| 贵金属日评20251202: 日本央行加息预期抽走便宜钱或使贵金属价格有所调整 | 较昨日变化 | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-11-28 | 2025-12-01 | 2025-11-25 | 收盘价 | 963. 28 | 9.36 | 16. 78 | 953. 92 | 946. 50 | | | | | | | | 成交重 | 189713.00 | 153, 266. 00 | 43, 290.00 | 342979.00 | 299689.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 205325.00 | 202129.00 | 3.196.00 | 24, 156. 00 | 181169.00 | | | | 库存(干克) | 90873.00 | 90873.00 | 90423.00 | 0. 00 | 450. 00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘价 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core View - Multiple Fed officials' hawkish remarks have increased the uncertainty of future expectations, causing short - term adjustments in precious metal prices. However, factors such as global debt expansion, fiscal deficit, central bank gold - buying, and geopolitical risks may support precious metal prices in the medium - to - long term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 947.98 yuan/gram, with a daily change of - 10.69 yuan and a weekly change of 14.96 yuan. The trading volume was 45,922, with a daily decrease of 20,686 and a weekly decrease of 5,282. The open interest decreased by 16,690 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price of the futures active contract was 12,351 yuan/ten - gram, with a daily change of - 237 yuan and a weekly change of 632 yuan. The trading volume was 1,026,209, with a daily decrease of 104,492 and a weekly increase of 10,299 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price of the active contract was 4,174.50 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of 99.60 dollars and a weekly change of - 90.10 dollars. The trading volume was 332,490, with a daily increase of 30,017 and a weekly increase of 148,845 [1]. - **International Gold and Silver**: London gold spot price was 4,071.10 dollars/ounce, down 124.55 dollars from the previous day. SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,044 tons, an increase of 3.65 tons from the previous day [1]. 2. Important Information - Fed hawks oppose a December rate cut, and as of last Friday, the market's expectation of a December rate cut has dropped to 40%. The US will release important economic data on November 20 (September non - farm payrolls) and November 26 (Fed - preferred indicator PCB) [1]. 3. Trading Strategy - Wait for the price to fall before placing long orders. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,850 - 3,950 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4,180 - 4,384 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 870 - 890 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 960 - 1,000 yuan/gram [1].

Core Viewpoints - The gold market is likely entering a phase of wide-ranging high-level fluctuations, requiring time to digest emotional impacts [1] - Weakening driving factors have led to continuous adjustments in precious metals after significant price increases [2] - The next potential upward movement in gold prices may not occur until 2026, following a period of consolidation [3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Hai Tong Futures indicates that substantial profit-taking is driving the decline in precious metal prices, with a notable drop in Shanghai Futures Exchange gold futures positions suggesting many long positions are exiting [1] - The recent U.S. CPI data being lower than expected has marginally increased the likelihood of interest rate cuts, contributing to the downward pressure on gold prices [1] - The overall sentiment in the market is weak, with expectations of a prolonged period of high-level fluctuations in gold prices [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Shenwan Hongyuan Futures notes that the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and lack of economic data guidance are impacting market sentiment [2] - The increase in global central bank gold purchases reflects a growing recognition of gold as a safe-haven asset amid deteriorating fiscal conditions and rising distrust in the financial system [2] - The ADP's new weekly employment data indicates a modest increase in private sector jobs, but the ongoing government shutdown continues to create uncertainty [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen highlights that gold prices may have reached a peak this year, with a critical support level at $3,846 per ounce [3] - Trade Nation's David Morrison points out that recent technical indicators suggest a risk of short-term declines in gold prices, with a need for prices to rise above $4,100 per ounce to establish a new bullish momentum [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's foreign exchange market maintained strong resilience and vitality in September, with cross - border capital flows remaining active and balanced, and supply and demand in the foreign exchange market being relatively balanced. The total scale of China's foreign - related payments and receipts in the first three quarters reached a record high [1]. - The prices of crude oil, precious metals, and stock indices showed different trends. Crude oil prices were difficult to reverse the downward trend; precious metals experienced significant adjustments at high levels; stock indices were about to enter a direction - selection stage [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: As of October 21, the total debt of the US federal government exceeded $38 trillion for the first time, just over two months after reaching $37 trillion in mid - August [5]. - **Domestic News**: In September, the unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group in urban China was 17.7%, 7.2% for the 25 - 29 age group, and 3.9% for the 30 - 59 age group [6]. - **Industry News**: In the first three quarters, the total transport turnover, passenger volume, and cargo volume of the civil aviation industry were 1220.3 billion ton - kilometers, 580 million passengers, and 739,500 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 10.3%, 5.2%, and 14% [7]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.53%, the European STOXX 50 index decreased by 0.47%, and the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.10%. ICE Brent crude oil increased by 4.36%, while London gold and silver decreased by 0.64% and 0.46% respectively. Other varieties also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [10]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial Products** - **Stock Indices**: After a high - level shock in September, stock indices were about to enter a direction - selection stage. The domestic liquidity environment was expected to remain loose, and external funds were also likely to flow in. The market style might return to value in the fourth quarter [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank was expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, and there might be reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, which would support the price of treasury bond futures [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 1.65% at night, but the downward trend of oil prices was difficult to reverse [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell 0.13% at night. The operating rate of domestic coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and coastal methanol inventories continued to rise. The methanol market fluctuated more due to various uncertainties [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fluctuated on Wednesday. Supply pressure might gradually emerge, and demand support was relatively limited. The market was expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. After continuous declines, the market sentiment gradually stabilized [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures closed slightly up, and soda ash futures rebounded slightly. Both were in the process of inventory digestion, and the market was still cautious [18][19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices adjusted significantly at high levels. After a rapid rise, there were profit - taking positions, and the driving factors weakened, leading to sharp price adjustments [3][20]. - **Copper**: The supply of copper concentrates remained tight, and the smelting output continued to grow. The Indonesian mine accident might lead to a supply - demand gap in the global copper market, supporting copper prices in the long term [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The smelting output was expected to continue to increase. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices might be weaker than foreign ones, and the overall price might fluctuate within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply increased, demand showed some growth, and inventory decreased. The futures price fluctuated and rose. It was expected to remain volatile in the short term, and the downward adjustment space was limited [23]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The double - coking futures oscillated at night. The steel price and demand showed some improvement, but the possibility of blast furnace production cuts due to shrinking profits could not be ignored. The short - term market was expected to oscillate at a high level [24][25]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices stabilized. The demand for iron ore was supported, and the global iron ore shipment decreased recently. The port inventory decreased rapidly. The market was expected to be strong and fluctuate upward [26]. - **Steel**: Steel prices were stable and improving. The supply pressure was gradually emerging, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not significant. The market was expected to be bullish in the medium term [27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated and rose at night. The US soybean export inspection volume was higher than expected, and the Brazilian soybean planting progress was good. The domestic market was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats prices were weak at night. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil increased, but the market was under pressure due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade [29]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices were weak at night. The global sugar market entered the inventory accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar market was expected to fluctuate in the short term [30]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices oscillated. The US cotton market was in a short - term oscillation. The domestic cotton market was under pressure from weak demand, but the price was supported by factors such as slow harvesting progress and rising purchase prices. It was expected to be strong and fluctuate in the short term [31]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index was strongly oscillating. Maersk's price increase in November indicated its intention to support prices. The market continued to bet on the year - end peak season, and the upward driving force was accumulating. The far - month contract was slowly recovering, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiation [32].

Core Viewpoint - The significant adjustment in the international precious metals market on October 22, with gold prices dropping over 6% and silver prices nearly 9%, is analyzed from multiple perspectives to provide insights for investors [1]. Market Performance - The London spot gold price experienced a daily decline of 6.2%, marking the largest single-day drop of the year. Silver prices fell by 8.7% on the same day. Domestic gold futures also adjusted accordingly, with a noticeable increase in market trading activity [3]. - The adjustment is characterized by a large decline within a normal fluctuation range, a significant increase in trading volume indicating heightened bullish-bearish divergence, and a synchronous adjustment in related stock sectors, suggesting that this price movement is part of a normal market correction [3]. Factors Behind Price Adjustment - The substantial drop in gold and silver prices is attributed to multiple factors: - From a macroeconomic perspective, the latest U.S. employment and inflation data exceeded expectations, reinforcing market anticipation of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, which pressured precious metal prices as the U.S. dollar strengthened. Historical data shows a negative correlation between the dollar index and gold/silver prices [4]. - From a market structure viewpoint, the previous continuous rise in gold and silver prices led to a buildup of profit-taking positions, creating significant technical correction pressure. The breach of key support levels triggered stop-loss orders in algorithmic trading, exacerbating price volatility [4]. - In terms of capital flow, the recent strong performance of global stock markets has led to a shift of funds from safe-haven assets to riskier assets. Data from the largest gold ETF indicates a trend of continuous reduction in holdings, reflecting a cautious attitude among institutional investors, which directly impacts prices [4]. Impact on Related Sectors - The price adjustment has put pressure on gold mining company stocks, with some gold mining firms experiencing declines greater than the broader market. The gold and silver jewelry retail sector is also affected, as market concerns about price volatility may impact consumer purchasing intentions. However, in the long term, the price correction could stimulate demand for physical gold [5]. - In the futures market, the open interest in gold and silver futures has decreased, indicating that market participants are adjusting their positions. The volatility index in the options market has risen significantly, suggesting that market expectations for price fluctuations are increasing, which requires careful attention from investors [5]. Recommendations for Investors - For long-term investors, a strategy of gradually building positions during market corrections is recommended, focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and sustainable profitability [5]. - Short-term investors are advised to control position sizes and set reasonable stop-loss points, while being cautious not to overly rely on technical analysis [6]. - Ordinary consumers with purchasing needs may consider buying during price corrections, but should clarify their purchasing intentions, especially regarding investment costs [7]. Future Outlook - Long-term factors supporting gold and silver prices remain intact, including the ongoing trend of global central banks purchasing gold, persistent geopolitical risks, and fluctuations in inflation expectations that will continue to influence precious metal prices. Investors are encouraged to adopt a long-term perspective on market volatility [7].