【粕类周报】供应压力体现 粕类回落加深 银河农产品 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 目录 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 本周美豆盘面呈现小幅回落态势，前期利多体现比较充分后，盘面呈现比较明显的回落压力。美国市场近期变化有限，作物收获逐步开始，但优良 率有所下滑，总体产量预计维持高位。近期出口方面仍然缺乏明显改善，同时压榨带动也比较有限。市场整体供需方面带动比较有限。不过当前美 豆价位对于利多体现也比较有限，因此下方支撑也同样存在。南美近期价格表现出一定压力，一方面近期宏观方面影响有所增加，另一方面，南美 市场整体供应仍然比较充足，巴西大豆产量维持高位，虽然压榨方面表现良好，但后续总体出口仍然处于相对偏高水平，价格压力仍然存在。阿根 廷大豆产量维持相对偏高水平，近期受宏观方面影响以及前期出口量较大影响，整体供应压力有所好转。总体来看，当前国际大豆市场供应相对比 较宽松，但价格对于利空体现也比较多，因此预计进一步深跌空间也相对比较有限，整体以震荡运行为主。 国内豆粕供需仍然相对偏宽松，大豆到港量相对较大，油厂开机率也同样维持相对较高水平，豆粕需求表现良好，整体供 ...

【粕类周报】供应整体宽松 粕类总体承压 银河农产品 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 3 | | | | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 国内菜粕整体变化比较有限，菜籽及菜粕库存维持相对低位，需求表现也比较一般，整体市场变化比较有限。由于后续菜籽菜粕供需变化 均比较有限，宏观方面也存在不确定性，预计以震荡运行为主。 【策略】 单边：远月低位布局多单 套利：M11-1正套，MRM05价差扩大 期权：买入看涨期权（观点仅供参考，不作为买卖依据） 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 【综合分析】 本周美豆盘面整体呈现震荡偏强运行，市 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views 2.1. Soybean Meal - The downside space is limited, with support at the [2850] price level for the m2509 contract. [3] - Abroad, the good rate of US soybeans is relatively good, and the phased weather risk is limited. The upward driving force of CBOT soybeans is insufficient, and it is expected to maintain an operating range of 1000 - 1100 cents. Domestically, the expected arrival and crushing of imported soybeans remain at a high level, the supply of soybean meal continues to recover, and the downstream feed demand boost is limited. The basis of soybean meal spot is expected to be weak. From the cost side, the bottom space of CBOT soybeans is limited, and the import cost supports the price of soybean meal. [3] - In the short - term, affected by the decline in market sentiment and fundamental pressure, the futures market is expected to oscillate and correct. In the medium - to long - term, as the Sino - US relationship is undetermined, there are still concerns about soybean supply in the fourth quarter, and coupled with the seasonal recovery of downstream demand, the soybean meal futures market is expected to have an opportunity to strengthen. [3] 2.2. Rapeseed Meal - The downside space is limited, with support at the [2500] price level for the RM509 contract. [3] - Abroad, the global rapeseed inventory pressure in the 2024/25 season is limited, and the phased international rapeseed price is supported. In the 2025/26 season, the global rapeseed production is expected to recover, which may suppress the price center of rapeseed meal. Domestically, the near - month inventory is still relatively sufficient, and the far - month supply is expected to gradually tighten. The downstream aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the demand for rapeseed meal is expected to increase, but the supply of soybeans arriving in the next two months is loose, and the low spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is not conducive to the substitute consumption of rapeseed meal. The demand boost is expected to be limited. [3] - Overall, due to limited policy and fundamental support, the price of rapeseed meal is expected to adjust weakly following soybean meal. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Futures Data - DCE soybean meal futures: The 01 contract closed at 3059.00 this week, down 19 from last week, a decrease of 0.62%; the 05 contract closed at 2759.00, up 15 from last week, an increase of 0.55%; the 09 contract closed at 3021.00, down 35 from last week, a decrease of 1.15%. [12] - CZCE rapeseed meal futures: The 01 contract closed at 2405.00 this week, up 11 from last week, an increase of 0.46%; the 05 contract closed at 2373.00, up 21 from last week, an increase of 0.89%; the 09 contract closed at 2675.00, down 47 from last week, a decrease of 1.73%. [12] 3.2. US Soybean Supply and Demand - The excellent - good rate of US soybean production areas decreased slightly, and CBOT soybeans mainly oscillated. The US has reached trade agreements with Indonesia and Japan recently, and the market sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade negotiations at the end of July. [16][17] - As of July 20, 2025, the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the market expectation of 71%. As of the same week, the flowering rate of US soybeans was 62%, and the pod - setting rate was 20%. [17] - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.20 US dollars per bushel, a week - on - week decrease of 10.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.91%. [18] - As of July 22, about 8% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought. [17] - As of July 17, the net increase in US soybean export sales was 39.97 tons. [18] 3.3. South American Soybean Supply and Demand - The short - term Brazilian soybean premium continued to be strong, and the procurement for shipments after October was limited. Attention should be paid to the subsequent Sino - US trade policy changes. [29] - Brazil's soybean export sales are close to 70%. In Argentina, the soybean export tariff was restored in July, and farmers' sales enthusiasm declined. [30] - Anec estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in July were 12.11 million tons, and soybean meal exports were 2.4 million tons. [30] 3.4. CFTC Soybean and Soybean Meal Positions - As of July 15, 2025, the non - commercial net long position of CBOT soybeans was 286,869, and the non - commercial net long position of CBOT soybean meal was 179,629. [55][57] 3.5. Rapeseed Supply and Demand - Canada raised the output of old crops, and the output of new crops decreased slightly. The EU's yield per unit area is expected to be good. [59] - In the July USDA report, the global rapeseed output in the 2024/25 season was slightly increased by 165,000 tons month - on - month, a year - on - year decrease of 4.45 million tons. The ending inventory decreased by 2.31 million tons year - on - year to 9.09 million tons, and the stock - to - use ratio was 10.39%. [60] - As of July 20, Canada's rapeseed export volume increased by 151.12% week - on - week to 202,400 tons. As of the same date, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 1.1823 million tons. [61] 3.6. Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - The recent arrival and crushing of domestic soybeans remain at a relatively high level, the supply pattern of soybean meal continues to be loose, and the spot basis is expected to run weakly. [71] - In June 2025, China imported 12.264 million tons of soybeans, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6544 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.15 million tons, an increase of 10.35%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans was 49.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 889,000 tons, an increase of 1.83%. [73] - As of July 18, the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.3055 million tons, and the operating rate was 64.81%. The rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 59,000 tons, and the operating rate this week was 15.72%. [91] - As of July 18, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills was 6.4224 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 152,500 tons, a decrease of 2.32%; the soybean meal inventory was 998,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 112,200 tons, an increase of 12.66%. The rapeseed inventory of coastal oil mills increased by 16,000 tons week - on - week, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased. [103] - As of the week of July 23, the national soybean meal trading volume was 728,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 51,300 tons; the total提货 volume was 936,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,500 tons. [106]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets are under pressure, with domestic soybean meal supply improving and rapeseed meal demand expected to weaken. The overall market is expected to be volatile, and a bearish strategy is recommended for single - sided trading [3][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Soybean Situation**: US soybean futures oscillated this week, affected by supply - demand and soybean oil fluctuations. Old - crop soybeans face little pressure with good exports and some support in crushing. New - crop soybeans are bearish due to smooth planting. South American supply pressure persists despite some improvement in Brazil. Domestic soybean meal supply is improving, and with increasing soybean arrivals, supply pressure is expected to rise, but the current large decline in the futures price limits further downside [3] - **Rapeseed Meal Situation**: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is good, and crushing volume is relatively large. With fewer imported rapeseed arrivals, crushing may decline. As soybean meal supply increases, rapeseed meal demand will weaken, and the market is expected to remain stable [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Adopt a bearish strategy for single - sided trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell a wide - straddle option strategy [5] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean futures oscillated. Old - crop exports are good, with cumulative growth of 12.72% as of May 1st, higher than the USDA's estimate. Crushing profit has weakened, and attention should be paid to the bio - diesel policy. New - crop planting progress is 30% as of May 4th, but export sales are slow, and the futures price may face pressure [9] - **South America**: Brazil's pressure has eased slightly, but with high production and improved Argentine supply, pressure remains. Brazil's harvest is almost complete, but exports and sales have slowed. Argentina's exports and crushing are sufficient, and prices are under pressure. Macro - level impacts from Sino - US and EU - US trade negotiations are limited [12] - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean meal futures oscillated. This week, the oil mill's operating rate increased significantly, and production meets demand. Spot prices in most regions weakened, but some areas remained strong due to low inventory. Demand is good, but spot trading volume is low, mainly in basis trading. With increasing soybean arrivals, supply pressure will increase, and the market will be volatile [15] - **Domestic Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal futures were slightly stronger than soybean meal. The basis spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed. Demand is good, with a weekly average pick - up of about 50,000 tons. Supply is sufficient, but with decreasing imported rapeseed and increasing soybean meal supply, rapeseed meal demand may decline. The basis spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal will be volatile [18] 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes - **International Market**: The report presents data on US soybean sales, export inspections, crushing volume, and profit, as well as Brazilian and Argentine soybean exports and crushing, and foreign basis [21][23][25] - **Macro - level**: It shows exchange rates such as USD/CNH, USD/BRL, and UDS/ARS, and shipping costs from the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina to China, with shipping costs increasing [31][36] - **Supply**: Data on soybean and rapeseed imports and crushing volume are provided, indicating the current supply situation [41] - **Demand**: Data on soybean meal and rapeseed meal pick - up volume are presented, reflecting the demand situation [43] - **Inventory**: Data on soybean, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal inventory are shown, showing the inventory levels [46]