智通财经APP获悉，美联储凌晨宣布今年首次议息结果，维持联邦基金利率于3.5%至3.75%不变，符合 市场预期。具指标性的汇丰银行宣布维持最优惠利率(P)于5%不变，预料其他银行将陆续跟随。中原按 揭董事总经理王美凤表示，香港最优惠利率P已返回加息前最低水平，一般活期存息亦已返回零水平， 银行基本上不会单边减P的情况下相信减P周期已完成，料今年最优惠利率P维持现有处于最低水平，P 不变但年内港元拆息HIBOR有机会有所回落。 5月份美国即将有新美联储主席上任，值得留意继任者是否推动偏向较宽松政策延续减息，但预期今年 美息仍有下调空间，美息续降有利香港拆息进一步回落，虽然拆息回落步伐料温和，香港以H按为主流 的实际按息仍会处于封顶息水平3.25%一段时间，但年内拆息将有所回落有利银行纾缓资金成本，在今 年楼市向好银行按揭取态积极时期，拆息回落有利推动银行增加按揭优惠。 王美凤又指，息率不变下，目前按息主要维持于3.25%，较2024年9月减息周期前的4.125%已累积回落 0.875%，现水平已低于30年平均按息(约3.78%)，月供减幅达一成，对置业及供楼人士而言，供楼负担 已大幅纾缓。按照现时市场H按计划( ...

免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 观点网讯：1月29日，经络按揭转介首席副总裁曹德明在最新展望中指出，香港银行同业拆息 （HIBOR）上半年将大致徘徊于2厘至3厘区间，与按息挂钩的H按业主短期内仍需以封顶息率3.25厘供 楼。 曹德明表示，尽管美联储维持基准利率于3.5厘至3.75厘区间，汇丰银行亦宣布最优惠利率保持5厘不 变，但香港银行体系总结余仍约538亿港元，HIBOR回落空间受限。他补充，除非大量资金流入令 HIBOR跌穿1.95厘，否则实际按息及月供难再下降。近期部分银行已积极争取上半年按揭业务，上调回 赠及优惠吸引优质客户，预计2026年按揭市场随楼市平稳向上。 来源：观点地产网 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong's deposit interest rates have fallen to zero, limiting banks' ability to further reduce their prime rates, as stated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's Vice President, Yueng Kwok-hang [1] Group 1: Interest Rates and Banking Strategy - Banks are advised to avoid further narrowing their net interest margins and to maintain a prudent strategy from a risk management perspective [1] - The slight increase in the non-performing loan ratio to 1.98% in the third quarter of last year indicates a decline in the credit quality of local enterprises, including commercial real estate loans [1] Group 2: Credit Quality Concerns - There is uncertainty regarding whether the credit quality in the commercial real estate sector has reached its bottom, with ongoing challenges highlighted [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Reserve has announced a 0.25% interest rate cut, marking the second reduction this year, which aligns with market expectations. This has led to a corresponding decrease in Hong Kong's base rate, impacting borrowing costs and potentially stimulating the housing market [1][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The Federal Funds rate target range has been lowered to 3.75% to 4% following the recent cut [1]. - Hong Kong's Monetary Authority has reduced its base rate to 4.25%, with local banks adjusting their prime rates and savings rates accordingly, albeit at a smaller margin [1][6]. - The cumulative interest rate hikes in the U.S. from 2022 to 2023 reached 5.25%, while Hong Kong's banks only increased rates by 0.875% [1]. Group 2: Impact on Housing Market - The reduction in interest rates is expected to lower borrowing costs, easing the financial burden on homebuyers and enhancing their purchasing power, particularly for first-time buyers [1][2]. - For a mortgage of 5 million HKD over 30 years, the monthly payment decreases by approximately 344 HKD with the new interest rate of 3.25%, making it easier for middle-class families to meet bank mortgage requirements [2]. - The rental market is also benefiting, with rental yields in Hong Kong surpassing those in major mainland cities, attracting more investment [2][3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The low-interest environment is anticipated to support the recovery of the Hong Kong property market, with rising rental indices further enhancing investment attractiveness [2][3]. - Recent sales of new properties have been strong, indicating improved buyer confidence following the interest rate cuts [3][4]. - However, the secondary market has seen a decline in transactions as buyers shift focus to new developments, suggesting a potential imbalance in market activity [4][5]. Group 4: Predictions and Economic Indicators - Experts predict that property prices may see a slight increase of 2-3% in 2025, with a potential recovery of 5% next year, although current market conditions may limit significant price rebounds [5][6]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in December is being closely monitored for further interest rate decisions, which could influence Hong Kong's economic landscape [5][6]. - The consensus among industry analysts is that the interest rate reduction cycle in Hong Kong may be nearing its end, with banks unlikely to follow further U.S. cuts due to high funding costs [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 0.25% as expected, while three issuing banks have also reduced their prime rates by 0.125%. The market's expectation for further rate cuts in December has cooled, indicating uncertainty in future interest rate trends [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates aligns with market expectations, impacting the prime rates of local banks [1]. - The adjustment of the prime rate is a commercial decision by individual banks, influenced by their funding costs and business strategies [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Positive signals from the recent meeting between the leaders of China and the U.S. suggest a potential signing of a trade agreement, which may alleviate market uncertainties and inflation pressures, supporting a more accommodative monetary policy [1]. - The Hong Kong banking system's liquidity has tightened, with interbank liquidity falling to approximately HKD 54 billion, leading to expectations of narrow fluctuations in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) [1]. - The average daily trading volume in Hong Kong's stock market has exceeded HKD 250 billion this year, indicating improved investor sentiment and a projected economic growth of 2% to 3% for Hong Kong, in line with government forecasts [1]. Group 3: Future Projections - HIBOR is expected to follow the downward trend of U.S. interest rates, which will benefit corporate clients by reducing their funding costs [2]. - The interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the U.S. is anticipated to narrow gradually, which is favorable for Hong Kong's economic development [1].

Group 1: Hong Kong Real Estate Market - Citi expects Hong Kong residential prices to plateau in the second half of 2025, with a need for long-term supply-demand balance improvement to support price recovery [1] - Anticipated transaction units are expected to exceed completed units by 2027, with an estimated annual demand for private housing at approximately 20,600 units, benefiting from an influx of around 180,000 skilled professionals and their families [1] - The bank notes that investment demand may take time to recover, as it often depends on price expectations and stable long-term interest rates [1] Group 2: Dollar and Economic Outlook - The U.S. job market may face downward risks in the coming months, potentially leading to increased market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could weaken the dollar [1] - The basic forecast indicates a soft landing for the global economy in the second half of this year, with U.S. economic data underperforming, possibly resulting in a final round of dollar depreciation [1] - However, the dollar's weakness is viewed as cyclical rather than structural, with expectations for recovery by 2026 [1] Group 3: Gold Market - Gold prices may remain strong until the first quarter of 2026, supported by cyclical factors such as a weakening U.S. labor market and structural concerns regarding U.S. debt sustainability and the dollar's status [2] - Global gold-related consumption is projected to exceed $600 billion, accounting for 0.5% of GDP, marking the highest level in the past 50 years [2] - The basic forecast for gold prices is $3,800 per ounce in the next 0-3 months and $3,000 per ounce in the next 6-12 months [2] Group 4: Interest Rates - The prime interest rate may have limited room for further cuts, with an anticipated reduction of 0.125% [2] - The 3-month Hong Kong interbank offered rate (HIBOR) is expected to decline, with limited upward potential, potentially falling to a range of 2.6% to 2.8% in the fourth quarter of this year [2]

Group 1 - The number of negative equity cases in Hong Kong decreased to 37,806 in Q2 2025, down 7.2% from the previous quarter, with the total amount involved at HKD 190.16 billion, a decrease of 7.6% [1] - The property market showed signs of recovery following the announcement of stamp duty adjustments in February, with the private residential price index rising for three consecutive months [1] - The number of new mortgage insurance applications in the first half of the year was 3,483, a decrease of 37.1% year-on-year, marking the lowest level in nearly nine years [1] Group 2 - The delinquency rate for mortgages overdue by more than three months remains low at 0.21%, indicating that most homeowners maintain a stable repayment ability [1] - Expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in Q4 may lead to a decrease in Hong Kong's interbank rates, which could stimulate further economic recovery and boost the property market [2] - If the property market continues to stabilize in the second half of the year, there is potential for further reduction in negative equity cases [3]