Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's future hawkish interest - rate cut path weighs on copper prices, but the decline in copper prices stimulates the downstream purchasing sentiment to warm up, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to be weak first and then strong [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 18, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 79,790, down 940 from the previous day; the trading volume was 88,158 lots, an increase of 20,402 lots; the open interest was 171,912 lots, a decrease of 19,604 lots; the inventory was 19,126 tons, a decrease of 822 tons [2]. - **Spot Copper**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,745, down 610 from the previous day. The average price of SMM flat - water copper's opening premium/discount was 20, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of SMM premium copper's opening premium/discount was 100, down 5 from the previous day [2]. - **LME Copper**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on September 18, 2025, was 9,946, down 28 from the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 71.09, up 0.04 from the previous day; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 160.28, down 10.03 from the previous day [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on September 18, 2025, was 4.6, down 0.1 from the previous day. The total inventory was 315,206, an increase of 2,338 from the previous day [2]. Supply - Demand - Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: There are disturbances in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a decline compared with last week. The supply of scrap copper is tight and production is cut, and the Zambian government plans to restrict the export of sulfuric acid to the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The expected tight supply - demand of domestic copper concentrates makes the processing fees of domestic blister copper or anode plates tend to decline, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September increases month - on - month. Some small and medium - sized smelters in the Democratic Republic of the Congo face power - supply problems in September 2025 [2]. - **Demand**: The expectation of the traditional consumption peak season leads to a recovery in the demand of some copper processing industries, and the decline in copper prices stimulates the downstream purchasing sentiment to warm up [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper decreased compared with last week; the inventory of LME electrolytic copper decreased compared with last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper increased compared with last week [2]. Trading Strategy - Wait for the price to fall and then layout long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 79,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 9,600 - 9,900 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500 for LME copper; the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 for COMEX copper [2].