01美元，涨幅8.45%。 影响上，周初受美国总统特朗普在格陵兰岛争端中对多个欧洲国家发出加征关税警告所激发的避险需求推动和持续推动，提振金价高开高走，于周二突破 关键阻力； 虽周三周四因特朗普淡化对格陵兰岛和伊朗的威胁，以及撤回关税威胁，几度打压金价回撤，但最终由于特朗普又警告称，若欧洲抛售美国资产，将采 取"重大报复"等等，再度增强了市场避险需求，以及加大了市场的不确定性，并市场对美联储将在今年下半年进行两次降息的预期共同推动；令金价重获 吸引力，并继续走强持稳收涨。 展望本周周一(1月26日)：国际黄金高开至5005.58美元/盎司后继续走强，如期验证去年就说道的2026年金价将最少触及5000美元的观点。其美元指数低开 走弱，IMF表示美元全球外汇储备占比跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices and the increasing gold reserves in China, highlighting the impact of geopolitical risks and monetary policy on the gold market [1]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On January 8, COMEX gold futures experienced a sharp decline followed by a rebound, currently trading around $4,458 [1]. - As of 10:00 AM, the performance of gold-related ETFs showed mixed results, with the Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) up 0.26% and the Gold Stock ETF (159562) up 0.39%, while the Nonferrous Metals ETF (516650) turned down by 0.34% [1]. Group 2: China's Gold Reserves - According to data from China's foreign exchange bureau, the country's gold reserves reached 74.15 million ounces by the end of December 2025, an increase of 30,000 ounces, marking the 14th consecutive month of growth [1]. Group 3: Market Analysis - Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, noted that with the Federal Reserve continuing to lower interest rates and global geopolitical risks remaining high, international gold prices are likely to maintain an upward trend [1]. - The recent increase in central bank gold purchases is attributed to changes in the global political and economic landscape following the new U.S. administration, suggesting that the necessity to pause gold accumulation for cost control is decreasing while the need to optimize international reserve structures is increasing [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report's Core View - On January 7, equity index futures showed differentiated performance, CGB futures declined, and most commodities rose, with nickel, coke, coking coal, and stainless steel hitting the daily limit [2][9][12]. - The sharp rally in coking coal and coke was driven by both macro and industry - specific factors. The macro outlook warmed due to the PBOC's accommodative monetary policy stance, and the supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke improved marginally [18][19][20]. - The significant increase in nickel prices was due to expectations of tighter Indonesian policies, sentiment in the non - ferrous sector, low nickel valuation, and demand expectations from solid - state battery industrialization. However, the fundamental supply - demand situation remains loose with high inventories [28][29][31]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - Equity index futures: IC rose 0.5% while IF fell 0.4% [9][12]. - CGB futures: TL declined 0.44% and T dropped 0.08% [9][12]. - Commodity futures: Top three gainers were nickel (up 8.0% with 1.1% MoM increase in open interest), coke (up 8.0% with 4.6% MoM increase in open interest), and coking coal (up 8.0% with 2.3% MoM increase in open interest). Top three decliners were SCFIS (Europe) (down 3.6% with 12.7% MoM decrease in open interest), crude oil (down 2.6% with 4.3% MoM increase in open interest), and platinum (down 2.5% with 2.8% MoM decrease in open interest) [10][11][12]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Coking Coal & Coke - On January 7, coking coal rose 8.0% to 1,164 yuan per ton, and coke rose 8.0% to 1,773 yuan per ton. The rally was due to a warming macro outlook (PBOC's accommodative policy) and improved supply - demand structure (eased Mongolia coal imports and increasing pig iron output) [17][20][22]. 1.2.2 Nickel - On January 7, nickel rose 8.0% to 147,720 yuan per ton. The price increase on January 6 was driven by expectations of tighter Indonesian policies, non - ferrous sector sentiment, low valuation, and solid - state battery demand. Supply pressure lingers, demand is in the off - season, and inventories are high. Short - term strength is supported by policy and non - ferrous sentiment, and investors are advised to buy on dips and monitor Indonesian policy rollout [28][30][31]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Two ministries issued regulations stating that online trading platform operators shall not mandate or disguisedly mandate merchants to sell goods/services below cost. They also cannot impose unreasonable restrictions on merchants' independent operations [33][35]. - The PBOC increased its gold holdings for the 14th consecutive month. China's gold reserves at the end of December were 74.15 million ounces (approx. 2,306.323 tons), up 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) MoM [34][35].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant rise in gold prices, with London spot gold breaking the historical threshold of $4,400 per ounce, reaching a peak of $4,428.9 per ounce [1][3] - Major gold retailers, such as Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang, have raised their retail gold prices, with Chow Tai Fook reporting a price of 1,368 yuan per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 0.59% [1] - The increase in gold prices is supported by expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026, heightened geopolitical uncertainties, and a strong demand for gold from global central banks [3] Group 2 - According to Chen Li from Chuan Cai Securities, the international gold price may rise to a range of $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce by 2026, with extreme scenarios potentially exceeding $5,200 per ounce, driven by interest rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and central bank purchases [4] - Li Gang from the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute warns that international gold prices are sensitive to policy expectations and risk sentiment, leading to amplified volatility, suggesting that ordinary investors should avoid chasing high prices [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Central banks in major Asian economies continue to increase their gold holdings, solidifying the long-term support for gold prices [2] - The short-term outlook for gold is likely to remain volatile, influenced by market interest rate expectations and the performance of the US dollar [2][3] - The XAU/USD is hovering near the upper boundary of a bullish channel, with K-line patterns supported by the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, indicating resilient short-term buying power [2] - A significant resistance zone exists between $4215 and $4230, where multiple attempts to break through have faced setbacks, reflecting a cautious market awaiting guidance from the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [2][3] Group 2: Short-term Price Movements - If favorable factors accumulate, gold prices may break through the resistance zone, opening up upward potential; conversely, prices may test the 20-day moving average for new support [3] - The focus this week is on the Federal Reserve's meeting, which will clarify future interest rate paths; a dovish stance could lead to upward movement in gold prices [3][4] - The technical analysis indicates that the key resistance level for the current rebound is the $4220 mark, with a potential for further price action depending on the Fed's signals [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The expectations of increased production from OPEC+, the US, Brazil, and Guyana are likely to create new pressures on the oil supply-demand balance in the coming months [6] - India's increased purchases of Russian oil are alleviating supply concerns in Asia, but geopolitical uncertainties remain a potential trigger for market volatility [6][7] - WTI crude oil prices are currently experiencing low-level fluctuations, with strong support above the $60 mark, indicating resilient bullish sentiment at this critical level [6][7] Group 4: Trading Strategies - For gold, a short position may be considered when prices reach the $4225-$4228 range, with a focus on the support level around $4185-$4180 [6] - In the oil market, a long position may be initiated at $59.20/$59.0, with a stop-loss at $58.60 and a target of $60.0/$60.20 [9] - The overall oil market is characterized by a "short-term tight, long-term loose" state, driven by geopolitical events and supply disruptions [11]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of November, China's gold reserves reached 74.12 million ounces, marking an increase of 30,000 ounces month-on-month, which represents the 13th consecutive month of gold accumulation [1] Group 1 - China's gold reserves have increased to 74.12 million ounces as of November [1] - The month-on-month increase in gold reserves is 30,000 ounces [1] - This marks the 13th consecutive month of gold accumulation by China [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. employment data has significantly exceeded expectations, leading to a reduction in interest rate cut expectations for December, which has put pressure on gold prices [1][2]. Group 1: Employment Data Impact - The September non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, far surpassing the market forecast of 50,000, while the August data was revised down to a decrease of 4,000 [1]. - The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%, indicating potential challenges in the labor market [1]. - The release of this employment report has prompted investors to reassess the resilience of the U.S. labor market and the subsequent policy space [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the employment report, the market's expectation for a rate cut in December has decreased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut now at approximately 39% [1]. - The Fed's cautious stance, as reiterated by several officials, aligns with the need to balance slowing job growth against persistent inflation [1]. Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Despite the pressure from changing interest rate expectations, there remains solid support for gold due to ongoing inflows of safe-haven funds amid global macro risks [2][3]. - The People's Bank of China added 1.2 tons of gold in September, marking the 12th consecutive month of gold accumulation [2]. - Gold is currently consolidating within the range of $4,080 to $4,100, with stronger employment data limiting upward movement while ongoing central bank purchases provide a reliable support base [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The direction of gold prices will depend on upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly whether signs of further economic slowdown emerge [3]. - The overall strategy suggests maintaining flexibility in positions and avoiding heavy bets on trends, focusing on event-driven phases [4].