Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and fiscal easing in multiple countries, along with production disruptions in overseas copper mines leading to a tight supply - demand outlook, may make the price of Shanghai copper more likely to rise than fall [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 29, 2025, the closing price was 82370 yuan, down 100 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 138460 lots, a decrease of 36165 lots; open interest was 213792 lots, a reduction of 15258 lots; inventory was 25603 tons, down 954 tons. The spot - futures basis and various copper price differentials also showed corresponding changes [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on September 29, 2025, was 10428.5 US dollars, up 223.5 US dollars from the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month and 3 - 15 - month contract spreads had positive changes [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on September 29, 2025, was 4.906 US dollars, an increase of 0.12 US dollars from the previous day, and the total inventory was 323207 tons, up 2151 tons [2]. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: Disruptions in the production of multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have led to a negative China copper concentrate import index, which has increased compared to last week. This has tightened the supply - demand expectation of domestic copper concentrates. The processing fees of domestic blister copper or anode plates are trending down, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters from September to October has increased month - on - month [2]. - **Demand Side**: With the significant increase in copper prices, downstream buyers mainly make purchases based on rigid demand [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China has increased compared to last week; the inventory of electrolytic copper on the London Metal Exchange has decreased, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased [2]. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to mainly establish long positions when prices decline. Pay attention to the support level around 78000 - 81000 yuan and the resistance level around 83000 - 86000 yuan for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9800 - 10000 US dollars and the resistance level around 10500 - 10800 US dollars for London copper, the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 US dollars and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 US dollars for COMEX copper [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's future hawkish interest - rate cut path weighs on copper prices, but the decline in copper prices stimulates the downstream purchasing sentiment to warm up, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to be weak first and then strong [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 18, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 79,790, down 940 from the previous day; the trading volume was 88,158 lots, an increase of 20,402 lots; the open interest was 171,912 lots, a decrease of 19,604 lots; the inventory was 19,126 tons, a decrease of 822 tons [2]. - **Spot Copper**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,745, down 610 from the previous day. The average price of SMM flat - water copper's opening premium/discount was 20, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of SMM premium copper's opening premium/discount was 100, down 5 from the previous day [2]. - **LME Copper**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on September 18, 2025, was 9,946, down 28 from the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 71.09, up 0.04 from the previous day; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 160.28, down 10.03 from the previous day [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on September 18, 2025, was 4.6, down 0.1 from the previous day. The total inventory was 315,206, an increase of 2,338 from the previous day [2]. Supply - Demand - Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: There are disturbances in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a decline compared with last week. The supply of scrap copper is tight and production is cut, and the Zambian government plans to restrict the export of sulfuric acid to the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The expected tight supply - demand of domestic copper concentrates makes the processing fees of domestic blister copper or anode plates tend to decline, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September increases month - on - month. Some small and medium - sized smelters in the Democratic Republic of the Congo face power - supply problems in September 2025 [2]. - **Demand**: The expectation of the traditional consumption peak season leads to a recovery in the demand of some copper processing industries, and the decline in copper prices stimulates the downstream purchasing sentiment to warm up [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper decreased compared with last week; the inventory of LME electrolytic copper decreased compared with last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper increased compared with last week [2]. Trading Strategy - Wait for the price to fall and then layout long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 79,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 9,600 - 9,900 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500 for LME copper; the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 for COMEX copper [2].