Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's foreign exchange market maintained strong resilience and vitality in September, with cross - border capital flows remaining active and balanced, and supply and demand in the foreign exchange market being relatively balanced. The total scale of China's foreign - related payments and receipts in the first three quarters reached a record high [1]. - The prices of crude oil, precious metals, and stock indices showed different trends. Crude oil prices were difficult to reverse the downward trend; precious metals experienced significant adjustments at high levels; stock indices were about to enter a direction - selection stage [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: As of October 21, the total debt of the US federal government exceeded $38 trillion for the first time, just over two months after reaching $37 trillion in mid - August [5]. - **Domestic News**: In September, the unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group in urban China was 17.7%, 7.2% for the 25 - 29 age group, and 3.9% for the 30 - 59 age group [6]. - **Industry News**: In the first three quarters, the total transport turnover, passenger volume, and cargo volume of the civil aviation industry were 1220.3 billion ton - kilometers, 580 million passengers, and 739,500 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 10.3%, 5.2%, and 14% [7]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.53%, the European STOXX 50 index decreased by 0.47%, and the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.10%. ICE Brent crude oil increased by 4.36%, while London gold and silver decreased by 0.64% and 0.46% respectively. Other varieties also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [10]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial Products** - **Stock Indices**: After a high - level shock in September, stock indices were about to enter a direction - selection stage. The domestic liquidity environment was expected to remain loose, and external funds were also likely to flow in. The market style might return to value in the fourth quarter [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank was expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, and there might be reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, which would support the price of treasury bond futures [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 1.65% at night, but the downward trend of oil prices was difficult to reverse [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell 0.13% at night. The operating rate of domestic coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and coastal methanol inventories continued to rise. The methanol market fluctuated more due to various uncertainties [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fluctuated on Wednesday. Supply pressure might gradually emerge, and demand support was relatively limited. The market was expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. After continuous declines, the market sentiment gradually stabilized [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures closed slightly up, and soda ash futures rebounded slightly. Both were in the process of inventory digestion, and the market was still cautious [18][19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices adjusted significantly at high levels. After a rapid rise, there were profit - taking positions, and the driving factors weakened, leading to sharp price adjustments [3][20]. - **Copper**: The supply of copper concentrates remained tight, and the smelting output continued to grow. The Indonesian mine accident might lead to a supply - demand gap in the global copper market, supporting copper prices in the long term [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The smelting output was expected to continue to increase. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices might be weaker than foreign ones, and the overall price might fluctuate within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply increased, demand showed some growth, and inventory decreased. The futures price fluctuated and rose. It was expected to remain volatile in the short term, and the downward adjustment space was limited [23]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The double - coking futures oscillated at night. The steel price and demand showed some improvement, but the possibility of blast furnace production cuts due to shrinking profits could not be ignored. The short - term market was expected to oscillate at a high level [24][25]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices stabilized. The demand for iron ore was supported, and the global iron ore shipment decreased recently. The port inventory decreased rapidly. The market was expected to be strong and fluctuate upward [26]. - **Steel**: Steel prices were stable and improving. The supply pressure was gradually emerging, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not significant. The market was expected to be bullish in the medium term [27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated and rose at night. The US soybean export inspection volume was higher than expected, and the Brazilian soybean planting progress was good. The domestic market was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats prices were weak at night. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil increased, but the market was under pressure due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade [29]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices were weak at night. The global sugar market entered the inventory accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar market was expected to fluctuate in the short term [30]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices oscillated. The US cotton market was in a short - term oscillation. The domestic cotton market was under pressure from weak demand, but the price was supported by factors such as slow harvesting progress and rising purchase prices. It was expected to be strong and fluctuate in the short term [31]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index was strongly oscillating. Maersk's price increase in November indicated its intention to support prices. The market continued to bet on the year - end peak season, and the upward driving force was accumulating. The far - month contract was slowly recovering, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiation [32].