Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views of the Report - After the high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a phase of direction selection again. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest rate cuts and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme of the current upward market trend, considering the possible intensification of Q4 growth - stabilization policies and the potential resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style in Q4 may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to Q3 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4648.40, 4634.80, 4604.00, and 4567.40 respectively, with increases of 68.60, 68.00, 62.40, and 66.80, and increases of 1.50%, 1.49%, 1.37%, and 1.48% respectively. The trading volumes were 24392.00, 74172.00, 14177.00, and 3440.00, and the open interests were 40441.00, 153415.00, 55843.00, and 5714.00 respectively, with changes of - 2317.00, - 6793.00, - 1216.00, and 1074.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 3067.40, 3066.80, 3069.20, and 3067.40 respectively, with increases of 23.40, 22.40, 23.60, and 24.40, and increases of 0.77%, 0.74%, 0.77%, and 0.80% respectively. The trading volumes were 11960.00, 37476.00, 5043.00, and 1819.00, and the open interests were 15335.00, 65887.00, 14472.00, and 2468.00 respectively, with changes of 218.00, 1268.00, 850.00, and 497.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 7310.40, 7254.40, 7083.00, and 6903.40 respectively, with increases of 125.00, 125.20, 121.20, and 126.40, and increases of 1.74%, 1.76%, 1.74%, and 1.87% respectively. The trading volumes were 27275.00, 87202.00, 16929.00, and 5288.00, and the open interests were 49174.00, 140233.00, 51880.00, and 11298.00 respectively, with changes of 1344.00, 5789.00, 409.00, and 1439.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 7399.40, 7322.60, 7105.20, and 6891.60 respectively, with increases of 55.80, 54.80, 54.80, and 58.60, and increases of 0.76%, 0.75%, 0.78%, and 0.86% respectively. The trading volumes were 45173.00, 137585.00, 23471.00, and 8513.00, and the open interests were 72266.00, 187588.00, 78846.00, and 20144.00 respectively, with changes of 2184.00, 4103.00, 2254.00, and 1214.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of IF next month - IF current month, IH next month - IH current month, IC next month - IC current month, and IM next month - IM current month were - 13.60, - 0.60, - 56.00, and - 76.80 respectively, compared with previous values of - 12.80, 0.20, - 52.00, and - 71.20 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4716.02, 3045.82, 7258.53, and 7495.38 respectively, with increases of 1.19%, 0.62%, 1.62%, and 1.03% respectively. The trading volumes (in billions of shares) were 6726.70, 1554.40, 3660.62, and 4581.70 respectively [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, the raw materials, telecommunications services, and information technology industries had relatively high increases of 2.24%, 3.72%, and 2.63% respectively, while the major consumer industry had a slight decline of - 0.03% [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The previous values of IF current month - CSI 300, IF next month - CSI 300, IF next quarter - CSI 300, and IF far - quarter - CSI 300 were - 12.28, - 25.88, - 56.68, and - 93.28 respectively; those of IH current month - SSE 50, IH next month - SSE 50, IH next quarter - SSE 50, and IH far - quarter - SSE 50 were 2.58, 2.78, 4.18, and 5.98 respectively; those of IC current month - CSI 500, IC next month - CSI 500, IC next quarter - CSI 500, and IC far - quarter - CSI 500 were - 68.99, - 124.99, - 296.39, and - 475.99 respectively; and those of IM current month - CSI 1000, IM next month - CSI 1000, IM next quarter - CSI 1000, and IM far - quarter - CSI 1000 were - 95.98, - 172.78, - 390.18, and - 603.78 respectively [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3996.94, 13489.40, 8272.63, and 3234.45 respectively, with increases of 1.18%, 1.51%, 1.63%, and 1.98% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26433.70, 49299.65, 6875.16, and 24308.78 respectively, with increases of 1.05%, 1.35%, 1.23%, and 0.28% respectively [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - Diplomatic Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, expressing the hope that both sides would work towards each other to prepare for high - level interactions and create conditions for bilateral relations. Spokesperson Guo Jiakun said that China and the US were in close communication regarding the possible meeting of the two heads of state [2] - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference opened. Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that the central bank would maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, resume open - market treasury bond trading, and take other measures. Financial Regulatory Administration Director Li Yunze said that a financial service model emphasizing both investment in things and people would be constructed. CSRC Chairman Wu Qing said that reforms of the ChiNext would be deepened [2] - Premier Li Qiang attended the 5th RCEP Leaders' Meeting, calling on all parties to collaborate more closely to address challenges and support the accession of applicants such as Hong Kong, China. Vice - Premier He Lifeng emphasized that the financial system should prevent risks, strengthen supervision, and promote high - quality development and opening - up [2] 6. Industry Information - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices were lowered on October 27th. The prices per ton were reduced by 265 yuan and 255 yuan respectively [2] - Relevant authorities were considering a new document to standardize the naming of "semi - solid - state batteries" as "solid - liquid batteries" [2] - Shandong Province issued the first provincial - level special plan for low - altitude information infrastructure, aiming to build a low - altitude communication network infrastructure in ten years [2] - The Bank of Korea stated that stablecoins should be issued by traditional banks under national supervision, and the South Korean government was considering launching a won - linked stablecoin [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's foreign exchange market maintained strong resilience and vitality in September, with cross - border capital flows remaining active and balanced, and supply and demand in the foreign exchange market being relatively balanced. The total scale of China's foreign - related payments and receipts in the first three quarters reached a record high [1]. - The prices of crude oil, precious metals, and stock indices showed different trends. Crude oil prices were difficult to reverse the downward trend; precious metals experienced significant adjustments at high levels; stock indices were about to enter a direction - selection stage [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: As of October 21, the total debt of the US federal government exceeded $38 trillion for the first time, just over two months after reaching $37 trillion in mid - August [5]. - **Domestic News**: In September, the unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group in urban China was 17.7%, 7.2% for the 25 - 29 age group, and 3.9% for the 30 - 59 age group [6]. - **Industry News**: In the first three quarters, the total transport turnover, passenger volume, and cargo volume of the civil aviation industry were 1220.3 billion ton - kilometers, 580 million passengers, and 739,500 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 10.3%, 5.2%, and 14% [7]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.53%, the European STOXX 50 index decreased by 0.47%, and the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.10%. ICE Brent crude oil increased by 4.36%, while London gold and silver decreased by 0.64% and 0.46% respectively. Other varieties also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [10]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial Products** - **Stock Indices**: After a high - level shock in September, stock indices were about to enter a direction - selection stage. The domestic liquidity environment was expected to remain loose, and external funds were also likely to flow in. The market style might return to value in the fourth quarter [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank was expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, and there might be reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, which would support the price of treasury bond futures [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 1.65% at night, but the downward trend of oil prices was difficult to reverse [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell 0.13% at night. The operating rate of domestic coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and coastal methanol inventories continued to rise. The methanol market fluctuated more due to various uncertainties [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fluctuated on Wednesday. Supply pressure might gradually emerge, and demand support was relatively limited. The market was expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. After continuous declines, the market sentiment gradually stabilized [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures closed slightly up, and soda ash futures rebounded slightly. Both were in the process of inventory digestion, and the market was still cautious [18][19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices adjusted significantly at high levels. After a rapid rise, there were profit - taking positions, and the driving factors weakened, leading to sharp price adjustments [3][20]. - **Copper**: The supply of copper concentrates remained tight, and the smelting output continued to grow. The Indonesian mine accident might lead to a supply - demand gap in the global copper market, supporting copper prices in the long term [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The smelting output was expected to continue to increase. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices might be weaker than foreign ones, and the overall price might fluctuate within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply increased, demand showed some growth, and inventory decreased. The futures price fluctuated and rose. It was expected to remain volatile in the short term, and the downward adjustment space was limited [23]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The double - coking futures oscillated at night. The steel price and demand showed some improvement, but the possibility of blast furnace production cuts due to shrinking profits could not be ignored. The short - term market was expected to oscillate at a high level [24][25]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices stabilized. The demand for iron ore was supported, and the global iron ore shipment decreased recently. The port inventory decreased rapidly. The market was expected to be strong and fluctuate upward [26]. - **Steel**: Steel prices were stable and improving. The supply pressure was gradually emerging, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not significant. The market was expected to be bullish in the medium term [27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated and rose at night. The US soybean export inspection volume was higher than expected, and the Brazilian soybean planting progress was good. The domestic market was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats prices were weak at night. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil increased, but the market was under pressure due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade [29]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices were weak at night. The global sugar market entered the inventory accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar market was expected to fluctuate in the short term [30]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices oscillated. The US cotton market was in a short - term oscillation. The domestic cotton market was under pressure from weak demand, but the price was supported by factors such as slow harvesting progress and rising purchase prices. It was expected to be strong and fluctuate in the short term [31]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index was strongly oscillating. Maersk's price increase in November indicated its intention to support prices. The market continued to bet on the year - end peak season, and the upward driving force was accumulating. The far - month contract was slowly recovering, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiation [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After experiencing high - level fluctuations in September, the stock index will enter a direction - selection phase again. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents are likely to increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest rate cut and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme of the upward market trend, considering the expected increase in pro - growth policies in the fourth quarter and the possible resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style may return to value in the fourth quarter and be more balanced than in the third quarter [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) decreased compared to the day before yesterday, with decreases of 20.80, 21.20, 20.20, and 20.40 respectively. The trading volumes were 21714.00, 65140.00, 8023.00, and 2057.00, and the positions were 38677.00, 151558.00, 55037.00, and 4041.00 respectively. The position changes were - 3011.00, - 6000.00, - 1150.00, and 708.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts decreased slightly, with decreases of 3.80, 1.80, 2.80, and 1.80. The trading volumes were 11040.00, 31434.00, 3566.00, and 1049.00, and the positions were 14291.00, 59769.00, 13098.00, and 1315.00 respectively. The position changes were - 219.00, - 2561.00, - 338.00, and 283.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts decreased significantly, with decreases of 57.80, 56.20, 55.20, and 39.20. The trading volumes were 23265.00, 68879.00, 12798.00, and 4297.00, and the positions were 45760.00, 131680.00, 51376.00, and 7623.00 respectively. The position changes were - 4745.00, - 8301.00, - 643.00, and 1052.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with decreases of 35.80, 36.20, 35.40, and 34.60. The trading volumes were 35068.00, 120919.00, 18115.00, and 8259.00, and the positions were 68005.00, 180451.00, 78082.00, and 15098.00 respectively. The position changes were - 4046.00, - 10035.00, - 2049.00, and 2464.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of IF next month - IF current month, IH next month - IH current month, IC next month - IC current month, and IM next month - IM current month were - 10.60, 2.00, - 53.40, and - 74.00 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 11.00, 0.60, - 56.00, and - 78.20 [1] II. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes changed, with the CSI 300 down 0.33%, the SSE 50 up 0.09%, the CSI 500 down 0.80%, and the CSI 1000 down 0.43%. The trading volumes and total trading amounts also changed [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among the CSI 300 industry indexes, the energy, telecommunications, and utilities sectors had positive growth rates of 0.63%, 0.02%, and 0.31% respectively, while the raw materials, industrial, and pharmaceutical sectors had negative growth rates of - 0.99%, - 0.86%, and - 0.95% respectively [1] III. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis differences between futures contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM) and their corresponding spot indexes (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) showed certain changes compared with the day before yesterday [1] IV. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index all had positive growth rates of 1.36%, 2.06%, 2.13%, and 3.02% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, and DAX Index had positive growth rates of 0.65%, 3.37%, and 0.29% respectively, while the S&P 500 had no change [1] V. Macro Information - US President Trump expressed his expectation to reach a good trade agreement with Chinese leaders during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting next week, but also mentioned that the meeting might be cancelled. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that head - of - state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic leading role in Sino - US relations, and there is currently no information to provide on the specific issue [2] - The Asset Management Association of China is about to release a draft for soliciting opinions on the performance comparison benchmark rules for public funds. Multiple fund managers, mainly leading ones, have submitted a batch of indexes intended as performance comparison benchmarks, covering various types such as broad - based, industry, and style. However, the regulatory authorities are relatively cautious about the number of indexes entering the actual benchmark library [2] - Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao met with Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury to discuss Airbus' cooperation with China. Wang emphasized that Airbus should continue to strengthen cooperation with China based on the commissioning of the second A320 final assembly line in Tianjin. China will continue to play the role of the round - table meeting for foreign - funded enterprises to help solve problems and concerns in Airbus' development and operation in China [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics released the unemployment rate data for different age groups in September. The unemployment rate of the urban labor force aged 16 - 24 was 17.7%, 7.2% for those aged 25 - 29, and 3.9% for those aged 30 - 59 [2] VI. Industry Information - The "Energy - Saving and New - Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0" was officially released, proposing that by 2040, the penetration rate of new - energy passenger vehicles will reach over 85%, with BEV accounting for 80%. L4 - level intelligent and connected vehicles will be fully popularized, and L5 - level intelligent and connected vehicles will start to enter the market [2] - The National Press and Publication Administration announced the game version numbers for October, with 159 domestic games and 7 imported games approved. The number of approvals was at a high level this year, second only to 173 in August. Many well - known game companies such as Tencent, Zhongqingbao, and 37 Interactive Entertainment had new games on the list [2] - Chinese Deputy Minister of Natural Resources Sun Shuxian said that the total output value of China's geographic information industry in 2025 will increase to nearly one trillion yuan. China will strengthen the construction of spatio - temporal information infrastructure, consolidate the data resource base, and prioritize the opening of data resources closely related to people's livelihood and in urgent social demand to the public [2] - According to data from the Civil Aviation Administration of China, in the first three quarters, the total transport turnover, passenger volume, and cargo volume of the civil aviation industry were 1220.3 billion ton - kilometers, 580 million passengers, and 739500 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 10.3%, 5.2%, and 14% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again and is likely to maintain a bullish trend. In the short term, due to Sino - US trade issues, market risk - aversion sentiment may intensify, and stock market volatility may increase. Domestically, the liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest rate cuts and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme of the current upward market trend, considering the expected increase in Q4's growth - stabilization policies and the resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style in Q4 may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to Q3 [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4613.80, 4600.40, 4592.20, and 4571.80 respectively, with declines of 98.20, 102.80, 102.20, and 100.80. The trading volumes were 43832.00, 5422.00, 96227.00, and 16669.00, and the positions were 51030.00, 9132.00, 162971.00, and 55448.00, with position changes of - 3181.00, 1427.00, - 329.00, and 3589.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 2976.00, 2973.60, 2975.80, and 2974.00, with declines of 46.80, 48.60, 48.40, and 49.80. The trading volumes were 20378.00, 3053.00, 43708.00, and 6794.00, and the positions were 21085.00, 3090.00, 67688.00, and 13880.00, with position changes of 13.00, 793.00, 840.00, and 524.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 7382.00, 7311.20, 7266.00, and 7100.60, with declines of 149.40, 160.40, 166.80, and 171.60. The trading volumes were 39765.00, 10064.00, 99771.00, and 20790.00, and the positions were 50530.00, 18841.00, 140200.00, and 50503.00, with position changes of - 6184.00, 3029.00, - 3614.00, and - 1513.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 7514.20, 7421.80, 7340.40, and 7120.00, with declines of 104.60, 117.60, 127.40, and 128.80. The trading volumes were 53416.00, 15411.00, 140881.00, and 23742.00, and the positions were 70956.00, 22199.00, 183267.00, and 80505.00, with position changes of - 2937.00, 6180.00, 1106.00, and - 498.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 13.40, - 2.40, - 70.80, and - 92.40 respectively, compared to previous values of - 9.60, - 0.80, - 62.40, and - 80.60 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4616.83, 2974.85, 7398.22, and 7533.82 respectively, with declines of 1.97%, 1.51%, 2.00%, and 1.49%. Their trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 319.02, 67.28, 262.26, and 290.43, and total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 7927.43, 2001.81, 5021.27, and 4857.04 [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among industries, energy rose 0.88%, while raw materials, industry, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, information technology, telecom business, and public utilities had changes of - 2.23%, - 3.07%, - 1.22%, - 0.12%, - 2.74%, 0.48%, - 5.58%, - 1.41%, and 0.18% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts (current month - CSI 300, next month - CSI 300, next quarter - CSI 300, far - quarter - CSI 300) were - 3.03, - 16.43, - 24.63, and - 45.03 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts (current month - SSE 50, next month - SSE 50, next quarter - SSE 50, far - quarter - SSE 50) were 1.15, - 1.25, 0.95, and - 0.85 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts (current month - CSI 500, next month - CSI 500, next quarter - CSI 500, far - quarter - CSI 500) were - 16.22, - 87.02, - 132.22, and - 297.62 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts (current month - CSI 1000, next month - CSI 1000, next quarter - CSI 1000, far - quarter - CSI 1000) were - 19.62, - 112.02, - 193.42, and - 413.82 [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3897.03, 13355.42, 8293.71, and 3113.26 respectively, with declines of 0.94%, 2.70%, 2.86%, and 4.55% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26290.32, 48580.44, 6552.51, and 24241.46 respectively, with changes of - 1.73%, 1.77%, - 2.71%, and - 1.50% [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - China's rare - earth export control is not a ban. The US plan to impose 100% tariffs on China seriously damages China's interests, and China firmly opposes it. China is not afraid of a tariff war. US Vice - President Vance signaled a potential easing of the trade situation, saying Trump is willing to have rational negotiations with China [2] - The National Conference on Scientific and Technological Innovation in the Industrial and Information Technology Sector was held, emphasizing the construction of a modern industrial scientific and technological innovation system [2] 6. Industry Information - The 138th Canton Fair will open on October 15, with record - high exhibition scale and pre - registered buyers. It signals a potential continued resilient growth of China's foreign trade [2] - Supervision on the illegal flow of individual business loans into the real - estate market has been strengthened, and the risks of such loans are emerging as they reach maturity and real - estate values decline [2] - The "report - price - alignment" policy will be implemented in the non - auto insurance sector. Major insurance companies have set up working groups to implement regulatory requirements [2]