Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Reserve has announced a 0.25% interest rate cut, marking the second reduction this year, which aligns with market expectations. This has led to a corresponding decrease in Hong Kong's base rate, impacting borrowing costs and potentially stimulating the housing market [1][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The Federal Funds rate target range has been lowered to 3.75% to 4% following the recent cut [1]. - Hong Kong's Monetary Authority has reduced its base rate to 4.25%, with local banks adjusting their prime rates and savings rates accordingly, albeit at a smaller margin [1][6]. - The cumulative interest rate hikes in the U.S. from 2022 to 2023 reached 5.25%, while Hong Kong's banks only increased rates by 0.875% [1]. Group 2: Impact on Housing Market - The reduction in interest rates is expected to lower borrowing costs, easing the financial burden on homebuyers and enhancing their purchasing power, particularly for first-time buyers [1][2]. - For a mortgage of 5 million HKD over 30 years, the monthly payment decreases by approximately 344 HKD with the new interest rate of 3.25%, making it easier for middle-class families to meet bank mortgage requirements [2]. - The rental market is also benefiting, with rental yields in Hong Kong surpassing those in major mainland cities, attracting more investment [2][3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The low-interest environment is anticipated to support the recovery of the Hong Kong property market, with rising rental indices further enhancing investment attractiveness [2][3]. - Recent sales of new properties have been strong, indicating improved buyer confidence following the interest rate cuts [3][4]. - However, the secondary market has seen a decline in transactions as buyers shift focus to new developments, suggesting a potential imbalance in market activity [4][5]. Group 4: Predictions and Economic Indicators - Experts predict that property prices may see a slight increase of 2-3% in 2025, with a potential recovery of 5% next year, although current market conditions may limit significant price rebounds [5][6]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in December is being closely monitored for further interest rate decisions, which could influence Hong Kong's economic landscape [5][6]. - The consensus among industry analysts is that the interest rate reduction cycle in Hong Kong may be nearing its end, with banks unlikely to follow further U.S. cuts due to high funding costs [6][7].

他相信，未来港美息差将逐步收窄，有利香港经济发展。今年以来港股蓬勃发展，日均交投额超过2500 亿港元，投资气氛明显改善，认为在种种利好政策下，预料香港今年经济增长2%至3%，符合政府预 测。 陈铭侨称，最优惠利率的调整属个别银行商业决定，取决于银行资金成本、资产负债表组成及业务策 略，但在上一次2022年的加息周期，美国累计加息幅度达5.25%，香港只跟加0.875%，若美国减息持 续，相信最优惠利率未必跟足。他估计，HIBOR 将跟随美息回落，对企业客户资金成本有帮助。 他续指，在联汇制度下，港息跟随美息走，也会受香港资金供求影响，但最近银行体系结余已跌至约 540亿港元较紧张水平，估计银行同业拆息(HIBOR)目前只会窄幅上落。他预计，1个月拆息年内将维持 在3%至3.5%范围。 智通财经APP获悉，美联储一如市场预期减息0.25%，3家发钞银行亦先后下调最优惠利率0.125%。香港 银行公会署理主席陈铭侨表示，美联储主席鲍威尔称仍要观察数据，市场对12月继续减息的预期降温， 未来美息走向仍存在不确定性。此外，中美两国元首今日会面释放很多正面讯息，并预告稍后时间签署 经贸协议，消除市场一大不明朗因素，认 ...

Group 1: Hong Kong Real Estate Market - Citi expects Hong Kong residential prices to plateau in the second half of 2025, with a need for long-term supply-demand balance improvement to support price recovery [1] - Anticipated transaction units are expected to exceed completed units by 2027, with an estimated annual demand for private housing at approximately 20,600 units, benefiting from an influx of around 180,000 skilled professionals and their families [1] - The bank notes that investment demand may take time to recover, as it often depends on price expectations and stable long-term interest rates [1] Group 2: Dollar and Economic Outlook - The U.S. job market may face downward risks in the coming months, potentially leading to increased market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could weaken the dollar [1] - The basic forecast indicates a soft landing for the global economy in the second half of this year, with U.S. economic data underperforming, possibly resulting in a final round of dollar depreciation [1] - However, the dollar's weakness is viewed as cyclical rather than structural, with expectations for recovery by 2026 [1] Group 3: Gold Market - Gold prices may remain strong until the first quarter of 2026, supported by cyclical factors such as a weakening U.S. labor market and structural concerns regarding U.S. debt sustainability and the dollar's status [2] - Global gold-related consumption is projected to exceed $600 billion, accounting for 0.5% of GDP, marking the highest level in the past 50 years [2] - The basic forecast for gold prices is $3,800 per ounce in the next 0-3 months and $3,000 per ounce in the next 6-12 months [2] Group 4: Interest Rates - The prime interest rate may have limited room for further cuts, with an anticipated reduction of 0.125% [2] - The 3-month Hong Kong interbank offered rate (HIBOR) is expected to decline, with limited upward potential, potentially falling to a range of 2.6% to 2.8% in the fourth quarter of this year [2]

Group 1 - The number of negative equity cases in Hong Kong decreased to 37,806 in Q2 2025, down 7.2% from the previous quarter, with the total amount involved at HKD 190.16 billion, a decrease of 7.6% [1] - The property market showed signs of recovery following the announcement of stamp duty adjustments in February, with the private residential price index rising for three consecutive months [1] - The number of new mortgage insurance applications in the first half of the year was 3,483, a decrease of 37.1% year-on-year, marking the lowest level in nearly nine years [1] Group 2 - The delinquency rate for mortgages overdue by more than three months remains low at 0.21%, indicating that most homeowners maintain a stable repayment ability [1] - Expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in Q4 may lead to a decrease in Hong Kong's interbank rates, which could stimulate further economic recovery and boost the property market [2] - If the property market continues to stabilize in the second half of the year, there is potential for further reduction in negative equity cases [3]