记者 辛圆 据央行官网周五发布消息，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第三季度例会于9月23日召开。 9月美联储恢复降息，并有可能持续降息，意味着外部因素对国内实施适度宽松货币政策的掣肘进一步弱化。 央行同时提到，强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导机制，发挥市场利率定价自律机制作用，加强利率政策执行和监督。推动社会综合融资成 本下降。从宏观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行情况，关注长期收益率的变化。 央行提到，畅通货币政策传导机制，提高资金使用效率，防范资金空转。增强外汇市场韧性，稳定市场预期，防范汇率超调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均 衡水平上的基本稳定。 另外，央行提到，持续做好支持民营经济发展壮大的金融服务，充分发挥支持小微企业融资协调工作机制作用，进一步打通中小微企业融资的堵点和卡点。 着力推动已出台金融政策措施落地见效，加大存量商品房和存量土地盘活力度，巩固房地产市场稳定态势，完善房地产金融基础性制度，助力构建房地产发 展新模式。切实推进金融高水平双向开放，提高开放条件下经济金融管理能力和风险防控能力。 会议研究了下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议加强货币政策调控，提高前瞻性、针对性、有效性，根据国 ...

每经AI快讯，9月26日，中国人民银行货币政策委员会召开2025年第三季度例会。会议研究了下阶段货 币政策主要思路，建议加强货币政策调控，提高前瞻性、针对性、有效性，根据国内外经济金融形势和 金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏，抓好各项货币政策措施执行，充分释放政策效应。 保持流动性充裕，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增 长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导机制，发挥市场利 率定价自律机制作用，加强利率政策执行和监督。推动社会综合融资成本下降。从宏观审慎的角度观 察、评估债市运行情况，关注长期收益率的变化。畅通货币政策传导机制，提高资金使用效率，防范资 金空转。增强外汇市场韧性，稳定市场预期，防范汇率超调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的 基本稳定。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of monitoring cross-border capital flows and maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate in its monetary policy report for Q2 2025 [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - The report highlights the need for comprehensive measures to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilize market expectations [1] - It stresses the importance of preventing excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate while keeping the RMB at a reasonable and balanced level [1] Group 2: Risk Management - The central bank encourages enterprises and financial institutions to adopt a "risk-neutral" mindset [1] - Financial institutions are guided to provide exchange rate hedging services to small and medium-sized enterprises based on actual needs and risk-neutral principles [1] - The aim is to create a stable exchange rate environment for the real economy [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the appreciation of the US dollar and the depreciation of other non-USD currencies, the Chinese yuan remains relatively stable, indicating resilience in China's foreign exchange market amidst complex international and domestic challenges [1][2]. - Foreign capital has been reducing its holdings of RMB-denominated bonds since February, raising concerns in the market, although this has not significantly altered the overall balance of cross-border capital flows [1][2]. - From January to May, the net inflow of cross-border funds related to goods trade reached $214.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 66%, reflecting the growth in China's import and export activities [2]. Group 2 - The current account surplus remains robust, with a surplus of $88.9 billion in the first quarter, up 25% year-on-year, and is expected to maintain a certain scale in the second quarter [3]. - China's industrial and supply chains are stable, supporting a continued surplus in goods trade, which is essential for maintaining a balanced current account [3]. - The financial market's high level of openness is expected to enhance foreign investors' confidence in holding RMB assets long-term, as China continues to improve its legal and international framework for the bond market [4].

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of China's foreign exchange market has strengthened in the first half of the year, with significant surpluses in both bank foreign exchange settlement and cross-border payments, indicating a stable outlook for the market in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In the first half of the year, the bank's foreign exchange settlement surplus reached 85.2 billion USD, and the surplus for cross-border payments was 83.4 billion USD, primarily driven by high surpluses in goods trade and direct investment [2]. - The foreign exchange settlement rate increased slightly, with a rate of 66% for customer purchases from banks, up 2 percentage points from the previous year [2]. - The foreign exchange deposit balance for enterprises remained stable at 695.1 billion USD, with a settlement rate of 67%, which is an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. Group 2: Foreign Exchange Derivatives and Risk Management - The scale of enterprises using foreign exchange derivatives for risk management grew by 29% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the growth rate of foreign exchange settlement, raising the hedging ratio to 26%, an increase of 4.1 percentage points from the previous year [3]. - The foreign exchange reserve stood at 3.0713 trillion USD at the end of June, with fluctuations in value due to the rising dollar index and falling prices of major financial assets [3]. Group 3: Foreign Investment in Chinese Bonds - Despite recent international market volatility, foreign investment in Chinese bonds is expected to continue steadily, with foreign holdings of Chinese bonds remaining stable and accounting for over 50% by central bank institutions [4][5]. - By the end of 2021, China had attracted nearly 820 billion USD in cross-border bond investments, representing about one-third of the total external bond investment in emerging markets [4]. Group 4: Support for Enterprises in Managing Exchange Rate Risks - The foreign exchange bureau is actively supporting enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, in managing exchange rate risks by reducing hedging costs and enhancing their risk management capabilities [7][8]. - In the first half of the year, enterprises utilized foreign exchange derivatives to manage risks amounting to 755.8 billion USD, with nearly 17,000 new enterprises engaging in hedging, most of which are small and medium-sized [8].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report covers various industries including finance, energy, metals, black commodities, agriculture, and shipping [1][9][11] - It analyzes market performance, price trends, and influencing factors for different commodities and financial instruments [2][3][9] - Macroeconomic factors such as US tariff policies, central bank actions, and economic data are considered [2][9][14] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The Chinese foreign exchange market shows resilience despite complex external situations [1] - Gold and silver may continue to be strong due to market risk aversion and long - term drivers [2][14] - Crude oil prices are affected by OPEC production, US inventory data, and trade tensions [3][11] - Steel prices may continue to be volatile and strong in the short term due to supply - demand balance and cost factors [4][20] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Main News - **International News**: Trump announced trade agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia, including tariff adjustments and market access [5] - **Domestic News**: At the end of Q2, RMB real estate loan balances increased, while personal housing loan balances decreased slightly [6] - **Industry News**: Russia maintains its forecast for grain production and expects significant grain exports [7] 2. Outer - market Daily Returns - Various outer - market indices and commodities showed different price changes on July 22 compared to July 21, including gains in the S&P 500, London gold, and losses in ICE Brent crude [8] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties **Financial** - **Stock Index**: A - shares are considered to have high investment value in the medium - to - long term, with different indices having different characteristics [9] - **Treasury Bonds**: Long - term treasury bond prices are falling, and market funds are relatively stable. External policies and economic data affect the market [10] **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Prices are falling, affected by OPEC production increases, US inventory changes, and trade tensions [3][11] - **Methanol**: Short - term prices are expected to be bullish due to changes in production load and inventory [12] - **Rubber**: Prices may slowly rise due to supply - side factors, while demand - side support is weak [13] **Metal** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are likely to remain strong, but there are risks of Trump's tariff threats being realized [2][14] - **Copper**: Prices may fluctuate within a range due to factors such as processing fees and downstream demand [15] - **Zinc**: Prices may have wide - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to factors like US tariffs and production [16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term prices may be strong, but there is no basis for medium - term reversal [17] **Black Commodities** - **Iron Ore**: Prices may be strong in the short term due to demand support and supply - demand imbalances in the medium term [19] - **Steel**: Prices may continue to be volatile and strong in the short term due to supply - demand and cost factors [4][20] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices may rise further in the short term but are likely to peak after late August [21] **Agricultural Products** - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, affected by US soybean conditions and domestic supply [22] - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil prices may be supported, and the overall market is expected to be in a volatile pattern [23] **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a weak state, and the peak of the seasonal peak season may be approaching [24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of agricultural modernization, particularly through technological innovation, as highlighted by General Secretary Xi Jinping [6] - The State Council has announced the implementation of the "Rural Road Regulations," which will take effect on September 15, 2025, aimed at improving rural infrastructure [7] - The report indicates that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the level of protection and development capabilities for people with disabilities in China has significantly improved [10] Group 2 - The foreign exchange market in China has shown strong resilience and vitality in the first half of the year, performing better than market expectations [13] - In the first half of the year, new RMB loans amounted to 12.92 trillion yuan, with a significant increase in green loans and support for technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises [17] - The report on the "2024 Water Conservation" indicates an increase in total water usage, while the water consumption per unit of GDP and industrial output has decreased, reflecting improved water-saving levels [20]

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of China's foreign exchange market is continuously improving, enhancing its ability to respond to external shocks [1] Macro Level Summary - The market-oriented formation mechanism of the RMB exchange rate is being continuously improved, leading to increased exchange rate flexibility that can timely release external pressures and promote supply-demand balance [1] Micro Level Summary - Awareness of exchange rate risk neutrality among enterprises is steadily increasing, with RMB cross-border transactions growing steadily. In the first half of the year, the proportion of enterprises' foreign exchange hedging and the proportion of RMB cross-border receipts and payments under goods trade both reached around 30%, marking historical highs. This reduction in foreign exchange risk exposure helps maintain rational trading in the market [1] Policy Level Summary - The foreign exchange market has accumulated rich experience in counter-cyclical regulation and has a wealth of policy tools in reserve. The effectiveness of foreign exchange regulation is steadily improving, and the ability to prevent and mitigate external shock risks is continuously enhanced. There is confidence and capability to maintain the stable operation of the foreign exchange market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilize market expectations to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate, aiming to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [1] Group 1 - The monetary policy committee of the People's Bank of China held its second quarter meeting for 2025 on June 23 [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of preventing risks associated with exchange rate overshooting [1] - The focus is on maintaining the RMB exchange rate stability within a reasonable and balanced range [1]