再次，中国经济的韧性及积极的中长期政策构成了人民币汇率走强的基本面支撑。中央经济工作会议明 确指出，2026年将实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，包括继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策；将发力稳增长、扩内需，优化并延续"两新"政策、适当增加中央预算内投资、继续发挥政策性金 融工具作用等。一系列协同发力的政策组合，叠加中国在超大规模市场、完整产业体系和人才红利方面 的综合优势，将共同推动中国经济稳中有进。这为人民币汇率提供了内在的基本面支撑。 在投资市场，人民币汇率走强提升了以人民币计价的金融资产对外价值，总体对中国的股市和债市构成 积极影响。对于持有美元等外币的国际投资者而言，投资人民币资产不仅能获得资产本身可能产生的收 益，还能额外享受汇率升值带来的汇兑收益。对债市而言，宽松的流动性环境和稳定的汇率预期，有利 于市场利率保持平稳或下行，从而为债市提供稳健空间。 对于涉及进出口的企业，人民币汇率走强将产生不同影响。对于进口企业，人民币购买力增强意味着降 低能源、原材料、关键零部件及高端消费品的进口成本，改善盈利空间。对于出口企业，可能面临部分 出口产品的价格竞争挑战。在此背景下，进出口企业需要主动运用 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the continuation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [1] - The external economic environment is assessed as having shifted from "weakened" to "insufficient" growth momentum, indicating increased challenges for the global economy [1] - Domestic economic challenges include a significant imbalance between strong supply and weak demand, necessitating enhanced monetary policy adjustments [1] Group 2 - The meeting suggests strengthening the central bank's policy interest rate guidance and improving the transmission mechanism of market-based interest rates [2] - In the bond market, a macro-prudential perspective is recommended to monitor and evaluate market conditions, particularly focusing on long-term yield changes [2] - The foreign exchange market should enhance resilience and stabilize expectations to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate, maintaining the RMB at a reasonable equilibrium level [2] Group 3 - No specific recommendations were made regarding the real estate market [2] - For the capital market, the meeting advocates for maintaining stability and suggests utilizing securities, funds, and insurance company swap facilities, as well as stock buybacks and increased loans [2]

会议研究了下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，综合运用多种工具，加 强货币政策调控，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时 机。强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导机制，发挥市场利率定价自律机制作用，加强利 率政策执行和监督。从宏观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行情况，关注长期收益率的变化。畅通货币政 策传导机制，提高资金使用效率。增强外汇市场韧性，稳定市场预期，防范汇率超调风险，保持人民币 汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's foreign exchange market maintained strong resilience and vitality in September, with cross - border capital flows remaining active and balanced, and supply and demand in the foreign exchange market being relatively balanced. The total scale of China's foreign - related payments and receipts in the first three quarters reached a record high [1]. - The prices of crude oil, precious metals, and stock indices showed different trends. Crude oil prices were difficult to reverse the downward trend; precious metals experienced significant adjustments at high levels; stock indices were about to enter a direction - selection stage [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: As of October 21, the total debt of the US federal government exceeded $38 trillion for the first time, just over two months after reaching $37 trillion in mid - August [5]. - **Domestic News**: In September, the unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group in urban China was 17.7%, 7.2% for the 25 - 29 age group, and 3.9% for the 30 - 59 age group [6]. - **Industry News**: In the first three quarters, the total transport turnover, passenger volume, and cargo volume of the civil aviation industry were 1220.3 billion ton - kilometers, 580 million passengers, and 739,500 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 10.3%, 5.2%, and 14% [7]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.53%, the European STOXX 50 index decreased by 0.47%, and the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.10%. ICE Brent crude oil increased by 4.36%, while London gold and silver decreased by 0.64% and 0.46% respectively. Other varieties also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [10]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial Products** - **Stock Indices**: After a high - level shock in September, stock indices were about to enter a direction - selection stage. The domestic liquidity environment was expected to remain loose, and external funds were also likely to flow in. The market style might return to value in the fourth quarter [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank was expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, and there might be reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, which would support the price of treasury bond futures [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 1.65% at night, but the downward trend of oil prices was difficult to reverse [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell 0.13% at night. The operating rate of domestic coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and coastal methanol inventories continued to rise. The methanol market fluctuated more due to various uncertainties [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fluctuated on Wednesday. Supply pressure might gradually emerge, and demand support was relatively limited. The market was expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. After continuous declines, the market sentiment gradually stabilized [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures closed slightly up, and soda ash futures rebounded slightly. Both were in the process of inventory digestion, and the market was still cautious [18][19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices adjusted significantly at high levels. After a rapid rise, there were profit - taking positions, and the driving factors weakened, leading to sharp price adjustments [3][20]. - **Copper**: The supply of copper concentrates remained tight, and the smelting output continued to grow. The Indonesian mine accident might lead to a supply - demand gap in the global copper market, supporting copper prices in the long term [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The smelting output was expected to continue to increase. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices might be weaker than foreign ones, and the overall price might fluctuate within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply increased, demand showed some growth, and inventory decreased. The futures price fluctuated and rose. It was expected to remain volatile in the short term, and the downward adjustment space was limited [23]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The double - coking futures oscillated at night. The steel price and demand showed some improvement, but the possibility of blast furnace production cuts due to shrinking profits could not be ignored. The short - term market was expected to oscillate at a high level [24][25]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices stabilized. The demand for iron ore was supported, and the global iron ore shipment decreased recently. The port inventory decreased rapidly. The market was expected to be strong and fluctuate upward [26]. - **Steel**: Steel prices were stable and improving. The supply pressure was gradually emerging, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not significant. The market was expected to be bullish in the medium term [27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated and rose at night. The US soybean export inspection volume was higher than expected, and the Brazilian soybean planting progress was good. The domestic market was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats prices were weak at night. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil increased, but the market was under pressure due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade [29]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices were weak at night. The global sugar market entered the inventory accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar market was expected to fluctuate in the short term [30]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices oscillated. The US cotton market was in a short - term oscillation. The domestic cotton market was under pressure from weak demand, but the price was supported by factors such as slow harvesting progress and rising purchase prices. It was expected to be strong and fluctuate in the short term [31]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index was strongly oscillating. Maersk's price increase in November indicated its intention to support prices. The market continued to bet on the year - end peak season, and the upward driving force was accumulating. The far - month contract was slowly recovering, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiation [32].

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China demonstrates strong resilience and vitality, with active and balanced cross-border capital flows and a stable supply-demand relationship [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market - In September, China's foreign exchange market operated smoothly, characterized by active and balanced cross-border capital flows [1] - The total scale of foreign-related income and expenditure in the first three quarters reached 11.6 trillion USD, a historical high for the same period [1] - Net capital inflow was 119.7 billion USD, and the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus was 63.2 billion USD, both higher than the same period last year [1] Group 2: Commodities Oil - The main crude oil contract rose by 1.65% to 449.1 CNY per barrel [1] - U.S. crude oil inventories, including strategic reserves, totaled 831.388 million barrels, down by 142,000 barrels from the previous week [2] - The downward trend in oil prices remains difficult to change despite recent fluctuations [2] Precious Metals - Gold and silver experienced significant adjustments at high levels, with the potential for further easing in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3] - Central banks continue to increase gold holdings amid rising distrust in the current financial system, enhancing gold's status as a safe-haven asset [3] - After rapid price increases, profit-taking has led to sharp adjustments in gold prices [3] Stock Indices - The three major U.S. indices fell, with the oil and petrochemical sectors leading gains while the non-ferrous metals sector lagged [4] - The financing balance increased by 14.054 billion CNY to 2.427285 trillion CNY on October 21 [4] - The market is expected to enter a phase of directional choice, with a potential shift towards value recovery in the fourth quarter [4] Group 3: Key News International News - As of October 21, the U.S. federal government debt exceeded 38 trillion USD for the first time, marking a significant increase in a short period [7] Domestic News - The unemployment rate for urban labor aged 16-24 was 17.7% in September, indicating ongoing labor market challenges [8] Industry News - The civil aviation industry completed a total transportation turnover of 1220.3 billion ton-kilometers in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.3% [9]

Core Insights - Since the "14th Five-Year Plan," China's foreign exchange market has shown resilience and stability, with significant growth in cross-border capital flows and the international influence of the Renminbi [1][2][3] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - The foreign exchange market's trading volume is projected to reach $41 trillion by 2024, a 37.4% increase from 2020 [1] - The scale of cross-border receipts and payments is expected to be $14 trillion by 2024, reflecting a 64% growth compared to 2020 [1] - The net inflow of foreign investment into China from 2021 to mid-2025 is over $740 billion [2] Group 2: International Balance of Payments - China's international balance of payments has maintained basic equilibrium, with steady increases in foreign financial assets and liabilities [2] - The average annual scale of goods trade imports and exports from 2021 to 2024 is nearly $6 trillion, a 43% increase compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The net foreign assets of China stand at $3.8 trillion, ranking third globally [2] Group 3: Resilience and Risk Management - The resilience of the foreign exchange market has improved, enhancing its ability to withstand external shocks [3] - The percentage of enterprises using foreign exchange hedging has increased from 17% in 2020 to around 30% [3] - The share of Renminbi in cross-border trade has risen from 16% to nearly 30% [3] Group 4: Efficient Allocation of Foreign Exchange Resources - The foreign exchange market has developed a comprehensive product system, including spot, forward, swap, and options [4] - By mid-2023, 703 banks and 115 non-bank institutions, including 296 foreign institutions, participated in the interbank foreign exchange market [4] - The Renminbi has maintained its position as the fifth most traded currency globally, with a market share of 8.5%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from 2022 [4] Group 5: Policy Enhancements for Enterprises - The foreign exchange management authority has focused on optimizing policies to benefit enterprises and the public [5] - Since 2021, policies for facilitating high-quality enterprises have been upgraded, with approximately $4.7 trillion in facilitation transactions processed by September 2025 [6] - The implementation of a "one-stop" service for trade foreign exchange business has streamlined processes for enterprises [6] Group 6: Future Directions - The foreign exchange management authority aims to balance trade facilitation and risk prevention, enhancing public awareness of policy benefits [7]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to address domestic demand insufficiency and low price levels while promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price levels [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - China's economy is showing steady progress, with improved social confidence and new achievements in high-quality development, but still faces challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels [2]. - The market has high expectations for policy strength amid ongoing downward pressure on the economy [4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Strategy - The PBOC plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, enhance counter-cyclical adjustments, and better utilize both total and structural monetary policy tools [2]. - The central bank aims to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply, aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [2][4]. Group 3: Policy Implementation - The PBOC suggests that monetary policy adjustments should be flexible based on domestic and international economic conditions, without setting specific policy windows [4]. - There is a focus on strengthening the guidance of central bank policy rates and improving the market-based interest rate transmission mechanism [4]. Group 4: Support for Specific Sectors - The PBOC is committed to supporting the development of the private economy and enhancing financing for small and micro enterprises, addressing financing bottlenecks [5]. - Efforts will be made to implement existing financial policies effectively, boost the vitality of existing real estate and land, and stabilize the real estate market [5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for proactive and targeted monetary policy adjustments to align with domestic and international economic conditions, aiming to enhance the effectiveness of policy measures [1] Monetary Policy Strategy - The meeting discussed strengthening monetary policy regulation and improving its foresight, targeting, and effectiveness based on economic and financial market conditions [1] - It is suggested to maintain ample liquidity and encourage financial institutions to increase credit supply, ensuring that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations [1] Interest Rate Management - The central bank aims to reinforce the guidance of policy interest rates and improve the transmission mechanism of market-based interest rates, enhancing the self-discipline of market interest rate pricing [1] - There is a focus on executing and supervising interest rate policies to promote a decrease in the overall financing costs for society [1] Debt Market Monitoring - From a macro-prudential perspective, the meeting highlighted the importance of observing and assessing the debt market's performance, particularly the changes in long-term yields [1] Currency Stability - The central bank intends to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market, stabilize market expectations, and prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate, maintaining the RMB's stability at a reasonable and balanced level [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of monitoring cross-border capital flows and maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate in its monetary policy report for Q2 2025 [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - The report highlights the need for comprehensive measures to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilize market expectations [1] - It stresses the importance of preventing excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate while keeping the RMB at a reasonable and balanced level [1] Group 2: Risk Management - The central bank encourages enterprises and financial institutions to adopt a "risk-neutral" mindset [1] - Financial institutions are guided to provide exchange rate hedging services to small and medium-sized enterprises based on actual needs and risk-neutral principles [1] - The aim is to create a stable exchange rate environment for the real economy [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the appreciation of the US dollar and the depreciation of other non-USD currencies, the Chinese yuan remains relatively stable, indicating resilience in China's foreign exchange market amidst complex international and domestic challenges [1][2]. - Foreign capital has been reducing its holdings of RMB-denominated bonds since February, raising concerns in the market, although this has not significantly altered the overall balance of cross-border capital flows [1][2]. - From January to May, the net inflow of cross-border funds related to goods trade reached $214.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 66%, reflecting the growth in China's import and export activities [2]. Group 2 - The current account surplus remains robust, with a surplus of $88.9 billion in the first quarter, up 25% year-on-year, and is expected to maintain a certain scale in the second quarter [3]. - China's industrial and supply chains are stable, supporting a continued surplus in goods trade, which is essential for maintaining a balanced current account [3]. - The financial market's high level of openness is expected to enhance foreign investors' confidence in holding RMB assets long-term, as China continues to improve its legal and international framework for the bond market [4].