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宝城期货贵金属有色早报(2025年11月18日)-20251118
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 01:12
Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: Short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a downward bias" respectively, and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic is that the Fed has turned hawkish, causing the gold price to decline in the short term [1][3]. - Copper: Short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "strength", and "oscillation with an upward bias" respectively, and the reference view is "long - term bullish". The core logic is that macro - economic conditions are loose and there are mine - end production cuts. In the short term, the Fed's hawkish stance and technical pressure at historical highs may cause copper prices to oscillate, but in the long - term, macro - economic easing and supply contraction expectations will support copper prices [1][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: On Friday, the gold price dropped significantly from its high, erasing all weekly gains. On Monday, it maintained a weak trend, with the New York gold price diving in the late trading and approaching the $4000 mark [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The recent decline in the gold price is largely due to the Fed's hawkish turn. CME FedWatch Tool data shows that the market's expectation of a rate cut in December 2025 has dropped below 50%. Short - term gold price has fallen after a rise, and long - position holders have a strong willingness to take profits. Attention should be paid to the support at the $4000 mark of New York gold [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Overnight, the copper price continued its weak oscillation. The recent decline in the copper price is mainly due to the Fed's hawkish turn, which has reduced the market's rate - cut expectations. The London copper price is at a near - 5 - year high and faces strong technical pressure [4]. - **Driving Factors**: In the short term, the Fed's hawkish stance and technical pressure at historical highs may cause copper prices to oscillate. In the long - term, macro - economic easing and supply contraction expectations will support copper prices [4].
宝城期货贵金属有色早报(2025年11月17日)-20251117
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 01:49
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For gold, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively, with a reference view of "wait - and - see". The core logic is that the Fed turning hawkish has led to a short - term decline in gold prices [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "strong", "strong", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively, with a reference view of "long - term bullish". The core logic is that macro - economic easing and supply contraction expectations will support copper prices in the long run [1][4]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - Last week, gold prices first rose and then fell. The rise was due to the restoration of market liquidity after the US government "re - opened", with New York gold rebounding above $4200 and Shanghai gold above 960 yuan. The sharp decline on Friday was mainly due to the Fed turning hawkish. In the short term, gold prices have fallen after rising, and long - position holders have a strong willingness to close positions. Continuously monitor the support at the $4000 level for New York gold [3]. Copper (CU) - Last week, copper prices also first rose and then fell, similar to the trend of gold prices. The rise was due to the US Senate reaching an agreement to end the federal government "shutdown", which increased market risk appetite and restored market liquidity. The decline was due to the Fed turning hawkish and the decrease in market expectations of interest rate cuts. Additionally, LME copper is at a near - 5 - year high and faces strong technical pressure. In the long - term, macro - economic easing and supply contraction expectations will support copper prices. In the short term, monitor the resistance at the $11,000 level for LME copper [4].