报告日期：2025 年 10 月 23 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：外汇市场保持着较强的韧性和活力 9 月我国外汇市场平稳运行，主要呈现两个特点：一是跨境资金流动保持活跃、 均衡态势；二是外汇市场供求较为平衡。今年前三季度我国涉外收支总规模为 11.6 万亿美元，创历史同期新高。跨境资金净流入 1197 亿美元，银行结售汇顺 差 632 亿美元，均高于上年同期水平。总的来看，面对复杂多变的外部环境，今 年以来我国外汇市场稳健运行，市场预期平稳，供求基本平衡，外汇市场保持着 较强的韧性和活力。国内商品期货夜盘，原油主力合约收涨 1.65%报 449.1 元/ 桶。贵金属方面，沪金收跌 1.56%报 934.72 元/克，沪银涨 0.04%报 11331 元/ 千克。 重点品种： 贵金属、原油、股指 原油：SC 夜盘上涨 1.65%。特朗普在上周与普京通话后，宣布两国元首近期将在 匈牙利首都布达佩斯会晤。特朗普 21 日在白宫椭圆形办公室告诉记者，与普京 的原定会面计划被搁置。欧盟轮值主席国丹麦宣布，欧盟各成员国已批准对俄实 施第 19 轮制裁，制裁措施包括禁止进口俄液化天然气等。美国能源信息署数据 显示， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely. Although they were initially driven up by geopolitical factors, they dropped significantly after the release of US inflation data. Currently, the supply side in the commodity attribute remains loose due to OPEC+ production increases, and the consumption side has poor expectations due to weak US economic data. This combination makes it difficult to boost oil prices. Financially, the expected 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut this week may not significantly lift commodity prices. Politically, geopolitical conflicts centered around Israel are intense, which may further amplify short - term oil price fluctuations. Overall, oil prices may remain high in the short term with some upward potential, but will face pressure in the long term [70]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, oil prices first rose due to geopolitical factors, then回调 on Thursday due to US inflation data, and recovered over the weekend. This week, oil prices are expected to be more volatile under the influence of major economies' interest rate decisions and geopolitical factors, with some upward potential. It is recommended to focus on the price range of 460 - 510 yuan/barrel. Short - term investors can take a cautiously bullish approach, while a bearish view is advisable for the long term [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, oil prices rose in the first half due to Middle East geopolitical tensions. On Thursday, they dropped sharply due to the impact of higher - than - expected US CPI data and market pessimism about future consumption. Over the weekend, they rebounded due to geopolitical factors and news of Western sanctions on Russia [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Factors - **Fed Rate Cut**: The market expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points this Thursday, with a 7% chance of a 50 - basis - point cut. There is a higher probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in each of the remaining three meetings this year. However, institutions are pessimistic about the Fed's rate - cut motives and the post - cut economic situation, so the rate cut may have limited impact on commodity prices [25]. - **Super Central Bank Week**: This week is a super central bank week. The Bank of England is expected to keep the interest rate at 4.0%, with the focus on signals about future rate cuts. The Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.5% on Wednesday due to a weak job market, concerns about US trade tariffs, and controllable inflation. The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain the previous rate decision [28]. - **Geopolitical Fluctuations**: Last week, Israel's attacks on multiple countries in the Middle East and NATO's actions in Poland, along with Ukraine's call for new sanctions on Russia, have increased market concerns about geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and affected confidence in Russian oil exports [32]. 3.3.2 Supply - side Factors - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ increased production in August. OPEC's production rose from 27.47 million barrels in July to 27.948 million barrels in August, an increase of 478,000 barrels. The total OPEC+ production increased by 509,000 barrels from 41.891 million barrels to 42.4 million barrels [36]. - **Saudi Price Cut**: Saudi Arabia cut the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil to Asian markets by $1/barrel in October, which is seen as an attempt to grab market share and may lead to more determined OPEC+ production increases [38]. - **Continuous Production Increase by Saudi and Russia**: Saudi Arabia and Russia have been increasing production, which contributes to the supply - side expansion [41]. - **Iraq's Production Recovery**: Iraq's oil production has been recovering [44]. - **Stable US Production Recovery**: US oil production has been steadily recovering [47]. 3.3.3 Demand - side Factors - **Slight Improvement in Consumption Expectations**: OPEC maintains its 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 105.14 million barrels per day. The IEA raises its 2025 global oil supply growth forecast from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and the demand growth forecast from 680,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day. However, the market still faces a high supply - surplus situation [50]. - **Weak Manufacturing in China and the US**: The manufacturing PMIs in China and the US have not shown significant improvement, which may limit oil demand [53]. - **Shift to Diesel Production**: The market is shifting towards diesel production, with gasoline consumption declining and diesel consumption expected to increase [58]. 3.3.4 Inventory Factors - **Continuous Crude Oil Inventory Build - up**: US API and EIA crude oil inventories increased in the week ending September 5, exceeding market expectations of inventory reduction. This is due to higher - than - expected US production and lower - than - expected exports, and the situation may not improve with OPEC+ production increases and Saudi price cuts [60]. - **Weak Gasoline Production**: US gasoline inventory increased in the week ending September 5, while refined oil inventory also rose. The market is in a seasonal phase of reducing gasoline production and increasing diesel production, which may support fuel oil prices [64]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - Short - term oil prices may remain high with some upward potential, but long - term prices are under pressure due to supply - side expansion, weak consumption expectations, limited impact of the Fed rate cut, and intense geopolitical conflicts [70].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4][5][6] Core Viewpoints - The oil price is oscillating due to factors such as inventory changes, OPEC+ production decisions, and market expectations [1] - The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and PVC are also expected to oscillate, with their trends depending on various factors including cost, supply, demand, and market sentiment [2][4][5][6] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices fell. The EIA inventory report showed an increase in US commercial crude and SPR inventories, a decrease in gasoline inventory, and an increase in distillate inventory. US domestic crude production and refinery processing volume decreased. OPEC+ meeting agenda is yet to be set, and some members may increase production. The oil price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the fuel oil futures prices fell. The Chinese refinery operating rate increased. The inflow of low-sulfur fuel oil from the West is expected to decrease, and the high-sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may also decline. However, the overall demand for high and low sulfur fuel oil remains weak. The prices of FU and LU have some upward momentum but depend on the oil price [2] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the asphalt futures price fell. The domestic asphalt shipments increased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt decreased. In September, the demand in the north may increase, but the supply in North and Northeast China may limit the price increase. The overall supply pressure is limited, and the price may rise further [2] - **Polyester**: On Thursday, the TA futures price fell, and the EG futures price rose. PX supply is high, and downstream TA maintenance volume increases. The terminal demand is weak, and the demand in the peak season is under test. The EG spot liquidity is tight, but the inventory may increase in the future [4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the RU and NR futures prices rose, and the BR futures price fell. The weather in the producing areas may be affected by La Nina. The raw material prices fluctuate slightly, and the demand is stable domestically and weak externally. The heavy truck sales are good, and the inventory is slightly reduced. The rubber price is expected to oscillate [4][5] - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the methanol spot price is stable. The MTO device may resume production due to improved profits, and the demand in September is expected to pick up. The supply increment is limited, and the price is expected to enter a bottom area [5] - **Polyolefin**: On Thursday, the polyolefin prices are stable. In September, the supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is gradually transferred to the downstream. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly [5] - **PVC**: On Thursday, the PVC market prices are adjusted. The real estate construction is weak, and the demand for PVC downstream products is limited. The export is expected to decline due to the anti-dumping tax. The PVC price in September is expected to oscillate weakly [6] Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on September 4th and 5th, 2025 [7] Market News - The EIA inventory report shows the changes in US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories, as well as domestic production and refinery processing volume [9] - OPEC's oil production in August may increase, mainly due to the output growth of the UAE and Saudi Arabia. OPEC+ is accelerating the relaxation of production cuts, while some members are required to make additional cuts [9] Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [11][13][15][17][19][21] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [23][25][29][31][33][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread trends of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [37][39][42][45][48][49][52] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: The report shows the spread and ratio trends between different varieties, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [54][59] - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report presents the cash flow and production profit trends of some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [62][64] Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and professional qualifications [67][68][69][70]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Maintain Buy" [5] Core Viewpoints - The oil market is experiencing fluctuations with a focus on the progress of US-Russia negotiations, leading to a decline in oil prices [1] - OPEC+ has been increasing production since May, with a total increase of over 1.2 million barrels per day from May to July, and a significant increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August, marking the highest monthly increase since the Saudi price war in 2020 [2] - Demand forecasts have been adjusted, with IEA lowering its predictions due to weak consumption in emerging markets, while EIA has raised its forecasts for certain countries, indicating a mixed outlook for demand [3] - US crude oil inventories have increased, indicating a shift from drawdown to accumulation [3] Supply Summary - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 550,000 barrels per day in September, aiming to fully restore 2.2 million barrels per day of reduced capacity [2] - IEA and EIA have raised their annual supply increase forecasts to 2.5 million barrels per day and 2.28 million barrels per day, respectively, reflecting a significant upward revision [2] Demand Summary - IEA has downgraded its demand forecast for emerging markets, while EIA has raised its demand forecast for countries like China and the US, indicating a divergence in outlooks [3] - The demand growth forecast for 2025 has been reduced by IEA, marking the lowest increase since 2009, while EIA's forecast has been adjusted upward but still reflects a decline from earlier predictions [3] Price Support Analysis - The average breakeven price for new wells in the US is approximately $65 per barrel, with larger companies having a breakeven price around $61 per barrel [4] - The operational cost range for US oil companies to cover existing well expenses is between $26 and $45 per barrel, indicating potential vulnerabilities if prices fall significantly [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that multiple positive factors are resonating in the crude oil market, and it recommends holding long positions and positive spreads. The current trend strength of crude oil is rated as 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [2][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Information Market Data - WTI July crude oil futures rose $3.17 per barrel, or 4.88%, to $68.15 per barrel; Brent August crude oil futures rose $2.90 per barrel, or 4.33%, to $69.77 per barrel; SC2507 crude oil futures rose 16.20 yuan per barrel, or 3.37%, to 497.40 yuan per barrel [2]. Inventory Data - EIA reported that commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.644 million barrels to 432 million barrels, a decline of 0.84%. The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 19.891 million barrels per day, a 0.53% increase from the same period last year. U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending June 6 was - 3.644 million barrels, compared with an expected - 1.96 million barrels and a previous value of - 4.304 million barrels. U.S. EIA Cushing crude oil inventory for the week ending June 6 was - 403,000 barrels, compared with a previous value of 576,000 barrels [3]. - PAJ reported that Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 206,359 kiloliters in the week ending June 7 [3]. - As of the week ending June 9, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 17.341 million barrels, an increase of 1.725 million barrels from the previous week. Among them, the light distillate inventory increased by 76,000 barrels to 7.802 million barrels, the medium distillate inventory increased by 135,000 barrels to 787,000 barrels, and the heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 1.514 million barrels to 8.752 million barrels [6]. Production and Export Data - Russia's main offline refining capacity in July was increased by 21% from the previous plan to 3.2 million tons [3]. - From January to May this year, Kazakhstan's oil exports to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline increased by 48% year - on - year to 767,000 tons [3]. - Despite political tensions in Libya, its crude oil production in May slightly increased to 1.23 million barrels per day, a 12 - year high, and its crude oil exports in May reached a multi - year high of 1.26 million barrels per day [3]. Geopolitical and Negotiation Information - Trump expressed reduced confidence in reaching the Iran nuclear deal. The possibility of the sixth round of U.S. - Iran negotiations scheduled for this weekend in Oman is decreasing [3]. - The EU Commission proposed an 18th round of sanctions against Russia, suggesting lowering the price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $45 per barrel. Putin extended counter - measures against the price cap on Russian oil and oil products until December 31, 2025 [3]. - There are signs of U.S. diplomatic withdrawals in multiple Middle Eastern countries, and Israel's military is on high alert, fearing an escalation of conflict with Iran. The UK warned that the intensifying tension in the Middle East may lead to an "escalation of military activities" [3][4]. - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander - in - Chief stated that they are ready with upgraded missiles for any combat [6]. - The U.S. military authorized the voluntary departure of military families from the Middle East due to increased tensions with Iran [6]. Other Information - The U.S. Energy Secretary expected to sign more liquefied natural gas export agreements and an increase in LNG supply to India [6]. - The World Bank warned that a further 10% increase in the average U.S. tariff could lead to a global trade standstill in the second half of 2025 [6]. - The Trump administration may extend the 90 - day tariff suspension period if its major trading partners show "good faith" in negotiations [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil processing industry Core Insights - The report highlights a downward adjustment in the 2025 crude oil inventory forecast by EIA, indicating a more cautious outlook on supply and demand dynamics in the oil market [1][20] Summary by Sections Crude Oil Price Overview - As of April 9, 2025, Brent crude, WTI, Russian ESPO, and Russian Urals prices were $65.48, $62.35, $56.53, and $65.49 per barrel respectively, with month-to-date changes of -5.48% for Brent and -5.57% for WTI [7][8] Crude Oil Inventory - As of April 4, 2025, total U.S. crude oil inventory was 83,905.5 million barrels, with a month-on-month increase of 824.4 million barrels [14][19] - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global crude oil inventory changes for 2025 to be +57.52, +3.11, and -138.23 thousand barrels per day respectively, with an average forecast change of -25.87 thousand barrels per day [20] Crude Oil Supply - The 2025 global crude oil supply forecasts by IEA, EIA, and OPEC are 10,448.69, 10,416.72, and 10,381.77 million barrels per day respectively, reflecting increases from 2024 [26] - For Q1 2025, the predicted year-on-year supply increments are +150.86, +120.55, and +144.82 thousand barrels per day from IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively [26] Crude Oil Demand - The 2025 global crude oil demand forecasts by IEA, EIA, and OPEC are 10,391.17, 10,413.61, and 10,520.00 million barrels per day respectively, with year-on-year increases from 2024 [20] - For Q1 2025, the predicted year-on-year demand increments are +123.54, +188.93, and +144.24 thousand barrels per day from IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively [20] Related Listed Companies - The report mentions several related companies including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [1][2]