他相信，未来港美息差将逐步收窄，有利香港经济发展。今年以来港股蓬勃发展，日均交投额超过2500 亿港元，投资气氛明显改善，认为在种种利好政策下，预料香港今年经济增长2%至3%，符合政府预 测。 陈铭侨称，最优惠利率的调整属个别银行商业决定，取决于银行资金成本、资产负债表组成及业务策 略，但在上一次2022年的加息周期，美国累计加息幅度达5.25%，香港只跟加0.875%，若美国减息持 续，相信最优惠利率未必跟足。他估计，HIBOR 将跟随美息回落，对企业客户资金成本有帮助。 他续指，在联汇制度下，港息跟随美息走，也会受香港资金供求影响，但最近银行体系结余已跌至约 540亿港元较紧张水平，估计银行同业拆息(HIBOR)目前只会窄幅上落。他预计，1个月拆息年内将维持 在3%至3.5%范围。 智通财经APP获悉，美联储一如市场预期减息0.25%，3家发钞银行亦先后下调最优惠利率0.125%。香港 银行公会署理主席陈铭侨表示，美联储主席鲍威尔称仍要观察数据，市场对12月继续减息的预期降温， 未来美息走向仍存在不确定性。此外，中美两国元首今日会面释放很多正面讯息，并预告稍后时间签署 经贸协议，消除市场一大不明朗因素，认 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) stated that the future pace and magnitude of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve are highly uncertain, which will lead to changes in the Hong Kong interest rate environment [1][3] - Following strong capital inflows in early May, the supply of Hong Kong dollars remained ample, but demand for the currency has decreased, leading to a weakening of the Hong Kong dollar due to carry trades [1][3] - The HKMA noted that the interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the US remains attractive for carry trades, keeping the exchange rate close to the 7.85 HKD to 1 USD level, although recent demand for Hong Kong dollars related to stocks has provided some support for the currency [1][3] Group 2 - The HKMA indicated that the "weak-side convertibility guarantee" was triggered multiple times since late June, with the most recent occurrence on July 31 during the New York trading session [1][3] - The HKMA will buy Hong Kong dollars and sell US dollars according to the linked exchange rate system if the "weak-side convertibility guarantee" is triggered again, which will lead to a decrease in the banking system's surplus and a gradual increase in Hong Kong dollar interbank rates [1][3] - On the same day, three banks in Hong Kong, including HSBC, Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong), and Bank of China (Hong Kong), announced that they would maintain their best lending rates unchanged [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has demonstrated the orderly operation of the linked exchange rate system amid changing market liquidity and persistent interest rate differentials between Hong Kong and the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The HKMA President noted that the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) has seen a significant inflow of funds, with the banking system's HKD surplus rising from approximately HKD 45 billion to over HKD 170 billion, indicating a very ample liquidity situation [1] - The demand for HKD has changed, with a strong demand observed from May to June, but factors such as the peak of dividend payouts and the return of funds from non-local companies have reduced this demand [1] Group 2: Interest Rate and Exchange Rate - The interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the U.S. remains wide, making arbitrage trading profitable and keeping the HKD close to the 7.85 level [2] - The HKMA emphasizes that the primary policy goal of the linked exchange rate system is to maintain the stability of the HKD, rather than targeting interest rates [2]

香港金管局总裁余伟文撰文指，港元流动性短期内变得非常充裕，以致银行间短期拆息显着拉低。他强 调，息率变化基本上反映联汇制度下正常市场行为及反应，从宏观经济角度看，较低息率有利于目前香 港整体经济环境，但未来一段时间港汇及港息走势仍存在较多变数，港美息差扩阔，增加买美元套息的 诱因，以致港汇由5月初的7.75兑1美元，回软至最近的7.82水平。余伟文表示，如果资金持续供过于 求，套息交易的市场力量会令港汇走弱，港元拆息将会回升，甚至可能返回趋近美元息率水平。但过程 需要多长、市场力量的速度及力度，存在很大不确定性。 ...