（来源：市场星报） 上周，A股先跌两天、后涨三天，沪指三连阳盘中重回3900点，周微涨0.03%，报收3890.45点；深证成 指周下跌0.89%，报收13140.21点；创业板指周下跌2.26%，报收3122.24点。以指数的日线级别审视， 市场探底回升，即将或已经回到"选择方向"的时刻。指数上方不远处是近期压力位，而下方又是近期两 度验证的支撑位。 上周A股走出"先抑后扬"行情，上证最终收于3890.45点，创业板与科创板也集体回暖。表面看是普涨， 实则暗流涌动：成交量呈现W型波动，资金在科技与消费间反复切换。面对本周走势，机构观点分歧严 重，这背后真正值得警惕的不是预测本身，而是市场对持续性动能的集体怀疑。 值得注意的是，当前市场结构性特征愈发明显。在整体调整格局未改的背景下，局部性机会依然存在， 消费板块的持续走强便是政策利好驱动下的结构性行情体现，而板块内部呈现的高低切走势，也反映出 资金在不确定性中寻求避险的心态。但这类结构性反弹往往持续性有限，且容易受市场情绪和资金流向 影响出现反复，难以带动指数走出反转行情。 真正的答案，不在多空之间，而在变局之中。A股不会简单选择方向，而将经历一次压力测试： ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 12 月 17 日 A 股短期调整可能是回踩，接下来关键是"等待与准备" 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 日韩股市下跌，港股市场同步走弱，外围市场的负面情绪传导。周二 A 股市 场继续下跌。盘面上看，消费股活跃，房地产板块盘中异动拉升，一度带动指数 小幅回升，但市场整体做多情绪疲软，反弹力度有限，最终以弱势整理收尾。 市场弱势震荡下行是内外部因素共振的结果：一是，外围科技股普跌的传导 效应，A 股相关板块同步承压；二是日本央行加息预期持续升温；三是，市场内 部结构性矛盾凸显，缺乏明确且持续的领涨主线，热点轮动频繁且持续性不足， 赚钱效应不足；四是，年底临近，机构为锁定收益可能出现阶段性调仓，可能会 导致市场波动；五是，增量资金进场意愿不足，周二两市成交额维持在 1.7 万亿 元左右的阶段低位，场外资金仍处于观望状态，未形成有效进场动能；六是，临 近年底，流动性可能偏紧。商业银行年末考核带来的季节性收紧压力；七是，国 内经济处于修复进程中，但基础尚需巩固，总需求不足等问题依然存在，企业盈 利能力的普遍性、持续性改善信号仍需进一步确认。 不过 ...

12月10日，指数走势分化，逾2800股飘绿，全天成交1.8万亿，较昨日缩量1254.5亿。截至收盘，上证指 数跌0.23%，深证成指涨0.29%，创业板指跌0.02%。 分析人士认为，市场调整可能有两方面的原因： 全球流动性。2025年12月议息会议前夕，10年期日本国债收益率突破1.96%。近期，日本央行行长明确 指出，在将政策利率提升至0.75%之后，央行将进一步阐述未来的加息路径，同时警告政策调整过晚可 能引发高通胀风险。这一表态强烈暗示12月或将加息，短期日元和日债收益率快速上行。其鹰派信号引 发市场波动。 政策预期扰动。11月CPI表现强劲，同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月份以来 最高。不过，同比涨幅扩大主要是食品价格由降转涨拉动。扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨 1.2%，涨幅连续3个月保持在1%以上。CPI环比下降0.1%，主要受服务价格季节性下降影响。 盘面上，零售板块延续强势，东百集团4连板，永辉超市、汇嘉时代涨停，中百集团等涨幅靠前；海南 自贸概念震荡反弹，海南瑞泽、罗牛山涨停，海汽集团等跟涨；影视院线板块走高，博纳影业涨停三连 板，中国电影等纷纷走 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 == 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/12/3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | | DR001 | 1.30 | -0.87 | DR007 | 1.44 | -1.71 | | स्ट | GC001 | 1.41 | -5.50 | GC007 | 1.49 | -0.50 | | F | SHBOR 3M | 1.58 | 0.00 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 市 | 1年期国债 | 1.36 | 1.40 | 5年期国债 | 1.56 | 0.20 | | 场 | 10年期国债 | 1.83 | 0.30 | 10年期美债 | 4.10 | 0.00 | | 与 | | | 热评:央行昨日开展了1563亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率1. ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective pullback, with total market turnover exceeding 1.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of 194.5 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The major indices closed lower: the CSI A500 index fell by 1.1%, the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.8%, the ChiNext index dropped by 2.0%, and the STAR Market 50 index declined by 1.0% [1] Sector Performance - Sectors that saw gains included: Fujian, banking, ice and snow industry, power grid equipment, film and television, and paper manufacturing [1] - Sectors that experienced declines included: non-ferrous metals, PEEK materials, weight loss drugs, wind power equipment, robotics, and battery sectors [1] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market also faced adjustments, with significant declines in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and robotics [1]

Market Overview - On October 30, the A-share market experienced a low opening followed by a brief rise, but ultimately closed lower, indicating increasing panic among investors [2] - The number of stocks that rose was 1,242, while 4,100 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 24,643 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 1,736 billion yuan compared to previous days [2] - The market saw a net outflow of funds amounting to 1,345 billion yuan, despite a trading volume returning to the previous "normal" level of around 25,000 billion yuan [2] Sector Performance - The rare earth and energy metal sectors performed well, while previously strong sectors like storage chips and optical modules (CPO) saw significant declines, leading to a broader downturn in technology stocks [2] - The market's "连板" (continuous rise) situation was weak, with most stocks showing poor performance, particularly small-cap stocks with poor earnings [2] Investor Sentiment - The market's adjustment is viewed as a normal correction within an overall upward trend, primarily driven by profit-taking [3][4] - Individual investors expressed mixed feelings, with some experiencing significant losses while others reported gains from stocks like Tianqi Lithium and Industrial Fulian [3] Economic Context - The decline of the Shanghai Composite Index below 4,000 points is considered a normal correction, with the market's liquidity remaining robust and domestic policies stable [4] - Recent diplomatic engagements, such as the meeting between the Chinese and U.S. presidents, are seen as beneficial for stabilizing economic relations and the global political landscape [4] Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to analyze market rotation styles and identify sectors worth investing in, as many companies are showing improved profitability [5] - For instance, New Yisheng reported a revenue of 16.5 billion yuan for Q3, a year-on-year increase of 221%, and a net profit of 6.327 billion yuan, up 284.37% [5] Conclusion - Patience, calmness, and thorough analysis are essential for investors to find wealth-building opportunities in the A-share market [6]

Group 1 - A-shares are currently in a short-term adjustment phase, but the long-term upward trend since last year remains intact, with potential buying opportunities if the market overcorrects [1][2] - The adjustment in the A-share market is nearing its end, with a recommendation to gradually invest in sectors with offensive attributes, particularly in technology and advanced manufacturing [1][2] - The current market adjustment reflects a shift in capital between high and low sectors, with net inflows indicating sufficient micro liquidity [2][3] Group 2 - The core driving force of the current market is the positive signals from domestic micro and macro levels, including policy support and increased capital market participation [3][4] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with strong earnings expectations, such as new consumption, chemicals, and technology, as these sectors show low valuations and strong performance [3][4] - The upcoming third-quarter reports are expected to provide more allocation clues for investors, particularly in sectors with strong policy focus and earnings certainty [5][6] Group 3 - The technology sector remains a key focus, with expectations of continued growth driven by earnings and valuation improvements [6][7] - Short-term strategies may include considering dividend stocks in sectors like coal, insurance, and banking, although these are seen as limited in terms of long-term performance [7][8] - The overall market trend is still upward, supported by the growth of overseas income and profits from Chinese companies [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market adjustment is attributed to high valuations of U.S. financial assets relative to GDP, weakening service sector, and emerging contradictions in technology development, indicating that the true bull market for Chinese assets has not yet begun [1][2][5]. Market Adjustment Insights - The adjustment in the A-share market is not primarily driven by trade relations but rather by deeper economic factors, including high U.S. financial asset valuations and a weakening service sector [2]. - Recent communications between U.S. Treasury Secretary and Chinese officials, along with easing concerns over U.S. regional bank bad debts, have led to a short-term market rebound, reducing the likelihood of a sharp decline [2]. Domestic Economic Indicators - Financial data shows a seasonal increase in new corporate medium-to-long-term loans and an above-seasonal growth in new household loans, indicating a potential recovery in terminal demand that could benefit midstream manufacturing and downstream profits [3]. - The year-on-year growth rate of PPI has rebounded, particularly in upstream industries, suggesting a stabilization in prices due to ongoing anti-involution efforts [3]. - China's reliance on U.S. trade has decreased, with a notable recovery in overall export growth despite low year-on-year growth in exports to the U.S. [3]. Long-term Asset Considerations - Factors supporting gold's strength include expectations of interest rate cuts, geopolitical risks leading to a weaker dollar, and persistent government deficits abroad [4]. - The rapid increase in gold prices since late August has coincided with volatility in equity markets, indicating a shift in asset allocation preferences among investors [4]. Structural Changes in Investment - The high valuations of U.S. financial assets and weakening service sector are exerting pressure on global technology advancements, with adjustments in Chinese assets being a normal part of the transition process [5][6]. - Recommended investment focus includes short-term attention on domestic industries with recovering sentiment, such as food and beverage, aviation, and coal [6]. - Mid-term investment should prioritize physical assets, including upstream resources (copper, aluminum, oil, gold) and capital goods (engineering machinery, power grid equipment) [6].

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector showed resilience amidst a broader market decline, with Agricultural Bank of China reaching a new historical high in its stock price [3][8]. Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant adjustment on October 17, with major indices declining. The ChiNext Index and the STAR Market 50 Index saw declines exceeding 2% [5]. - The Shanghai Composite Index fell below the 3900-point mark, closing down 1% at 3877.2 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.99% to 12825.85 points [5]. - Over 4100 stocks in the market experienced declines, with the power equipment sector leading the downturn, falling over 3% [5][6]. Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector was one of the few that performed well, with an overall increase of nearly 1% during the morning session. Qingdao Bank and Xiamen Bank saw their stock prices rise over 2% [8]. - Agricultural Bank of China reached a peak price of 7.69 CNY per share, marking a new historical high, and closed at 7.59 CNY per share, up 1.34% [8]. New Stock Listing - A new stock, Dao Sheng Tian He, was listed on the A-share market, experiencing a surge of over 400% in its price during the morning session [12]. - Dao Sheng Tian He focuses on the research, production, and sales of new materials, particularly in the fields of wind power, new energy vehicles, and energy storage [14].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3865.23 points, down 0.62%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.54% to 12895.11 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped nearly 4% to 2955.98 points, indicating a broad market decline with over 3500 stocks in the red [1] - The technology sector experienced significant adjustments, particularly in semiconductor, CPO, and consumer electronics, while undervalued sectors like banking, insurance, and liquor saw gains, suggesting a strategic shift in capital allocation [1][2] Market Dynamics - The recent market downturn appears to be a result of active repositioning by major players rather than mere panic selling, as funds are moving from high-flying tech stocks to lower-valued blue-chip stocks, indicative of a "switching period" in the market [2] - Despite the initial market volatility caused by trade and tariff concerns, recent data shows stable export growth and no significant impact on industrial production or infrastructure investment, suggesting that the market is digesting these disturbances [2] Technical Analysis - The decline in the ChiNext Index is largely attributed to previous high valuation pressures, with 2950 and 2900 points identified as key support levels for potential accumulation of positions by institutions [3] - A potential rebound is anticipated if the index shows signs of stabilization or slight recovery in upcoming trading sessions, as historical patterns indicate that significant volume declines often precede rapid recoveries [3] Future Outlook - Wednesday is expected to be a critical turning point for market sentiment, with strong performance anticipated in financial and heavyweight sectors, supported by continued net inflows [5] - The technology sector, after three days of adjustment, may see some leading companies entering a technically oversold zone, creating short-term rebound opportunities [5] - Overall market activity remains robust, with trading volume reaching approximately 1.4 trillion yuan, indicating ongoing internal rotation of funds rather than a complete withdrawal from the market [5] Strategic Implications - The current market decline is viewed as a temporary consolidation rather than a trend reversal, with major players using this adjustment period to accumulate positions for the next upward movement [6] - Investors are advised to maintain composure and not be swayed by short-term fluctuations, as the medium to long-term trend remains intact, with expectations of increased market activity as policy uncertainties diminish and regulatory stability improves [6]