1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The polyethylene market is currently in a state of weakening market sentiment and a downward - trending market. The overall market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend, with suggestions to sell call options [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions - This week's polyethylene production decreased, with domestic production dropping from 63.25 million tons last week to 61.28 million tons, a decrease of 1.97 million tons. Next week, production may slightly increase as some devices resume production after maintenance. Import and export volumes remained stable this week, with imports at 25.68 million tons and exports at 2.50 million tons. Apparent demand decreased significantly from 84.20 million tons last week to 80.86 million tons, a decrease of 3.34 million tons. There was a slight inventory build - up this week, with total inventory rising from 101.13 million tons to 104.73 million tons, and it is expected to continue to build up slightly next week [5]. 3.2 Polyethylene Industry Situation 3.2.1 Supply - In terms of production, although there are many upstream maintenance devices, the current output is still relatively high, and the upstream supply of goods is relatively sufficient. In 2025, new production capacity will continue to be released, such as the production capacity of Inner Mongolia Baofeng, Exxon (Huizhou), etc. [7][20]. 3.2.2 Cost and Profit - Raw material prices are in a weakening state. Crude oil prices fluctuated, rising from $65.50 last week to $66.37, and coal prices decreased from 690 to 681. PE costs have been fluctuating recently, with oil - made PE costs rising from 7803 to 7868, and coal - made PE costs remaining unchanged at 6669. Upstream profits are expected to weaken next week, with oil - chemical comprehensive profits dropping from - 1595 to - 1644, and weighted profits of PE by production capacity dropping from - 654 to - 697 [6]. 3.2.3 Market Conditions of Up, Middle, and Downstream - Upstream: Although there are many maintenance devices, the output is still high, and the upstream is actively selling goods. - Middle - stream: The middle - stream's sales situation has deteriorated, with fewer purchases from downstream and active sales by spot - futures arbitrageurs. - Downstream: This week's trading volume was average, with downstream mainly purchasing as needed. The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, which provides some support [7]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - The PE spot market price fluctuated weakly, and the intraday basis quotes fluctuated. On Friday, the North China basis quote was around 01 - 50, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average. The inter - month spread was in a state of fluctuation, and the far - month LL - PP spread is recommended to be temporarily observed. The import profit has deteriorated [49][6]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - Strategy: In terms of trading strategies, a weak and volatile trend is expected in the short - term, and it is recommended to sell call options [7].

市场情绪消退，转入偏弱震荡 中泰期货聚乙烯产业链周报 2025年8月3日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 基差及价差 2 聚乙烯产业情况 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 聚乙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 1、聚乙烯综述 | | | 上周 | 本周 | 周环比 | 下周 | 下下周 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 产量 | 国产量 | 61.51 | 61.18 | -0.32 | 65.14 | 63.81 | 本周产量小幅度减少，下周装置检修复 产较多，产量可能会继续增加。 | | （万吨） | 检修损失量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The polyethylene market has shown an emotional rebound, but there is a need to beware of callback risks. In the short - term, there is a rebound, and it is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options. The LL - PP spread is advised to be temporarily exited for observation [1][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions - This week, the polyethylene production increased slightly. Next week, many devices are expected to resume production after maintenance, and the production may continue to increase. The import volume remained stable, and the main reason for the stable import was the reduction of US goods in the early stage. The apparent demand was worse than expected this week, and there was a slight inventory accumulation instead of the expected de - stocking. If the demand improves next week, there may be a slight de - stocking [5]. 3.2 Polyethylene Industry Situation 3.2.1 Supply - **Production**: This week's production was 60.91 million tons, a slight increase from last week's 60.59 million tons. Next week, it is expected to reach 62.16 million tons, and the week after next, 62.95 million tons [5]. - **Import and Export**: The import volume was 28.89 million tons this week, the same as last week, and is expected to remain the same in the next two weeks. The export volume was 2.50 million tons this week, unchanged from last week and expected to remain so [5]. 3.2.2 Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Prices**: Crude oil prices were in a shock, with this week's price at 69.52, down 0.84 from last week's 70.36. Coal prices showed a weakening trend, rising from 623 last week to 630 this week [6]. - **Cost**: The cost of oil - based PE decreased from 8224 last week to 8159 this week, while the cost of coal - based PE remained unchanged at 6395 [6]. - **Profit**: The comprehensive profit of the oil - chemical end is expected to strengthen first and then weaken next week. The profit of coal - based PE weakened, with this week's profit at 395, down 80 from last week's 475. The import profit of LL weakened, with this week's profit at - 489, down 39 from last week's - 449 [6]. 3.2.3 Inventory - **Total Inventory**: This week, the total inventory was 106.59 million tons, an increase of 5.53 million tons from last week. It is expected to be 99.52 million tons next week and 97.58 million tons the week after next [5]. - **Upstream Inventory**: The upstream inventory increased from 49.31 million tons last week to 52.93 million tons this week. Among them, the inventory of "Two - Oil" enterprises increased from 40.00 million tons to 42.90 million tons, and the inventory of coal - chemical enterprises increased from 9.31 million tons to 10.03 million tons [5]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: The mid - stream inventory increased from 51.75 million tons last week to 53.66 million tons this week [5]. 3.2.4 Upstream, Mid - stream and Downstream Views - **Upstream**: Upstream maintenance devices have started to resume production. Currently, upstream supplies are relatively sufficient, and upstream inventory has increased month - on - month, so there is no large - scale price increase for now. However, the spot - futures arbitrage transactions are relatively good [7]. - **Mid - stream**: The mid - stream shipment situation has deteriorated. The recent price fluctuations have led to a decline in spot transactions to the downstream [7]. - **Downstream**: The continuity of downstream replenishment is poor. This week, the transactions deteriorated, and the replenishment willingness continued to decline. However, after the price increase on Friday night, the downstream's willingness to purchase slightly increased [7]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis fluctuated and strengthened this week. The basis in North China increased from - 70 last week to - 30 this week, while the basis in South China weakened from 110 last week to 80 this week [6]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The inter - month spread fluctuated and weakened. The 1 - 5 month spread decreased from 36 last week to 23 this week, and the 9 - 1 month spread decreased from 13 last week to - 27 this week [6]. - **Variety Spread**: The HD - LL spread in North China increased from 260 last week to 270 this week, and the LD - LL spread in North China increased from 1880 last week to 2150 this week. The LL - PP spread is advised to be temporarily exited for observation [6][7].