当时美股反弹，仅仅说明市场的底部与估值的底部相互脱节，结束了市场的恐慌性动荡。 第一，经过了恐慌性的下跌，美股当中泡沫已经充分挤出，距离真实估值较为接近。 第二，美联储大量的刺激计划，促进了美股反弹。 美联储在美股下跌之后，迅速将利率水平降低为0，并且开启了7000亿美元的量化宽松，无限量的量化 宽松都帮助美股筑底。虽然宽松的货币政策在疫情的冲击面前对经济几乎没有帮助，但这些货币流动性 的释放显然有助于股市的反弹。 资本市场的底部与估值底部并不一定完全同步，因此美国股市在强烈的刺激计划之下，出现反弹是正常 的，但由于经济未来仍然有下行空间，美股未来还有持续动荡的风险。 美股一度达到了18,000点以下，按照此前美股达到高点时的测算，美国股市中泡沫大约存在百分之35以 上，而经过了一段时间的迅速下跌，也就是说泡沫与高估基本挤出的差不多了，这与美股的真实价值相 对接近，所以在经济基本面没有遭受严重冲击之前，美股非常可能出现反弹。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，受贸易战风险加剧、美国联邦政府停摆持续等因素影响，市场情绪迅速恶化，美股 遭遇"黑色星期五"。数据显示，标普500指数、纳斯达克综合指数分别收跌2.71%、3.56%，均创4月以 来最大单日跌幅;道琼斯工业平均指数收跌1.9%。 市场恐慌情绪同步升温。被视为"华尔街恐慌指标"的芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)周五一度飙升 至22上方，结束了过去四个月的平稳走势。分析人士指出，随着自动化交易系统触发止损、机构资金平 仓离场，市场波动进一步被放大。从市场结构来看，这种"技术性下跌"往往伴随着交易量激增和恐慌性 抛售，短期内或将维持高波动状态。 在关税风险再次浮现后，投资者对创纪录的美股上涨行情即将终结的担忧在周五急剧升温。Cetera Investment Management首席投资官Gene Goldman表示："在当前高估值水平下，这次抛售反映出市场紧 张情绪。""市场一切都定价于'完美'预期之中，因此任何不确定性都会放大投资者焦虑，这无疑加剧了 对经济增长的担忧。" 值得一提的是，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙本周就曾警告称，美股在未来6个至24个月出现严重下跌 的风险远高于市场所反 ...

该行认为目前正进入一个时代，领先科技股的命运愈来愈依赖于其背后的实体基础设施。暴增的电力需 求无法仅靠应用程序或软件解决，必须投入真正资源于发电与配电领域，这将为能源、资源，甚至房地 产及运输等行业带来更广阔的增长与回报前景。在科技行业内部，回报来源亦将进一步分化。2020年代 的领先科技巨头很可能继续主导各自领域，但快速的创新——尤其是围绕机器学习及人工智能的领域， 将催生新一波科技明星企业，借助当前的资本支出热潮推出新产品与服务。 格隆汇10月9日｜高盛发表环球股市策略报告表示，目前环球市场行为和定价确实出现了一些与过去泡 沫相似的迹象，同时也观察到几个关键差异：首先，科技板块至今的上涨主要由基本面增长所驱动，而 非对未来增长的非理性投机；其次，表现最强劲的领先企业拥有异常稳健的资产负债表；第三，人工智 能领域迄今仍由少数现有巨头主导，而多数泡沫往往出现在竞争激烈、投资者及新进入者蜂拥而至的阶 段。 对于美股大科技公司的估值是否合理？该行指由于无法确切知道相关公司最终将实现的盈利与回报，这 个问题显然难以回答，但却是当前多数投资者正在面对的课题。该行从以下几个角度分析：1)与过去泡 沫时期的估值比较，2) ...

盘前市场动向 | 3.截至发稿，WTI原油涨1.72%，报62.79美元/桶。布伦特原油涨1.50%，报66.43美元/桶。 | | --- | | ■ WTI原油 | 2025年11月 | 62.79 | 62.81 | 62.08 | +1.06 | +1.72% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 兴 伦敦布伦特原油 | 2025年12月 | 66.43 | 66.47 | 65.72 | +0.98 | +1.50% | 市场消息 美欧关税生变?传欧盟官员认为美国新贸易要求太苛刻，或削弱此前协议。欧盟官员认为，美国提出的新要求以及采取的其他措施， 有可能破坏近期达成的一项协议。该协议曾使欧盟与美国避免了一场贸易战。据知情人士透露，本月早些时候，美国总统特朗普政府 向欧盟提交了一份关于实施"互惠、公平和平衡"贸易原则的新提案。一些人士表示，欧盟官员认为这些要求过于苛刻，而所需做出的 让步相当大。这些人士并未透露美国的具体要求细节，因为成员国将于周三听取有关此次讨论的汇报。 1.10月8日(周三)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货 ...

第三，统计数据可信度危机动摇美联储货币政策决策根基。就业数据作为美联储货币政策的核心依据，其准确性 正面临前所未有的挑战。劳工部将2024年4月至2025年3月美国新增就业人数大幅下修91.1万，意味着此前统计的 就业岗位中有51%实际并不存在，这一数据偏差已超出技术误差范畴。 深层次问题包括：调查回复率持续下降已成为全社会现象，政府统计机构缺乏充足资源提升数据质量；新冠疫情 后经济结构深刻变化，使传统的企业"出生—死亡模型"预测失准；当月数据可靠性显著下降，政策制定被迫依赖 滞后2月-3个月的修正数据。这种数据不确定性正在成为政策制定的新常态，如果统计偏差频繁出现，将严重影响 美联储决策的科学性和公众信任度。 第四，政治任命冲击美联储独立性，制度根基面临重大考验。美国总统特朗普任命米兰出任美联储理事，开创了 在任白宫职员同时担任美联储理事的先河，这一举措的象征意义远超其实际影响，标志着1951年《财政部-美联储 协议》确立的央行人事独立于行政体系的传统面临历史性冲击。更值得关注的是，米兰在议息会议中明确反对降 息25个基点、主张降息50个基点的表态，明显迎合了特朗普的政策偏好。 展望未来，诸多因素相互交织， ...

Group 1 - Powell's warning indicates that U.S. stock valuations are currently too high, which is a rare and significant statement from the Federal Reserve Chairman [4][5] - Historical context shows that similar warnings have often preceded significant market downturns, such as the 2000 internet bubble burst [7][9] - The warning serves as a "policy preventive measure," suggesting that subsequent interest rate hikes, rather than the warning itself, typically trigger market volatility [7][9] Group 2 - Powell's statement reflects a broader policy consideration, emphasizing the need to avoid excessive expectations of monetary easing amidst ongoing inflation concerns [9][12] - The relationship between Powell and Trump highlights a divergence in economic policy priorities, with Powell focusing on inflation control while Trump emphasizes economic growth [11][12] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial, as it operates based on economic data rather than political pressures, contrasting with the approach of other central banks [16][18] Group 3 - Powell's warning underscores the ongoing tension between the Federal Reserve and the White House, reinforcing the Fed's commitment to its core responsibilities [18] - The potential for market volatility exists in the short term, but the long-term focus on inflation stability and economic fundamentals is beneficial for investors [18]

Core Viewpoint - Evercore ISI predicts a 25% chance that the S&P 500 index could rise to 9,000 points next year, amid concerns of an expanding stock market bubble [1] Group 1: Market Predictions - The S&P 500 index is forecasted to reach 7,750 points by the end of 2026, potentially driven by applications of artificial intelligence [1] - The possibility of a bubble forming has increased to 25% following the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut this year [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - A survey indicated that 67% of respondents believe the stock market bubble is beginning to expand, with a growing "fear of missing out" among investors [1] - Clients are increasingly inquiring about what to buy in a rapidly rising market [1] Group 3: Market Behavior and Historical Context - Despite the potential for a bubble, the market is not yet exhibiting signs of extreme enthusiasm, with bullish sentiment remaining relatively subdued [1] - Historical reference is made to the late 1990s, where the Nasdaq 100 index rose 500% after Alan Greenspan's remarks on "irrational exuberance" before peaking in early 2000 [1] Group 4: Short-term Outlook - The company expresses caution regarding potential short-term market weakness, anticipating a possible pullback before the typically strong months of November and December [1]

硬·AI 作者 | 董 静 编辑 | 硬 AI 在AI浪潮席卷全球的当下，那些曾被忽视的传统硬件公司，正以惊人的涨幅成为美股市场最闪耀的明星， 但这究竟是AI基础设施建设的"外溢效应"的真实体现，还是泡沫破灭前的最后狂欢？ 在AI热潮推动下，美股市场最亮眼的明星并非前沿科技公司，而是一批传统技术企业。 希捷科技今年飙升 156%成为标普500指数最佳表现股票，竞争对手西部数据以137%涨幅排名第三，美光科技则凭借93%涨 幅位列第五。 据报道，这些成立于Facebook创始人Mark Zuckerberg和OpenAI首席执行官Sam Altman出生前的"无 聊"公司，正受益于AI基础设施建设的巨额投资。大型科技公司每年在半导体、网络设备和数据中心电力 供应方面投入数百亿美元，为训练大语言模型和运行AI工作负载提供支撑。 然而，华尔街对这一现象存在分歧。 多头认为这展现了AI计算需求对广泛业务领域的带动效应，空头则警 告这是股市泡沫的最新迹象 。Jonestrading首席市场策略师Michael O'Rourke表示： 今年，传统硬件公司股价飙升，希捷科技涨156%领涨标普500，西部数据涨137%排第三 ...

Core Viewpoint - Traditional hardware companies have seen significant stock price increases in 2023, driven by massive investments in AI infrastructure from large tech firms, raising questions about whether this reflects genuine demand or a market bubble [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Seagate Technology's stock surged by 156%, making it the best-performing stock in the S&P 500, while Western Digital and Micron Technology saw increases of 137% and 93%, respectively [1][3]. - These companies, often overlooked, are now benefiting from the AI infrastructure investments that large tech companies are making, amounting to hundreds of billions annually [3][4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - There is a divide on Wall Street regarding this trend; bulls see it as a sign of AI's broad impact on various sectors, while bears warn it may indicate a stock market bubble [3][6]. - Analysts have noted that the rapid price increases of these stocks exceed expectations, with Seagate trading over 20% above its average target price [6][7]. Group 3: Valuation and Investment Outlook - Despite the stock price surges, the valuations of Seagate, Western Digital, and Micron remain relatively reasonable, with price-to-earnings ratios around 10 times, compared to the S&P 500's expected ratio of 23 times [4][5]. - Benchmark Co. analyst Mark Miller raised Seagate's target price to $250, indicating a potential upside of over 13% from its recent closing price [5]. Group 4: Broader Market Trends - The AI boom is also positively impacting other traditional sectors, with companies like Vistra Corp and Broadcom seeing substantial stock price increases [8]. - Oracle's stock surged by 36% after a strong earnings report, highlighting the growing demand for cloud computing services [9].

Group 1 - The core sentiment in the market is driven by optimism surrounding a more accommodative monetary policy and the AI boom, leading to a significant rise in U.S. stocks, breaking the historical trend of weak performance in September [1] - Bank of America strategists suggest that the "Magnificent Seven" stocks have further upside potential, with historical data indicating an average increase of 244% during past market bubbles from low to peak [1][2] - Current valuations of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 39, suggest that they are still within a bubble phase, as past bubbles typically ended at a P/E of 58 [2] Group 2 - Jeff Krumpelman from Mariner Wealth Advisors believes that the productivity gains driven by AI can support higher valuation levels, indicating that the market is in the early stages of AI development [2] - The S&P 500's expected P/E ratio is around 23, which, while above historical averages, is justified by the current market composition dominated by tech and communication services [2] - Concerns about market overheating are raised, with warnings that a true "melt-up" could lead to instability if driven by speculative behavior rather than fundamentals [2][3] Group 3 - Analysts from major financial institutions like Wells Fargo, Barclays, and Deutsche Bank have recently raised their S&P 500 target levels, citing earnings resilience and AI investment cycles as key drivers for the next market uptrend [3] - Despite the optimism, risks remain, including high valuations and reduced market breadth, which could lead to a more volatile short-term outlook [3] - Bill Smead from Smead Capital Management compares the current AI-driven enthusiasm to past market bubbles, predicting a potential collapse that could leave many investors disappointed [4]