Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's future hawkish interest - rate cut path weighs on copper prices, but the decline in copper prices stimulates the downstream purchasing sentiment to warm up, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to be weak first and then strong [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 18, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 79,790, down 940 from the previous day; the trading volume was 88,158 lots, an increase of 20,402 lots; the open interest was 171,912 lots, a decrease of 19,604 lots; the inventory was 19,126 tons, a decrease of 822 tons [2]. - **Spot Copper**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,745, down 610 from the previous day. The average price of SMM flat - water copper's opening premium/discount was 20, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of SMM premium copper's opening premium/discount was 100, down 5 from the previous day [2]. - **LME Copper**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on September 18, 2025, was 9,946, down 28 from the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 71.09, up 0.04 from the previous day; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 160.28, down 10.03 from the previous day [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on September 18, 2025, was 4.6, down 0.1 from the previous day. The total inventory was 315,206, an increase of 2,338 from the previous day [2]. Supply - Demand - Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: There are disturbances in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a decline compared with last week. The supply of scrap copper is tight and production is cut, and the Zambian government plans to restrict the export of sulfuric acid to the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The expected tight supply - demand of domestic copper concentrates makes the processing fees of domestic blister copper or anode plates tend to decline, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September increases month - on - month. Some small and medium - sized smelters in the Democratic Republic of the Congo face power - supply problems in September 2025 [2]. - **Demand**: The expectation of the traditional consumption peak season leads to a recovery in the demand of some copper processing industries, and the decline in copper prices stimulates the downstream purchasing sentiment to warm up [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper decreased compared with last week; the inventory of LME electrolytic copper decreased compared with last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper increased compared with last week [2]. Trading Strategy - Wait for the price to fall and then layout long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 79,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 9,600 - 9,900 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500 for LME copper; the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 for COMEX copper [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that due to uncertainties in the Fed's future rate - cut amplitude, the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season but the high copper price suppressing potential demand, the Shanghai copper price may experience adjustments [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Overview - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 80,880, down 60 from the previous day; the trading volume was 88,548 hands, an increase of 19,677 hands; the open interest was 165,216 hands, a decrease of 14,040 hands; the inventory was 33,692 tons, an increase of 3,049 tons [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium**: The Shanghai copper basis was 240 on September 16, 2025, up 240 from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 81,120, up 180 from the previous day [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on September 16, 2025, was 10,117, down 72 from the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 59.26, up 2.67 from the previous day [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on September 16, 2025, was 4.6991, up 0.05 from the previous day. The total inventory was 312,868, an increase of 2,381 from the previous day [2]. Supply - Demand - Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: There are disturbances in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a decrease compared to last week. The supply - demand expectation of scrap copper is tight, causing the processing fees of domestic blister copper or anode plates to decline. Copper smelters' maintenance capacity in September increased month - on - month. Some small and medium - sized smelters in the DRC reduced production in September 2025 due to water - power supply shortages, and the Zambian government plans to restrict the export of sulfuric acid to the DRC [2]. - **Demand**: The expectation of the traditional consumption peak season has led to a recovery in demand in some copper - processing industries. However, high copper prices have made downstream enterprises mainly consume existing inventories and only make rigid - demand purchases [2]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic copper social inventory increased compared to last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared to last week; COMEX copper inventory increased compared to last week [2]. Trading Strategy - For previous long positions, take profits at high prices or wait for the price to fall before laying out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 79,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, pay attention to the support level around 9,600 - 9,900 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Fed's September interest rate cut expectation has increased, and the traditional peak consumption season has led to an initial recovery in downstream demand, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish. Traders are advised to mainly lay out long positions after the price retreats, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 15, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 80,940, a decrease of 120 from the previous day; the trading volume was 68,871 lots, a decrease of 22,685; the open interest was 179,256 lots, a decrease of 7,620; the inventory was 30,643 tons, an increase of 5,083 [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The Shanghai copper basis was 0, an increase of 305; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper - semi - average price was 80,940, an increase of 185; various copper premium/discount prices showed different changes [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,189, an increase of 121.5; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 61.93, an increase of 11.49; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 158.15, an increase of 9.33; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.9439, a decrease of 0.11 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.719, an increase of 0.05; the total inventory was 305,345 (with a change of - 309,834 compared to a previous value) [2]. Important Information - Some small and medium - sized smelters in the Congo - Kinshasa region have reduced production due to water and electricity supply shortages in September 2025, and the Zambian government plans to restrict the export of sulfuric acid to the Congo - Kinshasa, which poses challenges to the production recovery in the Congo - Kinshasa as most of its copper production uses the mixed - process method [2]. Multi - Empty Logic - **Supply Side**: There are disturbances in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a decrease compared to last week. The supply - demand expectation of domestic copper concentrates is tight, the supply - demand expectation of scrap copper is tight, leading to a decline in domestic crude copper or anode plate processing fees. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September has increased month - on - month. Some small and medium - sized smelters in the Congo - Kinshasa reduced production in September 2025 due to water and electricity supply shortages, and the Zambian government plans to restrict the export of sulfuric acid to the Congo - Kinshasa [2]. - **Demand Side**: The expectation of the traditional peak consumption season has led to a partial recovery in the demand of some copper processing industries, but the high copper price suppresses the downstream potential demand [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has increased compared to last week; the inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange has decreased compared to last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased compared to last week [2]. Trading Strategy Traders should mainly lay out long positions after the price retreats. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 79,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,600 - 9,900 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500 for London copper, and the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 for US copper [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The Fed's rate - cut expectations and the recovery of downstream demand support aluminum prices. The prices of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy are affected by different supply - demand and cost factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each [2]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Alumina - **Price Trends**: The national average price of alumina on September 12, 2025, was 3077.47 yuan/ton, showing a decline compared to previous days. The closing price of alumina futures was 2914 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 31 yuan/ton. The volume, open interest, and inventory also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Factors**: Guinea's rainy season and bauxite production fluctuations led to rising prices of domestic and imported bauxite. China's alumina production capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory of alumina in Chinese alumina and electrolytic aluminum plants and the daily inventory of alumina in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased. Although the operating capacity of alumina is high and the supply - demand is expected to be loose, the rising cost of bauxite limits the downward space of alumina prices [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Gradually layout long positions when the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 2800 - 2900 and the resistance level around 3300 - 3600 [2]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Price Trends**: The average price of SMM A00 aluminum on September 12, 2025, was 21020 yuan/ton, showing an increase. The closing price of electrolytic aluminum futures was 21120 yuan/ton, with an increase of 205 yuan/ton. There were also changes in volume, open interest, and inventory [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Factors**: On the supply side, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is high due to good production profits, but the expected new replacement capacity is limited. The social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum, the daily inventory of LME electrolytic aluminum, and the inventory of aluminum rods in various regions of China decreased. On the demand side, the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season led to an increase in the operating capacity of most downstream aluminum processing industries [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly layout long positions when the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 20400 - 20700 and the resistance level around 21000 - 21500 for Shanghai aluminum, and the support level around 2500 - 2600 and the resistance level around 2700 - 2800 for LME aluminum [2]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price Trends**: The average price of SMM ADC12 (primary aluminum) on September 12, 2025, was 22100 yuan/ton, showing an increase. The closing price of the active contract of cast aluminum alloy futures was 20645 yuan/ton, with an increase of 170 yuan/ton. There were also changes in volume and open interest [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Factors**: The daily full - cost production cost of China's recycled aluminum alloy IDC12 is 20380 yuan/ton, and the profit is positive, resulting in an increase in the production capacity utilization rate of recycled aluminum alloy. The social inventory of aluminum alloy, the daily inventory of recycled aluminum alloy in Ningbo, Wuxi, and Foshan, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased. The domestic scrap aluminum supply - demand is expected to be tight, the production cost of recycled aluminum alloy is rising, but the profit is decreasing [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on aluminum alloy at low prices in the short - term or try to go short on the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy at high prices. Pay attention to the support level around 20000 - 20200 and the resistance level around 20500 - 21000 [2]. Overseas Aluminum Market - **Price Trends**: The closing price of LME 3 - month aluminum futures on September 12, 2025, was 10067.5 US dollars/ton, showing an increase. The 0 - 3 - month contract spread of LME aluminum futures was - 61.54, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 171.32 [2]. - **Ratio**: The ratio of Shanghai - London aluminum prices was 7.8193 [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Fed's September rate - cut expectation has risen, and the traditional consumption peak season has led to an initial improvement in new orders for enameled copper wire, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to fluctuate strongly [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On September 11, 2025, the closing price was 80,130, up 340 from the previous day; the trading volume was 64,849 lots, down 9,691 lots; the open interest was 174,453 lots, up 2,541 lots; the inventory was 20,028 tons, up 902 tons; the Shanghai copper basis was 45, up 90 [2] - **London Copper**: On September 11, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,051.5, up 38.5; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 61.54, down 4.93; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 171.32, down 10.28; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.9719, up slightly [2] - **COMEX Copper**: On September 11, 2025, the copper futures active contract closing price was 4.671, up 0.1; the total inventory was 309,834, up 2,138 [2] 2. Important Information - As of September 11, the weekly inventory of copper in mainstream regions in China decreased by 0.26 million tons to 14.43 million tons. Due to delivery demand, the in - transit inventory reached a record high. SMM expects that with continuous arrival of imported goods and weak demand, copper inventory will increase slightly [2] - In 2025, the investment of the State Grid continued to be booming, with a planned total investment of about 825 billion yuan. Stable orders from the State Grid will provide continuous demand support, and the acceleration of project progress in the second half of the year will ensure the stable operation of the wire and cable industry, offsetting the weak demand from downstream industries such as construction [2] 3. Supply - Demand Logic - **Supply**: Freeport's Indonesian mine had an accident and suspended mining, and there were disruptions in copper mine production at home and abroad. The China copper concentrate import index was negative but higher than last week, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates, and a decline in domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September increased month - on - month [2] - **Demand**: New orders for copper enameled wire showed an initial month - on - month improvement, but high copper prices suppressed downstream purchasing willingness [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper decreased slightly compared with last week, but delivery demand increased the in - transit inventory; the inventory of LME electrolytic copper decreased compared with last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper increased [2] 4. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly place long orders after the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 78,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,800 - 10,000 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500 for London copper, the support level around 4.0 - 4.3 and the resistance level around 4.7 - 5.0 for US copper [2]

Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and the traditional consumption peak season may lead to a slightly stronger and fluctuating price of Shanghai copper [2]. - The continuous arrival of imported copper and the weak demand may cause a slight increase in copper inventory [2]. - The high - investment in the national power grid in 2025 can provide support for the wire and cable industry and offset the weak demand from downstream industries to some extent [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On September 11, 2025, the closing price was 80,130, up 340 from the previous day; the trading volume was 64,849 lots, a decrease of 20,309 lots; the open interest was 174,453 lots, an increase of 2,541 lots; the inventory was 20,028 tons, an increase of 902 tons; the basis was 45, up 90 [2]. - **London Copper**: On September 11, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,051.5, up 38.5; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 61.54, down 4.93; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 171.32, down 10.28 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On September 11, 2025, the closing price of the copper futures active contract was 4.671, up 0.10; the total inventory was 309,834, an increase of 2,138 [2]. Important Information - **Inventory**: As of September 11, the domestic mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.26 million tons to 14.43 million tons this week. The in - transit inventory reached a record high due to delivery demand. SMM expects that with the continuous arrival of imported goods and weak demand, the copper inventory will increase slightly [2]. - **National Grid Investment**: In 2025, the investment of the national power grid continued to be booming, with a planned total investment of about 825 billion yuan. The stable orders of the national power grid can provide continuous demand support, and the acceleration of project progress in the second half of the year will ensure the stable operation of the wire and cable industry [2]. Long - Short Logic - **Supply**: The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia under Freeport suspended mining due to an accident on September 8. There are disruptions in the production of many domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative but rising China copper concentrate import index. The supply - demand of domestic copper concentrates is expected to be tight, and the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates tend to decline. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September has increased [2]. - **Demand**: New orders for copper enameled wires have shown signs of improvement, but high copper prices suppress the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has slightly decreased, but the in - transit inventory has increased due to delivery demand; the inventory of LME electrolytic copper has decreased, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased [2]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly place long orders after the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 78,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,800 - 10,000 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500 for London copper, and the support level around 4.0 - 4.3 and the resistance level around 4.7 - 5.0 for US copper [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The copper price is supported by cost due to low TC fees for copper mines and firm raw material quotes. Domestic refined copper production may decline due to smelter maintenance and supply shortages of raw materials. In the short term, the strong copper price suppresses downstream purchasing sentiment, but in the long term, demand is expected to increase during the traditional consumption peak season. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly increases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows the double - line above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position and control the trading rhythm and risk [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 80,130 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,006.50 dollars/ton, down 6.50 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 30 yuan/ton, unchanged. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 174,453 hands, up 2,541 hands. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 3,305 hands, up 5,005 hands. The LME copper inventory is 155,050 tons, down 225 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 81,851 tons, up 2,103 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 21,725 tons, down 225 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 20,028 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 80,175 yuan/ton, up 430 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 80,190 yuan/ton, up 395 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 62 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 61 dollars/ton, down 5.50 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is 45 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 56.61 dollars/ton, up 21.41 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 256.01 million tons, up 21.05 million tons. The TC fee for domestic copper smelters is - 40.85 dollars/thousand tons, up 0.63 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 70,480 yuan/metal ton, up 390 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 71,180 yuan/metal ton, up 390 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north, it is also 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The production of refined copper is 127 million tons, down 3.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 425,000 tons, down 55,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,390 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,800 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 590 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The production of copper products is 216.94 million tons, down 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 331.497 billion yuan, up 40.431 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 5,357.977 billion yuan, up 692.221 billion yuan. The monthly production of integrated circuits is 4,689,220,700 pieces, up 183,435,300 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 7.37%, down 0.19%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.40%, up 0.03%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option is 10.32%, up 0.0011%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 1.35, down 0.0442 [2]. Industry News - In August in the US, PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, turning negative for the first time in four months. The year - on - year increase was 2.6%, lower than the expected 3.3%. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, expressing China's stance on Sino - US relations. Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fuan stated that more proactive fiscal policies will be used to support employment and foreign trade. In August in China, CPI was flat month - on - month and decreased 0.4% year - on - year, while core CPI increased 0.9% year - on - year. PPI decreased 2.9% year - on - year with a narrowing decline, and was flat month - on - month. Chinese National Development and Reform Commission Director Zheng栅洁 reported on the implementation of the national economic and social development plan, emphasizing the importance of various economic work balances [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is expected to be supported as the peak season approaches and demand recovers. The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and stable demand, while the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a situation of stable and slight increase in supply and gradually rising demand [5]. - It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading on the main contract of Shanghai aluminum at low prices and light - position oscillating trading on the main contract of alumina, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - Given that the future aluminum price is expected to be supported, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [77]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum showed a slightly upward trend, rising 0.53% to 20,740 yuan/ton, while alumina showed a slightly downward trend, falling 3.25% to 3,036 yuan/ton. Cast aluminum's main contract first rose and then fell, rising 0.87% to 20,350 yuan/ton [5][7]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Alumina**: The supply of bauxite is expected to gradually decline due to the rainy season in Guinea. Although raw material shipments will be affected, the supply of domestic alumina may remain stable with a slight increase due to sufficient port inventory and good smelting profits. The demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum will remain stable. The industry is expected to gradually recover as the traditional peak season approaches [5]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply of alumina is relatively loose, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is good, so smelters are more active in production. The domestic supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to remain stable with a slight increase. With the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, domestic demand is expected to pick up, although export demand will decline due to tariff issues [5]. - **Cast Aluminum**: High raw material costs may lead to a reduction in smelter production capacity. With the arrival of the peak season and government subsidies, consumption is expected to recover, and high - level inventory may gradually be reduced [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Light - position short - term long trading on the main contract of Shanghai aluminum at low prices and light - position oscillating trading on the main contract of alumina and cast aluminum, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5][7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movements**: - As of August 29, 2025, Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,765 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from August 22; LME aluminum closed at 2,607 dollars/ton on August 28, up 1.16% from August 21. The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.97, up 0.12 from August 22 [10][11]. - Alumina futures weakened, with the price dropping 3.87% to 3,006 yuan/ton from August 22 to August 29. Cast aluminum futures rose, with the price rising 0.87% to 20,350 yuan/ton during the same period [14]. - The copper - aluminum price difference increased by 610 yuan/ton to 58,670 yuan/ton, and the aluminum - zinc price difference decreased by 245 yuan/ton to 1,400 yuan/ton from August 22 to August 29 [22]. - In the spot market, alumina prices in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang decreased slightly, while the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) rose 1.47% to 20,750 yuan/ton from August 22 to August 29. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingots decreased by 0.14% to 20,720 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened [25][32]. - **Position Changes**: As of August 29, 2025, the position of Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.29% to 576,966 lots, and the net position of the top 20 decreased by 8,544 lots to 4,602 lots compared with August 22 [17]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: - As of August 28, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 0.34% to 481,150 tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 5% to 567,000 tons. As of August 29, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 0.8% to 125,596 tons, and the total SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased by 2.6% to 58,629 tons [36][37]. - The total inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 2,788 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18 million tons [40]. - **Raw Material Imports**: - In July 2025, the import volume of bauxite was 20.063 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.75% and a year - on - year increase of 34.22%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 123.2607 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.65% [40]. - In July 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 160,494.61 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.68%, and the export volume was 79.39 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.91% [46]. - **Production and Trade**: - In July 2025, alumina production was 7.5649 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 52.6721 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. In July, the import volume was 125,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.29% and a year - on - year increase of 53.33%, and the export volume was 230,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50.91% [48][49]. - In July 2025, the import volume of electrolytic aluminum was 248,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91.19%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 1.4975 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The export volume in July was 41,000 tons [52]. - In July 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 26.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. In July, the domestic in - production capacity was 44.229 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.16% and a year - on - year increase of 1.68%; the total capacity was 45.232 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.06% and a year - on - year increase of 0.52%; the operating rate was 97.78%, up 0.1% from the previous month and down 1.11% from the same period last year [56，]. - In July 2025, aluminum product production was 5.4837 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 38.4699 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In July, the import volume was 360,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.2%, and the export volume was 540,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6% [60]. - In June 2025, the monthly production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87% and a year - on - year increase of 19.22%. The production volume was 618,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.48% and a year - on - year increase of 5.49% [63]. - In July 2025, aluminum alloy production was 1.536 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 10.628 million tons. In July, the import volume was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.39%, and the export volume was 24,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.3% [66]. - **Downstream Markets**: - In July 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.34, down 0.25 from the previous month and up 1.23 from the same period last year. From January to July 2024, the new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%, and the housing completion area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21.19% [69]. - From January to July 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 7.29% year - on - year. In July 2025, China's automobile sales were 2,593,410 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%, and the production was 2,591,084 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [72]. 4. Options Market Analysis Given that the future aluminum price is expected to be supported, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [77].