一、意外宣布大幅降息！英国央行宣布降息25个基点。这是英国央行本轮降息周期的第5次降息！A股这几天也开始大涨，市场成交量1.74万亿，相对于上一 个交易日放量1162亿。昨天美股高开低开，我们这边平开承接！ 沪指盘中再创年内新高，其他指数今天有回调，两市下跌家数超过2800家，进入8月指数一改上周调整之势强势拉升，市场的题材还是比较丰富的，可以说 是百花齐放，虽然热点题材轮动的还是比较快，市场热点还是不缺的。本周流动性依然保持充沛，日均仍保持在1.7万亿左右。 二、A股高位跳水即将开始？下周或将会迎来大级别调整？ 如果A股市场指数这里不出现调整，只能说技术上未来出现单边拉升的概率在提高，看看到时候会不会出现加速向上突破3800点。 其实我最希望看到的是，这里如果要突破，在很短的时间直接攻破3800点，并且冲向4000点，不能让空头有机可趁，那样就彻底的成为多头的天下了。 大盘在中字头、钢铁、工程机械等蓝筹股拉升的带动下，两市大盘出现探底回升，早盘沪市最低回踩3625点附近，随后电力、中石油等蓝筹股拉升，带动大 盘开始反弹，大盘虽然没有大跌，但两市个股跌多涨少。 技术上，大盘连续上行以后，今天出现回调，主要还是 ...

分析师：柏逸凡 登记编号：S0890524100001 分析师：程秉哲 登记编号：S0890522110001 投资要点 本报告统计时间为2025.07.28-2025.08.01。 沪指短期或维持震荡格局：当前处于增量政策真空期，政治局会议删除"降准降息"表述，预示新增刺激政策概率降低，重 心转向现有措施落地。叠加海外扰动（中美关税豁免期虽大概率延期但仍存变数），A股赚钱效应或将有所下降。操作上 宜多看少动，配置聚焦两大方向：1）防御压舱石：银行、非银等低波板块发挥指数稳定器功能。2)关注稀土（中美博 弈、涨价）的布局机会以及其他主题轮动的低位布局机会。 权益市场， 上周，市场风格方面，小盘风格占优，价值成长偏向均衡；市场风格波动方面，大小盘风格波动及价值成长 风格波动上升。市场结构方面，上周，行业指数超额收益离散度略有上升，行业轮动速度维持震荡，成分股上涨比例大幅 下行；交易集中度方面，前100个股成交额占比及前5行业成交额占比均维持在上期水平。市场活跃度方面，上周，市场波 动率快速上升，市场换手率继续上行。 商品市场方面， 上周，各板块趋势强度均略有下降；基差动量方面，贵金属板块基差动量略有上行，其余板 ...

截至2025年8月7日 13:16，中证500质量成长指数(930939)下跌0.32%。成分股方面涨跌互现，杰瑞股份(002353)10cm涨停，韵达股份(002120)上涨9.23%，乖 宝宠物(301498)上涨5.21%；华海药业(600521)领跌，康弘药业(002773)、华工科技(000988)跟跌。500质量成长ETF(560500)下修调整，最新报价1.04元。 中信建投策略指出，上周A股出现调整，是连涨之后市场止盈压力和预期变化的共振。1）政治局会议和PMI数据，导致市场对增量政策和顺周期的预期降 温；2）美联储表态和非农数据波动，导致市场对降息节奏不确定性的预期升温；3）美国与盟友达成经贸协议，导致市场对中美关系改善的预期降温。但 是，全球货币宽松和A股资金面充裕的环境不变，投资者对市场预期不变，新赛道的结构性景气不变。 该机构认为，当前市场情绪从亢奋状态有所降温，预计将阶段性震荡整固，也有利于A股行情行稳致远。 值得注意的是，Wind数据显示，该基金跟踪的中证500质量成长指数估值处于历史低位，最新市净率PB为1.96倍，低于指数近3年80.19%以上的时间，估值 性价比突出。 500 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The A-share market is currently facing fundamental pressures, with May export growth unexpectedly declining, and the pace of policy implementation likely slowing down. It is expected that fundamental pressures may ease around mid to late July [1][2] - Structural pressures exist in the A-share mid-year report performance, particularly for high-earning expectations in new consumer sectors and thematic stocks, which may face valuation adjustment risks [1][3] - Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the Iran nuclear conflict, are suppressing market sentiment and increasing uncertainty [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Performance**: The A-share market is expected to continue its weak performance in the short term, with a potential for stabilization only by mid to late July if positive fundamental and policy factors emerge [2][3] - **Key Factors for Weakness**: 1. **Fundamental Pressure**: Export growth is anticipated to continue declining from June to August, increasing economic growth pressure [3] 2. **Mid-Year Report Performance**: While overall performance is stable, certain sectors may face significant structural pressures [3] 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to further suppress market sentiment [4] Important Policies and Measures - Recent policies from the Lujiazui Forum have positively impacted market sentiment, including measures from the central bank related to foreign exchange and the introduction of more favorable conditions for technology innovation companies to list [6] - The introduction of new listing standards for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market is expected to facilitate the entry of more innovative companies into the capital market, although the immediate impact on the market's weak state is limited [8] Macro Environment Impact - The current macro environment is characterized by weak economic recovery and declining exports, which historically correlates with weak A-share performance [7][10] - The liquidity environment is neutral to slightly positive, but potential dollar rebounds and geopolitical tensions could impact global liquidity negatively [9] Industry Allocation Recommendations - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on defensive sectors and high-potential technology sub-sectors, such as artificial intelligence and robotics, as well as undervalued blue-chip stocks in banking, construction, transportation, and electricity [11][13] - High-performing sectors historically during weak economic phases include high-growth industries and defensive sectors, such as low-valuation blue-chip stocks [12] Investment Opportunities - From a value investment perspective, sectors with low historical PE percentiles, such as non-bank financials, transportation, and non-ferrous metals, are highlighted as attractive for short-term allocation [14] - Short-term investment strategies should include a balanced mix of growth and blue-chip stocks, with a focus on undervalued sectors and those that have undergone significant adjustments [15]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant adjustment, with all three major indices declining collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.46% to 3335.75 points, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.97% to 10504.33 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.15% to 2103.70 points. Over 4000 stocks declined, with less than 500 stocks rising, indicating a pessimistic market sentiment [1][2]. Reasons for Decline - External factors impacting the market include changes in the Federal Reserve's policy expectations, which have cooled interest rate cut anticipations, leading to pressure on global risk assets and foreign capital outflow from A-shares. Additionally, geopolitical tensions have heightened risk aversion, prompting some funds to withdraw from the stock market [3]. - Internal economic data has shown weakness, with recent PMI, consumption, and industrial value-added data falling short of expectations, raising concerns about the strength of economic recovery. Certain sectors, such as real estate and consumer electronics, have reported declining performance, negatively affecting related sectors [3]. - There is pressure on the funding side, with northbound capital experiencing a net outflow exceeding a specified amount, and margin trading balances declining, indicating reduced activity of leveraged funds [3]. Sector Performance - Leading sectors that faced declines include: - New Energy: Major stocks like CATL and LONGi Green Energy fell due to rumors of industry overcapacity. - Consumer Electronics: Stocks within the Apple supply chain collectively retreated. - Brokerage: The brokerage sector faced pressure due to low market trading activity [5]. - Defensive sectors, such as agriculture and pharmaceuticals, remained relatively stable, while high-dividend assets like banks and public utilities attracted risk-averse funds [5]. Investment Strategies - Companies suggest that the market may continue to experience fluctuations in the short term, advising investors to focus on policy catalysts and firms with strong earnings certainty. It is recommended to control positions to avoid blind bottom-fishing and to wait for market stabilization signals [4][5]. - Attention should be given to policy developments, such as increased growth stabilization measures or favorable capital market reforms, and to prioritize defensive sectors like consumer goods and pharmaceuticals that are undervalued [5].

Market Overview - On May 23, A-share market experienced a significant drop, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling over 0.9% and more than 4,200 stocks declining [2][5] - The market's risk appetite sharply decreased, leading to a notable rise in gold stocks as investors sought safe-haven assets [2][7] Market Dynamics - The decline in the A-share market was attributed to multiple factors, including a flash crash in the North Stock 50 index and a strong demand for capital outflow [10] - The trading volume of the CSI 2000 index recently surpassed its three-month high, indicating extreme congestion in micro-cap stock trading [10] - There was a notable shift in main capital from previously popular tech stocks to high-dividend sectors like banking and electricity [10] Global Influences - Increased global financial uncertainty, particularly concerns over the U.S. debt crisis and rising U.S. Treasury yields, has pressured risk asset valuations [10] - The 20-year U.S. Treasury yield has surpassed 5.1%, contributing to a risk-off sentiment among global investors [10] Future Outlook - Analysts believe the current market adjustment is more of a phase rather than a trend, with A-share valuations at relatively low historical levels [11][12] - There is potential for a structural market rally supported by policy measures and liquidity easing [11][12] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are at 13.85 and 36.44, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [12]