Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - In October, the polyethylene market was characterized by ample supply, weak demand, and price pressure, with the supply-demand relationship dominating the overall trend. In November, the supply is expected to increase, the demand may have marginal improvement but the increase is limited, high inventory remains a core constraint, and the market is likely to continue its weak and volatile trend [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - In October, the total domestic polyethylene supply increased, with production rising both year-on-year and month-on-month, and different varieties showing growth. Maintenance losses decreased but with variety differentiation, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly while the regional rates generally declined. New capacity plans and the resumption of previously shut-down plants in November will further increase supply pressure [7][8][5]. - In terms of inventory, at the end of October, there was a differentiated pattern of decreasing production enterprise inventory and slightly increasing social inventory. High inventory is a key factor suppressing the market, and if demand improvement falls short of expectations, inventory accumulation pressure may persist [12][13][5]. - In October, the import prices of polyethylene decreased across the board, the overall import volume rebounded but with different performances among varieties, and the import profits of different varieties showed differentiation [15][16][17]. Demand Side - In October, the overall downstream operating rate of polyethylene increased slightly, with differentiated performance in different sectors. The demand for agricultural films increased significantly while that for packaging films declined slightly. The overall demand was weak, and enterprises mainly made rigid purchases. In November, there is room for marginal improvement in demand, but the growth may be limited due to macro - economic uncertainties [4][5][18]. Cost and Profit - In October, the cost of oil - based polyethylene production decreased, and the loss narrowed; the cost of coal - based production increased, and the profit margin was compressed. The profit of oil - based enterprises was still in the loss range but the loss decreased, while the profit of coal - based enterprises decreased significantly [4][22][26]. - In October, the price differences between polyethylene and related varieties showed a differentiated trend. The average price difference between PE - PVC:01 contract narrowed, while that between PE - PP:01 contract widened [27]. Summary - In October, the polyethylene market was characterized by ample supply, weak demand, and price pressure. In November, the supply pressure will increase, the demand may improve marginally, high inventory will continue to suppress the market, and the cost support is weak. The market is likely to continue its weak and volatile trend [4][5][29].

2025 年 7 月 7 日 LLDPE：短期偏弱震荡 陈嘉昕投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2509 | 7282 | -0.15% | 301,296 | 4549 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 0 9合约基差 | -82 | | -94 | | | | 0 9-0 1合约价差 | 3 9 | | 2 2 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | | | | 华北 | 7200 | | 7190 | | | | 华东 | 7230 | | 7200 | | | | 华南 | 7380 | | 7380 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 LLDPE 市场价格小幅涨跌，价格波幅在 20-100 元/吨。期货高开震荡，尾盘收跌，石化企业价格多数 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 19 日 LLDPE：中期震荡市 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 【市场状况分析】 宏观方面，中美阶段性和解，情绪利多。短期塑料制品抢出口支撑市场，使得短期聚乙烯走势偏强。但 今年聚乙烯供应投产压力仍较大，库存方面线性和高压库存持续上升，处于高产量、高库存的格局。 塑料制品出口：2024 年中国出口美国塑料制品金额占塑料出口总金额 16.75%。中美阶段性和解，塑料 制品对美出口短期将环比回升。 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7236 | L2509 | | -1.17% | 299,796 | -9489 | | 昨日价差 | | | | | 前日价差 | | 基差月差变化 114 | 0 9合约基差 | | | | 9 2 | | 6 2 | 0 9-0 1合约价差 | | | | 8 1 | | 昨日价格 重要现货价格 | | | （元 ...