光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 9 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价再度下挫，其中 WTI 10 月合约收盘下跌 0.49 美元至 | | | | 63.48 美元/桶，跌幅 0.77%。布伦特 11 月合约收盘下跌 0.61 美元 | | | | 至 66.99 美元/桶，跌幅 0.90%。SC2510 以 483.3 元/桶收盘，下跌 | | | | 0.3 元/桶，跌幅为 0.06%。EIA 公布的库存报告显示，截至 8 月 29 | | | | 日当周，美国商业原油库存增加 240 万桶至 4.207 亿桶，此前市 | | | | 场预期为减少 200 万桶。美国 SPR 增加 50 万桶至 4.047 亿桶。美 | | | | 国汽油库存减少 380 万桶至 2.185 亿桶，包括柴油和取暖油的馏 | | | | 分油库存增加 170 万桶至 1.159 亿桶。美国国内原油产量减少 1.6 | | | 原油 | 万桶/日，至 1342.3 万桶/日，四周均值为 1339.3 万桶/日。美国 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Maintain Buy" [5] Core Viewpoints - The oil market is experiencing fluctuations with a focus on the progress of US-Russia negotiations, leading to a decline in oil prices [1] - OPEC+ has been increasing production since May, with a total increase of over 1.2 million barrels per day from May to July, and a significant increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August, marking the highest monthly increase since the Saudi price war in 2020 [2] - Demand forecasts have been adjusted, with IEA lowering its predictions due to weak consumption in emerging markets, while EIA has raised its forecasts for certain countries, indicating a mixed outlook for demand [3] - US crude oil inventories have increased, indicating a shift from drawdown to accumulation [3] Supply Summary - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 550,000 barrels per day in September, aiming to fully restore 2.2 million barrels per day of reduced capacity [2] - IEA and EIA have raised their annual supply increase forecasts to 2.5 million barrels per day and 2.28 million barrels per day, respectively, reflecting a significant upward revision [2] Demand Summary - IEA has downgraded its demand forecast for emerging markets, while EIA has raised its demand forecast for countries like China and the US, indicating a divergence in outlooks [3] - The demand growth forecast for 2025 has been reduced by IEA, marking the lowest increase since 2009, while EIA's forecast has been adjusted upward but still reflects a decline from earlier predictions [3] Price Support Analysis - The average breakeven price for new wells in the US is approximately $65 per barrel, with larger companies having a breakeven price around $61 per barrel [4] - The operational cost range for US oil companies to cover existing well expenses is between $26 and $45 per barrel, indicating potential vulnerabilities if prices fall significantly [4]

原油：多重利好共振，多单、正套持有 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 WTI7 月收涨 3.17 美元/桶，涨幅 4.88%，报 68.15 美元/桶；布伦特 8 月原油期货收涨 2.90 美 元/桶，涨幅 4.33%，报 69.77 美元/桶；SC2507 原油期货收涨 16.20 元/桶，涨幅 3.37%，报 497.40 元/桶。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025 年 6 月 12 日 品 研 究 研 究 所 商 1. EIA 报告：除却战略储备的商业原油库存减少 364.4 万桶至 4.32 亿桶，降幅 0.84%。EIA 报告： 美国原油产品四周平均供应量为 1989.1 万桶/日，较去年同期增加 0.53%。美国能源信息署 （EIA）：最近一周，美国未从沙特进口任何原油，为 2021 年 1 月以来首次。美国至 6 月 6 日 当周 EIA 原油库存 -364.4 万桶，预期-196 万桶，前值-430.4 万桶。美国至 6 月 6 日当周 EIA 俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 -40.3 万桶，前值 57 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil processing industry Core Insights - The report highlights a downward adjustment in the 2025 crude oil inventory forecast by EIA, indicating a more cautious outlook on supply and demand dynamics in the oil market [1][20] Summary by Sections Crude Oil Price Overview - As of April 9, 2025, Brent crude, WTI, Russian ESPO, and Russian Urals prices were $65.48, $62.35, $56.53, and $65.49 per barrel respectively, with month-to-date changes of -5.48% for Brent and -5.57% for WTI [7][8] Crude Oil Inventory - As of April 4, 2025, total U.S. crude oil inventory was 83,905.5 million barrels, with a month-on-month increase of 824.4 million barrels [14][19] - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global crude oil inventory changes for 2025 to be +57.52, +3.11, and -138.23 thousand barrels per day respectively, with an average forecast change of -25.87 thousand barrels per day [20] Crude Oil Supply - The 2025 global crude oil supply forecasts by IEA, EIA, and OPEC are 10,448.69, 10,416.72, and 10,381.77 million barrels per day respectively, reflecting increases from 2024 [26] - For Q1 2025, the predicted year-on-year supply increments are +150.86, +120.55, and +144.82 thousand barrels per day from IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively [26] Crude Oil Demand - The 2025 global crude oil demand forecasts by IEA, EIA, and OPEC are 10,391.17, 10,413.61, and 10,520.00 million barrels per day respectively, with year-on-year increases from 2024 [20] - For Q1 2025, the predicted year-on-year demand increments are +123.54, +188.93, and +144.24 thousand barrels per day from IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively [20] Related Listed Companies - The report mentions several related companies including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [1][2]