美豆月度供需报告
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粕类周报:粕类周报供应整体宽松粕类总体承压-20250915
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 15:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market supply is relatively abundant, but the current price reflects the supply pressure, so the market lacks significant negative factors and the price support is relatively strong [4]. - The domestic soybean meal market supply and demand are relatively loose, with high soybean arrivals and crushing volumes. Although the cost - end support is strong, the price is expected to fluctuate [4]. - The domestic rapeseed meal market has limited changes, with low inventories and general demand. The price is expected to fluctuate due to limited supply - demand changes and macro uncertainties [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **International Soybean Market**: The US soybean market has limited upward momentum due to uncertain demand. South American prices are well - supported, with Brazil having good demand and Argentina potentially reducing exports [4]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal Market**: Supply and demand are relatively loose, with high arrivals and crushing volumes. Cost - end support is strong, and the price is expected to fluctuate [4]. - **Domestic Rapeseed Meal Market**: Changes are limited, with low inventories and general demand. The price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the single - side strategy, long positions can be established at low levels in the far - month contracts; for the arbitrage strategy, M11 - 1 positive spread and MRM05 spread widening are recommended; for the option strategy, buying call options is suggested [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean price rebounded due to previous low prices. The excellent - rate slightly decreased, but the overall yield is expected to be good. The export is general, and the crushing may increase. The price is expected to fluctuate [8][10]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: Brazilian soybean prices continued to rise. Demand is good, with increasing exports and potential growth in crushing. The price is expected to remain strong [11][13]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean meal price fluctuates. Supply is high, and although demand is good, inventory pressure exists. The price is under pressure but supported by cost [14][16]. - **Domestic Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal price declined. Supply and demand are relatively tight, with low inventories and general demand. The price is under pressure [17][19]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes - **International Market**: Data on US soybean sales, exports, and crushing, as well as Brazilian and Argentine soybean exports and crushing are presented [22][25]. - **Foreign Premium**: Data on the FOB prices of the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina, and the CNF price of rapeseed are provided [28]. - **Macro - factors**: Exchange rates and international shipping data are shown, including the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Brazilian real, and Argentine peso, and the shipping freight rates from different regions to China [32]. - **Supply**: Data on soybean and rapeseed imports and crushing are presented [41]. - **Demand**: Data on soybean meal and rapeseed meal提货量 are provided [44]. - **Inventory**: Data on soybean, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal inventories are presented [48].