一方面，1月最后一周，美股披露财报的企业数量较多。另一方面，出口对企业盈利的影响越来越大， 我们补充美国上市公司的盈利数据以完善对出口景气的观察。整体而言，美股盈利增速依然较高，但结 构分化较大。四季度，已披露财报的标普500成分股当季利润增速为10.8%，低于三季度的24.1%。按照 WIND的行业分类，11个一级行业中，有7个利润增速为负。非金融行业中，仅三个利润增速为正，包 括信息技术、工业、公用事业。 来源：一瑜中的 报告摘要 前言：本周周报关注美国四季报盈利情况 整体情况：利润增速有所下滑 截止至2月1日，美国标普500成分股中有180个个股披露了四季报（注：美股财年不统一，此处按日历时 间标记，指业绩对应日期主要在2025年四季度的财报）。这180只个股对应市值占标普500市值一半左 右。 从季度利润增速来看，四季度，美股样本企业增速为10.8%，低于2025年三季度的24.1%，但参考历史 增速来看，依然处于偏高增速水平。 分行业：分化较大，三个方向景气较高 分行业来看，按照wind的行业分类，2025年四季度，11个行业中有7个行业利润增速为负。仅信息技 术、金融、工业、公用事业四个行业利润增 ...

Overall Situation - The profit growth rate of S&P 500 companies has declined, with a reported growth of 10.8% for Q4 2025, down from 24.1% in Q3 2025, although it remains at a relatively high level historically [3][12]. Industry Analysis - There is significant divergence in profit growth across industries, with 7 out of 11 sectors reporting negative growth. Only the information technology, financial, industrial, and utility sectors showed positive growth, with information technology contributing 12.6% to the overall profit growth of sample companies at a rate of 44.5% [4][15]. Information Technology - In the information technology sector, 25 companies reported earnings, with 21 showing positive profit growth. Notably, 18 companies had growth rates exceeding 10%, with standout performers including SanDisk at 672%, Western Digital at 210%, Micron Technology at 180.2%, Broadcom at 97%, and Oracle at 94.7% [5][18]. Utilities - The utility sector performed well, with two companies reporting a combined profit growth of 251.1%. This performance is likely linked to rising electricity prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for electricity services showing a year-on-year increase of 6.7% in December 2025 [6][22]. Industrial - The industrial sector saw a profit growth rate of 45.9%, driven largely by military production. Key companies included Boeing (returning to profitability), Lockheed Martin with a growth of 155%, Northrop Grumman at 66.7%, and General Electric Aerospace at 34.9%. The production index for aerospace and other transportation equipment has risen significantly, averaging a year-on-year growth of 20.9% over the last four months [7][24].

Group 1 - The overall market trends for the past week aligned with previous expectations, with the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and crude oil showing rebounds, while US stocks experienced a slight decline [2][25] - Key US economic indicators showed resilience, including initial jobless claims dropping to 218,000, below the expected 233,000, and PCE inflation aligning with forecasts [3][4] - The Citigroup US Economic Surprise Index rebounded significantly, indicating a strong economic backdrop, although short-term interest rates lag behind the improving fundamentals [5][10] Group 2 - Upcoming focus for the market includes the US labor market, with significant data releases such as ISM Manufacturing PMI and non-farm payrolls expected to show notable rebounds compared to September [7][10] - The US dollar and interest rates are expected to continue their upward trend, with short-term rates rebounding from 2.9% to 3.17% [11][10] - The Federal Reserve's dot plot suggests potential rate cuts in 2025, with a reasonable range for US interest rates projected between 3.25% and 3.5% [13][15] Group 3 - US stock markets faced selling pressure from hedge funds, attributed to profit-taking and quarterly rebalancing, but this pressure is expected to ease as October approaches [20][21] - The upcoming earnings season is crucial, with market expectations for earnings growth around 6%, lower than the previous quarter's 11% growth, indicating a potential for positive surprises [24][23] - The current market valuation has increased, with forward P/E ratios rising from 21 to 23, suggesting that further upward movement in stock prices will require earnings growth to support valuations [23][25]

Core Insights - The earnings engine of the S&P 500 index is showing sustained strong momentum, reflecting the robust profitability of U.S. companies during the current earnings season, which may alleviate concerns about the overheated nature of the stock market [1] Earnings Performance - Approximately one-third of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with about 83% exceeding analyst expectations, potentially marking the highest level since Q2 2021 [3] - The S&P 500 index has rebounded 28% since hitting a low on April 8, with multiple new historical highs reached in recent weeks, indicating a broad-based market rally rather than being driven by a few large-cap stocks [3] Market Sentiment - The strong earnings performance has helped dispel some investors' concerns about a market bubble, leading to a more optimistic outlook for future market trends [4] - The improvement in market sentiment is closely linked to the easing of concerns regarding tariff impacts, which had previously made investors cautious about corporate profitability [3] Sector Performance - Different sectors have shown varying earnings results, but overall, key sectors such as technology, consumer, and industrials have reported satisfactory results, contributing significantly to the index's rise [4] - Some previously bearish sectors have also seen stock price rebounds due to improved profitability, adding to the market's upward momentum [4]