1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The outlook for the US Department of Agriculture's February report shows limited adjustments to the US soybean balance sheet, a slight increase in Brazilian soybean production, and basically unchanged production in Argentina, with an expected neutral impact. Attention should be paid to the new - season US soybean planting area report released by the US Agricultural Outlook Forum this month. As of the end of January, the US soybean export sales progress was 80%, slightly slower than the same period last year. China has achieved its goal of purchasing 1.2 billion tons of US soybeans, and the purchase pace has slowed down. Recently, Trump said that China will additionally purchase 800,000 tons of soybeans this year, boosting the external market. Follow - up purchase trends should be monitored. The US soybean crushing volume continues to increase. Next, attention should be paid to the release of US biodiesel policies. Current bullish expectations support the US soybean oil to be oscillating strongly [3][72]. - Argentina experienced drought concerns in late January, but the recent precipitation forecast has increased, the crop rating is good, and the production forecast remains at the normal level. Brazil's soybean harvesting progress has exceeded 10%, and the subsequent progress will accelerate. Institutions expect the export volume in February to reach 11.42 million tons, a significant increase compared to the same period in previous years. The arrival of domestic soybeans will increase from March to April, and the tight supply expectation will continue to improve [3][72]. - China's soybean purchase plans for the February - March shipping schedules are basically completed, and the purchase plan for the April shipping schedule is about 70% complete, with the overall rhythm being relatively smooth. One week before the Spring Festival, the peak stocking period has passed. The oil - mill startup and crushing rate are expected to gradually decline in the next two weeks. The purchase and trading volume of soybean meal has slowed down, while feed enterprises are still actively picking up goods, and the physical inventory of soybean meal has increased. Currently, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is at a high level compared to the same period. Market news indicates that the auction of imported soybeans will resume after the Spring Festival, and the supply remains relatively loose [3][72]. - In summary, it is expected that the Dalian soybean meal futures will continue to oscillate in the short term. The high - yield pattern in South America remains unchanged, and as the harvest progresses, the loose supply situation will become apparent. In the medium to long term, the price center is expected to oscillate downward. Next, attention should be paid to the multi - factor effects of post - festival restocking, imported soybean auctions, new US soybean purchases, and the Agricultural Outlook Forum report [3][72][73]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review of Soybean Meal - Since January, both US soybeans and soybean meal have shown range - bound oscillations. At the end of January, the soybean meal contract 05 rose 18 to close at 2,767 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.66%. The spot price of soybean meal in South China rose 40 to close at 3,120 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.3%. The CBOT March US soybean contract rose 17 to close at 1,064.25 cents per bushel, an increase of 1.62%. After the New Year's Day, the purchasing sentiment recovered, and the trading volume increased. With the expected decrease in the arrival of soybeans in the first quarter and a tight supply expectation, the spot price was relatively strong, and the soybean meal price oscillated upward after the festival. In mid - January, the futures price oscillated downward. The restart of the domestic imported soybean auction, with a total of 1.14 million tons of the released volume being fully traded, alleviated the tight supply expectation for the first quarter. The January USDA report was generally bearish. Under the influence of multiple negative factors such as the improvement in trade relations between China and Canada and the reopening of the Canadian rapeseed import window, the price declined. In late January, the soybean meal price oscillated upward and then declined. The hype about the drought in Argentina intensified, the pre - festival stocking demand increased, and the strong sentiment in the metal sector drove the commodity market to strengthen, pushing the futures price to the previous high range. However, the high - yield expectation in Brazil remains unchanged, the export supply has increased, the US soybean export sales rhythm has slowed down, the precipitation forecast in Argentina has increased, and the stocking is coming to an end. Recently, the Dalian soybean meal futures have oscillated downward [9]. 3.2 International Situation 3.2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - The January USDA report shows that the global soybean production in the 2025/2026 season is 425.68 million tons, an increase of 3.14 million tons compared to the December estimate. The global soybean crushing demand is 366.43 million tons, an increase of 1.19 million tons compared to the December estimate. The global soybean ending inventory in the 2025/2026 season is 124.4 million tons, an increase of 2.04 million tons compared to the previous month. The stock - to - consumption ratio is 29.4%, indicating a slightly looser supply - demand situation [11]. 3.2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The January USDA report shows that the US soybean balance sheet is generally bearish. In the 2025/2026 season, the US soybean yield per acre remains unchanged at 53 bushels, and the production is slightly increased to 4.262 billion bushels. Due to the good crushing performance, the crushing demand is increased by 15 million bushels to 257 million bushels. The export is slower than the same period last year, and concerns remain, so the export demand is decreased by 60 million bushels to 157.5 million bushels. The ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season is 350 million bushels, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 8.22%, indicating a looser situation compared to the previous month's estimate [14]. 3.2.3 US Soybean Crushing Demand - According to the data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), the US soybean crushing volume in December 2025 was 224.991 million bushels, a 4.1% increase compared to November. Compared with December 2024, it increased by 8.9%. From September to December in the 2025/2026 season, the cumulative US soybean crushing volume was 866.542 million bushels, an 11.5% increase compared to the same period last year. The USDA's estimated growth target for crushing demand in the 2025/2026 season is 5.11%. At the end of November 2025, the US soybean oil inventory was 1.686 billion pounds. Based on the calculation results of the USDA's crushing weekly report, as of the week ending January 23, 2026, the US soybean crushing gross profit was $2.54 per bushel. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at the Illinois soybean processing plant was $300.02 per short ton, and the truck - delivered price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 52.96 cents per pound. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was $10.69 per bushel [17]. 3.2.4 US Soybean Export Demand - As of the week ending January 22, 2026, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season were 819,000 tons. The cumulative export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season were 33.854 million tons, with a sales progress of 79.0%, compared to 42.683 million tons in the same period last year, with an overall progress of 83.6%. The net purchase volume of China in that week was 233,000 tons. China's cumulative purchase volume this year is 9.65 million tons. Considering the purchases from unknown destinations, China's total purchase of US soybeans this year is 12 million tons [19]. 3.2.5 Brazilian Soybean Situation - The January USDA report shows that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/2026 season is increased by 3 million tons to 178 million tons, mainly due to the suitable weather conditions during the growth and development stage of Brazilian soybeans. The export demand is increased by 1.5 million tons to 114 million tons, and the crushing demand is increased by 1 million tons to 60 million tons. The ending inventory is 36.91 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 20.69%. According to Brazilian official export data, the Brazilian soybean export volume in December 2025 was 3.38 million tons. From January to December 2025, the cumulative Brazilian soybean export volume was 108.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.38 million tons. The Brazilian National Association of Cereal Exporters predicts that the Brazilian soybean export volume in February will reach 11.42 million tons. As of January 31, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 99.6%, and the harvesting rate was 11.4% [22][23][27]. 3.2.6 Argentine Soybean Situation - The January USDA report shows that the Argentine soybean production in the 2025/2026 season remains unchanged at 48.5 million tons, the export demand remains at 8.25 million tons, the crushing demand remains at 41 million tons, the ending inventory is 22.84 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 40.46%. As of the week ending January 30, 2026, the Argentine soybean sowing work is nearly completed, with 99.5% of the planned sowing area completed. The latest forecast shows that the precipitation in the Argentine production area will increase in the next two weeks, alleviating the drought concerns. As of the week ending January 28, the proportion of soybeans with good or normal crop conditions was 84%, still higher than the same period last year [29][36]. 3.3 Domestic Situation 3.3.1 Imported Soybeans and Other Situations - According to the data from the General Administration of Customs, China's soybean import volume in December 2025 was 8.04 million tons, of which 5.66 million tons were from Brazil, accounting for 70.4%, and 1.65 million tons were from Argentina, accounting for 20.5%. In 2025, the total soybean import volume was 111.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.79 million tons. As of the week ending January 27, 2026, the purchase plan for the February shipping schedule was 9.5 million tons, with 8.86 million tons purchased, a completion rate of 93.2%. The purchase plan for the March shipping schedule was 12 million tons, with 11.59 million tons purchased, a completion rate of 96.6%. The purchase plan for the April shipping schedule was 11.5 million tons, with 6.37 million tons purchased, a completion rate of 55.4% [44]. 3.3.2 Domestic Oil - Mill Inventory - As of the week ending January 30, 2026, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.355 million tons, a decrease of 234,900 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 1.9652 million tons compared to the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 930,400 tons, an increase of 31,800 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 449,800 tons compared to the same period last year. The unexecuted contracts were 3.0932 million tons, a decrease of 968,400 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 290,900 tons compared to the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 6.713 million tons, a decrease of 502,000 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 611,800 tons compared to the same period last year. The national weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 309,860 tons, including 57,700 tons of spot trading and 252,160 tons of forward trading. The weekly average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal was 194,200 tons. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.2961 million tons. The soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises were 11.33 days [48]. 3.3.3 Feed and Aquaculture Situation - The total output of the national industrial feed was 342.253 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. Among them, the output of compound feed was 319.46 million tons, an increase of 8.8%; the output of concentrated feed was 13.381 million tons, an increase of 3.4%; and the output of additive premixed feed was 7.527 million tons, an increase of 8.3%. In terms of varieties, the output of pig feed was 166.394 million tons, an increase of 15.6%; the output of egg - laying poultry feed was 32.82 million tons, an increase of 1.4%; the output of meat - poultry feed was 100.977 million tons, an increase of 3.5%; the output of ruminant feed was 14.758 million tons, an increase of 1.8%; and the output of aquatic feed was 23.231 million tons, an increase of 2.7% [61].

Group 1: Market Trends - Last week (Oct 20 - 24), US soybean futures prices mainly rose due to China-US economic and trade consultations and China's potential purchase of US soybeans, with the main January 2026 contract of US soybeans rising 2.19% and the main December 2025 contract of US soybean meal rising 4.59% on a weekly basis [2] - Domestic soybean meal futures prices rebounded from a low level, and soybean No. 1 futures prices were relatively strong. The main January 2026 contract of soybean meal rose 2.27%, and the main January 2026 contract of soybean No. 1 rose 1.89% on a weekly basis [3] Group 2: International Soybean Market Fundamentals - The US government shutdown continued, and USDA reports were still suspended, with little impact [3] - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans increased week-on-week, which was a bullish factor. The average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for December delivery decreased week-on-week, while the average import cost increased, and the average crushing profit on the futures market decreased [3] - The planting progress of new Brazilian soybeans was relatively fast, which was a bearish factor. As of the week of Oct 16, the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was about 24%, compared with 14% the previous week and about 18% in the same period last year [3] - The weather forecast for the main soybean-producing areas in Brazil showed that precipitation would be slightly less than normal in the next two weeks (Oct 25 - Nov 7), and the temperature would fluctuate around the average, with a neutral impact [3] Group 3: Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - The weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal decreased. As of the week of Oct 24, the average daily trading volume of mainstream oil mills in China was about 100,000 tons, compared with about 150,000 tons the previous week [4] - The weekly average daily pick-up volume of soybean meal increased. As of the week of Oct 24, the average daily pick-up volume of major oil mills was about 200,000 tons, compared with about 187,000 tons the previous week [4] - The basis of soybean meal decreased week-on-week. As of the week of Oct 24, the weekly average basis of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was about 12 yuan/ton, compared with about 21 yuan/ton the previous week and about 35 yuan/ton in the same period last year [5] - The inventory of soybean meal decreased week-on-week and was basically flat year-on-year. As of the week of Oct 17, the inventory of mainstream oil mills in China was about 850,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 9% [5] - The weekly soybean crushing volume increased week-on-week and was expected to slightly decrease next week. As of the week of Oct 24, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 2.37 million tons, and the operating rate was about 65%. Next week (Oct 25 - 31), the expected crushing volume was about 2.34 million tons, and the operating rate was 64% [5] Group 4: Domestic Soybean No. 1 Spot Market - The soybean prices were divided, with prices in the Northeast producing area being relatively strong and prices of new soybeans in the Inner Pass area falling. The purchase price of clean soybeans in the Northeast increased by 40 - 80 yuan/ton, while that in the Inner Pass area decreased by 360 - 460 yuan/ton, and the selling price in the southern sales area increased by 20 - 60 yuan/ton [6] - Farmers in the Northeast producing area were reluctant to sell, and the purchase price was slightly increased [6] - The demand in the southern sales area was expected to improve due to the cooling weather [6] Group 5: Market Outlook - Next week (Oct 27 - 31), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No. 1 futures were expected to fluctuate, waiting for guidance from China-US economic and trade consultations [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - International aspect: Sino-US trade conflict has escalated again, and China has not purchased US soybeans. There are concerns about soybean procurement during the APEC meeting at the end of the month. China's large - scale procurement from Argentina has narrowed the supply gap from November to January. The US government shutdown has led to a suspension of data release, and the market expects a slight reduction in the US soybean yield per acre in the October USDA report. Brazil's continuous precipitation is conducive to sowing [3][76]. - Domestic aspect: As of the end of September, the procurement progress of soybean shipments from November to January is different. If no soybean procurement agreement is reached between China and the US, policy adjustments will be concerned. After the holiday, the oil - mill crushing rate is expected to gradually recover, and the domestic supply peak may occur in October, with sufficient current spot supply [3][76]. - Outlook: Brazil's precipitation is beneficial for sowing. The US soybean yield may be adjusted downwards, but it is under pressure due to harvesting and weak export demand. There are still procurement gaps from November to January in China. Pay attention to the Sino - US negotiation during the APEC meeting and policy - end soybean release. After the holiday, the oil - mill operation rate will recover, and the supply is generally loose, with spot prices under pressure. The Dalian soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate in October [3][77]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review of Soybean Meal - Since September, soybean meal has shown a weakening trend. By the end of September, the 01 - contract of soybean meal, South China's spot price, and the CBOT November - contract of US soybeans all declined. In the first half of August, the price fluctuated slightly due to sufficient domestic soybean arrivals, high oil - mill operation rates, and concerns about future supply. In the second half of September, it declined due to Sino - US trade sentiment and China's large - scale procurement from Argentina [9]. 2. International Aspect 2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - According to the USDA September report, the global soybean production in 2025/2026 is 425.88 million tons, a decrease of 520,000 tons from the previous month's estimate. The global crushing demand is 366.63 million tons, a decrease of 1.08 million tons. The ending inventory is 123.99 million tons, a decrease of 910,000 tons, with a stock - to - consumption ratio of 29.25% [15]. 2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The September USDA report is slightly bearish. In 2025/2026, the US soybean planting area increased by 200,000 acres to 81.1 million acres, the yield per acre decreased slightly to 53.5 bushels/acre, and the production is estimated to be 4.301 billion bushels. The crushing demand increased by 15 million bushels to 2.555 billion bushels, the export demand decreased by 20 million bushels to 1.685 billion bushels, and the ending inventory increased slightly to 300 million bushels [22]. 2.3 US Soybean Production Area Weather - As of September 28, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 19%, the good - to - excellent rate was 62%, and the defoliation rate was 79%. Due to the government shutdown, the weekly crop growth report was suspended. As of October 5, the harvest progress was estimated to be 39%. Future precipitation is generally conducive to harvesting [28]. 2.4 US Soybean Crushing Demand - In August 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 189.81 million bushels, higher than expected. From September 2024 to August 2025, the cumulative crushing volume increased by 5.81% year - on - year. As of September 26, the US soybean crushing gross profit was 2.84 dollars/bushel [30]. 2.5 US Soybean Export Demand - As of September 18, 2025, the US soybean net export sales in the current market year were 724,000 tons. The cumulative export sales in the 2025/2026 season were 9.42 million tons, and China has not purchased new - crop US soybeans [31]. 2.6 Brazil's Soybean Balance Sheet and Exports - In the 2025/2026 season, Brazil's soybean production remains at 175 million tons, export demand is 112 million tons, crushing demand is 58 million tons, ending inventory is 37.26 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 21.38%. In August 2025, Brazil's soybean export volume was 9.34 million tons. As of early October, the sowing progress was 8.2% on average, and future precipitation is conducive to sowing [36][40][43]. 2.7 Argentina's Soybean Situation - In the 2025/2026 season, Argentina's soybean production remains at 48.5 million tons, export demand increases by 200,000 tons to 6 million tons, crushing demand decreases by 600,000 tons to 42.4 million tons, ending inventory is 23.85 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 42.66%. After Argentina suspended the soybean export tax in September, China purchased nearly 2.3 million tons [51][54]. 3. Domestic Situation 3.1 Imported Soybeans and Others - In August 2025, China imported 12.28 million tons of soybeans. As of September 23, the procurement progress of November, December, and January shipments was 36%, 2.9%, and 0% respectively. The estimated arrivals in September, October, and November are 10 million, 9 million, and 8.5 million tons respectively [57]. 3.2 Domestic Oil - Mill Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the main oil - mill soybean inventory was 7.1991 million tons, the soybean meal inventory was 1.1892 million tons, and the unfulfilled contracts were 4.1017 million tons. The national port soybean inventory was 9.385 million tons. The weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 172,160 tons, and the daily提货量 was 189,330 tons [62][63]. 3.3 Feed and Breeding Situation - In August 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The proportion of corn in compound feed was 32.9%, and the proportion of soybean meal in compound and concentrated feed was 14.3% [66]. 4. Summary and Outlook - International: Sino - US trade conflict has escalated, and China has not purchased US soybeans. The supply gap from November to January has narrowed. Pay attention to policy and international procurement. The US soybean harvest is expected to progress smoothly, but there are concerns about exports. Brazil's precipitation is beneficial for sowing [76]. - Domestic: As of the end of September, the procurement progress of soybean shipments from November to January is different. If no procurement agreement is reached, pay attention to policy adjustments. After the holiday, the oil - mill operation rate will recover, and the supply is generally loose [76]. - Outlook: The Dalian soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate in October [77].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA August report raised the U.S. soybean yield per acre to a record - high of 53.6 bushels/acre but cut the 2025/26 planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, resulting in a tighter supply - demand balance for new - crop U.S. soybeans. The Pro Farmer survey estimated a lower yield per acre at 63 bushels/acre, and the good - excellent rate remained high at 68%, with a possible yield reduction due to less rainfall and lower temperatures in the next two weeks [5]. - The import volume of soybeans to China is expected to exceed 10 million tons in August and September, and soybean meal is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. The purchase of ships from October to January is slow. Under Sino - U.S. trade policies, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far - month [5][6]. - In terms of demand, the high inventory of pig and poultry breeding supports the demand for soybean meal, but policy guidance controls pig inventory and weight, which may affect future pig supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is high, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. Some areas use wheat to replace corn, reducing the demand for protein. This week, the downstream transactions of soybean meal were cautious [6]. - In terms of inventory, domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, the speed of soybean meal inventory accumulation has slowed down but is still in the accumulation cycle, and the inventory days of feed enterprises have increased [6]. - Overall, the expectation of Sino - U.S. talks and domestic reserve sales are negative for the soybean meal market, and the crushing profit has deteriorated. With the support of import costs, the downside space below 101 is limited, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to Sino - U.S. policy changes [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - The basis of soybean meal's main contract in different regions on August 27: Dalian was 95 with a change of 26, Tianjin was 15 with a change of 16, etc. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in different regions also varied, such as - 5 in Zhangjiagang with a change of 26 [4]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 375 with a change of 17, and the futures price difference of the main contract was 420 with a change of - 19 [5]. 3.2 Inventory and Supply - Demand Data - Supply: The USDA report adjusted the 2025/26 U.S. soybean ending inventory from 310 million bushels in July to 290 million bushels. The expected import volume of soybeans to China in August and September is over 10 million tons [5]. - Demand: High inventory of pig and poultry breeding supports the demand for soybean meal, but policy controls on pig inventory and weight may affect future supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is high, but downstream transactions are cautious this week [6]. - Inventory: Domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, soybean meal inventory accumulation has slowed but is still in the cycle, and the inventory days of feed enterprises have increased [6]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The soybean meal market is affected by negative factors such as Sino - U.S. talks and domestic reserve sales, and the crushing profit has deteriorated. With import cost support, the downside space is limited, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to Sino - U.S. policy changes [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After the call between Chinese and US leaders, the market's bullish sentiment was boosted, and bullish funds actively entered the market, causing the Dalian soybean meal futures to rise significantly. However, as China has not yet purchased new - season US soybeans, the changes in subsequent Sino - US trade negotiations need to be monitored. The US soybean sowing season has been relatively smooth, with a good initial report on crop quality, and overall normal weather in the production areas, but the precipitation forecast in the Midwest is slightly dry, which may bring phased growth pressure. Attention should be paid to the area survey report and the change in crop quality at the end of June. Brazil's soybean export peak has passed, and the soybean premium has rebounded. Argentina's soybean harvest is nearly complete, and a bumper harvest is established. - Domestically, oil mills have sufficient purchases of Brazilian soybeans for the June - August shipping schedule. Attention should be paid to the soybean purchase dynamics for the fourth quarter. The arrival of soybeans in China is still ongoing, with an estimated arrival of over 10 million tons in June - July and 8 - 10 million tons in August - September, resulting in a generally loose short - term supply. The operating rate of oil mills remains high, and domestic soybean and soybean meal are still in the process of inventory accumulation, with spot prices gradually declining and basis continuing to weaken. The提货 volume of soybean meal from oil mills has increased significantly, providing short - term support for market demand. Feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory has continued to rise but is at a low level compared to the same period, and there is still a need for restocking in the future. - As new - season US soybeans for the fourth quarter have not been purchased, the call between Chinese and US leaders may provide an expectation of improvement for subsequent trade negotiations, boosting the domestic futures market. Attention should be paid to subsequent trade negotiations, the weather in the US soybean production areas, the release of USDA reports, and the area report at the end of June. Domestically, supply has increased, putting pressure on spot prices, while feed enterprises'提货 and restocking have increased, and inventory has gradually recovered. Technically, the futures market has formed a bottom structure, and long - term there are opportunities to go long on dips. Overall, in the short term, Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [3][74][75] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Review of the Soybean Meal Market - Since May, soybean meal has shown a weak oscillation followed by a small - scale rebound. At the end of May, the 09 - contract of soybean meal increased by 48 yuan/ton to 2968 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.64%. In the first half of May, the market was mainly influenced by the increase in soybean arrivals and the rise in the operating rate of oil mills, leading to an increase in soybean meal supply and a decline in spot prices. The futures market was weakly oscillating due to uncertainties in Sino - US relations. In the second half of May, the market was affected by the potential soybean production reduction in Argentina due to heavy rain and the impact of short - term heavy precipitation on the sowing progress in the US soybean production areas. Bullish funds pushed up the futures market, and the weather model predicted a dry and less - rainy growing season for US soybeans, injecting a certain weather premium into the market. However, due to the sufficient supply of soybeans in the past two months, the upward space was limited in the short term [9] 2. International Aspects 2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - According to the new - season soybean balance sheet released by the US Department of Agriculture in May, the global soybean production in the 2025/2026 season is 426.817 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.41%, showing a slowdown. Global export demand is 188.432 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.18%. The crushing demand is 366.462 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3.48%. The ending inventory is 124.33 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons year - on - year, and the stock - to - consumption ratio has dropped to 29.32%, indicating a slight tightening of the global supply - demand situation [12] 2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - In the 2024/2025 season, the export demand for US soybeans was raised by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels, leading to a decline in ending inventory to 350 million bushels and a stock - to - consumption ratio of 7.98%. In the 2025/2026 season, the sown area is 83.5 million acres, the yield per acre is 52.5 bushels, and the production is 4.34 billion bushels. The US crushing capacity continues to expand, with an annual increase of 70 million bushels to 2.49 billion bushels, and the export demand is slightly reduced to 1.815 billion bushels. The ending inventory of new - season soybeans has dropped to 295 million bushels, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 6.68%, indicating a tightening supply situation [16] 2.3 Weather in US Soybean Production Areas - As of the week ending June 1, 2025, the sowing progress of US soybeans was 84%, lower than the market expectation of 86%. The emergence rate was 63%, and the good - quality rate was 67%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. As of the week ending May 27, about 17% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. The weather forecast shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in the US soybean production areas will be 80 - 90 mm, which is beneficial for the initial growth of soybeans, and the sowing season is expected to end smoothly [18] 2.4 US Soybean Crushing Demand - In April 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 190.226 million bushels, higher than the market expectation. From September 2024 to April 2025, the cumulative US soybean crushing volume was 1.540098 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.24%. As of the week ending May 23, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 1.85 dollars per bushel [22] 2.5 US Soybean Export Demand - As of the week ending May 22, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the current market year increased by 146,000 tons. The cumulative export sales volume of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 48.46 million tons, with a sales progress of 96.2%. China did not purchase US soybeans that week, and the cumulative purchase volume in the current year was 22.48 million tons [23] 2.6 Brazilian Soybean Balance Sheet and Exports - In the 2024/2025 season, Brazil's soybean production remained at 169 million tons, export demand was reduced by 1 million tons to 104.5 million tons, and ending inventory increased to 33.31 million tons. In the 2025/2026 season, Brazil's soybean production is estimated to be 175 million tons, export demand is 112 million tons, crushing demand is 58 million tons, and ending inventory is 34.16 million tons, with a stock - to - consumption ratio of 19.6%. In April 2025, Brazil's soybean export volume was 15.27 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to April was 37.45 million tons [32][38][39] 2.7 Brazilian Soybean Harvest - As of the week ending May 24, 2025, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil was 99.5%, and the harvest work was basically completed [41] 2.8 Argentine Soybean Situation - In the 2024/2025 season, Argentina's soybean production remained at 49 million tons. In the 2025/2026 season, production was slightly reduced to 48.5 million tons, crushing demand was raised to 43 million tons, ending inventory was 25.45 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio was 46.27% [44] 3. Domestic Situation 3.1 Import of Soybeans and Other Products - In April 2025, China's soybean import volume was 6.08 million tons, lower than the market expectation, mainly due to tightened customs clearance policies. From October 2024 to April 2025, China's cumulative soybean import volume was 46.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.68 million tons. The estimated arrival volume in May was over 12 million tons, and in June - July it was over 10 million tons. In April 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 489,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to April was 1.388 million tons. The rapeseed meal import volume in April was 289,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to April was 1.086 million tons [49] 3.2 Domestic Oil Mill Inventory - As of the week ending May 30, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 5.8288 million tons, an increase from the previous week and the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 298,000 tons, and the unexecuted contracts were 3.6929 million tons. The national port soybean inventory was 7.054 million tons. The daily average trading volume of soybean meal in the week was 82,580 tons, and the daily average提货 volume was 186,080 tons. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.2682 million tons, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 5.99 days [52] 3.3 Feed and Aquaculture Situation - In April 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.2% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. The proportion of corn in compound feed produced by feed enterprises was 42.1%, and the proportion of soybean meal in compound feed and concentrated feed was 12.1% [61] 4. Summary and Outlook for the Future - Internationally, after the call between Chinese and US leaders, the market sentiment was boosted, but attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations. The US soybean sowing season was smooth, but the Midwest may face growth pressure. Brazil's export peak has passed, and Argentina's soybean harvest is nearly complete. Domestically, the supply of soybeans is loose in the short term, and oil mills and feed enterprises are in the process of inventory adjustment. In the future, attention should be paid to trade negotiations, weather conditions, USDA reports, and the area report at the end of June. Technically, there are long - term opportunities to go long on dips, and in the short term, Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [74][75]