Report Overview - The report is a daily risk management report on polypropylene, dated August 14, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Polypropylene (PP) prices currently lack a directional driver and mainly follow macro - sentiment. In the short - term, the PP supply - demand balance can be maintained, but there is significant inventory pressure looking towards the 01 contract. Future focus should be on demand and cost changes [3] Summary by Directory Price Forecast - The monthly price range for polypropylene is predicted to be between 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 8.48%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 6.7% [2] Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 25% of PP2509 futures at 7150 - 7200 yuan/ton to lock in profits and sell 50% of PP2510C7200 call options at 30 - 60 to collect premiums and reduce costs [2] Procurement Management - For low regular inventory and procurement based on orders, buy 50% of PP2509 futures at 7000 - 7050 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs and sell 75% of PP2510P7000 put options at 30 - 60 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if prices fall [2] Core Contradictions - The polyolefin market follows macro - sentiment and coking coal prices. PP supply is high due to previous plant startups and PDH plant returns during the maintenance season. Demand has stable downstream开工率, with low raw material and finished - product inventories and speculative restocking willingness, indicating demand elasticity [3] Bullish Factors - Inventory is at a neutral level, and there is an expectation of improved demand [4] Bearish Factors - Two plants in Daxie are expected to start production in August, with multiple plants starting up from June - August, significantly increasing PP production capacity. PDH profits have recovered, and marginal plants are returning. Exports are seasonally weak, and the export window is closed [5] Daily Data Futures Prices and Spreads - The polypropylene main - contract basis was - 35 yuan/ton on August 14, 2025, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [6] - PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts all showed price declines on August 14 compared to the previous day [8] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China all decreased slightly on August 14 compared to the previous day [8] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - The spreads between different non - standard and standard polypropylene products showed various changes on August 14 compared to the previous day [8] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Brent crude oil prices remained stable, while US propane prices increased slightly. Different PP production methods had varying profit changes [8]

Report Overview - Report Title: Polypropylene Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: August 7, 2025 - Analysts: Dai Yifan, Gu Hengye [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The recent supply-demand pattern of PP has shown limited overall changes. The supply side faces pressure from new device commissioning and the recovery of PDH profits, while the demand side remains weak, and the supply-demand imbalance cannot be fundamentally alleviated in the short term, keeping PP in a weak pattern. However, recently, due to more disturbances from macro sentiment and coking coal prices, PP has generally shown a volatile pattern [3] Summary by Directory Polypropylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 7000 - 7200. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 8.48%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over 3 years is 6.7% [2] Polypropylene Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For high product inventory and concerns about price drops, shorting PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the 7150 - 7200 range can lock in profits. Selling the PP2509C7300 call option with a 50% hedging ratio in the 10 - 50 range can collect premiums to reduce costs [2] - **Procurement Management**: For low regular procurement inventory and the need to purchase based on orders, buying PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio in the 7000 - 7050 range can lock in procurement costs. Selling the PP2509P7000 put option with a 75% hedging ratio in the 10 - 50 range can collect premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2] Core Contradictions - Supply - side pressure comes from new device commissioning and PDH profit recovery. Multiple devices were commissioned in the middle of the year, and two Daxie devices are expected to be commissioned in early August, increasing supply. The recovery of PDH production profits has led to the return of device operation, further intensifying supply - side pressure. Demand is weak, and there is no strong driver for demand growth [3] Bullish Factors - The "anti - involution" policy has driven up coking coal prices, providing cost support for polyolefins. Inventory is at a neutral level [4] Bearish Factors - Two Daxie devices are expected to be commissioned in early August, and multiple devices have been commissioned from June to August, significantly increasing PP production capacity. PDH profits have recovered, and marginal devices are gradually returning. Exports are seasonally weak, and the export window is currently closed [5] Polypropylene Daily Report Table - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On August 7, 2025, the polypropylene main - contract basis was - 15 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 3 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 7 yuan/ton. There are also detailed price and spread data for different contracts and time spreads [6][8][9] - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are provided, along with regional spread data [8][9] - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: Spreads between various non - standard and standard polypropylene products are given [8][9] - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: Prices of Brent crude oil, US propane, northwest coal, and East China methanol, as well as processing profits for different production methods, are presented [8][9]

Report Information - Report Title: Polypropylene Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 1, 2025 - Analysts: Dai Yifan (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0015428), Gu Hengye (Futures Practitioner License No.: F03143348) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC Permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Recent macro sentiment has cooled, and polyolefins have given back some gains. The PP fundamentals have not changed much recently. Although the current PP plant maintenance rate is still high, bringing marginal reduction, the large number of new plant startups has led to new supply increments. So, even during the peak plant maintenance season, PP production remains at a high level. On the demand side, as the downstream is still in the off - season, overall demand is weak. In general, the supply - demand pressure of PP has not been fundamentally alleviated, and the upside space is still relatively limited. Future attention should be paid to the downstream demand situation of PP [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polypropylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 7000 - 7300 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 8.48%, and the current volatility's historical percentile (3 - year) is 6.7% [2] Polypropylene Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short PP2509 futures according to inventory, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 7250 - 7300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell the call option PP2509C7300 with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 10 - 50 to collect premiums and reduce costs [2] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy PP2509 futures at present with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 7000 - 7050 yuan/ton to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell the put option PP2509P7000 with a hedging ratio of 75% and a recommended entry range of 10 - 50 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. If the price drops, they can lock in the spot purchase price [2] Core Contradictions - Macro sentiment cooling has led to polyolefins giving back gains. PP supply remains high due to new plant startups despite high maintenance rates, and demand is weak as the downstream is in the off - season. The supply - demand pressure is not fundamentally alleviated, and the upside space is limited [3] Negative Factors - Two sets of equipment in Daxie are expected to be put into operation in early August. Multiple plants will be put into operation from June to August, significantly increasing PP production capacity. PDH profits have recovered, and marginal plants are gradually returning. Exports are seasonally weak, and the export window is currently closed [4] Polypropylene Daily Data Futures Prices and Spreads - The basis of the polypropylene main contract on August 1, 2025, was not provided; on July 31, it was - 8 yuan/ton, and on July 25, it was - 81 yuan/ton. The daily change was 8 yuan/ton, and the weekly change was 81 yuan/ton. The prices of PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts decreased compared to the previous day and week. The month - to - month spreads of PP1 - 5, PP5 - 9, and PP9 - 1 also changed [5][8] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China decreased compared to the previous day and week. The regional spreads between East China - North China and East China - South China also changed [8] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - The spreads between various non - standard and standard polypropylene products changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [8] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Brent crude oil price remained unchanged from the previous day but increased compared to a week ago. The US propane price, Northwest coal price, and other upstream prices changed. The processing profits of oil - based, coal - based, and other PP production methods also changed [8]