投资咨询从业资格号: Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 上周(10.20-10.24),美豆期价涨势为主,因为中美经贸磋商及中方采购美豆希望。10月24日至 27 日中美在马来西亚举行经贸磋商、10 月底中美元首在韩国可能举行双边会晤（大豆将是议题之一)。此 外,日本拟购买美豆、印度美国即将达成双边贸易协议(印度增加从美国进口非转基因玉米与豆粕),也 有利多影响。从周Ｋ线角度,10月24日当周,美豆主力 01月合约周涨幅 2.19%,美豆粕主力 12月合约 周涨幅 4.59%。 2025 年 10月 26 日 中美少 等待国储收购, 上周(10.20-10.24),国内豆一现货主要情况:1)豆价分化:东北产区偏强、关内新豆上市跌价。 据博朗资讯,⊙ 东北部分地区大豆净粮收购价格（过４.5 筛净粮主流收购价格）报价区间 3860～3960 元 /吨，较前周上涨 40~80元/吨;② 关内部分地区大豆净粮收购价格区间 4660~4900 元/吨,较前周下跌 360～460 元/吨；③ 销区东北食用大豆销售价格（中等含包装"塔选"东北豆市场主流零售价）区间 4360~4620元/吨,较前周 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - International aspect: Sino-US trade conflict has escalated again, and China has not purchased US soybeans. There are concerns about soybean procurement during the APEC meeting at the end of the month. China's large - scale procurement from Argentina has narrowed the supply gap from November to January. The US government shutdown has led to a suspension of data release, and the market expects a slight reduction in the US soybean yield per acre in the October USDA report. Brazil's continuous precipitation is conducive to sowing [3][76]. - Domestic aspect: As of the end of September, the procurement progress of soybean shipments from November to January is different. If no soybean procurement agreement is reached between China and the US, policy adjustments will be concerned. After the holiday, the oil - mill crushing rate is expected to gradually recover, and the domestic supply peak may occur in October, with sufficient current spot supply [3][76]. - Outlook: Brazil's precipitation is beneficial for sowing. The US soybean yield may be adjusted downwards, but it is under pressure due to harvesting and weak export demand. There are still procurement gaps from November to January in China. Pay attention to the Sino - US negotiation during the APEC meeting and policy - end soybean release. After the holiday, the oil - mill operation rate will recover, and the supply is generally loose, with spot prices under pressure. The Dalian soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate in October [3][77]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review of Soybean Meal - Since September, soybean meal has shown a weakening trend. By the end of September, the 01 - contract of soybean meal, South China's spot price, and the CBOT November - contract of US soybeans all declined. In the first half of August, the price fluctuated slightly due to sufficient domestic soybean arrivals, high oil - mill operation rates, and concerns about future supply. In the second half of September, it declined due to Sino - US trade sentiment and China's large - scale procurement from Argentina [9]. 2. International Aspect 2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - According to the USDA September report, the global soybean production in 2025/2026 is 425.88 million tons, a decrease of 520,000 tons from the previous month's estimate. The global crushing demand is 366.63 million tons, a decrease of 1.08 million tons. The ending inventory is 123.99 million tons, a decrease of 910,000 tons, with a stock - to - consumption ratio of 29.25% [15]. 2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The September USDA report is slightly bearish. In 2025/2026, the US soybean planting area increased by 200,000 acres to 81.1 million acres, the yield per acre decreased slightly to 53.5 bushels/acre, and the production is estimated to be 4.301 billion bushels. The crushing demand increased by 15 million bushels to 2.555 billion bushels, the export demand decreased by 20 million bushels to 1.685 billion bushels, and the ending inventory increased slightly to 300 million bushels [22]. 2.3 US Soybean Production Area Weather - As of September 28, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 19%, the good - to - excellent rate was 62%, and the defoliation rate was 79%. Due to the government shutdown, the weekly crop growth report was suspended. As of October 5, the harvest progress was estimated to be 39%. Future precipitation is generally conducive to harvesting [28]. 2.4 US Soybean Crushing Demand - In August 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 189.81 million bushels, higher than expected. From September 2024 to August 2025, the cumulative crushing volume increased by 5.81% year - on - year. As of September 26, the US soybean crushing gross profit was 2.84 dollars/bushel [30]. 2.5 US Soybean Export Demand - As of September 18, 2025, the US soybean net export sales in the current market year were 724,000 tons. The cumulative export sales in the 2025/2026 season were 9.42 million tons, and China has not purchased new - crop US soybeans [31]. 2.6 Brazil's Soybean Balance Sheet and Exports - In the 2025/2026 season, Brazil's soybean production remains at 175 million tons, export demand is 112 million tons, crushing demand is 58 million tons, ending inventory is 37.26 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 21.38%. In August 2025, Brazil's soybean export volume was 9.34 million tons. As of early October, the sowing progress was 8.2% on average, and future precipitation is conducive to sowing [36][40][43]. 2.7 Argentina's Soybean Situation - In the 2025/2026 season, Argentina's soybean production remains at 48.5 million tons, export demand increases by 200,000 tons to 6 million tons, crushing demand decreases by 600,000 tons to 42.4 million tons, ending inventory is 23.85 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 42.66%. After Argentina suspended the soybean export tax in September, China purchased nearly 2.3 million tons [51][54]. 3. Domestic Situation 3.1 Imported Soybeans and Others - In August 2025, China imported 12.28 million tons of soybeans. As of September 23, the procurement progress of November, December, and January shipments was 36%, 2.9%, and 0% respectively. The estimated arrivals in September, October, and November are 10 million, 9 million, and 8.5 million tons respectively [57]. 3.2 Domestic Oil - Mill Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the main oil - mill soybean inventory was 7.1991 million tons, the soybean meal inventory was 1.1892 million tons, and the unfulfilled contracts were 4.1017 million tons. The national port soybean inventory was 9.385 million tons. The weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 172,160 tons, and the daily提货量 was 189,330 tons [62][63]. 3.3 Feed and Breeding Situation - In August 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The proportion of corn in compound feed was 32.9%, and the proportion of soybean meal in compound and concentrated feed was 14.3% [66]. 4. Summary and Outlook - International: Sino - US trade conflict has escalated, and China has not purchased US soybeans. The supply gap from November to January has narrowed. Pay attention to policy and international procurement. The US soybean harvest is expected to progress smoothly, but there are concerns about exports. Brazil's precipitation is beneficial for sowing [76]. - Domestic: As of the end of September, the procurement progress of soybean shipments from November to January is different. If no procurement agreement is reached, pay attention to policy adjustments. After the holiday, the oil - mill operation rate will recover, and the supply is generally loose [76]. - Outlook: The Dalian soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate in October [77].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA August report raised the U.S. soybean yield per acre to a record - high of 53.6 bushels/acre but cut the 2025/26 planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, resulting in a tighter supply - demand balance for new - crop U.S. soybeans. The Pro Farmer survey estimated a lower yield per acre at 63 bushels/acre, and the good - excellent rate remained high at 68%, with a possible yield reduction due to less rainfall and lower temperatures in the next two weeks [5]. - The import volume of soybeans to China is expected to exceed 10 million tons in August and September, and soybean meal is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. The purchase of ships from October to January is slow. Under Sino - U.S. trade policies, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far - month [5][6]. - In terms of demand, the high inventory of pig and poultry breeding supports the demand for soybean meal, but policy guidance controls pig inventory and weight, which may affect future pig supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is high, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. Some areas use wheat to replace corn, reducing the demand for protein. This week, the downstream transactions of soybean meal were cautious [6]. - In terms of inventory, domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, the speed of soybean meal inventory accumulation has slowed down but is still in the accumulation cycle, and the inventory days of feed enterprises have increased [6]. - Overall, the expectation of Sino - U.S. talks and domestic reserve sales are negative for the soybean meal market, and the crushing profit has deteriorated. With the support of import costs, the downside space below 101 is limited, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to Sino - U.S. policy changes [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - The basis of soybean meal's main contract in different regions on August 27: Dalian was 95 with a change of 26, Tianjin was 15 with a change of 16, etc. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in different regions also varied, such as - 5 in Zhangjiagang with a change of 26 [4]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 375 with a change of 17, and the futures price difference of the main contract was 420 with a change of - 19 [5]. 3.2 Inventory and Supply - Demand Data - Supply: The USDA report adjusted the 2025/26 U.S. soybean ending inventory from 310 million bushels in July to 290 million bushels. The expected import volume of soybeans to China in August and September is over 10 million tons [5]. - Demand: High inventory of pig and poultry breeding supports the demand for soybean meal, but policy controls on pig inventory and weight may affect future supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is high, but downstream transactions are cautious this week [6]. - Inventory: Domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, soybean meal inventory accumulation has slowed but is still in the cycle, and the inventory days of feed enterprises have increased [6]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The soybean meal market is affected by negative factors such as Sino - U.S. talks and domestic reserve sales, and the crushing profit has deteriorated. With import cost support, the downside space is limited, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to Sino - U.S. policy changes [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After the call between Chinese and US leaders, the market's bullish sentiment was boosted, and bullish funds actively entered the market, causing the Dalian soybean meal futures to rise significantly. However, as China has not yet purchased new - season US soybeans, the changes in subsequent Sino - US trade negotiations need to be monitored. The US soybean sowing season has been relatively smooth, with a good initial report on crop quality, and overall normal weather in the production areas, but the precipitation forecast in the Midwest is slightly dry, which may bring phased growth pressure. Attention should be paid to the area survey report and the change in crop quality at the end of June. Brazil's soybean export peak has passed, and the soybean premium has rebounded. Argentina's soybean harvest is nearly complete, and a bumper harvest is established. - Domestically, oil mills have sufficient purchases of Brazilian soybeans for the June - August shipping schedule. Attention should be paid to the soybean purchase dynamics for the fourth quarter. The arrival of soybeans in China is still ongoing, with an estimated arrival of over 10 million tons in June - July and 8 - 10 million tons in August - September, resulting in a generally loose short - term supply. The operating rate of oil mills remains high, and domestic soybean and soybean meal are still in the process of inventory accumulation, with spot prices gradually declining and basis continuing to weaken. The提货 volume of soybean meal from oil mills has increased significantly, providing short - term support for market demand. Feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory has continued to rise but is at a low level compared to the same period, and there is still a need for restocking in the future. - As new - season US soybeans for the fourth quarter have not been purchased, the call between Chinese and US leaders may provide an expectation of improvement for subsequent trade negotiations, boosting the domestic futures market. Attention should be paid to subsequent trade negotiations, the weather in the US soybean production areas, the release of USDA reports, and the area report at the end of June. Domestically, supply has increased, putting pressure on spot prices, while feed enterprises'提货 and restocking have increased, and inventory has gradually recovered. Technically, the futures market has formed a bottom structure, and long - term there are opportunities to go long on dips. Overall, in the short term, Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [3][74][75] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Review of the Soybean Meal Market - Since May, soybean meal has shown a weak oscillation followed by a small - scale rebound. At the end of May, the 09 - contract of soybean meal increased by 48 yuan/ton to 2968 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.64%. In the first half of May, the market was mainly influenced by the increase in soybean arrivals and the rise in the operating rate of oil mills, leading to an increase in soybean meal supply and a decline in spot prices. The futures market was weakly oscillating due to uncertainties in Sino - US relations. In the second half of May, the market was affected by the potential soybean production reduction in Argentina due to heavy rain and the impact of short - term heavy precipitation on the sowing progress in the US soybean production areas. Bullish funds pushed up the futures market, and the weather model predicted a dry and less - rainy growing season for US soybeans, injecting a certain weather premium into the market. However, due to the sufficient supply of soybeans in the past two months, the upward space was limited in the short term [9] 2. International Aspects 2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - According to the new - season soybean balance sheet released by the US Department of Agriculture in May, the global soybean production in the 2025/2026 season is 426.817 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.41%, showing a slowdown. Global export demand is 188.432 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.18%. The crushing demand is 366.462 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3.48%. The ending inventory is 124.33 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons year - on - year, and the stock - to - consumption ratio has dropped to 29.32%, indicating a slight tightening of the global supply - demand situation [12] 2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - In the 2024/2025 season, the export demand for US soybeans was raised by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels, leading to a decline in ending inventory to 350 million bushels and a stock - to - consumption ratio of 7.98%. In the 2025/2026 season, the sown area is 83.5 million acres, the yield per acre is 52.5 bushels, and the production is 4.34 billion bushels. The US crushing capacity continues to expand, with an annual increase of 70 million bushels to 2.49 billion bushels, and the export demand is slightly reduced to 1.815 billion bushels. The ending inventory of new - season soybeans has dropped to 295 million bushels, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 6.68%, indicating a tightening supply situation [16] 2.3 Weather in US Soybean Production Areas - As of the week ending June 1, 2025, the sowing progress of US soybeans was 84%, lower than the market expectation of 86%. The emergence rate was 63%, and the good - quality rate was 67%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. As of the week ending May 27, about 17% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. The weather forecast shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in the US soybean production areas will be 80 - 90 mm, which is beneficial for the initial growth of soybeans, and the sowing season is expected to end smoothly [18] 2.4 US Soybean Crushing Demand - In April 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 190.226 million bushels, higher than the market expectation. From September 2024 to April 2025, the cumulative US soybean crushing volume was 1.540098 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.24%. As of the week ending May 23, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 1.85 dollars per bushel [22] 2.5 US Soybean Export Demand - As of the week ending May 22, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the current market year increased by 146,000 tons. The cumulative export sales volume of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 48.46 million tons, with a sales progress of 96.2%. China did not purchase US soybeans that week, and the cumulative purchase volume in the current year was 22.48 million tons [23] 2.6 Brazilian Soybean Balance Sheet and Exports - In the 2024/2025 season, Brazil's soybean production remained at 169 million tons, export demand was reduced by 1 million tons to 104.5 million tons, and ending inventory increased to 33.31 million tons. In the 2025/2026 season, Brazil's soybean production is estimated to be 175 million tons, export demand is 112 million tons, crushing demand is 58 million tons, and ending inventory is 34.16 million tons, with a stock - to - consumption ratio of 19.6%. In April 2025, Brazil's soybean export volume was 15.27 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to April was 37.45 million tons [32][38][39] 2.7 Brazilian Soybean Harvest - As of the week ending May 24, 2025, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil was 99.5%, and the harvest work was basically completed [41] 2.8 Argentine Soybean Situation - In the 2024/2025 season, Argentina's soybean production remained at 49 million tons. In the 2025/2026 season, production was slightly reduced to 48.5 million tons, crushing demand was raised to 43 million tons, ending inventory was 25.45 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio was 46.27% [44] 3. Domestic Situation 3.1 Import of Soybeans and Other Products - In April 2025, China's soybean import volume was 6.08 million tons, lower than the market expectation, mainly due to tightened customs clearance policies. From October 2024 to April 2025, China's cumulative soybean import volume was 46.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.68 million tons. The estimated arrival volume in May was over 12 million tons, and in June - July it was over 10 million tons. In April 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 489,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to April was 1.388 million tons. The rapeseed meal import volume in April was 289,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to April was 1.086 million tons [49] 3.2 Domestic Oil Mill Inventory - As of the week ending May 30, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 5.8288 million tons, an increase from the previous week and the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 298,000 tons, and the unexecuted contracts were 3.6929 million tons. The national port soybean inventory was 7.054 million tons. The daily average trading volume of soybean meal in the week was 82,580 tons, and the daily average提货 volume was 186,080 tons. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.2682 million tons, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 5.99 days [52] 3.3 Feed and Aquaculture Situation - In April 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.2% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. The proportion of corn in compound feed produced by feed enterprises was 42.1%, and the proportion of soybean meal in compound feed and concentrated feed was 12.1% [61] 4. Summary and Outlook for the Future - Internationally, after the call between Chinese and US leaders, the market sentiment was boosted, but attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations. The US soybean sowing season was smooth, but the Midwest may face growth pressure. Brazil's export peak has passed, and Argentina's soybean harvest is nearly complete. Domestically, the supply of soybeans is loose in the short term, and oil mills and feed enterprises are in the process of inventory adjustment. In the future, attention should be paid to trade negotiations, weather conditions, USDA reports, and the area report at the end of June. Technically, there are long - term opportunities to go long on dips, and in the short term, Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [74][75]