Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's foreign exchange market maintained strong resilience and vitality in September, with cross - border capital flows remaining active and balanced, and supply and demand in the foreign exchange market being relatively balanced. The total scale of China's foreign - related payments and receipts in the first three quarters reached a record high [1]. - The prices of crude oil, precious metals, and stock indices showed different trends. Crude oil prices were difficult to reverse the downward trend; precious metals experienced significant adjustments at high levels; stock indices were about to enter a direction - selection stage [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: As of October 21, the total debt of the US federal government exceeded $38 trillion for the first time, just over two months after reaching $37 trillion in mid - August [5]. - **Domestic News**: In September, the unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group in urban China was 17.7%, 7.2% for the 25 - 29 age group, and 3.9% for the 30 - 59 age group [6]. - **Industry News**: In the first three quarters, the total transport turnover, passenger volume, and cargo volume of the civil aviation industry were 1220.3 billion ton - kilometers, 580 million passengers, and 739,500 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 10.3%, 5.2%, and 14% [7]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.53%, the European STOXX 50 index decreased by 0.47%, and the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.10%. ICE Brent crude oil increased by 4.36%, while London gold and silver decreased by 0.64% and 0.46% respectively. Other varieties also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [10]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial Products** - **Stock Indices**: After a high - level shock in September, stock indices were about to enter a direction - selection stage. The domestic liquidity environment was expected to remain loose, and external funds were also likely to flow in. The market style might return to value in the fourth quarter [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank was expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, and there might be reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, which would support the price of treasury bond futures [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 1.65% at night, but the downward trend of oil prices was difficult to reverse [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell 0.13% at night. The operating rate of domestic coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and coastal methanol inventories continued to rise. The methanol market fluctuated more due to various uncertainties [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fluctuated on Wednesday. Supply pressure might gradually emerge, and demand support was relatively limited. The market was expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. After continuous declines, the market sentiment gradually stabilized [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures closed slightly up, and soda ash futures rebounded slightly. Both were in the process of inventory digestion, and the market was still cautious [18][19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices adjusted significantly at high levels. After a rapid rise, there were profit - taking positions, and the driving factors weakened, leading to sharp price adjustments [3][20]. - **Copper**: The supply of copper concentrates remained tight, and the smelting output continued to grow. The Indonesian mine accident might lead to a supply - demand gap in the global copper market, supporting copper prices in the long term [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The smelting output was expected to continue to increase. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices might be weaker than foreign ones, and the overall price might fluctuate within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply increased, demand showed some growth, and inventory decreased. The futures price fluctuated and rose. It was expected to remain volatile in the short term, and the downward adjustment space was limited [23]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The double - coking futures oscillated at night. The steel price and demand showed some improvement, but the possibility of blast furnace production cuts due to shrinking profits could not be ignored. The short - term market was expected to oscillate at a high level [24][25]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices stabilized. The demand for iron ore was supported, and the global iron ore shipment decreased recently. The port inventory decreased rapidly. The market was expected to be strong and fluctuate upward [26]. - **Steel**: Steel prices were stable and improving. The supply pressure was gradually emerging, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not significant. The market was expected to be bullish in the medium term [27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated and rose at night. The US soybean export inspection volume was higher than expected, and the Brazilian soybean planting progress was good. The domestic market was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats prices were weak at night. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil increased, but the market was under pressure due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade [29]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices were weak at night. The global sugar market entered the inventory accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar market was expected to fluctuate in the short term [30]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices oscillated. The US cotton market was in a short - term oscillation. The domestic cotton market was under pressure from weak demand, but the price was supported by factors such as slow harvesting progress and rising purchase prices. It was expected to be strong and fluctuate in the short term [31]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index was strongly oscillating. Maersk's price increase in November indicated its intention to support prices. The market continued to bet on the year - end peak season, and the upward driving force was accumulating. The far - month contract was slowly recovering, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiation [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again, and it is likely to maintain a bullish trend. Domestically, the liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. Externally, with the Fed's interest rate cuts and RMB appreciation, foreign funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme in the current upward market trend, considering the possible intensification of Q4's growth - stabilization policies and the potential resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style in Q4 may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to Q3 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4601.60, 4586.60, 4576.40, and 4555.00 respectively, with increases of 70.60, 73.20, 77.20, and 77.80. The trading volumes were 40430.00, 16606.00, 86223.00, and 12308.00, and the open interests were 35819.00, 24260.00, 160428.00, and 56592.00, with changes of - 9895.00, 5467.00, - 2013.00, and - 848.00 respectively. The increases of the CSI 300 corresponding to these contracts were 1.56%, 1.62%, 1.72%, and 1.74% [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 2999.40, 2998.20, 2997.40, and 2998.40, with increases of 41.00, 46.00, 44.40, and 44.60. The trading volumes were 17842.00, 6567.00, 41717.00, and 5176.00, and the open interests were 13703.00, 6914.00, 63594.00, and 13300.00, with changes of - 5392.00, 1526.00, - 1687.00, and - 796.00 respectively. The increases of the SSE 50 corresponding to these contracts were 1.39%, 1.56%, 1.50%, and 1.51% [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 7278.20, 7196.20, 7140.20, and 6977.00, with increases of 118.40, 124.20, 121.60, and 120.00. The trading volumes were 38456.00, 19428.00, 105607.00, and 19123.00, and the open interests were 34255.00, 32793.00, 141518.00, and 52944.00, with changes of - 9786.00, 5875.00, - 10422.00, and - 2023.00 respectively. The increases of the CSI 500 corresponding to these contracts were 1.65%, 1.76%, 1.73%, and 1.75% [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 7455.80, 7362.60, 7275.20, and 7060.20, with increases of 117.60, 128.20, 126.60, and 134.20. The trading volumes were 55423.00, 28745.00, 178569.00, and 30417.00, and the open interests were 47911.00, 46218.00, 191595.00, and 84507.00, with changes of - 11189.00, 7939.00, - 2448.00, and - 280.00 respectively. The increases of the CSI 1000 corresponding to these contracts were 1.60%, 1.77%, 1.77%, and 1.94% [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 15.00, - 1.20, - 82.00, and - 93.20 respectively, compared to the previous values of - 25.20, - 3.60, - 87.40, and - 110.00 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4606.29, 3001.35, 7294.00, and 7483.45 respectively, with increases of 1.48%, 1.36%, 1.38%, and 1.50%. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 284.77, 63.38, 217.56, and 244.85, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 6073.26, 1571.06, 3974.59, and 4037.98 respectively [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, the increases of energy, raw materials, industry, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, information technology, telecommunications, and public utilities were 0.32%, 1.18%, 1.98%, 1.49%, 0.45%, 1.77%, 1.06%, 2.75%, 1.11%, and - 0.20% respectively [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IF (current month - CSI 300), IF (next month - CSI 300), IF (next quarter - CSI 300), and IF (far - quarter - CSI 300) were - 4.69, - 19.69, - 29.89, and - 51.29 respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of 1.34, - 23.86, - 31.86, and - 52.86 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IH (current month - SSE 50), IH (next month - SSE 50), IH (next quarter - SSE 50), and IH (far - quarter - SSE 50) were - 1.95, - 3.15, - 3.95, and - 2.95 respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of 3.90, 0.30, - 2.70, and - 0.10 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IC (current month - CSI 500), IC (next month - CSI 500), IC (next quarter - CSI 500), and IC (far - quarter - CSI 500) were - 15.80, - 97.80, - 153.80, and - 317.00 respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of - 41.45, - 128.85, - 184.85, and - 350.65 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IM (current month - CSI 1000), IM (next month - CSI 1000), IM (next quarter - CSI 1000), and IM (far - quarter - CSI 1000) were - 27.65, - 120.85, - 208.25, and - 423.25 respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of - 33.15, - 143.15, - 227.35, and - 451.15 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3912.21, 13118.75, 8106.60, and 3025.87 respectively, with increases of 1.22%, 1.73%, 1.77%, and 2.36% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P, and DAX Index were 25910.60, 46847.32, 6671.06, and 24181.37 respectively, with increases of 1.84%, - 2.58%, 0.40%, and - 0.23% [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - The US side said that whether to impose a 100% tariff on China depends on China's actions. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded, urging the US to correct its wrong practices and resolve issues through dialogue and negotiation. China also opposes the EU's protectionist and discriminatory practices in the name of enhancing competitiveness [2] - In September, M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year, M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 reached a new low for the year. In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - In September, China's CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.3% year - on - year. Core CPI increased by 1% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fifth consecutive month and returning to 1% for the first time in nearly 19 months. PPI remained flat month - on - month and decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - In September, the average interest rate of newly issued corporate loans was about 3.1%, about 40 basis points lower than the same period last year, and the average interest rate of newly issued personal housing loans was about 3.1%, about 25 basis points lower than the same period last year [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Six departments including the National Development and Reform Commission issued an action plan to double the service capacity of electric vehicle charging facilities in three years, aiming to build 28 million charging facilities nationwide by the end of 2027, providing over 300 million kilowatts of public charging capacity to meet the charging needs of over 80 million electric vehicles [2] - In September, the trading volume of the national second - hand car market was 1.7944 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.2%, with a trading amount of 110.466 billion yuan [2] - Chengdu expanded the scope of beneficiaries of the "commercial - to - provident" loan policy,取消了本市缴存限制，符合条件的异地缴存人也可申请办理，and all commercial banks that have signed cooperation agreements with the Chengdu Housing Provident Fund Center can participate [2]

Group 1 - The consumption market during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays showed strong growth, with total domestic travel expenditure reaching 809 billion CNY, an increase of 108.19 billion CNY compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Daily sales revenue in consumption-related industries increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with goods and service consumption growing by 3.9% and 7.6% respectively [1] - The market for digital products and automobiles experienced rapid growth during the holiday period [1] Group 2 - Precious metals maintained a strong performance during the holiday but saw a significant decline afterward, likely due to profit-taking from a rapid short-term increase [2] - Geopolitical tensions eased with the announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which may have influenced market sentiment [2] - Concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit and debt continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with central banks, particularly in China, increasing their gold reserves [2] Group 3 - The U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, while the first trading day after the National Day holiday saw a positive opening for stock indices, led by the non-ferrous metals sector [3] - The financing balance decreased by 34.06 billion CNY to 2.37839 trillion CNY as of September 30 [3] - The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, with increased allocation to equity assets by residents and potential inflows of external capital due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Group 4 - The double coke market showed fluctuating trends, with inventory levels remaining stable despite a significant increase in social inventory due to the holiday [4] - The increase in inventory was primarily driven by rebar, and there are concerns about the market's acceptance of high-priced resources post-holiday [4] - Upcoming policy expectations related to "anti-involution" are anticipated to provide support for prices in the double coke market [4] Group 5 - The industrial sector for small and medium enterprises in China showed stable economic performance in the first eight months of the year, with an increase in value-added output of 7.6%, outperforming large enterprises by 3.3 percentage points [8] - The development of specialized and innovative small and medium enterprises has been particularly strong, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in value-added output [8] Group 6 - The National Development and Reform Commission announced measures to regulate price competition and maintain a fair market price order, emphasizing the need for businesses to adhere to fair pricing principles [9]