Core Insights - The article discusses the performance of various ETFs, highlighting the resilience of the chemical and non-ferrous metal sectors amidst market fluctuations [5][19]. Market Overview - As of February 6, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index have percentile PE ratios of 98.89%, 91.35%, and 46.11% respectively, indicating a high valuation environment [1]. - The chemical ETF (516020) increased by 2.37%, while the non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) rose by 0.18%, showcasing sector resilience [17][19]. Sector Performance - The top three sectors with net inflows include: - Electric Power Equipment: 2.522 billion - Basic Chemicals: 2.065 billion - Machinery: 0.805 billion [2][11] - The sectors with the highest net outflows are: - Communication: -4.440 billion - Media: -4.133 billion - Computers: -3.133 billion [2][11]. ETF Performance - The following ETFs showed notable performance: - Chemical ETF: 2.37% increase, with a 6-month performance of 44.66% [14]. - Green Energy ETF: 1.51% increase, with a 6-month performance of 35.35% [14]. - New Materials ETF: 1.32% increase, with a 6-month performance of 38.61% [14]. - The non-ferrous metal ETF has been identified as part of a long-term investment strategy, with expectations of high profitability lasting 3-5 years due to supply-demand mismatches and macroeconomic support [19]. Institutional Insights - Guotai Junan Securities continues to favor investment opportunities in the chemical sector, recommending focus on leading companies and price recovery products [19]. - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to maintain high profitability driven by macroeconomic factors and industry upgrades [19].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sell-off in technology stocks due to Microsoft's AI spending disclosure and the hawkish Federal Reserve nominee has impacted the non-ferrous metal sector, but the core support remains unchanged with global monetary easing continuing to support the manufacturing upcycle and steady growth in stainless steel demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is experiencing a price increase across various products, with January prices for 304 round bars rising by 1,750 CNY/ton to 13,900 CNY/ton and 316L round bars increasing by 2,200 CNY/ton to 25,100 CNY/ton [1]. - The price of 304 wire rods has risen by 1,200 CNY/ton to 14,600 CNY/ton, while 316L wire rods have increased by 2,300 CNY/ton to 26,700 CNY/ton [2]. - Overall, the stainless steel sector is expected to see positive demand post-holiday, despite short-term fluctuations in the global financial market [2]. Group 2: Raw Material Supply - Nickel supply is projected to decline significantly by 2026, driven by signals from Indonesian authorities, which will support nickel prices and provide a cost foundation for stainless steel [1]. - The price of nickel pig iron is showing a strong upward trend, reinforcing the cost support for stainless steel prices, which is a core positive factor for the industry [1]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term market volatility, the long-term upward trend for the stainless steel sector remains intact, supported by macroeconomic easing and the tightening of nickel supply from Indonesia [3].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing significant price fluctuations, with gold, silver, copper, aluminum, and rare earths reaching new highs in 2025, but recent market volatility has raised questions about the sustainability of this trend [2][18]. Group 1: Price Fluctuations and Market Dynamics - The recent sharp decline in metal prices has left the market confused about whether this is a peak cycle or a short-term adjustment [5][20]. - The non-ferrous metals sector saw over a 90% increase in 2025, with gold prices rising over 23% in January 2026 and silver over 60% for the year [22][6]. - Profit-taking by investors after substantial gains has triggered corrections in some metal prices [23]. Group 2: Macro and Supply-Demand Factors - Global macroeconomic changes, such as the unexpected rise in the U.S. CPI, have led to a reduction in the expected number of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could strengthen the dollar and suppress metal prices [24]. - The supply-demand imbalance is a core driver of price strength in basic and new energy metals, with traditional metals like copper and aluminum facing supply constraints and increasing demand from energy transitions [27]. - The geopolitical climate and economic uncertainties are elevating market risk aversion, making gold a preferred safe-haven asset [28]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Market Outlook - The underlying logic for investing in non-ferrous metals remains intact, with expectations of continued demand from emerging industries and a loose monetary environment [11][28]. - Investors are advised to be cautious of high leverage in the futures market and to monitor ETF premium risks, especially when market conditions change [29][30]. - The recent downturn in non-ferrous metals does not indicate a fundamental reversal, suggesting a potential shift into a phase of structural differentiation within the sector [32].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the non - ferrous metals (copper) industry. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Copper main contract has been continuously trading above 100,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper price has been fluctuating around $13,000/ton. The market shows a "near - weak, far - strong" futures - spot structure, with converging monthly spreads of futures contracts and continuous accumulation of domestic electrolytic copper social inventories, indicating pressure on the spot market and cautious downstream procurement, while forward contracts remain strong due to expected supply - demand tightness [6][63]. - The global financial environment is shifting towards easing. Major economies are adopting looser monetary policies, releasing large - scale liquidity, leading to an upswing in global stock and commodity markets. Copper has stood out in this asset rally, breaking through the post - 2020 infinite QE high in Q4 2025, supported by its solid supply - demand fundamentals [6][63]. - In 2026, against the backdrop of macro - easing, rigid supply constraints and green intelligent demand will continue to drive up copper prices, strengthening the long - term upward foundation for copper prices. However, frequent global geopolitical events since the New Year and the significant price increase since December 2025 have led to strong short - term profit - taking intentions. Copper prices may oscillate at high levels, waiting for the industry to catch up [6][64]. 3. Summary by Report Sections 3.1 Market Review - Price Trend: The Shanghai Copper main contract has been trading above 100,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper price has been fluctuating around $13,000/ton. The trading volume of Shanghai Copper reached 700,000 contracts at one point and then declined as the upward trend of copper prices slowed [9]. - Market Structure: The market shows a "near - weak, far - strong" futures - spot structure. Converging monthly spreads of futures contracts and continuous inventory build - up in the domestic electrolytic copper market indicate pressure on the spot market and cautious downstream procurement, while forward contracts remain strong due to expected supply - demand tightness [10]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Fluctuating Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts - In January 2026, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in March or April dropped from around 50% at the beginning of the month to below 30% by the end of the month. The decline in the rate - cut probability was accompanied by a rebound of the US dollar index, which then weakened due to the intensification of US tariff policies towards Europe and South Korea [14]. 3.2.2 Frequent Geopolitical Events - Since the New Year, geopolitical events such as the US military action in Venezuela, the tense situation in Iran, and the Greenland issue have increased gold prices and reduced market risk appetite, negatively affecting copper prices. These ongoing geopolitical hotspots have created a high - risk, low - certainty international environment that suppresses the risk appetite of the global market and exerts downward pressure on copper prices [15]. 3.2.3 Domestic Macroeconomic Easing and High - Quality Industrial Development - In January 2026, China's fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies were coordinated to support domestic demand, scientific innovation, and market expectations, providing a solid macro - policy foundation for copper's downstream demand. - The State Grid plans to invest 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five - Year Plan period (2026 - 2030), a 40% increase from the previous period, which will drive copper consumption through ultra - high - voltage, distribution network, and new energy sectors and strengthen copper's strategic position in energy transformation [17]. 3.3 Industry Analysis 3.3.1 Persistent Disturbances at the Mining End - From January to November 2025, the global copper mine production increased by only about 1% year - on - year. Some major copper mines faced declining ore grades and unexpected incidents, which restricted production growth. - In Chile, the total production decreased by 1.3% due to the decline in some mines. In Peru, production increased by 2.4% due to the increase in several mines. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, production was estimated to increase by 6.5%. Mongolia's copper concentrate production increased by 34%, while Indonesia's production decreased by about 40% [18][19]. 3.3.2 Marginal Relaxation of Domestic Mining Supply - On January 23, 2026, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 569,000 tons, a decrease of about 100,000 tons month - on - month and about 140,000 tons year - on - year, indicating tightening domestic copper ore supply. The high sulfuric acid price and low TC processing fees in January led to a decline in smelter profits compared to December [20][25]. 3.3.3 Contraction of Refined Copper Supply - From January to November 2025, the global electrolytic copper production was 26.177 million tons, a 3.81% increase year - on - year, with primary copper increasing by 3.08% and recycled copper by 7.44%. China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (accounting for about 57% of global production) are expected to have a combined growth of 9%, while the rest of the world's refined copper production decreased by about 1.7% [26][27]. - The global electrolytic copper consumption from January to November 2025 was 25.89 million tons, a 3.96% increase year - on - year. China's apparent demand for refined copper is expected to increase by about 5.5%, with a 11% decline in net imports. Ex - China consumption increased by about 1.8% [30][31][32]. 3.3.4 Counter - seasonal Inventory Build - up of Electrolytic Copper - As of January 26, 2026, the global exchange inventory was 962,100 tons, an increase of 210,400 tons from the previous month and 510,400 tons from the same period last year. There was a significant divergence between domestic and overseas inventories, with overseas inventories rising continuously at a high level and domestic inventories building up seasonally [41][44]. 3.3.5 Downstream End - Users - Power grid infrastructure construction underpins about 50% of copper's terminal consumption. The State Grid's planned investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five - Year Plan period will drive copper consumption through ultra - high - voltage, distribution network, and new energy sectors [46][48]. - In 2025, from January to November, the cumulative new photovoltaic installed capacity was 274.89GW, a 33.25% increase year - on - year, and the cumulative new wind power installed capacity was 82.5GW, a 59.42% increase year - on - year. - In 2025, the real estate industry showed negative growth in development investment, new construction area, sales area, and completion area. - In 2025, the production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines increased slightly, while home appliance exports decreased by 0.6% year - on - year. - In 2025, China's automobile production was 34.7785 million vehicles, a 9.8% increase year - on - year, and the new energy vehicle production was 16.524 million vehicles, a 25.1% increase year - on - year, with a penetration rate of 47.51% [51][55][58][61]. 3.4 Conclusion - The Shanghai Copper main contract has been trading above 100,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper price has been fluctuating around $13,000/ton. The market shows a "near - weak, far - strong" futures - spot structure. - The global financial environment is shifting towards easing, and copper has outperformed in the asset rally due to its solid supply - demand fundamentals. - In 2026, copper prices have a solid long - term upward foundation but may oscillate at high levels in the short term due to geopolitical events and profit - taking intentions [63][64].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The nickel and stainless - steel sectors in the non - ferrous metals industry are affected by multiple factors, with prices showing different trends. The nickel price is expected to oscillate sharply between 135,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,400 - 14,500 yuan/ton [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 12, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 140,000 yuan/ton and closed at 144,200 yuan/ton, up 5.65% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,083,202 (-38,224) lots, and the open interest was 124,148 (+3,553) lots. The price increase was driven by supply contraction expectations, macro - easing, and geopolitical risk premiums, along with the overall rise of non - ferrous and precious metals sectors [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm with limited resources. Affected by macro factors, the price was strong. Philippine mines were eager to sell at higher prices. In Indonesia, the February 2026 domestic trade base price was expected to rise by 2.8 - 4.9 dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium was +25, with a range of +25 - 26. Factories might push down the premium due to cost pressure [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 150,600 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was average, with strong reluctance to sell low - priced resources. The spot premiums of refined nickel were stable or rising. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 39,670 (+814) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 284,562 (-228) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Due to the game between supply contraction expectations and the reality of the off - peak demand season, combined with short - term disturbances from macro sentiment and capital behavior, the price is expected to oscillate sharply between 135,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to focus on range operations and be cautious when chasing high prices. The strategy for single - side trading is range - based, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Stainless - steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 12, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 13,870 yuan/ton and closed at 13,855 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 256,679 (-44,151) lots, and the open interest was 128,736 (-4,171) lots. Affected by the rise of LME nickel, the night trading session opened high and moved high, and the daily trading session was suppressed by weak demand, with the price gradually falling and oscillating between 13,800 - 13,880 yuan/ton in the afternoon [3]. - **Spot**: The futures price increase drove the spot price up, but downstream buyers were reluctant to buy at high prices, resulting in poor inquiry and trading. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 13,900 (+100) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 13,775 (+50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 115 - 315 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron increased by 10.00 yuan/nickel point to 972.0 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. - **Strategy** - The uncertainty of Indonesian policies has a significant impact on the cost of stainless steel, which will be the main short - term price trend logic. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,400 - 14,500 yuan/ton. However, the dismal spot trading may suppress price rebounds. The single - side trading strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Aluminum is a good long - position allocation variety under the support of macro and fundamental prospects, and institutions are highly consistent in bullish on Shanghai Aluminum in 2026, with the target price pointed to the 25,000 yuan mark, and the peak may be higher this year [1][2][3] - Short - term capital boosts Shanghai Aluminum to hit historical highs, which deviates from the fundamentals. Speculative participation should be cautious, and aluminum smelters' selling hedging is cost - effective [3] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Performance in 2025 - 2026 - In 2025, precious metals led by gold had the largest annual market since 1979. At the end of the year, silver, platinum, etc. soared, and copper in non - ferrous metals rose over 35%, tin over 40%, while aluminum only rose 15% [1] - At the beginning of 2026, due to the US military action against Venezuela, precious metals strengthened again, and funds were allocated to aluminum, pushing Shanghai Aluminum to 24,000 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Policy Environment - In 2026, the commodity rise is driven by macro - easing and tight supply - demand expectations. The Fed may cut interest rates, and a dovish Fed chairman is likely to be appointed, maintaining the global easing trend [2] - In China, as the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", there are strong policy expectations. The government has issued policies on equipment renewal, consumer goods replacement, and grid construction, providing support for aluminum's traditional application scenarios [2] 3.3 Aluminum Market Supply and Demand - The demand for aluminum is expected to increase due to policy support, and the consumption scenarios are expanding. However, the supply is restricted, with domestic production capacity approaching the ceiling and overseas production capacity limited by electricity. There is a risk of over 500,000 tons of production suspension at a Mozambique aluminum plant in Q1, and the aluminum market is expected to be in short supply in 2026 with low inventory becoming the norm [2] 3.4 Investment Suggestions and Risks - Shanghai Aluminum's valuation is rising, but the fundamental reality shows weakness, and there is a risk of industrial negative feedback. Short - term speculation should be cautious, and aluminum smelters' selling hedging is cost - effective as the profit per ton of aluminum has soared to around 8,000 yuan [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and copper, with a reference view of "wait - and - see" for both [1] - For gold, short - term and medium - term trends are strong, and the intraday trend is oscillating upward; for copper, the short - term trend is oscillating, and the medium - term and intraday trends are oscillating upward [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Situation**: Yesterday, the gold price rose and then fell. Shanghai gold remained above the 1000 - yuan mark, and New York gold was above the 4500 - dollar mark [3] - **Driving Factors**: The short - term upward push of the gold price comes from the monetary policies of the US and Japanese central banks. Since the Sino - US summit in late October, the gold price has been under pressure and oscillating at a high level. Currently, the macro - economic easing promotes the general rise of assets, pushing the gold price to break through. During the overseas Christmas and New Year holidays, the domestic market may be cautious, and the gold price may show a high - level oscillation [3] Copper - **Price Situation**: Yesterday, the copper prices in both domestic and foreign markets rose and then fell. The main contract of Shanghai copper once reached the 96,000 - yuan mark, and LME copper once exceeded 12,200 dollars, hitting a record high. Then, due to the approaching Christmas holiday, the copper price fell from the high level. Shanghai copper once dropped to the 94,000 - yuan mark, and LME copper dropped to 12,000 dollars and then stabilized and rebounded [5] - **Driving Factors**: The Christmas and New Year holidays lead to light trading in the overseas market. In China, there are year - end capital pressure and tax settlement issues, and downstream purchasing willingness is extremely weak. The current high copper price inhibits the real economy, and the widening spot discount indicates weak demand. The market is in a special stage of "low liquidity + high sensitivity", and Shanghai copper will continue to oscillate at a high level before the holiday. Short - term attention should be paid to the support at the 95,000 - yuan mark of Shanghai copper [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday, with a short - term upward outlook. The main driving forces are the implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut in early December, the rise in market risk appetite and liquidity, and the rebound in short - term liquidity after the implementation of the yen's interest rate hike on December 19. Macro - level easing promotes the general rise of assets, pushing gold prices to break through upwards. [1][3] - Copper is expected to be strong in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday, with a long - term upward outlook. The macro - level atmosphere has warmed up after the implementation of the yen's interest rate hike, the US dollar has remained weak, and non - ferrous metals have generally risen. Although high copper prices suppress consumption in the industrial level, short - term macro factors drive copper prices up with strong upward momentum. [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, gold prices rose strongly. New York gold and London gold successively broke through the $4500 mark, and Shanghai gold broke through the 1000 - yuan mark. [3] - **Driving Factors**: In the short - term, the main driving force for the upward movement of gold prices comes from the monetary policies of the US and Japanese central banks. Since the end of October, Sino - US relations have eased, and gold prices have been under pressure and maintained high - level oscillations. Now, macro - level easing has promoted the general rise of assets, pushing gold prices to break through upwards. [3] - **Technical Analysis**: If there is a pull - back, attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average. [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: After the Asian session yesterday, copper prices continued to strengthen. LME copper broke through the $12,000 mark, and Shanghai copper opened higher at night, breaking through the 95,000 - yuan mark and approaching the 96,000 - yuan mark before pulling back. [4] - **Driving Factors**: At the macro - level, after the implementation of the yen's interest rate hike, the macro - atmosphere has warmed up, the US dollar has remained weak, and non - ferrous metals have generally risen. At the industrial level, high copper prices suppress consumption, the basis and monthly spreads continue to weaken, and the futures price shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. [4] - **Technical Analysis**: If there is a pull - back, attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average. [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term and show a short - term upward trend due to the impact of the yen's interest rate hike and the recovery of market liquidity [1][3] - Copper is expected to have a long - term upward trend, driven by macro - level factors such as the warming macro - environment after the yen's interest rate hike, along with mine - end production cuts [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Gold - **Short - term view**: Strong [1] - **Medium - term view**: Oscillating [1] - **Intraday view**: Oscillating and tending to be strong [1] - **Reference view**: Bullish in the short - term [1][3] - **Core logic**: After the yen's interest rate hike, short - term market liquidity has recovered. Since the China - US summit in Busan at the end of October, market risk appetite has continuously increased, and gold prices have been in a high - level oscillation. Recently, gold prices have broken through upwards [1][3] - **Price performance**: New York gold has reached above $4400 and is approaching $4500, and Shanghai gold has exceeded the 1000 - yuan mark and broken through the high at the end of October [3] 3.2 Copper - **Short - term view**: Strong [1] - **Medium - term view**: Strong [1] - **Intraday view**: Strong [1] - **Reference view**: Bullish in the long - term [1][4] - **Core logic**: At the macro level, the macro - environment has improved after the yen's interest rate hike, leading to a general rise in non - ferrous metals. At the industrial level, high copper prices have suppressed consumption, with the basis and monthly spreads continuously weakening, and the futures price pattern showing near - term weakness and long - term strength. Short - term macro factors have pushed up copper prices, with high capital attention [4] - **Price performance**: Shanghai copper has shown a strong oscillation, with the position volume continuously increasing. At night, it slightly declined from the high, and the position volume slightly decreased. LME copper faces strong resistance at the $12,000 mark [4]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and copper, along with the core logics for these views. Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term and copper is expected to be strong in the long - term [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trends**: Last week, the gold price fluctuated upwards. Since the China - US summit in Busan at the end of October, the gold price has been in a high - level oscillation state and is approaching the high at the end of October [3]. - **Market Conditions**: The US dollar index bottomed out and rebounded, which is negative for gold. However, the implementation of the yen interest rate hike led to an increase in market liquidity, which is positive for gold. The New York gold repeatedly failed to break through around $4380, and the Shanghai gold faced significant technical pressure at the 980 - yuan level [3]. - **Viewpoints**: The short - term view is strong, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and strong [1][3]. Copper - **Price Trends**: Last week, the copper price first declined and then rose, and the trading volume increased as the price rose [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The implementation of the yen interest rate hike improved the macro - environment, leading to a general rise in non - ferrous metals. High copper prices restricted consumption, causing the basis and calendar spread to continuously weaken, and the futures price showed a pattern where the near - term contract was weaker than the long - term contract. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at $0/ton and $0/lb [4]. - **Viewpoints**: The long - term view is strong, the medium - term view is strong, and the intraday view is strong [1][4].